2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

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2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#1

Post by Orlylicious »

We all know what happened in 2016 and all the caveats. Nothing will ever be as shocking as that. But hey, we deserve to enjoy some positive news, we've been saying forever how is anyone wanting this. Well, 2018 was sure a wave, and we deserve to enjoy stories like this. While fighting like 10 points behind, organizing, checking registration (important this cycle), and volunteering (you can phone bank and help from home). :P

AXIOS:
The blue wave keeps growing
Shane Savitsky

With 102 days until Election Day, the blue wave threatening to swamp President Trump's re-election chances keeps getting bigger and bigger.

Why it matters: We all know that anything can happen. But right now, every measurable trend is going against Trump — and with each day that passes, it gets increasingly harder for him to claw his way back.

The Cook Political Report on Friday flipped Florida from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic," with national editor Amy Walter citing the state's spiraling coronavirus outbreak.

That follows a Quinnipiac poll on Thursday that showed Joe Biden leading by 13 points in the Sunshine State. For context, Trump led Hillary Clinton by 3 points in the same poll in mid-July 2016.

Our thought bubble, from Axios White House editor Margaret Talev: Trump's re-election path has to go through Florida.

Without it, he's done.

The tsunami flows down-ballot: Charlie Cook and his team now like Democrats' chances to reclaim the Senate, with Cook's Senate editor Jessica Taylor shifting races in Arizona, Georgia and Iowa in their favor this week.

Cook also moved 20 House races toward Democrats.

Dave Wasserman, its House editor, said he couldn't recall a similarly sized shift for one party.

The big picture: Trump's net approval rating (-15) has remained remarkably consistent throughout his presidency, highlighting the difficulty he faces in trying to quickly turn around public opinion.

CNN's Harry Enten noted morning that, since 1940, incumbent presidents who were re-elected had an average net approval rating of +23.

Those who lost had an average net approval rating of -14.

The bottom line: The pandemic isn't going anywhere. And no matter what the president wants, it's going to define everything from here on out.

102 days ago, the U.S. had 860,000 confirmed coronavirus cases (now 4 million), and Trump claimed "total" authority over ordering states to reopen.

Think of everything that's happened since.
https://www.axios.com/the-blue-wave-kee ... 9a1cf.html


Wait till people don't get their checks and payments. House had the plan passed two months ago. :pray:


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

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Post by Tiredretiredlawyer »

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/09/demo ... which-good
Democrats Are 'Nervous' — Which Is Good Defeat would mean the advance of the GOP's politics of annihilation.

The headlines over the last seven days have been terrible for the president. It was reported first that he said dead Americans Marines were “losers” and that volunteers for military service were “suckers.” Last came Bob Woodward’s bombshell. Turns out Donald Trump knew the new coronavirus was deadlier than the flu. Turns out he consciously chose to minimize its anticipated impact as early as February. His abject dereliction of duty produced a death toll 66 times that of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

That’s a lot of bad press, so I suppose we’re due for a change of pace from members of the Washington press corps. If they’re going to spend time and energy producing bad headlines for the president, journalistic “balance” demands they produce at least one bad headline for Joe Biden—even if they must look under rocks and bushes to find it. NBC News’ Sahil Kapur and Jonathan Allen, right on cue, made it happen with “Democrats are nervous about Trump's persisting edge over Biden on the economy.”

This is not to say Kapur and Allen are wrong. They are quite right in reporting that polls suggest “Americans in battleground states still trust Trump over Biden on the economy, which often tops the list of decisive issues for voters.” I’m not here to quibble with their interpretation of the data. I’m not here to say the economy is an increasingly unreliable metric of voter behavior. The only points I want to make are simple ones. First, Democrats, especially liberal Democrats, are always nervous, not because of polling or Trump’s swing-state resilience, but because they’re liberals. Second, and more importantly, Democrats should be nervous. The stakes can’t be higher. Defeat will surely mean the advance of the GOP’s politics of annihilation.

Liberals doubt themselves habitually in ways experienced rarely by Republicans, especially the White House’s current occupant. Trump believes he’s always right about what’s going to work for him politically, and after every instance in which he expresses superlative confidence in himself, he’s shown to be wrong. (When I say “every instance,” I mean every single one. Being impervious to shame means being impervious to humiliation wrought by troglodyte political judgment.) Liberals just don’t work that way. Doubt is part of the mindset that makes them liberal. This is important to point out as it pertains to journalistic “balance.” Worried Democrats will always appear newsworthy compared to Republicans who are never worried, even if they should be.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#3

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Looks like Susan Collins is a goner. Lindsay Graham may be in trouble too. I don't trust the vote count in SC though. The Repubes will pull something out of their asses on that one.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#4

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Reality Check wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:55 am Looks like Susan Collins is a goner. Lindsay Graham may be in trouble too. I don't trust the vote count in SC though. The Repubes will pull something out of their asses on that one.
Will I go to hell for hoping for the timely demise of Mitch?


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#5

Post by jemcanada »

ZekeB wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:56 am
Reality Check wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:55 am Looks like Susan Collins is a goner. Lindsay Graham may be in trouble too. I don't trust the vote count in SC though. The Repubes will pull something out of their asses on that one.
Will I go to hell for hoping for the timely demise of Mitch?
If you do, you’ll probably run into several us there.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#6

Post by Reality Check »

ZekeB wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:56 am :snippity:
Will I go to hell for hoping for the timely demise of Mitch?
I want to see him lose first though.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#7

Post by Slim Cognito »

jemcanada wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:01 pm
ZekeB wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:56 am
Reality Check wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:55 am Looks like Susan Collins is a goner. Lindsay Graham may be in trouble too. I don't trust the vote count in SC though. The Repubes will pull something out of their asses on that one.
Will I go to hell for hoping for the timely demise of Mitch?
If you do, you’ll probably run into several us there.
Was it Twain who said (something like) Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#8

Post by jemcanada »

Slim Cognito wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:25 pm
jemcanada wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:01 pm
ZekeB wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:56 am
Will I go to hell for hoping for the timely demise of Mitch?
If you do, you’ll probably run into several us there.
Was it Twain who said (something like) Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.
:lol: :lol:


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#9

Post by Somerset »

Reality Check wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:09 pm
ZekeB wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:56 am :snippity:
Will I go to hell for hoping for the timely demise of Mitch?
I want to see him lose first though.
I'm not picky. Either will do for me.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#10

Post by Foggy »

I thought Twain said that all the interesting people are going to Hell.


I hope y'all are still wearing your seat belts!
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#11

Post by Suranis »

jemcanada wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:31 pm Was it Twain who said (something like) Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.
Thats actually a misquotation by adding a "the" where it wasnt there. What he was actually more or less saying is "hell is other people."

...heaven for climate, and hell for society.
- Mark Twain's Speeches, 1910 edition, p. 117.

Dying man couldn't make up his mind which place to go to -- both have their advantages, "heaven for climate, hell for company!"
- Mark Twain's Notebooks and Journals, vol. 3

http://www.twainquotes.com/Hell.html

Or maybe not. WHat the heck I'm wrong again


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#12

Post by pipistrelle »

I saw a pro-Susan Collins reference to “AOCSara.” Feels kinda desperate.
Edit: AOC Clone Sara


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#13

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer »

Somerset wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:03 pm
Reality Check wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:09 pm
ZekeB wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:56 am :snippity:
Will I go to hell for hoping for the timely demise of Mitch?
I want to see him lose first though.
I'm not picky. Either will do for me.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/ ... =emaildkre

Our creative response to sign vandalism in Trump/McConnell territory

Our local group, Four Rivers Indivisible, has been very active in the McConnell stronghold of far western Kentucky this year. Some of our activities have been covered by Forward KY including some blogs on the Trending List here at Daily Kos. From anti-Mitch and Vote Early billboards, to a You Tube of Kentuckians expressing the harms of Mitch McConnell, to my “Burma-Shave" style anti-Mitch signs, we are doing our part.

Last week, the Burma-Shave style signs on our small farm property were vandalized again. Every single sign was covered with black paint or broken. That’s 10 signs, on two different road frontages. And the McGrath campaign sign was sprayed on one side only, the side that said "Defend Democracy” of course.

The next day, he [my husband] said he had an idea. Why not create an "art project” with the debris, maybe use some trash cans. And he built the "sculpture”. We discovered we would need to lean it against our 28 year old farm truck, so that provided some opportunities, although he worried over someone damaging the truck. Over this last week I have added signs and some laminated posters we used at a Moral Mondays Car Caravan in Paducah recently at McConnell’s office. We put the “sculpture” and the laminated signs (with magnetic strips) up at night and put it back out each day. I had two laminated posters made of photos I had of the original sign sets, you can see in the photos.

Monday, Oct 5, 2020 · 8:30:46 AM CDT · Leslie in KY
So because of the donations inspired by this diary we are thinking of adding another big sign, suggestions welcome.
Something like
THANK YOU!
VANDALISM = DONATIONS TO DITCH MITCH
FOUR RIVERS INDIVISIBLE

bit.ly/4riversdonate

and a goal thermometer with an arrow pointing to how much was raised since I wrote the diary.
https://images.dailykos.com/images/8645 ... 1601819718


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#14

Post by Orlylicious »

Pep talk from the Ragin Cajun. We all have to keep working our hearts out but things are really falling into place! :thumbs:
Trump's 2020 polls prove Democrats need to start planning for a Biden White House
It feels like the majority of people who believe Trump can win again in 2020 are Democrats, for better or for worse.
Oct. 8, 2020, 7:03 PM UTC
By James Carville

Many years ago, George Mitchell, the Senate Democratic majority leader in the 1990s, told me, “The only people who believe the speeches of Republican senators are Democratic senators.”

I love my party. And I’m proud of what we stand for: equality, economic dignity, health care as a human right, among other things. But when it comes to practicing politics, the Democrats are a party ridden with crushing anxiety and self-doubt, even if the winds of fate are sailing entirely in our direction. Throughout the Trump era, I’ve seen us suffer time and again a terrible case of political amnesia.

The Democrats are a party ridden with crushing anxiety and self-doubt, even if the winds of fate are sailing entirely in our direction.

In 2016, Donald Trump got just over 46 percent of the vote, aided by Russia’s hacking and disinformation campaign, Jim Comey’s oh-so-necessary letter about Hillary Clinton’s email server and a tepid Democratic endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders. Yet even amid Clinton’s tornado of negative coverage, Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million, winning the Electoral College by a freakish fraction of votes spread across three states. Since Trump was inaugurated, we’ve won governor's races in all three of those states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. We elected the first Democratic senator from Arizona in decades, suburbs across the country have shifted against the president and in 2018, Democrats stormed to the majority in the House of Representatives by the largest voter margin in U.S. history.

Now, it feels like the majority of people who believe Trump can win again in 2020 are Democrats, for better or for worse. And yet, Trump’s approval rating has never once peaked above 50 percent, even before Covid-19 — the only president to fail to reach that level since polls have measured presidential favorability. And now, because of his gross mishandling of the worst pandemic we’ve seen in a century, he has reduced his base support even further. As a result, I predict we will see a majority unite against him in a way not seen since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential election. I have never been more certain of something in my life. So, quell your fears, bed-wetting Democrats: 2016 is not 2020.

And that means this election is not just about defeating Trump. We also need to think about what comes next. Once the votes are tallied, I think we’re going to see a welcome unification of groups once thought to be separate: young liberals, veterans, suburban women, voters of color and seniors who witnessed the darkest flashpoints of our country’s history.

Dating back to April, I have been publicly bullish of a Democratic victory. This is the most consistent race I’ve seen — consistently bad for the Republicans. And this week, a slew of polling from NBC/Wall Street Journal and CNN only confirm my long held belief. While the CNN poll had Biden up a stratospheric 16 percent, there is a statistic within the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which had Biden up 14 percent, that should not be overlooked. But apart from the double-digit defection of men or Trump’s nose-diving numbers with seniors, there is an underlying statistic within that should not be overlooked.

The poll showed that 36 percent of respondents identified as Republicans and Trump got 39 percent of the vote. This means there are now more people, even in his swan-diving national popularity, who intend to vote for Trump than actually self-identify as Republicans.

So in the last four years he hurt the nation, which is awful. But he has now also hurt the Republican Party, with their full cooperation, which is not awful. That’s why North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, Arizona’s Martha McSally, Iowa’s Joni Ernst, and Maine’s Susan Collins — senators who may have been thought unbeatable before — are now fighting for their seats. Democrats can expand their House majority by capitalizing on suburban districts in states like Texas that were thought unwinnable before Trump. And with a popular vote victory as large as the NBC/WSJ poll, even that ol’ hypocrite Sen. Lindsey Graham could be sent running for the hills.

Trump can probably only beat Biden by cheating. And Democrats can stop him.

The Republicans know they are facing a resounding defeat. Like I predicted in April, they have tried to cheat at every turn. But if the polls hold, even with all their corruption and conniving, there is nothing that the Pennsylvania state Legislature, Wisconsin Supreme Court, or even Trump’s precious Supreme Court justice Amy Coney Barrett will be able to do about it.

Now, this coalition will not hold forever. What has happened over the last four years has presented a once in a generation opportunity for Democrats to run up the score against a party that has become the most dangerous threat to American life we’ve faced since World War II. Quite honestly, it’s unlikely we keep retired military generals and urban teenagers in the same coalition forever. But from this moment of national peril, we can hope to repair the foundations of our government and push our country forward with giant bounds of progress.

So, in these final weeks before the election, second-guessing Democrats need to stop chasing the tails of the daily news cycle. I’ve spent a lifetime in politics, I've seen a lot of elections, and have had my fair share of sleepless nights. But this race is different. Stay energized, shake off the 2016 PTSD, sleep well. It’s time to think bigger. This November, we have a chance to not just win, but win in such a way that we will be able to change the trajectory of America — for the better.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/t ... cna1242631


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#15

Post by pipistrelle »

A warning sign for Trump: Florida seniors in a pro-Biden golf cart caravan

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... t-villages


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#16

Post by Orlylicious »

Fernand is in Florida, former GOP, and Wasserman is Cook Political Report.

Armandi Wasserman.JPG


Here's a kickoff. This doesn't seem salvagable for Donald and the GOP, there's just not enough time and voting is heavy. And brilliant Donald canceled the debate this week so unless you're watching Fox... what a disaster. But of course Vote & make sure everybody is too!

Post-ABC poll: Biden maintains lead nationally over Trump
By Scott Clement, Dan Balz and Emily Guskin
October 11, 2020 at 12:01 AM EDT

With little more than three weeks remaining until Election Day, President Trump is in a race against the clock as he continues to trail former vice president Joe Biden by double digits, his standing driven down by distrust on the issue of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. The president has not managed to close the gap with Biden during a tumultuous period of events that included the first presidential debate, the debate between Vice President Pence and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) and Trump’s hospitalization after testing positive for the novel coronavirus. In fact, the race has changed little over a period of months, with voters seemingly impervious to the flood of news and controversies.

Biden is favored by 54 percent of likely voters, with Trump favored by 42 percent. Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen receives 2 percent support, and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins is at 1 percent. Biden’s lead among registered voters is also 12 points, consistent with Post-ABC polls taken in recent months. National polls reflect the status of the popular vote and not the state-by-state contests for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Post-ABC polls of battleground states, as well as other public polls, show Biden with an advantage in that competition as well, though the state margins generally are narrower, and some states are considered toss-ups. Still, no candidate has won an electoral-college majority while losing the popular vote by a margin like Trump’s current deficit.

The major obstacles in the president’s path remain his overall approval rating and how Americans judge his handling of the pandemic. Despite his efforts, he has not been able to change those assessments, and until he does, he will struggle to overtake his Democratic challenger. Trump’s overall approval rating among registered voters stands at 45 percent positive and 54 percent negative, with 47 percent saying they strongly disapprove. Among those who approve of his job performance, 90 percent favor him for reelection, while among those who disapprove, 93 percent favor Biden. Notably, Trump’s deficit in support to Biden has hovered close to his net approval margin throughout the election. The president’s ratings on handling the pandemic are slightly worse than his overall marks, with 41 percent of registered voters saying they approve and 58 percent saying they disapprove. Slightly more than 9 in 10 who approve of his handling of the outbreak support Trump for reelection, while nearly 9 in 10 who disapprove support Biden.

Trump’s best ratings come on the economy, where 54 percent of voters approve of his performance and 45 percent disapprove. However, on this measure, there is less symmetry in how this translates into support for him and Biden. Among those who approve of his handling of the economy, 77 percent back the president, and 16 percent favor Biden. Among those who disapprove of his handling of the economy, 96 percent support Biden for president compared with 0 percent for Trump, with the remainder supporting Jorgensen, Hawkins or offering no preference. The reason for this appears to be voters’ judgment that the president’s pandemic response matters more to them than his handling of the economy as they determine whom to support. Among the 12 percent of the electorate that approves of Trump on the economy but disapproves of the way he has handled the pandemic, 58 percent support Biden, while 19 percent back the president. About 4 in 10 registered voters approve of Trump on both the economy and the pandemic, and more than 9 in 10 of those voters back him for reelection. Just over 4 in 10 disapprove of his handling of both, and more than 9 in 10 of them say they support Biden.

Trump is judged harshly both for his handling of the pandemic and for failing to take what people regard as adequate protections to avoid contracting the virus. Almost 2 in 3 voters say Trump did not take appropriate precautions to reduce the chances of catching the coronavirus, and 6 in 10 say they do not trust the administration to provide complete and accurate information about his health. White House officials have repeatedly refused, for example, to say when the president last tested negative, a key judgment in ascertaining whether he remains contagious as he returns to campaigning. Just over 6 in 10 say they do not trust what he says about the pandemic, including 48 percent who say they trust him “not at all” in his pronouncements. The poll finds that about 6 in 10 voters say they believe Trump is healthy enough to carry out his duties as president. The president has said he feels good and, after holding an event at the White House on Saturday, he plans to travel to Florida on Monday for a rally.

Still, given Trump’s illness and an increase in coronavirus cases in many states, the pandemic continues to cast a shadow over the election. Nearly 8 in 10 registered voters say the virus is somewhat under control or not at all under control, although the percentage who say it is not at all under control has dropped from 49 percent in August to 35 percent this month. Nearly 2 in 3 say they are “very” or “somewhat” worried that they or a family member might catch the virus, and 8 percent say an immediate family member has been infected. Although most Americans do not trust what Trump says about the pandemic or his handling of it, a 63 percent majority say they have confidence in the federal government as a whole to handle the outbreak, views that are nearly identical to findings in March. Trump has sent mixed signals, at best, about wearing a mask and has disparaged Biden for his more rigorous mask-wearing and social distancing. When he returned from the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center last week, Trump made a show of quickly removing his mask as he stood on the balcony at the White House.

Trump’s practices and pronouncements run counter to the views of a majority of the country, however. The poll finds that about 3 in 4 registered voters say that wearing a mask and practicing social distancing can reduce the chances of contracting the virus “a great deal” or “a good amount.” Among the 56 percent who say those practices make a great deal of difference, Biden leads Trump in vote support by 75 percent to 20 percent. Voters who say these reduce risk “a good amount” account for about a fifth of registered voters, and they split 44 percent for Trump and 42 percent for Biden. Among the remaining quarter of registered voters who say these practices are less effective, Trump leads by 85 percent to 11 percent.

Interest in the election continues to be extremely high, with 65 percent of registered voters saying they are following it “very closely,” an increase of 11 points over the past two months. Nearly 9 in 10 say they are certain to vote or say they already have cast their ballots. Half of all likely voters say they plan to vote early, and an additional 7 percent say they have already voted. Among likely voters who have voted or say they will vote early, 40 percent are voting by mail, and 22 percent are dropping off their ballots at a designated drop box, while 37 percent were voting in person. Over the past month, more say they will use drop boxes, and slightly fewer say they will use the Postal Service.

Likely voters 65 and older are much more likely to have already voted (15 percent) than voters under 65 (5 percent). A 64 percent majority of likely voters supporting Biden plan to vote early, and an additional 10 percent say they have already voted, leaving about a quarter who say they plan to vote on Election Day. Among likely voters supporting Trump, a 61 percent majority plan to vote on Election Day, while 33 percent plan to vote early, and 3 percent say they have already voted. Among senior likely voters, 23 percent who back Biden say they have already cast their ballots, compared with 6 percent of Trump supporters.
***
Most voters believe Trump has paid too little in taxes, following a September report by the New York Times that Trump paid little or no federal income taxes in recent years. A 56 percent majority of voters say Trump has not paid his fair share of taxes, including nearly half who say this “strongly.” Over 9 in 10 Democrats and almost 6 in 10 independents say the president has not paid a fair share of taxes, while about 7 in 10 Republicans say he has.

The demographics of the vote highlight the important changes between the 2016 election and this year’s contest. Biden holds a 23-point advantage among female likely voters (59 percent to 36 percent), while Trump and Biden split men, 48 percent each. If those figures hold, both would represent a shift from 2016, when men backed Trump by 11 points and women favored Hillary Clinton by 13 points. Trump leads by 26 points among White voters without four-year college degrees, which is smaller than his 36-point advantage in 2016, according to a Pew survey of confirmed voters. Biden holds a 31-point lead with White college graduates, which is much better than Clinton’s performance among this group. (Estimates range from plus-17 in Pew data to essentially even in other sources.) Preferences among independent voters appear to have shifted considerably compared with 2016, with independent voters favoring Biden by 52 percent to 40 percent. By contrast, Trump beat Clinton among self-identified independent voters by four points, according to 2016 network exit polls.
More at https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... p_politics

It's not going to be fun to be around Donald.
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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#17

Post by Orlylicious »

Here's ABC's take on the new poll. ABC News story is at https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/powered ... al_fb_abcn

The PDF, which is gruesome for Donald and the GOP, is at

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conte ... Update.pdf

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: 2020 Election Update
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER12:01 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020

Powered by Trust on the Pandemic, Biden Leads by 12 Points Nationally

Joe Biden holds a 17-point lead over Donald Trump in trust to handle the coronavirus pandemic in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, powering the Democrat to a double-digit advantage in vote preference with the presidential election three weeks off. In the aftermath of his own COVID-19 diagnosis, two-thirds of registered voters say Trump failed to take appropriate precautions against the virus, 62 percent distrust what he says about it, and, eight months since its arrival in the United States, just 21 percent say it’s under control. Also damaging to Trump: Fifty-eight percent disapprove of how he’s handled the pandemic –essentially steady since July –and anew high, 73 percent, are worried they or an immediate family member might catch the coronavirus (or say it’s already happened). Worry about the virus remains a significant independent predictor of support for Biden over Trump. The presidential race stands at 53-41 percent, Biden-Trump, among registered voters, and a similar 54-42 percent among likely voters, with minimal support (in the low single digits) for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. Biden’s advantage rests on his support among women, racial and ethnic minorities, independents, and an unusually wide lead among moderates.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#18

Post by wavey davey »

I am feeling pretty confidant that the election is going the way we want, but then there are some disturbing issues that come up.

For example, I did a search for the Wapo piece about the "Trump campaign is in a death spiral", and I found two with the same headline, but the first one was from 4 years ago, almost to the day. :shock:

For another example, start watching the following video around the 2 minute mark.

I'm not sure what to make of this. Is this an example of the media desperately trying to make the election into a horse race, or are there real concerns that we're in for a re-run of 2016? :eek2:



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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#19

Post by p0rtia »

I no longer watch Melber's hour. He has taken his self-appointed task of showing Both Sides* to new lows. Not only does he scrounge the bottom of the barrel of false equivalencies, he is consistently inaccurate. To wit: last week he attempted to balance* a story about red states showing covid numbers rising by saying that it wasn't only red states, because New York has the worst death numbers and positive numbers are rising.

This is blatant deception. You can't compare the horrible death toll in NY, which occurred in the early days when the virus had free rein, before we had any treatments and before social distancing, with the deaths occurring in states like Florida, now, with 60 percent of the population masking + SD. And even if you did, NY is averaging 5 to 10 deaths per say and Florida is averaging 100 deaths per day.

Regarding infection rates, Florida has blown by NY in terms of cases per 1000--they just don't die as often (see above). No attempt on Melber's part to actually describe how Cuomo is handling the hotspots in and around the city, or to point out that even with the hotspots, NY's positivity rate peaked last week at 1.5% (highest in three months), whereas Fla as been wavering between 5% and 12% over the same time. He also said that NY's test positivity rates had been rising for several months. MONTHS. This is a gross error at best, a lie at worst.

I hate him.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#20

Post by NotaPerson »

wavey davey wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:30 pm I'm not sure what to make of this. Is this an example of the media desperately trying to make the election into a horse race, or are there real concerns that we're in for a re-run of 2016? :eek2:
I don't think it's either, necessarily. There's good reason to believe that pollsters at the state level have improved their methodologies since 2016, plus there were many more undecided voters at this point in 2016, and these undecided broke pretty strongly for Trump in the last few days before the election.

A decent discussion of these issues is here:

Pollsters got it wrong in the 2016 election. Now they want another shot.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/0 ... ther-shot/

The article also contains this nugget, which more or less confirms a suspicion I had - that all the positive (for Clinton) polls in swing states resulted in making too many Democratic voters complacent....
According to a recent study, an overwhelmingly liberal audience tuned in to those overly confident quantitative forecasts in 2016. Previously published studies suggest that when people believe the outcome of an election is certain, they are less likely to vote, especially if the certainty is stacked in favor of their chosen candidate. So in a twist on what is known as the observer effect—in which the mere act of watching something changes the outcome—feeding a heavily Democratic audience with a steady diet of overconfident polling like Wang’s could have reduced turnout significantly. Given that the race was essentially decided by only 107,000 votes in three states, any reduction could have been important.

“Clinton lost by so few votes that it is certainly possible that probabilistic forecasts caused enough Democrats to stay home that it affected the outcome,” wrote Lelkes. Clinton herself suggested as much. “I don’t know how we’ll ever calculate how many people thought it was in the bag, because the percentages kept being thrown at people—‘Oh, she has an 88 percent chance to win!’” she said in an interview in New York magazine.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#21

Post by AndyinPA »

p0rtia wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:54 pm I no longer watch Melber's hour. He has taken his self-appointed task of showing Both Sides* to new lows. Not only does he scrounge the bottom of the barrel of false equivalencies, he is consistently inaccurate. To wit: last week he attempted to balance* a story about red states showing covid numbers rising by saying that it wasn't only red states, because New York has the worst death numbers and positive numbers are rising.

This is blatant deception. You can't compare the horrible death toll in NY, which occurred in the early days when the virus had free rein, before we had any treatments and before social distancing, with the deaths occurring in states like Florida, now, with 60 percent of the population masking + SD. And even if you did, NY is averaging 5 to 10 deaths per say and Florida is averaging 100 deaths per day.

Regarding infection rates, Florida has blown by NY in terms of cases per 1000--they just don't die as often (see above). No attempt on Melber's part to actually describe how Cuomo is handling the hotspots in and around the city, or to point out that even with the hotspots, NY's positivity rate peaked last week at 1.5% (highest in three months), whereas Fla as been wavering between 5% and 12% over the same time. He also said that NY's test positivity rates had been rising for several months. MONTHS. This is a gross error at best, a lie at worst.

I hate him.
I've pretty much given up on him, too, for pretty much the same reason.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#22

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

Lest we not forget the Russian intelligence services came along right around this time 4 years ago and upset the election, which Hillary Clinton was still going to win, if not so handily, and then James Comey had to seek another 15 minutes of fame concerning the Clinton emails on Anthony Weiner's laptop. Joe Biden doesn't appear to have the skeletons in his closet that Comey claimed Clinton had. And Trump is dogged with a scandal -- his failure to lead the country during the pandemic -- that he did not have in 2016.

Melber is just trying to stir the shit (for ratings). For that matter so has been Michael Moore (but to keep Dems from becoming complacent.)


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#23

Post by RoadScholar »

Another major difference is that in 2016 lots of folks thought the bastard was just politicking, saying extreme things, but once elected would prove to be a serious, businesslike, capable leader.

Since then, many of them have realized that Trump will never come close to being that.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#24

Post by p0rtia »

Sterngard Friegen wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:27 pm Lest we not forget the Russian intelligence services came along right around this time 4 years ago and upset the election, which Hillary Clinton was still going to win, if not so handily, and then James Comey had to seek another 15 minutes of fame concerning the Clinton emails on Anthony Weiner's laptop. Joe Biden doesn't appear to have the skeletons in his closet that Comey claimed Clinton had. And Trump is dogged with a scandal -- his failure to lead the country during the pandemic -- that he did not have in 2016.

Melber is just trying to stir the shit (for ratings). For that matter so has been Michael Moore (but to keep Dems from becoming complacent.)
My take on Melber is that is is all about the ego and the image, all the time. I watch and listen to a lot of smart people on MSNBC talking about the same things Melber talks about. Many appear to be getting a high off the importance of being in the public eye at a crucial time (which is fine with me if they are insightful and original), many appear to be grinding self-promotors looking for exposure as they build their careers (they do a lot of repeating of observations we've heard ten times that day).

Melber exudes "I'm smarter, more clever, and better looking, see?" One of his pieces of shtick is to interrupt the most compelling guests in the middle of a fascinating analysis to make a joke out of some word or phrase they've just uttered. It is maddening--throws the guest and viewers off. He just give us his shit-eating "aren't I funny? Isn't my bad joke more important than whatever you were saying?" grin. So full of himself.


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Re: 2020 Blue Wave? Reporting on the Election

#25

Post by Volkonski »

Andy Pierrotti
@AndyPierrotti
As of 11am, voters waited 5+ hours to cast ballots @ the main Cobb Co. early polling location (736 Whitlock Ave, Marietta). Some seemed unbothered by the line. “It doesn’t matter how long it takes…we’re voting like our life depends on it,“ said a voter. #gavotes
@11AliveNews


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