2014 US Senate: Hawaii

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#26

Post by Suranis » Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:51 am

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#27

Post by No Pilikia » Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:05 am

The most interesting race here will be Abercrombie v Mufi Hanneman (former mayor, Punahou alum & athlete, Harvard grad, former DC staffer) who bailed on the D party & is running as an independent. I think Neil will pull it off but the s*** will hit the fan after the primary.Obama [/break1]me/b516unma]records an ad for Abercrombie. :oops: :oops: :oops: Sorry to my fellow Hawaii Obots but tradition & a lot of other things influenced me & I just had to vote for Hanabusa again. Schatz is a great "kid" ( :lol: Only an old fart/fut/ "aunty" like me would say something like that.) If he wins I know we will sure be in good hands & will support him. I have always admired Hanabusa though &, in spite of my reservations, I voted for her again. bob, the real surprise here is that Abercrombie may not even win the Dem nomination. I must admit that I was shocked at the recent polls showing how far he is behind David Ige, someone who I know so little about. The teachers' union, AFSCME, other gov unions, were pissed at Abercrombie & just want him out. I've supported Neil since the 70's as a UH student. I will be so shocked if he loses & I am concerned that our state would set aside someone with so much experience, in favor of someone who was chosen by the government unions. First print out gives 67% to Ige, 32% to Abercrombie. Wow. If he loses he will be the first HI incumbent to lose in his party's primary.
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#28

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:11 am

U.S. Senator Vacancy - D0 of 245HANABUSA, Colleen Wakako....43,314....49.4%SCHATZ, Brian....................41,312....47.2%EVANS, Brian.......................1,504.....1.7%Blank Votes:........................1,381......1.6Over Votes:............................82......0.1%[/break1]gov/elections/results/2014/primary/elections/results/2014/primary/files/histatewide.pdf]http://hawaii.gov/elections/results/201 ... tewide.pdfReminder: Sen Daniel Inouye was a Class III US Senator. The terms for all Class III Senators will expire Jan 3, 2017 (meaning they will be up for re-election in 2016). YW.

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#29

Post by Lani » Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:21 am

Update: Schatz and Hanabusa separated by 11 votes. :o On my island, the vote was overwhelmingly for Hanabusa. I'm curious about where the sudden the uptick in Schatz votes happened.I'm watching Ige on tv now. He won big on my island. Remembering what I wrote above, I think someone watching him now might think my impression of him in person was nutz. I don't see the same person on tv. But live, he is very present, intense, fully focused.Neil was hit with a gawdawful financial situation when he became governor of Hawaii. I was thrilled when he was elected. He knew Washington, and he brought us a lot of money for projects after the recession hit. He also inherited a budget that was far worse then he or anyone had imagined. I had a clue because I was involved in exposing some shady contracts for outsourcing services by the Lingle administration. He made hard decisions that ultimately brought Hawaii out of the recession faster than most states. For his personal situation, he might have done better for himself by staying in Congress and perhaps running for Senate after the passing of Dan Inouye. He came back, he did a good job for his state. I wish him the best.
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#30

Post by Lani » Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:44 am

Schatz has taken the lead.
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#31

Post by Foggy » Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:49 am

 ! Message from: Foggy
All posts about Ige beating Abercrombie have been moved to the [link]Hawaii governor thread,http://www.thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopi ... 02&t=11263[/link].This thread is about Hawaii's seat in the U.S. Senate. Thank you for your support.
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#32

Post by Lani » Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:50 am

Mahalo!
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#33

Post by Foggy » Sun Aug 10, 2014 5:15 am

Looks like Schatz is (barely) going to pull this one out, from the news reports.
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#34

Post by Lani » Sun Aug 10, 2014 5:51 am

I hope so!
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#35

Post by Foggy » Sun Aug 10, 2014 5:58 am

I think it's over. Note the "245 of 245 precincts reporting".
That's 1,788 votes difference.I think it's over. :-
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#36

Post by June bug » Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:25 am

Not necessarily, Foggy. 245 of 245 polling places open on primary day, BUT two polling places on the Big Island (Hawaii) were closed due to storm damage in the area including roads surrounding the polling places. All registered voters there (approx. 8,000) will be sent ballots and will have up to 21 days after Aug. 9 primary day to return the ballots. Schatz lost on all neighbor islands except Hawaii, where he's ahead by fewer than 400 votes.





The jury's still out on this one and will be for a while yet.

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#37

Post by Foggy » Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:28 am

The jury's still out on this one and will be for a while yet.I defer to your superior wisdom and knowledge, June bug. :hug:
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#38

Post by SPen » Sun Aug 10, 2014 10:13 am

I hope Schatz can pull this one out. Hawaii doesn't need to lose seniority, especially to a woman who could only serve two terms MAX before she retires. Schatz could serve another 40 years and climb to the top of the seniority rankings in order to deliver for his state if he wins this race.

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#39

Post by mimi » Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:38 pm

Chuckles is on the case.Charles C. Johnson @ChuckCJohnsonI'm disappointed that @RepHanabusa didn't call her opponent a sheep shagger. [/break1]com/2013/08/08/hawaii-senator-brian-schatz-involved-in-simulated-sheep-rape-rituals/]http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/08/hawai ... e-rituals/.Charles C. Johnson @ChuckCJohnsonWhy yes I did have a hand in Hawaii...HGTomato @HGTomatoWore a sheep suit? RT @ChuckCJohnson: Why yes I did have a hand in Hawaii... :evil: Daily Caller:Hawaii senator Brian Schatz involved in simulated sheep rape ritualsCharles C. JohnsonU.S. Sen. Brian Schatz once led a fraternity that got into trouble with the law and animal welfare groups for threatening to sodomize a sheep.The Hawaii Democrat, pictured here in the Class of 1994 yearbook, was a senior member of Phi Delta while studying at Pomona College, a small liberal arts school in eastern Los Angeles County.Phi Delta member David Agay ’94 explained that the sheep was used in the fraternity’s initiation rites. Pledges were encouraged to “just give the sheep one poke,” Agay told to the student newspaper at the time, “but … if they tried to touch the sheep, they would be stopped. The pledges that refused to go near the sheep, he continued, were told that they could not join the fraternity.”The pledges were later told that the trial was only a joke and that their refusal to sodomize the sheep did not bar their entry into the fraternity.Agay denied that they did anything wrong but the college’s judicial body disciplined the fraternity and ultimately shut down fraternities entirely.more:[/break1]com/2013/08/08/hawaii-senator-brian-schatz-involved-in-simulated-sheep-rape-rituals/]http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/08/hawai ... e-rituals/

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#40

Post by Lani » Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:55 pm

[/break1]hawaiinewsnow.com/story/26245049/puna-voters-give-edge-to-schatz-in-close-race-with-hanabusa]http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/2624 ... h-hanabusaHONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - A Hawaii News Now analysis of precinct results in the U.S. Senate race showed that U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz holds an edge over U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Puna area of Hawaii island where voters in two precincts still must cast their votes to decide the razor-thin contest. ....... The state Office of Elections decided to delay voting in two precincts because of Friday's storm. About 8,255 voters are registered at the two delayed polling places: Hawaiian Paradise Community Center and Keonepoko Elementary School in Puna. ....... A majority of the Puna residents who voted at the two remaining precincts in Puna's district 4 Saturday supported Schatz, with 739 votes or 55 percent compared to 45 percent of the 603 votes cast for Hanabusa. About 56 percent of the voters in those two precincts – at Pahoa Community Center and Pahoa High and Intermediate School -- voted before Election Day, results released early Sunday showed.Hawaii News Now’s analysis revealed Hanabusa will need to pick up about 65 percent of the remaining votes in those outstanding Puna precincts to beat Schatz. And she was not able to do that anywhere in the state, even in her old State Senate district along Oahu's Leeward Coast.
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#41

Post by Foggy » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:50 am

That's encouraging, Lani. :-bd
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#42

Post by Mikedunford » Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:12 pm

We may be heading to court on this one in the near future. Short version: State elections law permits the state to delay elections on a precinct-by-precinct basis in the event of natural disasters, which is what happened with the two Puna precincts that are still outstanding. For those of you not familiar with Big Island geography, the island is roughly triangular in shape, with points on the north, south, and east sides. Puna is the area around the eastern point. It's an area that most tourists drive past if traveling from Hilo to the volcano. It's on the windward side of the island, so it's heavily vegetated, and there are a lot of tall trees near narrow roads. Puna took the brunt of the storm on Thursday and Friday, and the area definitely has substantial infrastructure issues at the moment. In the event of a postponed election, state law provides several possible ways to make up the missed election, ranging from a one-day election to an extended absentee voting period with no in-person makeup vote. The state has elected to have a one-day makeup on this upcoming Friday. Hanabusa claims - probably rightly - that there is no guarantee that all eligible voters will be able to get through the damaged areas to their polling stations by then, and that many area residents are far more likely to be more focused on recovery and repair than on voting. IMO* the election scheduling is a bloody stupid and ham-handed move by Abercrombie. Given the current margin, it is unlikely that Hanabusa would prevail even if the Puna election is further postponed or replaced by extended absentee voting. Schatz was Abercrombie's lieutenant governor, and there is little doubt in the state as to the outcome Abercrombie would like to see. There is also little doubt that Schatz has the most to gain if turnout is low on Friday. Further postponing the election or replacing it with absentee voting would probably not have changed the outcome, and it would have made a Hanabusa legal challenge that much harder. Instead, they've added "they're trying to suppress your vote" to the Hanabusa campaign's GOTV toolbox. (This kind of ham-handedness is probably a large part of the reason Abercrombie is a soon-to-be-former governor.) *Full disclosure: Hanabusa is an alum of my law school, a number of my friends are heavily involved in her campaign, and I made a small contribution to her early on. I was unhappy and disappointed by how quickly and strongly they decided to go negative, but ultimately wound up (barely) sticking with her. I might not have, but I met Schatz at his campaign opening, and was extremely unimpressed with him. He's young enough that he has time to improve - and I hope he does - but he was utterly lacking in the charisma and presence departments.
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#43

Post by June bug » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:38 pm

FWIW, my two cents below in red on the process issue (not on the candidates themselves):We may be heading to court on this one in the near future.





Short version:


State elections law permits the state to delay elections on a precinct-by-precinct basis in the event of natural disasters, which is what happened with the two Puna precincts that are still outstanding.





For those of you not familiar with Big Island geography, the island is roughly triangular in shape, with points on the north, south, and east sides. Puna is the area around the eastern point. It's an area that most tourists drive past if traveling from Hilo to the volcano. It's on the windward side of the island, so it's heavily vegetated, and there are a lot of tall trees near narrow roads. Puna took the brunt of the storm on Thursday and Friday, and the area definitely has substantial infrastructure issues at the moment.





In the event of a postponed election, state law provides several possible ways to make up the missed election, ranging from a one-day election to an extended absentee voting period with no in-person makeup vote. The state has elected to have a one-day makeup on this upcoming Friday. Hanabusa claims - probably rightly - that there is no guarantee that all eligible voters will be able to get through the damaged areas to their polling stations by then, and that many area residents are far more likely to be more focused on recovery and repair than on voting.


1. The reality is that those same damaged areas will make it difficult, if not impossible, to get absentee ballots to voters quickly and possibly to get them back as well. And, if history is precedent, Kauai held its primary 8 days after Iniki hit in 1992.





IMO* the election scheduling is a bloody stupid and ham-handed move by Abercrombie. Given the current margin, it is unlikely that Hanabusa would prevail even if the Puna election is further postponed or replaced by extended absentee voting. Schatz was Abercrombie's lieutenant governor, and there is little doubt in the state as to the outcome Abercrombie would like to see. There is also little doubt that Schatz has the most to gain if turnout is low on Friday. Further postponing the election or replacing it with absentee voting would probably not have changed the outcome, and it would have made a Hanabusa legal challenge that much harder. Instead, they've added "they're trying to suppress your vote" to the Hanabusa campaign's GOTV toolbox. (This kind of ham-handedness is probably a large part of the reason Abercrombie is a soon-to-be-former governor.)


2. From what I've read, Schatz has the edge in those parts of the Puna district that have already voted. That's not necessarily a predictor of the precincts that haven't, but I think there's quite a bit more than a little doubt that Schatz has the most to gain with lower voter turnout. I'm also not as certain as you that this was Abercrombie-directed, especially since his clout is certainly bound to be reduced at this point, even within his own administration. IMO there's a a good case to be made by the state for not delaying resolution of both this race and Faye Hanohano's Assembly seat race for up to 21 days after ballots can be delivered to voters.





What I do think was ham-handed was the state first saying that it was going to be absentee and then changing it to a one-day election. While I'm not inclined to impute bad motives to them, perception is reality and they surely provided fodder for the Hanabusa campaign.

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#44

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:20 pm

The voting for the Big Island is still scheduled for tomorrow.A judge has denied Rep. Colleen Hanabusa’s request for an emergency temporary restraining order Thursday in 3rd Circuit Court on the Big Island.That means polling will be conducted as planned Friday at Keonepoko Elementary via walk-in, electronic voting.Hanabusa filed a lawsuit against chief elections officer Scott Nago Thursday to stop the primary election on the Big Island.[/break1]com/2014/08/14/judge-big-island-primary-election-will-happen-friday/]http://khon2.com/2014/08/14/judge-big-i ... en-friday/A copy of the complaint is available [/break1]files.wordpress.com/2014/08/hanabusa-vs-nago-complaint.pdf]here. The pdf file is 14.1mb.

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#45

Post by Lani » Sat Aug 16, 2014 1:56 am

In the end, less than half of the registered voters in the storm impacted Puna district actually voted, with total votes coming in under 3000. Just to make things more interesting, 800 uncounted ballots were found on Maui. :roll: The first printout will be made available within the next few minutes and will probably tell us who won the race.
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#46

Post by Lani » Sat Aug 16, 2014 2:08 am

Final results:Schatz 115397Hanabusa 113628
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#47

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sat Aug 16, 2014 2:34 am

I believe the vote by mail option would have been the better choice to make, but then nobody asked me.KHON2 News spoke with residents from Paradise Park, Hawaiian Shores, and Hawaiian Beaches, many of them still struggling without power, and some without water. They said they wanted to vote because they know they can really make a difference, but their day-to-day tasks put this election on the back burner.[/break1]com/2014/08/15/many-puna-residents-too-busy-cleaning-up-after-storm-to-vote/]http://khon2.com/2014/08/15/many-puna-r ... m-to-vote/

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#48

Post by Lani » Sat Aug 16, 2014 2:53 am

I believe the vote by mail option would have been the better choice to make, but then nobody asked me.


KHON2 News spoke with residents from Paradise Park, Hawaiian Shores, and Hawaiian Beaches, many of them still struggling without power, and some without water. They said they wanted to vote because they know they can really make a difference, but their day-to-day tasks put this election on the back burner.


[/break1]com/2014/08/15/many-puna-residents-too-busy-cleaning-up-after-storm-to-vote/]http://khon2.com/2014/08/15/many-puna-r ... m-to-vote/Hanabusa was very, very sad about people not being able to vote and is not ruling out a court challenge. That said, Schatz had a solid lead over her in the Puna district, which she doesn't mention. She might have been able to narrow it if voting was prolonged for 3 weeks for the mail in ballot, which I'm guessing was her goal, but she needed to win with a huge margin to take the election. IOW, it wouldn't have made a difference.





Voting is ridiculously easy in Hawaii. You can sign up for a permanent absentee ballot. The primary ballots were mailed out around July 8th. You can also vote early. (I think for about two weeks, but I don't recall exactly.) ALL candidates urged their followers to vote early because of the hurricane watch. I'm having a little trouble with feeling much sympathy for people who waited until primary election day to vote, if voting and making a difference was so very, very important to them.
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#49

Post by No Pilikia » Sat Aug 16, 2014 3:11 am

Well that's it I guess. Congrats to Sen Schatz & I REALLY,REALLY, hope he is someone who can represent us well in Hawaii. The loss of someone like Dan Inouye as a role model, mentor, leader, has been immense. The spirit of Uncle Dan will always hang over this state, in good ways & bad. No one could ever have lived up to him & the "Greatest Generation" anyway. However, it is now 2014 & we must move ahead for ourselves & our ohana. I wish the best to the new Senator.Sorry for the redundant entry
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#50

Post by Lani » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:21 am

Sorry for the redundant entryIt's worth saying twice. This was an emotional primary election for many people - the state split almost 50-50. Several precincts split exactly 50-50, including the one next to my precinct. JMHO, this primary involved finally letting go of Dan Inouye and moving on. It was very cathartic for many people, and Hanabusa in particular. I'm sorry she lost her congressional seat because of this campaign, but that was her choice. I hope she concedes gracefully and goes on to do great things for our state.
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