US Senate: Montana

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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
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#1

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Wed Feb 20, 2013 8:39 pm

Could we be seeing a potential primary brewing in Montana by popular Ex-Governor Brian Schweitzer?http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... aucus.htmlPPP Did a poll which found Schweitzer beating Baucus pretty handily in a hypothetical primary challenge. In a potential faceoff polling suggests Schweitzer would beat Baucas 54-35. Democratic voters like Baucus 76/18 but Schweitzer enjoys an 86/9 favoribility rating amongst democrats.Schweitzer also leads every potential republican challenger pretty handily. Schweitzer seeing the poll posted it to his facebook pagehttps://www.facebook.com/pages/Brian-Sc ... 4130558149

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#2

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:13 pm

Sen Max Baucus announces he will not seek re-election.Montana Sen. Max Baucus has decided to retire instead of seek re-election next year, a sudden move that caught many colleagues and state Democrats off guard.Democratic sources confirmed the news to CQ Roll Call on Tuesday morning — after which Baucus told reporters he was working to spread word to his staff.“I’ve got people I’ve got to talk to first before I talk to the press, and that includes my staff,” he said. “I’m going to talk to my staff right now. And phone calls I’ve got to make. We’ll be talking later today.”[/break1]rollcall.com/max-baucus-to-retire-in-2014-mtsen/]http://atr.rollcall.com/max-baucus-to-r ... 014-mtsen/

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#3

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:18 pm

This looks like this could open the door for Schweitzer's run. He was certainly polling better.

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#4

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:33 pm

This looks like this could open the door for Schweitzer's run. He was certainly polling better.Former Gov Schweizer's polling numbers weren't bad when he left office.The former governor left office in sound political shape. Polls showed six in 10 Montana voters approved of Schweizer during his final year in office, strong standing to launch a race for the Senate. Specifically, a January 2012 Colorado College poll found 65 percent of registered voters approving and 24 percent disapproving of Schweitzer. The poll was conducted Jan. 2-7, 2012 among 400 registered voters by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Fairbank, Maslin, Maulin, Metz & Associates (D).[/break1]washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/04/23/baucus-retirement-casts-spotlight-on-brian-schweitzer-in-open-race/]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the ... open-race/In real estate it's location; in politics it's timing.The decision by Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) to retire rather than run for reelection in 2014 casts a spotlight squarely on former Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer, a colorful and popular politcian who sports a bolo tie and often speaks of Washington in very unflattering terms. Schweitzer unquestionably represents Democrats’ best chance of holding the Senate seat in conservative-leaning Montana.Colorful appears accurate.Schwietzer has often brushed off talk about joining Congress, even as he’s been viewed as his party’s top potential recruit. “I am not goofy enough to be in the House, and I’m not senile enough to be in the Senate,” he told the Associated Press last year.

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Addie
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#5

Post by Addie » Wed Apr 24, 2013 10:27 am

I always liked Schweitzer. I hope he runs :-bd





From today's [link]Morning Plum,http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu ... advocates/[/link]:





Liberals push Brian Schweitzer to run in Montana: Sources close to former Montana governor Brian Schweitzer say [link]he’s leaning toward running,http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the ... open-race/[/link] for the seat of retiring Max Baucus. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee is already gearing up with a [link]Draft Schweitzer movement,http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/ ... eitzer.com[/link], on the grounds that he is “a bold progressive populist who supports single-payer health care.” The PCCC tells me:





Since yesterday afternoon, over 13,000 people joined the Progressive Change Campaign Committee’s DraftBrianSchweitzer.com campaign, and have donated over $17,500 to a Draft Fund which will go to Schweitzer on Day One of his U.S. Senate campaign in Montana.This is partly driven by progressive relief at the retirement of Baucus, who has steadily voted against the Dem leadership, dragged his feet legislatively in a way that helped embolden opponents of Obamacare, and has a whole constellation of former aides working as lobbyists.Also WaPo: [link]Baucus retires, a grateful nation cheers,http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... story.html[/link]





Never has a politician done so much to lift the prospects of the republic simply by saying goodbye.
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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#6

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:07 pm

Possible contenders for the open US Senate seat:





Former Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT), who lost to Sen Tester (D-MT) last November, is backtracking his not going to run again statement. After losing his Senate campaign Rehberg got himself a [/break1]com/business-a-lobbying/288655-former-rep-rehberg-joins-k-street-firm]gig on "K" Street (Co-Chairman at Mercury/Clark & Weinstock). Becoming a US Senator would involve a huge pay cut.


He [Rehberg] said in January he would definitely not run for office again, and has since taken a job at a Washington-based firm.








Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is likely the Democrats' best hope to run for the seat, and told The Hill earlier this week that he'll weigh a bid.





Rep. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who replaced Rehberg in the House, is also considering a bid, while former state Rep. Corey Stapleton (R) and state Sen. Champ Edmunds (R) are already in the race.





Some Republicans in the state have mentioned former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R) as a possible candidate, while Democrats say if Schweitzer doesn't run, EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock (D) and state Secretary of Public Instruction Denise Juneau (D) are possible options.


[/break1]com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/296353-denny-rehberg-looking-at-another-senate-run]http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/sen ... senate-runUnlike most states since Montana has only 1 US House seat Congressman Daines should be on equal footing (or very near it) with former Gov Racicot in terms of voter recognition.

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#7

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:48 pm

Isn't Baucus partly responsible for the rise of the Tea Party? When he dithered on holding health care hearings, ginning up the RWNJs.

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#8

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:07 pm

The Montana Senate campaign has the potential to be one of the competitive races worth following. It also has the potential for drawing in a lot of out-of-state money.


PPP's newest Montana poll finds that if the top tier candidates for each party get into the Senate race, it will be a toss up.





Three candidates rise to the top in our polling: Brian Schweitzer on the Democratic side and Marc Racicot and Steve Daines on the Republican side. And any match up involving those three candidates would be a toss up. Schweitzer leads Daines 48/45, but trails Racicot by a single point at 47/46. Schweitzer overcomes the GOP lean of the state by leading both of them (Daines 50/39 and Racicot 46/41) with independents. He also has the highest favorability rating of any of the potential candidates at 54/40, followed by Racicot at 43/37, and Daines' approval of 41/33.





Schweitzer would blow both of the Republicans we tested other than Daines and Racicot out of the water. He would have a 52/37 lead over Champ Edmunds and a 52/38 one over Corey Stapleton. Likewise Daines and Racicot would both have substantial leads over the potential Democrats we tested besides Schweitzer- Daines leads Denise Juneau 48/38 and Monica Lindeen 49/37 in hypothetical contests, while Racicot leads Juneau 52/37 and Lindeen 52/35 in head to heads.


[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/06/montana-senate-looks-like-a-toss-up.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#more

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Suranis
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#9

Post by Suranis » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:37 pm

Isn't Baucus partly responsible for the rise of the Tea Party? When he dithered on holding health care hearings, ginning up the RWNJs.He held up the ACA in committee for 3 months, which some think allowed the opposition to galvanise, and he was dead set against singlepayer.
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#10

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sat Jul 13, 2013 3:16 pm

Well nuts!Popular former Gov. Brian Schweitzer said Saturday morning that he will not run for Montana's open U.S. Senate seat in 2014, an announcement that complicates Democratic efforts to retain their majority in next year's elections.Schweitzer told The Associated Press that he doesn't want to leave Montana and go to Washington, D.C.Other Democrats who expressed an interest in running, including State Auditor Monica Lindeen and schools Superintendent Denise Juneau, had been waiting on Schweitzer's decision.Republicans are hopeful that freshman U.S. Rep. Steve Daines will run for the open seat. Some Republicans are also advocating former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot, who served from 1993 to 2001 and later chaired the Republican National Committee.[/break1]ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MONTANA_SENATE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-07-13-13-05-20]http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... 3-13-05-20

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#11

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:36 pm

Seriously schweitzer what's with all the crap with you posting polling data about you on your facebook page then? He's a tease

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#12

Post by SPen » Mon Aug 05, 2013 10:49 pm

Schweitzer's always been a tease. I think he may have really harmed himself with this one though because many in the party don't appreciate him turning his back on the party when it needs him to step up and hold the seat. Today brought some more bad news from MT-SEN: Denise Juneau, State Superintendent of Public Instruction, passed on the race after giving it some thought. Juneau has won two statewide races and her strength with women and Native Americans would have given the Democrats a great chance to hold the seat. The Dems have a surprisingly strong bench in Montana but most of the high-profile candidates have passed: Schweitzer, State Auditor Monica Lindeen, state Supreme Court Chief Justice Mike McGrath, EMILY's List president Stephanie Schriock, and now Juneau.The next two hopeful options would be current-Lieutenant Governor John Walsh and former Lieutenant Governor (and former Republican) John Bohlinger, who has been weighing the possibility of running as an Independent. Neither are ideal but the DSCC pretty much has to take what it can get now because we're getting to the point where our nominee might end up being a random self-funder or "party activist." John Lewis, Baucus' state director, is now also looking at both MT-SEN and MT-AL.We are going to need a whole lot break in our favor to hold this seat.

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#13

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:00 pm

This could have a significant impact in the race for the open Montana US Senate seat in 2014...The White House is set to select outgoing Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) as its pick for ambassador to China, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and a Baucus ally confirmed Wednesday.Assuming Baucus is confirmed sometime in 2014, it means there will be a vacancy in his seat. Gov. Steve Bullock (D) will get to make the appointment for the final year of Baucus's term.Bullock could pick his lieutenant governor, John Walsh, who is already running for the seat in 2014. But Walsh faces a primary against former lieutenant governor John Bohlinger, and governors sometimes opt to pick placeholders who don't intend to run for the seat in order to avoid allegations of favoritism.Rep. Steve Daines is the leading candidate on the GOP side. Republicans have been favored to win the seat in a state that President Obama lost by 13 points in 2012.[/break1]washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/12/18/white-house-to-nominate-baucus-for-ambassador-to-china/]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... -to-china/...unless Gov Bullock selects someone who declines to run.

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#14

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Fri Feb 07, 2014 3:52 pm

Montana Governor Bullock makes his appointment.Montana Gov. Steve Bullock said Friday he has appointed Lt. Gov. John Walsh to serve out the term of Democratic U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, who will be leaving the seat to become the next ambassador to China.Walsh, 53, is a Butte native who spent 33 years in the Montana National Guard, rising to adjutant general in 2008. In 2012, the Democrat resigned from that post to run on the bottom half of the Bullock ticket.Besides Walsh, political newcomer Dirk Adams and former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger also are running for the Democratic nomination. Walsh raised $583,113 in the final three months of 2013 for his campaign, outpacing Adams' $102,975 - $71,000 of which came from Adams himself, Bohlinger brought in $10,000 in donations, plus another $10,000 of his own money.Freshman U.S. Rep. Steve Daines is the early front-runner for the Republican nomination and has raised more money than all the other candidates, with more than $1 million in the final three months of 2013.[/break1]com/news/state-and-regional/montana/lt-gov-john-walsh-chosen-for-baucus-senate-seat/article_26a0cb47-ff95-5ab0-a900-30ccf38efdf6.html]http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-a ... efdf6.htmlNot exactly a big surprise since Gov Bullock has already endorsed his Lt Gov to be the successor to Max Baucus.

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#15

Post by SueDB » Fri Feb 07, 2014 3:58 pm

I always thought it was easier to defend a seat. That was one reason I thought Bill Clinton should have gone early and let Al Gore finish the last year and a half. We would have found out early if Gore had what it took to be Pres.
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#16

Post by SPen » Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:14 pm

That would have been an absolute disaster for Gore, and one of the (many) bad decisions that his presidential campaign made was to run away from Clinton instead of reminding everyone which party was responsible for the favorable conditions of the late-1990s. Getting Walsh into the seat 8 months before Election Day impacts the race but it's not certain whether it will help or hurt. This will provide some benefit because fundraising will get better and Harry Reid will likely set Walsh up to look like an independent voice and vote by allowing him to cast inconsequential votes against national party proposals. This may also finally chase Bohlinger out of the primary and let Walsh campaign to keep some seniority for the state by returning to Washington.But this move could come with a potential drawback because the Republicans will now attempt to characterize Walsh as a creature of Washington, even though their candidate was sent to Washington in 2012 as the state's lone House Rep. I think this development is a net positive but we'll have to see how Walsh handles his new job once he's sworn in on Tuesday.

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#17

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:18 pm

I believe this may be Sen Walsh's first advertisement for election to the Senate. If so, that would explain the warm and fuzzy approach.The right wing super pacs are going to require more than "feel good" responses.

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#18

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:22 pm

A steaming pile of ho hum.(He could also use Bill Walton's speech therapist.)

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#19

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:31 pm

I realized months ago South Dakota would likely be won by a Republican. It appears unless something drastic happens I can add Montana to the same list; blue seat flipped red.[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Montana/USSenateMT2014-06-12a_zps23e14c93.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... e14c93.jpg[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Montana/USSenateMT2014-06-12b_zpsecee81ca.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... ee81ca.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_walsh-4190.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4190.html

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#20

Post by mimi » Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:29 pm

We really need to start doing some opposition research at The Fogbow. :evil: On a lot of races.

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#21

Post by kate520 » Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:18 pm

:yeah: :yeah: :yeah:
DEFEND DEMOCRACY

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#22

Post by SPen » Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:57 pm

I realized months ago South Dakota would likely be won by a Republican. It appears unless something drastic happens I can add Montana to the same list; blue seat flipped red.[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Montana/USSenateMT2014-06-12a_zps23e14c93.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... e14c93.jpg[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Montana/USSenateMT2014-06-12b_zpsecee81ca.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... ee81ca.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_walsh-4190.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4190.htmlThe race is going to tighten because the Democrats have a high floor in the state, but I don't know if Walsh can do enough to take the lead.

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#23

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:19 pm

Real Clear Politics has added just 1 poll to those shown in the above post. Public Policy Polling has Congressman Steve Daines leading Sen John Walsh 46-39.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_walsh-4190.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4190.html

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#24

Post by SPen » Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:24 am

Real Clear Politics has added just 1 poll to those shown in the above post. Public Policy Polling has Congressman Steve Daines leading Sen John Walsh 46-39.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_walsh-4190.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4190.htmlIt was a welcome sight because the race is criminally under-polled. To maximize the boost of PPP's numbers that show the race tightening, Walsh's campaign released an internal that placed the race at 43%-38% with a narrower Daines lead. Walsh still has some room to grow because he's still at a name recognition disadvantage. The best that we can hope for is that this race plays exactly how the 2010 Colorado contest did: an appointed Senator (in that case Michael Bennet) looks to be a goner but becomes more and more competitive the closer we get to Election Day. If Walsh can continue improving on his fundraising, close the name recognition gap, and make the race about an ideal set of issues then he can make the race even tighter. He's not out of this yet.

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#25

Post by mimi » Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:48 pm

Walsh is in some trouble today.





This is serious.





Montana Democrat’s Thesis Presented Others’ Work as His Own


Senator John Walsh of Montana Confronts Questions of Plagiarism





By JONATHAN MARTINJULY 23, 2014





[/break1]nytimes.com/2014/07/24/us/politics/montana-senator-john-walsh-plagiarized-thesis.html]http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/24/us/po ... hesis.html





ETA: Graphic by NYT:





https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtQPo87IAAA-dhf.png:large








Also boobs. :roll:





Montana Lt. Gov. "Accidentally" Liked Picture Of Breasts On Facebook — Then Quickly Scrubbed His Account


[/break1]buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/montana-lt-gov-liked-picture-of-breasts-on-facebook-then-qui]http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/monta ... k-then-qui

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