TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

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Orlylicious
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TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#1

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:40 am

This morning's update from Bryan Norcross; there are still too many variables to predict what happens in Florida but the track indicates something is going to happen. Prayers for our friends in Puerto Rico, they are still having PTSD there and infrastructure is shaky at best.

Dorian 013.JPG
Bryan Norcross 21 mins ·
MIDDAY TROPICAL UPDATE: TUESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2019

THE THREAT OF WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN FLORIDA IS INCREASING FOR THIS WEEKEND.

HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT DORIAN IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AS IS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FORECAST STILL SHOWS A THREAT TO FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.

Hurricane Hunters are confirming that Dorian is ingesting dry air from the atmosphere around it, which is limiting its intensity. In addition, it ran into the mountainous island of St. Lucia, which had disrupted its circulation.

As it turns toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic moving through the eastern Caribbean, it will be plowing through more dry air and some unfavorable upper winds, so intensification should be slow, at best.

PUERTO RICO & THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Dorian’s winds are expected to reach Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Wednesday, with the worst of the weather arriving late in the day. Dorian is a small storm, so it’s impossible to know which part of those islands will get the strongest winds. The effects will be quite different over a fairly short distance.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Dorian to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the islands. It appears unlikely that Dorian could dramatically strengthen in the very dry atmospheric environment that it will traverse in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, though small storms are notorious for surprising us.

The center of Dorian should pass the islands Wednesday night.

THE BAHAMAS & FLORIDA: The exact track that Dorian takes will make a tremendous difference in the condition of the storm on Thursday when it reaches the southern Bahamas. If the center runs into the 10,000-foot mountains in the Dominican Republic, there is not likely to be much left of the circulation. If, however, the center passes between the islands, an organized circulation is likely to still exist. If it goes over the less tall Puerto Rican mountains, there would be some disruption.

Because slight, unforecastable differences in the angle of the track will dramatically affect Dorian’s strength, it’s impossible to know what the condition of the storm will be as it begins its trek through the Bahamas and likely toward Florida or the Southeast.

The current consensus of the computer forecast models and the National Hurricane Center is that Dorian’s small center will pass over or near the Mona Passage, the gap between the islands and a viable circulation will emerge on the other side.

As long as there it still has an organized circulation, Dorian would have time to strengthen. Preliminarily, the atmospheric pattern looks favorable for strengthening. The atmosphere over the Bahamas is plenty moist, unlike the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a strong tropical storm near the Florida coast over the weekend, but realistically, it could be a hurricane or it could be a weak system. There is no way to know until we see the exact track and the condition of the storm Wednesday night or Thursday.

Also, do not concentrate on the areas the cone seems to point to. Recall that 2/3 of the time, the center should stay within the cone around the 5-day forecast point. That means 1/3 of time, statistically speaking, it would be outside.

We can’t rule out any part of Florida or even the Southeast coast from feeling the effects of Dorian.

The bottom line is, it’s time to prepare and be aware. This is an unusually uncertain situation.

The Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center are:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night
and Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.

3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Six is moving north offshore of the East Coast. It is forecast to intensify into Tropical Storm Erin and affect Atlantic Canada late in the week.

Otherwise, a weak area of low pressure might develop in the western Gulf, and some new tropical waves are moving off of Africa, but nothing threatening is expected to develop this week.
https://www.facebook.com/BryanNorcrossWeather/
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#2

Post by Kendra » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:54 am

I would be good if Dorian stalled over Epstein's islands and laid everything bare :daydream:

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#3

Post by Jeffrey » Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:10 pm

It’s gonna clip the southwest of PR as a tropical storm. Most of the population is concentrated in the northeast. This is basically the least bad scenario you could ask for.

Either way, Sams and Costco ran out of bottled water over the weekend but yesterday grocery stores were back to fully stocked and the panic calmed down.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#4

Post by Kendra » Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:14 pm


Wow! Yet another big storm heading to Puerto Rico. Will it ever end? Congress approved 92 Billion Dollars for Puerto Rico last year, an all time record of its kind for “anywhere.”

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#5

Post by Maybenaut » Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:14 pm

Kendra wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:14 pm

Wow! Yet another big storm heading to Puerto Rico. Will it ever end? Congress approved 92 Billion Dollars for Puerto Rico last year, an all time record of its kind for “anywhere.”
Right. When will it end. If those darned Puerto Ricans would just stop suffering acts of God... what a tool.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#6

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:59 pm

Soon to be seen on Qanon sites: Obama keeps aiming hurricanes at Puerto Rico to make trump look bad.
We’re in NYC this week. ImageImageImage x4

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#7

Post by Jeffrey » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:33 pm

Wow! Yet another big storm heading to Puerto Rico. Will it ever end? Congress approved 92 Billion Dollars for Puerto Rico last year, an all time record of its kind for “anywhere.”
I'm not seeing where Trump is expressing any concern for the residents of Puerto Rico or hoping for minimal loss of life and property in that tweet. :think:

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#8

Post by Dolly » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:41 pm

Trump on major storm approaching Puerto Rico: 'Will it ever end?'

President Trump on Tuesday responded to another tropical storm headed for Puerto Rico by citing an inflated figure he claimed his administration allocated to aid the island's recovery after Hurricane Maria.
.....................
Trump has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. government provided $92 billion in aid for Puerto Rico after it was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017. But several fact-checkers have noted that is not the case.

NBC News reported in July that Congress had allocated roughly $43 billion for Puerto Rico, but that the island had received less than $14 billion as of May. Trump signed a bill in June providing another $1 billion in assistance.
<snip>
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... t-ever-end
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#9

Post by Jeffrey » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:03 pm

Jeffrey wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:10 pm
It’s gonna clip the southwest of PR as a tropical storm. Most of the population is concentrated in the northeast. This is basically the least bad scenario you could ask for.
This was fake news, the new path has it cutting through the middle of the island.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... 0#contents

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#10

Post by tek » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:02 pm

Kendra wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:14 pm

Wow! Yet another big storm heading to Puerto Rico. Will it ever end? Congress approved 92 Billion Dollars for Puerto Rico last year, an all time record of its kind for “anywhere.”
Yeah, a lot of us are wondering 'will it ever end' .. but not about hurricanes..
There's no way back
from there to here

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#11

Post by tek » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:08 pm

Currently it looks like guidance is moving away from our south FL home.. so that's good..

On the other hand, from decades of watching winter storms in our MA home, I've seen the guidance go back to where it was almost every time..

We have a friend who can get our hurricane shutters closed while we're not there, so at least there's that..
There's no way back
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#12

Post by Chilidog » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:26 pm

DORAL..DORAL..DORAL..DORAL..DORAL..DORAL..


well, if it has to make landfall somewhere.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#13

Post by Chilidog » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:27 pm

tek wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:02 pm
Kendra wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:14 pm

Wow! Yet another big storm heading to Puerto Rico. Will it ever end? Congress approved 92 Billion Dollars for Puerto Rico last year, an all time record of its kind for “anywhere.”
Yeah, a lot of us are wondering 'will it ever end' .. but not about hurricanes..
you know he asked if he could just nuke Puerto Rico

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#14

Post by Chilidog » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:52 pm

And in today's news
The Trump administration plans to shift at least $155 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster relief fund to support its policy of returning some migrants to Mexico.

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/08/27/politi ... gle.com%2F

:brickwallsmall:

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#15

Post by Jeffrey » Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:50 pm

Puerto Rico’s new republican governor is defending Trumps tweet and praising his administration: :rotflmao:

https://www.noticel.com/ahora/gobierno/ ... 1113987358

On the other end of the spectrum, the mayor of San Juan went on CNN to blame Trump for every single hurricane related death(using an outdated death estimate):


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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#16

Post by Volkonski » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:11 am

Dorian now forecast to reach hurricane strength by the time it reaches Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#17

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:13 am

Yikes, Cat 3 by Sunday. This was a concern because the El Nino apparently ended. The Bahamas water is really hot and that's a big problem. It's unclear, one model shows it taking a right toward Georgia, but another model (the Euro) shows it slamming into Florida around Vero Beach (mid state). It's still too early but the big takeaways are 1) It's strengthening a lot and 2) the models are having a tough time with this storm. Florida is soaked (almost 40" of rain in Miami so far, about 17" more than usual).

Why the fu*ck Donald, instead of preparing, is badmouthing and causing trouble is typically awful.

Here's Weather Underground's model map page: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ?map=model
Dorian 11am Models.JPG

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#18

Post by TexasFilly » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:21 am

Yikes! My youngest lives in Miami. Now that the storm may impact Fat Nixon's electoral votes, maybe he will stop this deplorable taunting.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#19

Post by Volkonski » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:04 pm

Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#20

Post by Jeffrey » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:46 pm

The first Dorian related death in PR has been reported:


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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#21

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:00 pm

It'll be another day before the models come together... scary stuff. 93mph gust in St Thomas, love that island, they are getting the right side of the storm which is much worse.





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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#22

Post by tek » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:13 pm

I do not like that track, Sam I Am.

That goes right over our new FL house.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#23

Post by Volkonski » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:48 pm

And then heads toward TX and LA. :(
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#24

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:50 pm

Central Florida is getting ready:








Here's Ft Lauderdale's hurricane prep page: https://www.fortlauderdale.gov/departme ... eparedness
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#25

Post by Slim Cognito » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:34 pm

We're on the west coast. Looks like we'll get wet but should miss the bad stuff. (fingers crossed) Orly, are you in Florida? You can come here, if you need a place to run.
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