TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#351

Post by Maybenaut » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:19 pm

Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:56 pm
This seems like a semantic argument over the definition of hit. 39 mph wind justifies the inclusion of Alabama in warnings. Birmingham should not have tweeted what it did before the official forecast eliminated the possibility of impact in Alabama.
I think the National Weather Service in Birmingham knew what the official forecast was, and what the potential for impact on the State was at the time it made its tweet.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#352

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:20 pm

Maybenaut wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:19 pm
Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:56 pm
This seems like a semantic argument over the definition of hit. 39 mph wind justifies the inclusion of Alabama in warnings. Birmingham should not have tweeted what it did before the official forecast eliminated the possibility of impact in Alabama.
I think the National Weather Service in Birmingham knew what the official forecast was, and what the potential for impact on the State was at the time it made its tweet.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#353

Post by Sunrise » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:37 pm

Orlylicious wrote:
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:04 am

Assuming EGOTUS was kept up to date on Dorian’s path, the storm moved VERY quickly toward the east from 10:51 when he sent his tweet to the path shown here at 10:58. This is nowhere close to Alabama.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#354

Post by Jeffrey » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:54 pm

The official NOAA forecast from 8 am the day of Trumps tweet put Alabama at a 5% chance of tropical storm winds, down from a peak of 30% two days earlier. Alabama was not excluded until two days after the tweets.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/D ... bs_34_F120

Trumps tweet was consistent with the official forecast, the Birmingham tweet was not.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#355

Post by annrc » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:30 pm

But, the black marker? That makes no sense.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#356

Post by Maybenaut » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:32 pm

Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:54 pm
The official NOAA forecast from 8 am the day of Trumps tweet put Alabama at a 5% chance of tropical storm winds, down from a peak of 30% two days earlier. Alabama was not excluded until two days after the tweets.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/D ... bs_34_F120

Trumps tweet was consistent with the official forecast, the Birmingham tweet was not.
A 5 percent chance of tropical storm force winds does not mean Alabama "will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated," which is what Trump tweeted, and which started the potential panic that the NWS office in Birmingham was trying to tamp down when they said "Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east."

The Washington Post quoted the Director of the National Weather Service today backing the NWS Birmingham tweet:
“They did what any office would do,” Uccellini told the crowd of hundreds of meteorologists. “With an emphasis they deemed essential, they shut down what they thought were rumors. They quickly acted to reassure their partners, the media and the public — with strong language — that there was no threat.”

“They did that with one thing in mind: public safety,” Uccellini said. “And they responded not knowing where this information was coming from. Only later, [when] the retweets and the politically based comments came into their office, did they learn the source of this information.”
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#357

Post by Jeffrey » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:07 pm

Birmingham shouldn’t have tweeted that Alabama would feel “no impact” or “faced no threat” when the official forecast put it at 5%. The reprimand is completely justified.

Trumps wording wasn’t the best but the argument being made here that states facing 5% chance of impact shouldn’t be included in a warning by the president isn’t defensible.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#358

Post by Maybenaut » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:16 pm

Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:07 pm
Birmingham shouldn’t have tweeted that Alabama would feel “no impact” or “faced no threat” when the official forecast put it at 5%. The reprimand is completely justified.

Trumps wording wasn’t the best but the argument being made here that states facing 5% chance of impact shouldn’t be included in a warning by the president isn’t defensible.
So Trump gets a pass for using wording that isn't "the best," but the National Weather Service, the experts on weather forecasting, don't. Got it.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#359

Post by Dan1100 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:50 pm

Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:07 pm
Birmingham shouldn’t have tweeted that Alabama would feel “no impact” or “faced no threat” when the official forecast put it at 5%. The reprimand is completely justified.

Trumps wording wasn’t the best but the argument being made here that states facing 5% chance of impact shouldn’t be included in a warning by the president isn’t defensible.
Maybe it is my Midwestern lackadaisical attitude toward stormy weather, but unless it is going to blow over 50 mph or so, that is "no impact" as in don't bother to bring in the trashcans or lawn furniture.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#360

Post by Jeffrey » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:52 pm

Saying that Alabama faced a likely impact is compatible with the official 5% forecast. Saying it faced 0% chance is not compatible.

The Bahamas being hit by 185 mph wind was a 5% possibility at one point. The rule of thumb is better safe than sorry. I don’t want Biden excluding states or territories from warnings if it’s “only a 5% chance” either.


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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#362

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:22 pm

a 5% chance isn't a likely impact scenario. The fact is trump claimed it was going to be hit harder than originally thought. 5% isn't harder than originally thought. Trump could have acted like a man and admitted he made an error when he tweeted that but instead decided to edit two weather maps to try to rationalize his error. He then had Wilbur Ross threaten NOAA employees with a firing if they contradicted him. Is this how a president should act?

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#363

Post by RoadScholar » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:28 pm

Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:52 pm
Saying that Alabama faced a likely impact is compatible with the official 5% forecast. Saying it faced 0% chance is not compatible.

The Bahamas being hit by 185 mph wind was a 5% possibility at one point. The rule of thumb is better safe than sorry. I don’t want Biden excluding states or territories from warnings if it’s “only a 5% chance” either.
Wrong. Simply wrong. Trump warned of severe impact for Alabama. And he did so when the official forecast service predicted no possibility of damage.

But you go on and argue that the Low-IQ Orange Messiah knows more than highly educated career meteorological experts, and didn’t just make the kind of stupid mistake he has made countless times, like describing India as being in the Middle East, or claiming wind turbine noise causes cancer, and then bullying people who know better into covering for His Wrongness. :roll:
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#364

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:06 pm

RoadScholar wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:28 pm
Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:52 pm
Saying that Alabama faced a likely impact is compatible with the official 5% forecast. Saying it faced 0% chance is not compatible.

The Bahamas being hit by 185 mph wind was a 5% possibility at one point. The rule of thumb is better safe than sorry. I don’t want Biden excluding states or territories from warnings if it’s “only a 5% chance” either.
Wrong. Simply wrong. Trump warned of severe impact for Alabama. And he did so when the official forecast service predicted no possibility of damage.

But you go on and argue that the Low-IQ Orange Messiah knows more than highly educated career meteorological experts, and didn’t just make the kind of stupid mistake he has made countless times, like describing India as being in the Middle East, or claiming wind turbine noise causes cancer, and then bullying people who know better into covering for His Wrongness. :roll:
Bullying people to cover his wrongness? Who does that? :roll:

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#365

Post by tek » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:14 am

Jeffrey wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:52 pm
Saying that Alabama faced a likely impact is compatible with the official 5% forecast. Saying it faced 0% chance is not compatible.

The Bahamas being hit by 185 mph wind was a 5% possibility at one point. The rule of thumb is better safe than sorry. I don’t want Biden excluding states or territories from warnings if it’s “only a 5% chance” either.
The infamous tweet was at 2:51PM on 9/1. Let's get everything in one place..
tweet-3.jpg
Given your map link above and your 5% theory, why didn't Trump warn of serious impact to VA, MD, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, and MA??
wind-4.jpg
For completeness, the track forecast in place at the time of that tweet:
track-5.jpg
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#366

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:29 am

Just my arrogant observation from my 55+ years spent in the midwest, and in support of Dan's post upthread, a 39 mph wind is just another spring day on the plains of Kansas.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#367

Post by Jeffrey » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:52 am

RoadScholar wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:28 pm
Wrong. Simply wrong. Trump warned of severe impact for Alabama. And he did so when the official forecast service predicted no possibility of damage.
I mean anyone can read the tweet, he didn't single out Alabama for a "severe impact". He said the storm would hit harder than anticipated, which was a correct paraphrase of what NOAA was saying that day, then listed the states that would be affected. It certainly could have been worded better but you go to storms with the president you have and not the one you want.

And it might be geographical bias, but tropical storm winds still means the power goes out and some flooding.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#368

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:09 am

Maybe you can get Foggy to fire us if we don't agree with you, even though we know better.

Listen up:

If he had tweeted what he did a couple days earlier, you would be right. But he didn't. But now both of you insist he was, but here in the fact-based community, he wasn't. Those are the facts.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#369

Post by Gregg » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:39 am

Slim Cognito wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:27 pm
So NOAA is now Pravda Weather. Good to know.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#370

Post by Gregg » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:46 am

That 5% map band touches Tennessee, West Virginia Pennsylvania and New York, too.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#371

Post by Sunrise » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:15 am

Kendra wrote:
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:31 am



Now I’m thoroughly confused. The above post, which Kendra made at 11:30 last Sunday, is the one I was referring to when I posted # 353 above. Now tek just showed the same tweet, but with a time of 2:51. How is this possible and/or what am I missing here? :confused:

Either way, I think Jeffrey and EGOTUS are wrong and the rest of us are right.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, ?

#372

Post by tek » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:30 am

Sunrise wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:15 am
Kendra wrote:
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:31 am



Now I’m thoroughly confused. The above post, which Kendra made at 11:30 last Sunday, is the one I was referring to when I posted # 353 above. Now tek just showed the same tweet, but with a time of 2:51. How is this possible and/or what am I missing here? :confused:

Either way, I think Jeffrey and EGOTUS are wrong and the rest of us are right.
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#373

Post by much ado » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:33 am

Yes, the time stamp on the tweet is converted to the time zone of the person who is viewing the tweet.

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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#374

Post by Sunrise » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:02 pm

Thanks. I never thought of that. :oops:
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Re: TS/Hurricane Dorian -- Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Carolinas (Not Alabama, Donald.)

#375

Post by Maybenaut » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:08 pm

Jeffrey wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:52 am
RoadScholar wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:28 pm
Wrong. Simply wrong. Trump warned of severe impact for Alabama. And he did so when the official forecast service predicted no possibility of damage.
I mean anyone can read the tweet, he didn't single out Alabama for a "severe impact". He said the storm would hit harder than anticipated, which was a correct paraphrase of what NOAA was saying that day, then listed the states that would be affected. It certainly could have been worded better but you go to storms with the president you have and not the one you want.

And it might be geographical bias, but tropical storm winds still means the power goes out and some flooding.
And this is why, in my opinion, it was, in fact, "defensible" for the experts at the National Weather Service in Birmingham to issue the statement that they did. He said Alabama was among the states to be hit "(much) harder than anticipated" by "one of the largest hurricanes ever" when that was simply not the case. According to the Post article I linked earlier, the NWS in Birmingham was worried about panic flowing from misinformation, even though at the time they made the tweet they did not know the source was POTUS.

Yeah, you go to storms with the president you have. But you also go to storms with the Weather Service that you have. That's why we have a National Weather Service. Unlike the president, they're experts in weather forecasting.

Incidentally, if anyone is interested in reading about the politicization of weather forecasting, I recommend Isaac's Storm by Erik Larsen (same author who wrote Devil in the White City). What was then the Weather Bureau refused to accept as accurate the hurricane warnings coming from catholic monks in Cuba because they were catholic. And monks. I read the book back when it came out. I remember thinking how nice it is to live in an enlightened society where the weather -- something that is both politically neutral and extraordinarily important to get right -- would ever be the subject of the sort of anti-intellectualism as happened back in Isaac Cline's day. What a Pollyanna I was.
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