The upcoming recession.

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Slim Cognito
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#26

Post by Slim Cognito »

He wants the interest on his millions-in-dollars loans reduced but the people who mortgaged their lives for a higher education can suck it.
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Addie
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#27

Post by Addie »

Foreign Policy (Oct 2 2019) - Keith Johnson
Rumblings of Recession Get Louder

With U.S. manufacturing taking its worst hit since the Great Recession, signs of a global economic downturn are everywhere.


What appeared as distant rumblings of economic trouble have in recent weeks turned into a stampede, with most major indicators pointing to a generalized, global economic slowdown. Most recently, the key U.S. manufacturing index hit its lowest point in more than a decade, a sign of how U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars have become a self-inflicted wound that threatens to send the economy into a tailspin just in time for his reelection campaign.

The Trump administration likes to boast about the strength of the U.S. economy—one of the few successes the administration has arguably had in nearly three years in office—given near record-low levels of unemployment, steady GDP growth, and a buoyant stock market. In reality, Trump’s concerted effort to turn back globalization, upend global supply chains, and levy tariffs on almost all major trading partners has sown uncertainty throughout the U.S. and global economies, with disastrous consequences for the manufacturing workers and farmers who helped vote him into office.

“There is a global slowdown in manufacturing, and I do think it’s related to Trump’s war on trade,” said Richard Baldwin, a professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva. “It’s not just an issue between the U.S. and China, but between the U.S. and Europe, between the U.S. and its NAFTA partners, and between the U.S. and Japan as well.”

Trump administration officials such as White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow blame the media for talking up a recession, but in reality it’s manufacturers who are talking about falling orders—especially for exports—and bulging warehouses, sending the U.S. purchasing managers’ index to its lowest level since the depths of the Great Recession a decade ago. Of the 18 manufacturing sectors tracked by the index, 15 showed contraction in the latest survey; in some sectors, such as metal firms hammered by Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, bankruptcies have begun. Farm bankruptcies, collateral damage from Trump’s trade war with China, have been rising for a year.

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Addie
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#28

Post by Addie »

New York Times - Nelson D. Schwartz
Coronavirus Recession Looms, Its Course ‘Unrecognizable’

The U.S. economic outlook darkens daily, with millions facing unemployment and businesses in a steep decline.


The American economy is facing a plunge into uncharted waters.

Economists say there is little doubt that the nation is headed into a recession because of the coronavirus pandemic, with businesses shutting down and Americans being shut in. But it is harder to foresee the bottom and how long it will take to climb back.

Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, says the economy is assured of a recession — at least two consecutive quarters of economic decline — with output falling 0.4 percent in the first quarter and 12 percent in the second. That would be the biggest quarterly contraction on record, but Goldman Sachs upped the ante on Friday, saying it expected a 24 percent drop in the second quarter.

“This is not just a blip,” Mr. Daco s said of the outlook. “We’ve never experienced something like this.”

The abruptness of the descent — and the near-lockdown of major cities — is unheard-of in advanced economies, more akin to wartime privation than to the downturn that accompanied the financial crisis more than a decade ago, or even the Great Depression.
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RTH10260
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#29

Post by RTH10260 »

Hmmm - so the Republicans will once again leave a strained economy to the Democrats to fix one more time :?: :think:

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Re: The upcoming recession.

#30

Post by kate520 »

:yeah: :yeah:
DEFEND DEMOCRACY

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Frater I*I
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#31

Post by Frater I*I »

RTH10260 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:19 pm
Hmmm - so the Republicans will once again leave a strained economy to the Democrats to fix one more time :?: :think:
All of this has happened before....and all of this will happen again...

again...

again...
Gazer Into the SovCit Abyss

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MN-Skeptic
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#32

Post by MN-Skeptic »

Considering how great Trump believes himself to be, I propose that the coming recession be called The Great Trump Recession.
MAGA - Morons Are Governing America

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pipistrelle
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#33

Post by pipistrelle »

MN-Skeptic wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:35 pm
Considering how great Trump believes himself to be, I propose that the coming recession be called The Great Trump Recession.
The Great Trump Depression, which some of us have been in since Election Night.

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Re: The upcoming recession.

#34

Post by MN-Skeptic »

pipistrelle wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:02 pm
MN-Skeptic wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:35 pm
Considering how great Trump believes himself to be, I propose that the coming recession be called The Great Trump Recession.
The Great Trump Depression, which some of us have been in since Election Night.
:yeah:
MAGA - Morons Are Governing America

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Atticus Finch
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#35

Post by Atticus Finch »

A bank in West Virginia failed. I have a gut feeling that we will see more bank failures in the coming months. Out of work people can't make their mortgage payments. Businesses will not be able to make loan payments. It is going to be a perfect storm.

Remember FDIC will only insured deposits for individuals up to $250,000 per type of account. For example, a person with individual account will be insured up to $250,000. As for joint accounts, FDIC will insured up to $250,000 per co-owner, i.e. two people $500,000 three people $750,000.

A married couple can be insured up to $1,000,000 by doing the following: Husband, individual account, $250,000; wife, individual account, $250,000; husband and wife, joint account, $500,000.

More info: fdic.gov.

Be Safe

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Addie
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#36

Post by Addie »

New York Mag - Eric Levitz: Why Our Economy May Be Headed for a Decade of Depression ...


A decade later, “Dr. Doom” is a bear once again. While many investors bet on a “V-shaped recovery,” Roubini is staking his reputation on an L-shaped depression. The economist (and host of a biweekly economic news broadcast) does expect things to get better before they get worse: He foresees a slow, lackluster (i.e., “U-shaped”) economic rebound in the pandemic’s immediate aftermath. But he insists that this recovery will quickly collapse beneath the weight of the global economy’s accumulated debts. Specifically, Roubini argues that the massive private debts accrued during both the 2008 crash and COVID-19 crisis will durably depress consumption and weaken the short-lived recovery. Meanwhile, the aging of populations across the West will further undermine growth while increasing the fiscal burdens of states already saddled with hazardous debt loads. Although deficit spending is necessary in the present crisis, and will appear benign at the onset of recovery, it is laying the kindling for an inflationary conflagration by mid-decade. As the deepening geopolitical rift between the United States and China triggers a wave of deglobalization, negative supply shocks akin those of the 1970s are going to raise the cost of real resources, even as hyperexploited workers suffer perpetual wage and benefit declines. Prices will rise, but growth will peter out, since ordinary people will be forced to pare back their consumption more and more. Stagflation will beget depression. And through it all, humanity will be beset by unnatural disasters, from extreme weather events wrought by man-made climate change to pandemics induced by our disruption of natural ecosystems.

Roubini allows that, after a decade of misery, we may get around to developing a “more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order.” But, he hastens to add, “any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive” the hard times to come.

Intelligencer recently spoke with Roubini about our impending doom.
"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver

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JohnPCapitalist
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#37

Post by JohnPCapitalist »

Addie wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:35 am
New York Mag - Eric Levitz: Why Our Economy May Be Headed for a Decade of Depression ...


A decade later, “Dr. Doom” is a bear once again. While many investors bet on a “V-shaped recovery,” Roubini is staking his reputation on an L-shaped depression. The economist (and host of a biweekly economic news broadcast) does expect things to get better before they get worse: He foresees a slow, lackluster (i.e., “U-shaped”) economic rebound in the pandemic’s immediate aftermath. But he insists that this recovery will quickly collapse beneath the weight of the global economy’s accumulated debts.

Roubini allows that, after a decade of misery, we may get around to developing a “more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order.” But, he hastens to add, “any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive” the hard times to come.

Intelligencer recently spoke with Roubini about our impending doom.
I would encourage reading this article. I have read Roubini's work for many years, and his thinking is generally right on. It was abundantly clear from the first reports of the virus that the "v-shaped recovery" people were on drugs, so nobody really believed them... Wall Street generally thinks we're in trouble, but most people prefer to act privately on negative beliefs rather than trumpeting them.

Roubini has often been right about the shape of what's happening, even if he has also overestimated the magnitude of the calamity. That's not to say he is wrong this time -- it's just that the depth of the doom hasn't been as bad as he has said.

Like him, I'm also worried about corporate debt levels and about personal income. There's also the ticking mortgage time bomb -- both residential and commercial -- that haven't yet fully fired. Some huge percentage of people didn't pay May rent in addition to not paying April rent, and a high percentage of NY commercial tenants didn't pay April rent on offices, stores and restaurants. There's not a lot of margin for nonpayment of rent before commercial real estate operators are defaulting. And we didn't see much of a bust in commercial real estate a decade ago, but now we might for the first time in 30-40 years.

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Re: The upcoming recession.

#38

Post by Grumpy Old Guy »

This from a guy with no claim to economics knowledge:

While I hope that future results are not as dire as some have predicted, it seems clear that world economies will not be returning to 2019 levels or patterns for a long time.

Companies and individuals who do not pay rent are a significant downer to current real estate investments and the trend to online work will affect future office space needs, transportation and the value of downtown residential property.

Some people who have money now will not be ready to spend because they are still nervous about their financial futures. A few will be able to drive hard bargains.

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Addie
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Re: The upcoming recession.

#39

Post by Addie »

Cross-posting
WaPo: Analysis | The Finance 202: The Fed has bracing news for anyone expecting a sharp economic rebound


The Federal Reserve just tossed a glass of cold water in the face of anyone predicting a swift economic recovery.

The ongoing crisis brought on by the pandemic shutdowns has caused “steep" job losses, with activity “falling sharply” across the map, the central bank’s latest survey of economic conditions on the ground finds.

And business owners report their outlook for the recovery remains “highly uncertain” and most are pessimistic about the trajectory of the rebound, according to the Fed’s new beige book, which collects anecdotal information from a wide swath of business owners around the country.

The report, covering six weeks of activity through May 18, offers a snapshot of an economy in the teeth of a shock whose scale and duration remain unknown. It is a bracing reminder that as some Americans take advantage of easing restrictions to resume working and spending — and the stock market continues to rally — the economic wound remains open.
"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver

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