2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#51

Post by much ado »

fierceredpanda wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:04 pm I've been donating to local candidates mostly. At this point, honestly, it's going to be an interesting proposition for the Biden campaign to find ways to spend all that money. Someone did the math when their current cash-on-hand number (~$400M) came out, and it works out that they could spend $100,000/day in every single media market in the US every day until the election. Obviously, that would be a rather dumb thing to do, but it sort of demonstrates the point that such unfathomably huge sums of money eventually run out of road on which to run.
Can't the excess campaign money be spent on a lavish inauguration?
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#52

Post by pipistrelle »

much ado wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:43 pm
fierceredpanda wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:04 pm I've been donating to local candidates mostly. At this point, honestly, it's going to be an interesting proposition for the Biden campaign to find ways to spend all that money. Someone did the math when their current cash-on-hand number (~$400M) came out, and it works out that they could spend $100,000/day in every single media market in the US every day until the election. Obviously, that would be a rather dumb thing to do, but it sort of demonstrates the point that such unfathomably huge sums of money eventually run out of road on which to run.
Can't the excess campaign money be spent on a lavish inauguration?
Or forwarded to Harris/Abrams 2024. 😁
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#53

Post by June bug »

much ado wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:43 pm
fierceredpanda wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:04 pm I've been donating to local candidates mostly. At this point, honestly, it's going to be an interesting proposition for the Biden campaign to find ways to spend all that money. Someone did the math when their current cash-on-hand number (~$400M) came out, and it works out that they could spend $100,000/day in every single media market in the US every day until the election. Obviously, that would be a rather dumb thing to do, but it sort of demonstrates the point that such unfathomably huge sums of money eventually run out of road on which to run.
Can't the excess campaign money be spent on a lavish inauguration?
Can’t it be used for other Democratic candidates’ campaigns? (See Senate, House, state legislatures, etc.)
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#54

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

pipistrelle wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:51 pm
much ado wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:43 pm
fierceredpanda wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:04 pm I've been donating to local candidates mostly. At this point, honestly, it's going to be an interesting proposition for the Biden campaign to find ways to spend all that money. Someone did the math when their current cash-on-hand number (~$400M) came out, and it works out that they could spend $100,000/day in every single media market in the US every day until the election. Obviously, that would be a rather dumb thing to do, but it sort of demonstrates the point that such unfathomably huge sums of money eventually run out of road on which to run.
Can't the excess campaign money be spent on a lavish inauguration?
Or forwarded to Harris/Abrams 2024. 😁
:fingerwag: Harris/Buttigieg 2028
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#55

Post by SLQ »

I just love beating The Idiot at his own game. Ratings!
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#56

Post by Orlylicious »

How Biden destroyed Trump’s TV ad ‘death star’
The Democrat's fundraising gusher has enabled a national ad strategy that's helped put reach states in play.
Starting Oct. 26, Biden’s campaign plans to start running more 60-second ads during football games and many other shows.
By MARC CAPUTO 10/18/2020 11:33 AM EDT

Football fans in Phoenix will tune their TVs to ESPN to watch their Arizona Cardinals play the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night.

They’ll also see Joe Biden running up the score in advertising over President Trump: The Democrat’s campaign is spending nearly $400,000 for three TV spots during the game. Two of them will air locally in the massive Phoenix market – which has more political ads than anywhere else in the nation — and the third will be shown nationally.

Trump is spending just $36,000 on one local spot during the game.

The disparity isn’t just limited to the Monday Night Football game or to Arizona, a once reliably Republican state that’s now a hotly contested battleground. It’s playing out across the dial on TV sets nationwide in the broader presidential campaign. Biden is saturating the airwaves and outgunning his opponent by a margin of about $178 million in ad buys from June 1 through Election Day, according to data from the media-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.

Beyond the messages that both sides relay in their commercials, the ad buys themselves tell the story of the state of the presidential race — particularly the way that the Biden campaign deployed freighter-loads of cash to gain an advantage over Trump in national and many battleground polls. “What Biden’s campaign is doing is pretty unique,” said John Link, vice president of Advertising Analytics, which provided the data for this story. “They have been able to run a fully funded campaign in a broad array of swing states, while also expanding to national buys allowing them to expand their reach without sacrificing attention to key states and potentially saving money,” Link said.
More: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/1 ... nts-430011
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#57

Post by Slim Cognito »

Thursday night, we saw two trump ads, the first we'd seen in weeks. Haven't seen them since. Then again, trump was in SW Florida Friday morning so it may be tied to that.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#58

Post by Orlylicious »

If you have time for a podcast...

23 minutes in: The guys are feeling really good about PA, they don't think it's close. 6-8 points. They think it's more likely Biden blows it out by 10 points than Donald wins the state. In this podcast, they get into granular detail about the counties, how to make up for mail in ballots being disqualified, etc.
Pennsylvania, Texas and the Suburban Backlash
October 19, 2020 • 38 min

In 2016, Pennsylvania was considered part of Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall.” The thought was that, together, the Keystone State, Wisconsin and Michigan would vote Democrat and prevent Trump from winning the White House. Four years later, David and Steve talk to Democratic strategist Bill Hyers about why Pennsylvania crumbled and how 45’s chances look this time around. Hyers was named “Campaign Manager of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants after he engineered Bill de Blasio's come from behind victory in 2013. He ran Michael Nutter’s successful 2007 campaign for Mayor of Philadelphia, was the Pennsylvania State Director for Obama’s 2012 campaign, and worked on Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman’s very first campaign in 2018-19. Today, as a partner at The WIN Company, he’s working on campaigns across the country, including state races in Pennsylvania and Texas. In this episode of Battleground, he breaks down the Dems' chances in Pennsylvania and Texas, and explains why he's so bullish on Biden.




Battleground with David Plouffe & Steve Schmidt
Pennsylvania, Texas and the Suburban Backlash


https://therecount.com/podcasts/battleground
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#59

Post by Slim Cognito »

Thanks OL. Hubs has gotten into podcasts lately. I'll send him the link.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#60

Post by Atticus Finch »

Orlylicious wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:55 am If you have time for a podcast...

23 minutes in: The guys are feeling really good about PA, they don't think it's close. 6-8 points. They think it's more likely Biden blows it out by 10 points than Donald wins the state. In this podcast, they get into granular detail about the counties, how to make up for mail in ballots being disqualified, etc.
Pennsylvania, Texas and the Suburban Backlash
October 19, 2020 • 38 min

In 2016, Pennsylvania was considered part of Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall.” The thought was that, together, the Keystone State, Wisconsin and Michigan would vote Democrat and prevent Trump from winning the White House. Four years later, David and Steve talk to Democratic strategist Bill Hyers about why Pennsylvania crumbled and how 45’s chances look this time around. Hyers was named “Campaign Manager of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants after he engineered Bill de Blasio's come from behind victory in 2013. He ran Michael Nutter’s successful 2007 campaign for Mayor of Philadelphia, was the Pennsylvania State Director for Obama’s 2012 campaign, and worked on Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman’s very first campaign in 2018-19. Today, as a partner at The WIN Company, he’s working on campaigns across the country, including state races in Pennsylvania and Texas. In this episode of Battleground, he breaks down the Dems' chances in Pennsylvania and Texas, and explains why he's so bullish on Biden.




Battleground with David Plouffe & Steve Schmidt
Pennsylvania, Texas and the Suburban Backlash


https://therecount.com/podcasts/battleground
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#61

Post by Frater I*I »

Atticus Finch wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:42 am
“Trample the weak. Hurdle the dead.” Attila the Hun who while not rampaging is taking a time out to speak on behalf of Biden
And in a follow up statement from assistant campaign manager Genghis Khan: “The greatest happiness is to vanquish your enemies, to chase them before you, to rob them of their wealth, to see those dear to them bathed in tears, to clasp to your bosom their wives and daughters.”
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#62

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer »

Yech! That's Trump, not Biden!
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#63

Post by Volkonski »

Jasper Scherer
@jaspscherer
·
21m
New
@QuinnipiacPoll
of likely voters has Trump and Biden tied in Texas, 47-47. MOE is +/- 2.9%.

Those voting in person on Election Day: Trump 62, Biden 32
By mail/absentee: Biden 63, Trump 31
Voting at an early voting location: Biden 48, Trump 46

https://t.co/DknfDfrO9d?amp=1
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#64

Post by AndyinPA »

That's going to skew the election results on election night.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#65

Post by Volkonski »

Dave Weigel, Re-Animator
@daveweigel
·
17m
New Jersey and Vermont have joined Texas in an elite club: States where turnout is already more than 50% of the total vote four years ago. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vo ... index.html
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#66

Post by Whatever4 »

How does exit polling work when half the votes are absentee?
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#67

Post by fierceredpanda »

Whatever4 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:37 am How does exit polling work when half the votes are absentee?
Exit polling isn't really utilized as much as people think it is these days. A lot more has to do with modeling of turnout, since one of the benefits of polarization is that we know the partisan tendencies of each precinct. It's how you got that infamous moment on Fox News in 2012 where Karl Rove was insisting that Ohio (and thus the election) had been called for President Obama too soon. The experts had looked at the remaining vote outstanding in heavily Republican places like Butler County, and determined that it simply could not overcome the votes not yet counted in Democratic strongholds such as Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties. It's also one of the things that broke the forecasting models in 2016, because turnout in rural areas was essentially off-scale high. You basically had a ton of people who were infrequent voters coming out in droves for Trump, and slightly depressed turnout in urban areas, and that rendered everyone's model basically useless.

However, you can exit poll absentee voters the same way you would poll anything else - by telephone.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#68

Post by Sugar Magnolia »

Speaking of a "blue wave", why is trump's stuff all blue? Our judicial elections, by law, are non-partisan and the only way you can tell which party they are from by their signs is the background. Red background, nut case. Blue background, Democrat. Does trump think Dems are so stupid they will do the same with his and accidentally vote for him?
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#69

Post by fierceredpanda »

Sugar Magnolia wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:10 am Speaking of a "blue wave", why is trump's stuff all blue? Our judicial elections, by law, are non-partisan and the only way you can tell which party they are from by their signs is the background. Red background, nut case. Blue background, Democrat. Does trump think Dems are so stupid they will do the same with his and accidentally vote for him?
Bush-Cheney, McCain-Palin, and Romney-Ryan all used blue color schemes in their signs. Blue is a more psychologically comforting color than red, projecting calm, steady leadership. I'm not sure the last time a major party candidate for President used red as a primary color in campaign signage.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#70

Post by Sugar Magnolia »

fierceredpanda wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:21 am
Sugar Magnolia wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:10 am Speaking of a "blue wave", why is trump's stuff all blue? Our judicial elections, by law, are non-partisan and the only way you can tell which party they are from by their signs is the background. Red background, nut case. Blue background, Democrat. Does trump think Dems are so stupid they will do the same with his and accidentally vote for him?
Bush-Cheney, McCain-Palin, and Romney-Ryan all used blue color schemes in their signs. Blue is a more psychologically comforting color than red, projecting calm, steady leadership. I'm not sure the last time a major party candidate for President used red as a primary color in campaign signage.
Biden is more psychologically comforting, too.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#71

Post by Slim Cognito »

AndyinPA wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:34 pm That's going to skew the election results on election night.
True, but I don’t think any of us are counting on TX.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#72

Post by Slim Cognito »

Sugar Magnolia wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:10 am Speaking of a "blue wave", why is trump's stuff all blue? Our judicial elections, by law, are non-partisan and the only way you can tell which party they are from by their signs is the background. Red background, nut case. Blue background, Democrat. Does trump think Dems are so stupid they will do the same with his and accidentally vote for him?
I’ve seen several purple signs, here, MO and KS. I looked up the KS name and she was a republican.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#73

Post by AndyinPA »

I've noticed the change in colors for about 20 years here. I think it started happening in the Baby Bush administration. You could always tell which party someone was running in by the red or the blue. Not true anymore. The "bullshit" flags are also blue. And one of them is hanging on the front porch of the house next to my grandkids. :madguy:
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#74

Post by Atticus Finch »

fierceredpanda wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:21 am
Sugar Magnolia wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:10 am Speaking of a "blue wave", why is trump's stuff all blue? Our judicial elections, by law, are non-partisan and the only way you can tell which party they are from by their signs is the background. Red background, nut case. Blue background, Democrat. Does trump think Dems are so stupid they will do the same with his and accidentally vote for him?
Bush-Cheney, McCain-Palin, and Romney-Ryan all used blue color schemes in their signs. Blue is a more psychologically comforting color than red, projecting calm, steady leadership. I'm not sure the last time a major party candidate for President used red as a primary color in campaign signage.
Vladimir Lenin, Bolshevik Party, Constituent Assembly in 1917 elections in Russia (results: Bolshevik only received 24% of the popular vote and immediately dissolved the Constituent Assembly). Oh you mean in the U.S. none that I remember.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#75

Post by Somerset »

Atticus Finch wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:10 am
fierceredpanda wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:21 am
Sugar Magnolia wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:10 am Speaking of a "blue wave", why is trump's stuff all blue? Our judicial elections, by law, are non-partisan and the only way you can tell which party they are from by their signs is the background. Red background, nut case. Blue background, Democrat. Does trump think Dems are so stupid they will do the same with his and accidentally vote for him?
Bush-Cheney, McCain-Palin, and Romney-Ryan all used blue color schemes in their signs. Blue is a more psychologically comforting color than red, projecting calm, steady leadership. I'm not sure the last time a major party candidate for President used red as a primary color in campaign signage.
Vladimir Lenin, Bolshevik Party, Constituent Assembly in 1917 elections in Russia (results: Bolshevik only received 24% of the popular vote and immediately dissolved the Constituent Assembly). Oh you mean in the U.S. none that I remember.

Also rather popular in China ;)
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