How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

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How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#1

Post by Orlylicious » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:38 pm

Since the beginning, it seemed like the whole Donald phenomenon was a house of cards. Inept, unfit, inexperienced, bull headed, foolhardy are some of the personality disorders of Donald and the awful low level staff he's been able to keep.

But people were angry and wanted to send a message to Washington. They did.

But now the house of cards seems to be falling pretty quickly, from the economy to new Russian hostilities to fighting with our allies so there aren't any backstops for US policy. And comparing our Fed chief to the communist dictator of China. It's nuts and exhausting.

It's always seemed to me that if Donald started to go down, it would snowball and his polling would drop like a rock. How long will farmers put up with not only short term pain, but also the long term impact of losing those markets? How long will investors put up with the drama? How long will people put up with the incompetence and bullshit? Are we there yet?

I think Democrats need to stay out of the way. 2016 featured almost no policy and 2020 is going to be a repeat from Donald's perspective. Instead of big, huge, controversial changes, I hope our candidates focus on getting into office and then look at the circumstances.


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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#2

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:56 pm

'licious -- racism and Christian hegemony remain great motivators. Those hurt badly by the economy will stick by Trump because the collapse of the economy will be the fault of the international banksters and Trump was just trying to rein China in.

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#3

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:17 pm

I'd been fairly certain the "trump will never leave office voluntarily" hubbub was hyperbole. Now I'm not so sure.

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#4

Post by Maybenaut » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:26 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:56 pm
'licious -- racism and Christian hegemony remain great motivators. Those hurt badly by the economy will stick by Trump because the collapse of the economy will be the fault of the international banksters and Trump was just trying to rein China in.
:yeah:

They don’t care. In order to care, they’d have to know. And they don’t know because the only information they seek is that which supports their worldview.

So I’m not all that sanguine that Trump is going to go down, let alone go down hard. The Trump suports are going to turn out in droves. I hope those opposed to him do the same, but if past is prologue...
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#5

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:36 pm

Yabbut... sometimes it seems like Trump doesn't want a second term. I mean, how else to explain his recent statement about gutting Medicare being a "fun second-term project?" :think:
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#6

Post by Maybenaut » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:46 pm

RoadScholar wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:36 pm
Yabbut... sometimes it seems like Trump doesn't want a second term. I mean, how else to explain his recent statement about gutting Medicare being a "fun second-term project?" :think:
I didn’t think he wanted a first term.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#7

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:05 pm

We will see... from Erick Erickson's The Resurgent:
August 27th, 2019
Swing State Polling Shows Nightmare For Republicans
Trump has gone from net positive to negative in nine states that he won in 2016.
by David Thornton

President Trump’s approval rating isn’t exactly in a freefall, but the president’s popularity is declining. Even worse for Mr. Trump’s reelection chances, the problem seems to be worst in must-win battleground states. One of the few regular polls that breaks down presidential approval to the state level, where it really matters for elections, is the Morning Consult poll that is released monthly. The numbers for July were recently released and they are not pretty for Donald Trump, particularly when it comes to the Rust Belt and the traditional swing states.

Axios puts the poll data into a handy chart that is the stuff of nightmares for Republican leaders. Looking back to January 2017, Axios found no less than 15 states in which President Trump’s approval has gone from net positive to negative. In nine of those states (in order of highest disapproval to least: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, and Iowa), the president’s net disapproval is in double digits. In another four states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, and Virginia), Trump’s net disapproval is greater than the margin of error for the poll. Additionally, in Florida and North Carolina Trump has gone from a double-digit positive to a one-point negative, making both states tossups if the election were held today.

Further, polling data for Georgia and Texas shows problems for the president as well. While both states show Trump with net positive approval, Georgia is just outside the margin of error with a two-point edge for the president while Texas shows a positive six points. The two states were at net 18 and 21-point positives for Trump in January 2017.

There were no states where Trump approval increased in the same time period. Even in Alabama, the Trumpiest state in the Union, the data showed a one-point decline in the president’s approval, which translates into a change in net approval of negative 10 points. Of the states where Trump’s approval has gone from positive to negative, nine (Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine (where Trump won one of three electoral votes), Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) are states that Trump won in 2016. Even assuming that North Carolina and Florida might remain in the Republican column, the shift of the other swing states would represent a 314-224 Electoral College loss for Trump if the election were held today.
***
The best scenario for Trump would be a quick victory in the trade war, but that appears unlikely with China continuing to ratchet up retaliatory measures. A second-best alternative would be for Trump to seize on something – anything – that will allow him to save face and end the tariff battle before it results in a recession. At this point, this option also appears unlikely. Instead, the president appears intent on continuing to escalate the battle, threatening last week to cut off all trade with China.
***
Other Republicans are so far backing the president. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who is up for reelection next year himself, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” over the weekend, “We just got to accept the pain that comes with standing up to China.” “Accept the pain” is a horrible campaign slogan :lol: for Republicans as we enter an election year. Better advice would be to look back to Bill Clinton’s motto from 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
https://theresurgent.com/2019/08/27/swi ... publicans/
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#8

Post by much ado » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:24 pm

Orlylicious wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:05 pm
We will see... from Erick Erickson's The Resurgent:
August 27th, 2019
Swing State Polling Shows Nightmare For Republicans
Trump has gone from net positive to negative in nine states that he won in 2016.
by David Thornton

:snippity:

“Accept the pain” is a horrible campaign slogan :lol:
https://theresurgent.com/2019/08/27/swi ... publicans/
That is SO good. :lol:

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#9

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:52 pm

much ado wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:24 pm
Orlylicious wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:05 pm
We will see... from Erick Erickson's The Resurgent:
August 27th, 2019
Swing State Polling Shows Nightmare For Republicans
Trump has gone from net positive to negative in nine states that he won in 2016.
by David Thornton

:snippity:

“Accept the pain” is a horrible campaign slogan :lol:
https://theresurgent.com/2019/08/27/swi ... publicans/
That is SO good. :lol:
But it's going to be a GREAT campaign ad.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#10

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:01 pm

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#11

Post by Dolly » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:01 pm

posts from a local woman
Deborah Blake
Yesterday at 10:20 AM ·
I'm with him...
FOXNEWS.COM
Graham: 'Accept the pain' that comes with trade between US and China

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said on Sunday that Democrats should not criticize President Trump for taking on China over trade as they have complai...


comment:
Maureen xxxx Lindsay makes sense.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#12

Post by SLQ » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:55 pm

Trump's other campaign motto from recent weeks is fear based: Vote for me or you will lose money with the socialist democrats.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#13

Post by NotaPerson » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:38 pm

Orlylicious wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:05 pm
We will see... from Erick Erickson's The Resurgent:

August 27th, 2019
Swing State Polling Shows Nightmare For Republicans

https://theresurgent.com/2019/08/27/swi ... publicans/
Let's hope the polling firms have improved their methods of state-level polling since 2016. :|
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#14

Post by Sam the Centipede » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:55 pm

Orlylicious wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:05 pm
We will see... from Erick Erickson's The Resurgent:
August 27th, 2019
Swing State Polling Shows Nightmare For Republicans
There were no states where Trump approval increased in the same time period. Even in Alabama, the Trumpiest state in the Union, the data showed a one-point decline in the president’s approval, which translates into a change in net approval of negative 10 points.
Way to call Alabama a shithole! :rotflmao:

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#15

Post by Turtle » Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:10 pm

I would like to see more clips like what he plays here at the beginning:



Especially campaign commercials for the general election.

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#16

Post by PaulG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:40 pm

Last time, assuming the polls weren't hacked by Russians, Trump got amazingly lucky in the electoral college. The question seems to me, can he get lucky again? Will the same things line up the same way? He won because every thing that the normal people thought would happen, didn't. Everything that could fail, did. Will everything go wrong again? Well, probably not. Of course, I never thought he'd win the first time.

The Senate is more important to me than the White House. If we get the White House and not the Senate, then that's another two wasted years of stalemate to come. The reverse seems to give us a lot more to maneuver with. And, whether or not Trump goes down, the rest of the R's are going to have a bad time.

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#17

Post by Gregg » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:38 pm

The Senate is very important.

Consider, if RBG passes away after Labor Day in 2020, Mitch McConnell will call the Senate back to vote to confirm some waterhead that has never actually practiced law, but is a reliable Pepperdine Law Review Editor in his late 20s who thinks all the Amendments after the Bill of Rights are Unconstitutional and wants to rehear not just Roe v Wade but has his doubts about Dred Scott.

But if Trump loses and they hold the Senate, and RBG passes away as President Harris is being sworn in, Mitch will say its just not right for a President to fill a Supreme Court vacancy during their first term, that voters need to re-affirm their choice in the next election before he can even think of giving a new Justice designate a hearing.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#18

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:54 pm

Gregg wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:38 pm
The Senate is very important.

Consider, if RBG passes away after Labor Day in 2020, Mitch McConnell will call the Senate back to vote to confirm some waterhead that has never actually practiced law, but is a reliable Pepperdine Law Review Editor in his late 20s who thinks all the Amendments after the Bill of Rights are Unconstitutional and wants to rehear not just Roe v Wade but has his doubts about Dred Scott.

But if Trump loses and they hold the Senate, and RBG passes away as President Harris is being sworn in, Mitch will say its just not right for a President to fill a Supreme Court vacancy during their first term, that voters need to re-affirm their choice in the next election before he can even think of giving a new Justice designate a hearing.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#19

Post by Gregg » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:00 am

I'm basing that purely on the anecdotal evidence that every person I can think of with any connection to Pepperdine Law is a right wing loon who's not so sure about The Dred Scott case, or much that has happened since.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#20

Post by Dave at Sea » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:18 am

Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

Like a mushroom that has meiospored for the very last time in a (sand) bunker with soiled depends and insanely tweeting while rage crying that people don't respect him as he believes that they should.

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#21

Post by RVInit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:40 am

NotaPerson wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:38 pm
Orlylicious wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:05 pm
We will see... from Erick Erickson's The Resurgent:

August 27th, 2019
Swing State Polling Shows Nightmare For Republicans

https://theresurgent.com/2019/08/27/swi ... publicans/
Let's hope the polling firms have improved their methods of state-level polling since 2016. :|
I wonder how much of 2016 had to do with people too embarrassed to admit they intended to vote for Trump. I know several of those people. Once the voting was over and they realized how many others did the same, they started throwing it in our faces with glee. This time anyone who is going to vote or Trump will likely say so right up front. I don't know if that was the real difference in 2016, but it sure seemed like it in these parts.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#22

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:01 am

Gregg wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:00 am
I'm basing that purely on the anecdotal evidence that every person I can think of with any connection to Pepperdine Law is a right wing loon who's not so sure about The Dred Scott case, or much that has happened since.
Off Topic
I have actually hired 3 former Pepperdine Law School students as associates over the last 6 years. While they are more conservative than students from, say, UCLA Law School, they aren't loons at all. They're serious and almost of the same quality as UCLA and USC students.

For MCLE purposes I've also attended a lot of seminars at Pepperdine Law School. While the speakers are usually to the right (and often, sigh, religious), they still have to teach all that liberal law and they do.

Pepperdine also hosts a national intellectual property moot court competition every year. (I often volunteer as a judge and you can imagine the questions I ask the young scholars.) It's a pretty good competition drawing schools from all over the country -- excluding Pepperdine which is not allowed to participate.

Pepperdine Law is, therefore, a decent second rank law school. It is much better, say, than fourth rate Chapman, which has as one of its professors the fourth rate mind of the idiotic Hugh Hewitt. Chapman, as you will remember, used to be blessed with Ronald (McDonald) Rotunda, until Jeebus called him home.

Really offtopic: A word about the Pepperdine campus. People say it is beautiful. It's not. It's quite ugly with unremarkable modern buildings and no overall architectural plan. But it does have great views of the Pacific Ocean.

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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#23

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:50 am

No illusions that this will be easy, but just now Sen Isakson of Georgia threw in the towel, he'll retire end of 2019. They're saying health reasons, it'll be an appointment by idiot Brian Kemp so it won't change the Senate composition. And newest poll shows Donald lost his edge on the economy.

20 minutes ago WaPo:
Trump’s worst 2020 poll yet
By Aaron Blake August 28 at 9:35 AM

President Trump hasn’t seen many good polls these days, but he might have just seen his worst of the 2020 election cycle. A new Quinnipiac University poll has plenty of bad news for Trump — from his 2020 matchups with Democrats, to his own personal image, to his biggest asset in the 2020 race: the economy.

The poll shows him trailing all five Democrats tested by between nine and 16 points. He trails Joe Biden 54 to 38, Bernie Sanders 53 to 39, Elizabeth Warren 52 to 40, Kamala D. Harris 51 to 40 and Pete Buttigieg 49 to 40. These represent his biggest deficits to date against all five candidates, according to RealClearPolitics’s compilation of polls.

The poll also shows his approval/disapproval declining to 38/56, with just 27 percent approving of him strongly and 50 percent disapproving strongly. That’s the worst those splits have been in Quinnipiac polling since February 2018. He earns the approval of just 32 percent of independents and the disapproval of 60 percent. In every matchup with a Democrat, he trails among independents by at least 18 points. This is a demographic that he won in 2016 by four points.

The bad news extends, perhaps most significantly, to the economy. While six in 10 registered voters still regard the economy as “excellent” (18 percent) or “good” (43 percent), for the first time since June 2016 more Americans say the economy is getting “worse” (37 percent) than say it’s getting “better” (31 percent). As recently as one year ago, more than twice as many people thought the economy was getting better as thought it was getting worse.

The poll also shows, for the first time, slightly more Americans say Trump’s policies are “hurting” the economy (41 percent) than say they are “helping” (37 percent). The economic findings may be the most ominous of the entire poll for Trump. While we have yet to see a significant downturn in the American economy, there are increasing signs that it’s a possibility, and analysts are tying those growing odds to Trump’s trade war with China. The economy is by far Trump’s best issue: His approval is 38 percent or less on every other issue tested, including immigration and trade, but 46 percent on the economy. If it does decline, he’ll lose his most compelling case for reelection on an issue that is generally the most important to voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -poll-yet/
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#24

Post by voxpopuluxe » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:04 pm

Orlylicious wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:38 pm
But now the house of cards seems to be falling pretty quickly, from the economy to new Russian hostilities to fighting with our allies so there aren't any backstops for US policy. And comparing our Fed chief to the communist dictator of China ...
I'm not making any bets on any of this because the last three years have been nothing but "after X it's over for these hoes" where X has been, variously, Donald's behavior, Kelly's departure, baby jails, the Muller Report, etc., etc. Simple fact is, those hoes are still there because the ruling party and its supporters want him in there, whatever the costs, the opposition party is, on the whole, too timid/ham-handed/complicit to try to force him out, and the rest of us are too scattered and disorganized and exhausted to have much of an effect. So while I'm doing everything I can to support my preferred candidate, the chances that the current occupant will simply lose and leave seem increasingly slim to me.

(My pessimism has put off a few friends over the last several years, but Cassandra was right, I say.)

If Donald does go down, however hard it is, it won't be hard enough.
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Re: How Hard Will Donald Go Down?

#25

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:30 pm

Just to clarify, while Kemp will appoint a replacement, the seat will be up for grabs in 2020, meaning both Georgia seats are open. I'd think this puts Stacy Abrams as a front runner for VP, so much at stake.
The retirement of the Georgia giant will hurt Republicans' chances of keeping the Senate next year.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will select Isakson's replacement to serve through the end of 2020. That seat will then be subject to a special election in 2020 and whoever wins that race will have to run for the full six-year term in 2022.

Meanwhile, Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) is already up for reelection next year, so now Republicans have two Georgia seats to defend in 2020.
No doubt Vox and all about the challenge with Donald, didn't mean it as something easy. My point is that unlike a slow, steady decline, seems to me that when people say enough is enough (for whatever reason), Donald will drop like a rock except for the hardcore Miki Booth base. Specifically, I'm watching independents, young voters (again, young people voted more than older voters in the midterms, that's fascinating) and swing states. We've all been wrong and maybe he'll just cruise to victory... but 1) it's not HRC this cycle, 2) Democrats know what happened in the midwest and aren't going to make those mistakes and 3) the "Donald Fatigue" factor is showing up with disapproval on issues.
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