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Covid-19 Numbers

We have ALL your misinformation, plus some TRUE FACTS and SCIENCE.
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Slarti the White
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#151

Post by Slarti the White »

Notaperson wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 10:12 pm
Gov. Ron DeSantis has downplayed the surge, insisting it was seasonal and would soon recede. But a University of South Florida epidemiologist told the New York Times that in Florida, the peak of the current surge is likely a month away.

"Short term and long term, the cases are going to explode," Edwin Michael, a professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida, in Tampa, told the newspaper. "We are predicting that the cases will be peaking the first week of September."
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news ... 481224001/

So if the scientist, rather than the governor, turns out to be correct, how many Florida Covid hospitalizations could we see in early September?

Slarti, care to calculate an estimate for us? :cantlook:
About 300,000.
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Notaperson
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#152

Post by Notaperson »

Slarti the White wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:23 am
Notaperson wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 10:12 pm
Gov. Ron DeSantis has downplayed the surge, insisting it was seasonal and would soon recede. But a University of South Florida epidemiologist told the New York Times that in Florida, the peak of the current surge is likely a month away.

"Short term and long term, the cases are going to explode," Edwin Michael, a professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida, in Tampa, told the newspaper. "We are predicting that the cases will be peaking the first week of September."
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news ... 481224001/

So if the scientist, rather than the governor, turns out to be correct, how many Florida Covid hospitalizations could we see in early September?

Slarti, care to calculate an estimate for us? :cantlook:
About 300,000.
:shock:
I don't know whether you are being flippant, or you misread the question. It's going to be very bad, but not that bad.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#153

Post by Slarti the White »

Notaperson wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:30 am
Slarti the White wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:23 am
Notaperson wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 10:12 pm
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news ... 481224001/

So if the scientist, rather than the governor, turns out to be correct, how many Florida Covid hospitalizations could we see in early September?

Slarti, care to calculate an estimate for us? :cantlook:
About 300,000.
:shock:
I don't know whether you are being flippant, or you misread the question. It's going to be very bad, but not that bad.
Sorry, that would be the national number for a peak in new cases in early September. If Florida is still 25% of that, it would be about 75K. Looking at the last two weekly reports by Florida (they're no longer reporting daily numbers apparently) I get about 107K new cases per day in early September. On the website I look at Florida hasn't reported any deaths since July 17, so I've got no clue what that looks like, but if they're averaging around 100 deaths per day (a number I saw somewhere in the past week) and that grows exponentially as well, we're talking about something approaching 700 deaths per day. Take these numbers with a HUGE grain of salt - there' not really even "back of the envelope" calculations given the paucity of the data.
Edit: I'm not even going to try to answer the question about hospitalizations - that number simply can't keep growing exponentially. Which probably means actual deaths will be higher (due to lack of medical care) and reported deaths will be lower (due to lack of medical care). A lot depends on the virulence of the delta variant in unvaccinated people, something that isn't known (at least by me). The fatality rate seems lower than it was in the last wave, but there's no way to determine how much of that is due to the delta variant's intrinsic mortality rate and how much is due to vaccine protection. We're pretty much flying blind here due to lack of reliable and consistent data reporting, something that certainly helps those with an anti-vax/anti-mask/anti-government agenda.
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Notaperson
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#154

Post by Notaperson »

Over the past few days I've seen reports from the worst hit states of hospital workers walking away from their jobs. Here's one from Arkansas...

Arkansas hospital exec says health care workers are walking off the job amid spike in COVID-19 cases
Health care workers in Arkansas are starting to walk off the job as instances of short staffing and burnout continue to increase in the state.

Cam Patterson, chancellor of University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, told CNN that several staff members have left their post in the middle of a shifts and some are considering retiring early as they struggle to cope with the demands that the coronavirus and its variants are placing on them.

"Teams are stretched thin. People are frustrated. People are very tired," Patterson said, noting that morale among health care workers has been low. "We are down a significant number of positions here because we just don't have enough nurses that we can recruit to come here and help us to take care of patients."
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... ff-the-job
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Notaperson
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#155

Post by Notaperson »

Over 500 new covid hospitalizations in FL since yesterday.

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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#156

Post by Slarti the White »

Notaperson wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:27 pm Over 500 new covid hospitalizations in FL since yesterday.

You don't need a statistical prediction to tell you that this is getting really bad. The new hospitalizations are about 3% of the new cases. Since hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, the actual hospitalization rates are probably higher. I don't see any way for Florida's health care system to handle this or for any intervention to help reduce the strain quickly. To have an effect given the scale of the problem it would probably take something like martial law and a lockdown with both vaccine and mask mandates. Which seems pretty much impossible politically.

This is a real-time example of catastrophe theory playing out. If you keep putting stress on a system it eventually breaks, no matter how strong it is.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#157

Post by neonzx »

Slarti the White wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:56 pm
Notaperson wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:27 pm Over 500 new covid hospitalizations in FL since yesterday.
You don't need a statistical prediction to tell you that this is getting really bad. The new hospitalizations are about 3% of the new cases. Since hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, the actual hospitalization rates are probably higher. I don't see any way for Florida's health care system to handle this or for any intervention to help reduce the strain quickly. To have an effect given the scale of the problem it would probably take something like martial law and a lockdown with both vaccine and mask mandates. Which seems pretty much impossible politically.

This is a real-time example of catastrophe theory playing out. If you keep putting stress on a system it eventually breaks, no matter how strong it is.
It's a little scary. Our students (K-12) first day is August 10. One district, the entire county... 85,000+ students. No mask mandates because DeathSantis will defund us.
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Notaperson
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#158

Post by Notaperson »

Yeah, it has really sunk in for me just how much trouble Florida is in for in the next few weeks. I don't live there, but was born and raised and still have lots of family and old friends there, so it's going to be heartbreaking.

From what I can tell, the media in FL is giving the crisis increasing attention. So hopefully Floridians will change their behavior to a degree to slow things down somewhat. Still, it's hard to imagine that covid hospitalizations won't approach 20,000 by the end of August, if not sooner. Utterly terrifying.

Anyway, I've read that at least few school districts there are considering defying the governor and implementing mask mandates.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#159

Post by Slarti the White »

neonzx wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 2:07 pm It's a little scary. Our students (K-12) first day is August 10. One district, the entire county... 85,000+ students. No mask mandates because DeathSantis will defund us.
Yeah, you're pretty much headed into a storm without any way to steer the ship or protect the passengers (and leaders that make the crew of the Titanic look like the crew of the Enterprise). At this point it seems like the best hope is to get the numbers regarding the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated for hospitalizations and death out there and show the effects of the decisions that DeSantis and others are making while there's still time to mitigate the damage. Which I admit isn't very much when you're watching a petri dish with 85K children playing Russian roulette. I guess all you can do is your best and trust that it will make a difference somehow. I do believe that progress comes out of crisis and that Dr. King was right about the moral arc of the universe bending towards justice - but that doesn't make it any easier to have patience when innocent people are suffering from the selfish choices of others.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#160

Post by Slarti the White »

Notaperson wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 2:39 pm Yeah, it has really sunk in for me just how much trouble Florida is in for in the next few weeks. I don't live there, but was born and raised and still have lots of family and old friends there, so it's going to be heartbreaking.

From what I can tell, the media in FL is giving the crisis increasing attention. So hopefully Floridians will change their behavior to a degree to slow things down somewhat. Still, it's hard to imagine that covid hospitalizations won't approach 20,000 by the end of August, if not sooner. Utterly terrifying.

Anyway, I've read that at least few school districts there are considering defying the governor and implementing mask mandates.
Can hospitalizations reach 20,000? Exponential growth only continues until some rate limiting factor kicks in - like running out of beds or staff walking off the job because they've been pushed beyond their limits. I don't know what the Florida medical system can handle, but I've got the feeling that we're going to find out...
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Notaperson
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#161

Post by Notaperson »

True enough. Perhaps I should have said "persons with covid needing hospitalizations," to account for some number who will need hospitalization but won't get it.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#162

Post by raison de arizona »

Slarti the White wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:03 pm
Notaperson wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 2:39 pm Yeah, it has really sunk in for me just how much trouble Florida is in for in the next few weeks. I don't live there, but was born and raised and still have lots of family and old friends there, so it's going to be heartbreaking.

From what I can tell, the media in FL is giving the crisis increasing attention. So hopefully Floridians will change their behavior to a degree to slow things down somewhat. Still, it's hard to imagine that covid hospitalizations won't approach 20,000 by the end of August, if not sooner. Utterly terrifying.

Anyway, I've read that at least few school districts there are considering defying the governor and implementing mask mandates.
Can hospitalizations reach 20,000? Exponential growth only continues until some rate limiting factor kicks in - like running out of beds or staff walking off the job because they've been pushed beyond their limits. I don't know what the Florida medical system can handle, but I've got the feeling that we're going to find out...
According to this, FL's max hospital bed capacity is 54,744. I would expect them to be limited by other things, such as nursing staff, prior to maxing out the beds. I guess.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#163

Post by RTH10260 »

raison de arizona wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:11 pm :snippity:
According to this, FL's max hospital bed capacity is 54,744. I would expect them to be limited by other things, such as nursing staff, prior to maxing out the beds. I guess.
Also too bed is not equal to bed. Beds in specialized clinics are not available for emergency use by covid patients. Think of cancer or burn patients. Those wards cannot be closed and rededicated. Also too geographical problems, eg a hospital ward down in the Keys will not help to solve scarce beds in Miami. Whole wards need to be redirected to assist in covid cases only, no mixing of patients.

PS. what ahppened with all those ventilators from last year? Are the still allocated where need is? Were surplus units sold off, donated to hospitals elsewhere, possibly sent overseas?
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#164

Post by tek »

There is some churn on the school masking stuff in FL..

Four counties are in varying stages of defying the ban, and apparently the state education board is considering (or has approved) and emergency measure to provide vouchers for parents to send their kids to non-masked districts if their district imposes a mandate.

we are waaaaaay thru the looking glass..
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#165

Post by AndyinPA »

Do anything as long as it's not the right thing.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#166

Post by filly »

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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#167

Post by filly »

Florida recorded a staggering number of new coronavirus infections Friday, its highest of the pandemic: 23,903. It’s the third time this week the state has broken its record for daily new cases, according to the Orlando Sun-Sentinel.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/florida-b ... 3?ref=home
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#168

Post by sugar magnolia »

Baton Rouge General Medical Center

Today, we have surpassed the most COVID-positive patients we have ever had in our hospital. The previous high of 169 was on April 26, 2020. Our team is in the midst of their toughest fight against the virus thus far.

Image
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#169

Post by Lani »

Delta continues to rage here. You'd think that more people would realize that we reopened too fast and too far. Well, I guess that can be said about all of the states...

People are lining up for testing.
wait line.png
wait line.png (318.11 KiB) Viewed 1296 times

Rates keep climbing.
Screenshot 2021-08-07 at 14-26-07 Hawaii sees 615 new infections.png
Screenshot 2021-08-07 at 14-26-07 Hawaii sees 615 new infections.png (81.71 KiB) Viewed 1296 times
People used to rant that our rates were so low we didn't need restrictions to prevent spread. And now we know what happens when people drop their guard.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#170

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#171

Post by bill_g »

Sugar's number show that less than only one in ten hospitalizations are vax'd, and that only one on twenty vax'd require greater care.

Mr. V's number shows that less than five in ten thousand vax'd will die.

Current national vax'd infection rate is about one in twenty five thousand.

So stated differently, if you're vax'd, you have a 1:250,000 chance of needing hospitalization, 1:500,000 chance of requiring advanced care, and a 1:25,000,000 chance of dying.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#172

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#173

Post by Volkonski »



Did I mention things are bad in Texas?
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#174

Post by Slarti the White »

bill_g wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 10:58 am Sugar's number show that less than only one in ten hospitalizations are vax'd, and that only one on twenty vax'd require greater care.

Mr. V's number shows that less than five in ten thousand vax'd will die.

Current national vax'd infection rate is about one in twenty five thousand.

So stated differently, if you're vax'd, you have a 1:250,000 chance of needing hospitalization, 1:500,000 chance of requiring advanced care, and a 1:25,000,000 chance of dying.
Um... no.

First off, the death rate in the stat Mr. V posted is 2.24 in 1,000 and it is incredibly misleading (since most of those deaths occurred before vaccines were available). Secondly, there are a boatload of assumptions in how you are creating and combining those statistics which are neither realistic nor reasonable. Just your top line number (1 in 25,000,000 chance of dying) would mean that the expected number of deaths in Alabama was one-fifth of a person and we know it was 26 (over an unknown and ever increasing pool of vaccinated people). To see how wrong this is, correcting your 1 in 25,000,000 for your mistake regarding the stat of deaths in Alabama gives a number of 1 in 5,000,000. Which is to say that Alabama, with a population about about 5,000,000, should have about 1 vaccinated death (and the US as a whole should have about 70). Just going off of the Alabama numbers says your odds of dying if vaccinated are about 1 in 200,000 and they will only be going up (as more vaccinated people die). Comparing that to total deaths in Alabama (which is REALLY BAD PRACTICE, statistically speaking), the odds of an unvaccinated person dying of COVID since the beginning of the pandemic is about 1 in 430. Combining these says you are about 500 times more likely to die if you are unvaccinated, which is a HUGE overstatement. Dr. Fauci said that 99% of the people who died in May were unvaccinated, so, at that point, you were about 100 times more likely to die if you weren't vaccinated and that number is only going to FALL as more people get vaccinated and succumb to breakthrough infections. Think about it this way: if 100% of the people were vaccinated, 100% of the deaths would be amongst vaccinated people.

About one in 700 (unvaccinated) Americans has died since the beginning of the pandemic. To compare the death rate among vaccinated persons to that we would have to convert that number to unvaccinated person years per death (i.e. how many years it would take before an average person living through the pandemic would die) - which is a doable, back-of-the-envelope calculus problem - AND compute the same number for vaccinated people, which would mean integrating the vaccination rate to determine the total number of vaccine-days and knowing the total number of deaths amongst the vaccinated. The CDC might have enough data to make a guess as to that, but it would be difficult and require any number of simplifying assumptions that would increase the uncertainty substantially.

Anyway, remember what Thomas Jefferson said: "There are lies, dammed lies, and statistics."
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#175

Post by sugar magnolia »

Volkonski wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:05 pm
No surprise. We have the lowest rate of vaccinations in the country, and the highest rate of absolute, unmitigated idiots.
Your next post says Austin is down to 6 ICU beds. The entire state of MS was reporting that same number last Wed. I'd be really surprised if we have any at this point, but our reporting sucks whale dick. Don't want to make Gov. Tater Tot look bad, donchaknow.


ETA: But we do love us some Dr. Dobbs. Dr. Byers, too, but I don't think he tweets.
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