LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post Reply
User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1

Post by Orlylicious » Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:21 am

We don't have a Brexit topic and it's coming with some interesting polling:
EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – with just 12 days to go
Andrew Grice @IndyPolitics Saturday 11 June 2016 01:51 BST

The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.

The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.
***
The ORB survey highlights the stark generational differences over the EU. Seven out of 10 people aged 18-24 back Remain and 30 per cent Leave. Support for Leave rises up the age scale to 64 per cent among those aged 55 and over (figures weighted for turnout). Crucially, just over half (56 per cent) of 18-24 year-olds say they will definitely vote, compared to more than 80 per cent of those aged 55 and over.

Support for EU membership is highest in Scotland, with 60 per cent backing Remain. But a majority of people in every other region of Great Britain favour withdrawal when turnout is taken into account. In London, seen as a strong area for the Remain campaign, only 44 per cent back staying in the EU and 56 per cent favour voting to leave. This is due to the turnout factor. Only 66 per cent of people in London say they will definitely vote, the lowest of any region.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 75131.html

Reuters:
Markets | Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:37pm EDT
Global stocks slide on Brexit fears as investors seek safety
NEW YORK | By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

Investors swapped equities for less risky assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the yen on Friday on fears about the impact of Britain's June 23 referendum on whether it should leave the European Union.

An index of world equity markets suffered its worst day in four months after having snapped a five-day winning streak on Thursday, while oil prices slid and were off 2016 highs hit this week due to a stronger dollar.

U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, fell to four-month lows as European sovereign debt yields plunged on continuing concerns about global growth and a potential British exit from the EU.

Though bookmakers' odds point towards a vote to stay in the EU, polls suggest a neck-and-neck race.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-globa ... SKCN0YW02N

The anti-immigrant, older vote reflects some US voter opinion and if the UK does it there will certainly be coverage here. If it's chaos, I'd think US voters will reject the nationalism. But these are the kinds of things that can really pull some focus on the US Presidential.

On the other hand, will this be NESARA and the Dong will rise?
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#2

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:14 am

POLITICO:
Clinton's new worry: A 'Brexit'-fueled recession
As British voters appear more willing to leave EU, markets across the Atlantic brace for a fall.

By Ben White and Francesco Guerrera 06/15/16 12:00 AM EDT

NEW YORK -- Voters in the United Kingdom could deliver a sharp jolt to the global economy and the 2016 presidential race next week. Recent polls show strong momentum in Great Britain in favor of abandoning membership in the European Union when the nation votes in a referendum next Thursday, an event that could send global markets plunging, damage the fragile US economy, presage the demise of the EU itself and present a fresh headache for Hillary Clinton in her effort to keep the White House in Democratic hands.

“If the UK chooses to leave next week there will be a lot of immediate volatility in markets,” said Megan E. Greene, chief economist at Manulife in Boston. “But you could also end up having an existential threat to the European Union and then the impact on the United States would be even bigger and the market dislocations that follows would be much larger.”

None of this would be welcome news for the Clinton campaign, which is already facing one destabilizing event in the Orlando massacre and could soon be faced with a second shock. Clinton is counting on a strengthening US economy to help her defeat presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the fall. But a vote in favor of the UK leaving the EU, especially if it’s followed by similar movements in Italy, France and other EU nations, could damage a US economy that grew at just a 0.8 percent rate in the first quarter by driving stock prices lower, pushing the dollar higher, sapping investor and consumer confidence and damaging critical US trading partners.
***
“Markets right now are re-pricing the risk of Britain leaving and this could intensify over the next few days,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. “If there is no second initiative anywhere else and this is a limited one-off event, the impact on the US will be small and containable. If there a pile on after a Leave vote then the risk of a dismembered EU will intensify. We have many questions, little history to guide us and, hence, no answers.”
More: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/c ... xit-224323
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

User avatar
Whatever4
Posts: 12130
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:36 am
Location: Mainely in the plain
Occupation: Visiting doctors.

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#3

Post by Whatever4 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:55 pm

They are fighting wars over this.

Nigel Farage, Bob Geldof, a chase down the Thames... and the most surreal day in British politics ever
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... -most-sur/


Photos: http://www.wsj.com/articles/photos-fish ... 1465994170
"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
-- Sen. King (I-ME)

User avatar
Mikedunford
Posts: 10429
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:42 pm

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#4

Post by Mikedunford » Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

I saw that on my way to the library earlier. Not much of a chase, really, but I did get a picture or two.
"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

Adrianinflorida
Posts: 3110
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 1:07 pm
Location: South Detroit

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#5

Post by Adrianinflorida » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:33 pm

The only politician whom I view as more of an asshole than Drumpf is Nigel Farage

They'd be the perfect ticket to repulse voters from even considering voting

User avatar
Flatpointhigh
Posts: 7909
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2011 1:05 pm
Location: Hotel California, PH23
Occupation: Voice Actor, Podcaster, I hold a Ph.D in Procrastination.
Contact:

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#6

Post by Flatpointhigh » Fri Jun 17, 2016 11:16 am

Adrianinflorida wrote:The only politician whom I view as more of an asshole than Drumpf is Nigel Farage

They'd be the perfect ticket to repulse voters from even considering voting
Not necessarily. There are plenty of repugnant individuals who would vote for them

My Name is...
Daffy Duck.. woo hoo!
Cancer broke me

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#7

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:37 am

Bookies Say It’s Almost All Over as Gamblers See No Brexit
Dara Doyle June 21, 2016 — 2:56 AM EDT
Updated on June 21, 2016 — 8:25 AM EDT

Gamblers Reject Brexit as S&P Gives Ratings Cut Warning

Gamblers pour money on U.K. to stay in the European Union
One gambler places 315,000-pound bet on Brexit rejection

Bookies and gamblers are strengthening in their conviction that the U.K. will opt to remain in the European Union, as polls show a swing away from a so-called Brexit.

Ladbrokes Plc said Tuesday that the odds on a “Remain” vote had shortened to a 2/9 chance, indicating an 82 percent probability. Brexit opponents may win with 50 percent to 55 percent of the vote, wagers on the Betfair exchange suggest.

“As far as the money’s concerned, it looks like Brexit is beginning to fall at the final hurdle,” Jessica Bridge, a spokeswoman for Ladbrokes, said in an e-mailed statement. The company said late Monday that some 95 percent of all referendum wagers in the previous 24 hours had been placed on voters rejecting Brexit. “Money talks, and it’s one-way traffic from ‘Remain’ punters.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... t-rejected
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

User avatar
Notorial Dissent
Posts: 12502
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:21 pm

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#8

Post by Notorial Dissent » Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:29 am

This reminds me of the prediction that Labor was going to win the last election hands down.
The fact that you sincerely and wholeheartedly believe that the “Law of Gravity” is unconstitutional and a violation of your sovereign rights, does not absolve you of adherence to it.

Tarrant
Posts: 1601
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:05 pm

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#9

Post by Tarrant » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:15 am

It does not surprise me that things are turning against Brexit, much like they turned against the Scottish independence referendum near the end.

While the murder of Jo Cox by a nationalist definitely has had an effect, the lack of answers by the Brexit camp to a lot of questions was going to become a bigger point of contention as more and more voters started to take note.

There's a lot to like in the theory of a Brexit, in terms of the pro- camp's cries to national authority, taking control in Parliament again, etc. But their arguments tended to center around a feeing that, somehow, the U.K. would be able to keep all the things they liked about being part of the EU (low to no trade barriers, easy movement for British citizens, etc.) while claiming sovereignty over things they didn't like (immigration, some parts of the regulatory environment). And the EU, more forcefully lately, was making it clear that if they leave, the U.K. doesn't get to decide those things. The trade agreements are void and have to be renegotiated (and they made it clear the U.K. wasn't going to get the same favorable terms as a member would). U.K. citizens within thebEurozone would have to get work visas and the like like any foreign citizen.

During the Scottish independence referendum, there were similar notes - the "independence" campaign said that an independent Scotland would keep the pound as currency, would get to keep free movement, etc. BUT also be sovereign over the things it didn't like 10 Downing Street controlling. And the U.K. rightfully told them that if they leave, those things aren't in their control anymore.

If I recall Quebec's independence referendum went similarly. Hell, even when US states bang that recent secession drum there's always the "And we'll get to keep all the military bases and other federal facilities that we don't pay upkeep for but somehow we will take all that over and it won't cost a dime!"

TexasFilly
Posts: 18205
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2009 12:52 pm

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#10

Post by TexasFilly » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:06 pm

Just a reminder that about a month ago, Drumpf didn't know what Brexit was when queried by a reporter. It's been in the NY Times for months. Recall the taco bowl photo of Drumpf. The plate is on top of a stack of NY Times papers. I guess he just uses them as classy place mats rather than read them.
I love the poorly educated!!!

I believe Anita Hill! I believe Dr. Ford!

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#11

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:13 pm

I'm still amazed how easy it is to see everything live worldwide, what a world. Live SkyNews coverage:
[bbvideo=560,315][/bbvideo]

Results are being commented on by Julian Assange
Wikileaks is now broadcasting free live coverage of the Brexit vote. Described as “What you won’t see on the BBC,” coverage is being hosted by Editor-in-Chief Julian Assange, who has stated that he “pretty much” backs a Brexit from the European Union.
The live stream can be watched here: http://brexitclub.eu/
http://heavy.com/news/2016/06/watch-eu- ... wikileaks/

Image
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#12

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:55 pm

Closer than expected. Pound has plummeted again, from $1.50 to $1.40, an unprecedented move (just being reported on SkyNews). Huge market reaction. It's up to London from what's being reported. Oh boy.

BBC: Live coverage at this link as well
Image

The anti-immigrant "Leave" campaign is being watched very, very closely by Republican political operatives for tips.
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

chancery
Posts: 1628
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2009 5:51 pm

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#13

Post by chancery » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:36 pm

Latest results breaking bad. :(

User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 16785
Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:04 am

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#14

Post by Suranis » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:51 pm

Right now the totals are

Leave 7,572,204

Remain 7,106,847

Remain is slowly catching up however.

Learn to Swear in Latin. Profanity with class!
https://blogs.transparent.com/latin/lat ... -in-latin/

TexasFilly
Posts: 18205
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2009 12:52 pm

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#15

Post by TexasFilly » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:08 pm

So what happens if the results hold? Another international recession? Will Obama have to shovel the shit out of the ditch on the way out as he did on his way in? What are all of these right wing xenophobic populists going to do when their unemployment rate doubles? Inquiring minds want to know.
I love the poorly educated!!!

I believe Anita Hill! I believe Dr. Ford!

User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 16785
Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:04 am

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#16

Post by Suranis » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:17 pm

I blame the Irish for going over and taking their jobs and votes.

Seriously, Ireland is going to be fucked. the UK is our biggest trading partner.
Learn to Swear in Latin. Profanity with class!
https://blogs.transparent.com/latin/lat ... -in-latin/

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#17

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:26 pm

11:40pm ITV and BBC calls it, Brexit. Wow.

Pound collapsed to the lowest level since 1985, $1.35. Bank liquidity will be the top priority. Equity markets will be wild. This is a disaster, all the hard right nationalists in Germany etc) are ready to roll. Anti-immigration on fire. People are cheering, they don't realize what's going to happen to them. S&P already announced that Brexit equals an immediate credit downgrade of sovereign debt. It's a Trumpian position, who cares about facts. They're about to find out. :(

Image

11:45pm:
Image

And on the "US Election Impact?" part, watch Nigel Farage from the UK Independence Party, it's going to be the same track as here. "This is a victory for the people." 16m votes to win in the UK, 65m in the USA.
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 16785
Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:04 am

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#18

Post by Suranis » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:44 pm

This why voting on something this momentous should (a) be compulsory and (b) have a 60% change margin. 30% +1 of the voters is sheer lunacy.

Fuck watching the news for the next week.
Learn to Swear in Latin. Profanity with class!
https://blogs.transparent.com/latin/lat ... -in-latin/

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: Brexit Vote Thursday 23 June - Market and US Election Impact?

#19

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:56 pm

11:54pm Eastern: Nikkei circuit breakers went off. Down 4% globally, US Dow futures -3.61%
Pound $1.22 -12.68% :shock: I lived there last time it was that rate (1985).
Euro is off over 7% against the Yen, they're going to get pounded too.
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

User avatar
Mr. Peabody
Posts: 209
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:30 am
Occupation: Situationist/ Neu dadaist/ Gutter Taoist/ BPP 10 point programmer/ Triple Gemini

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#20

Post by Mr. Peabody » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:04 am

BBC has also called it for Brexit! Wow




http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world ... pe=article
"What thou lovest well remains,the rest is dross" -Ezra Pound / Pisan Canto LXXXI

User avatar
Butterfly Bilderberg
Posts: 7653
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2009 2:26 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#21

Post by Butterfly Bilderberg » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:04 am

Image
"Pity the nation that acclaims the bully as hero,
and that deems the glittering conqueror bountiful."
- Kahlil Gibran, The Garden of The Prophet

User avatar
Whatever4
Posts: 12130
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:36 am
Location: Mainely in the plain
Occupation: Visiting doctors.

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#22

Post by Whatever4 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:08 am

Holy crap, Batman!
"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
-- Sen. King (I-ME)

User avatar
Plutodog
Posts: 11952
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#23

Post by Plutodog » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:09 am

Supposedly actual leaving is not going to be for a couple-three years.
The only good Bundy is an Al Bundy.

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 9675
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#24

Post by Orlylicious » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:10 am

is this N.A.S.A.R.A?

2019 for full implementation. Moment of destiny. Marketwatch:
11:37 pm
Markets jolted by Brexit vote

Global markets were shaken to their core early Friday morning as the running total of votes in the Brexit referendum put the “leave” campaign in the lead. The Brexiteers were ahead with 51.5% of the votes versus 48.5% for the “remain” side, with 289 out of 382 counting areas having declared results, according to the Sky News results tracker.

Here are some of the biggest market moves:

- The pound slid below $1.35 for the first time since 1985

- Futures for the FTSE 100 sank 7.5% to 5,810

- Futures for U.S. stocks were also sharply lower, with those for the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 487 points, or 2.7%, at 17,425

- The yen rallied past 100 per dollar

- Gold jumped 4.3% to $1,317 an ounce

- Crude oil slumped 5.1% to $47.54 a barrel
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... ey-happen/
Avatar Photo: Rusty, the All American Squirrel, was given Karl P. Koenigs' gun. Rusty: "Sucks to be you, Karl."
Don't miss Fogbow's favorite show, "Mama June: From Not To Hot: "The Road To Intervention"

User avatar
YellowMustard
Posts: 780
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2016 7:47 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#25

Post by YellowMustard » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:24 am

@Ted_Scheinman
"...and in the end, Britain, which had colonized the world, destroyed itself in fantasies that it was being colonized in turn" — historians.
----IANAL----

Call me old fashioned, but I always thought patriotism was something we share, not use against each other. - Mrs. Betty Bowers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xV8HHFtg7w

Post Reply

Return to “Current Events”