It's Biden's race to lose in Iowa – but he should beware the rise of Warren
The former vice-president has many friendships here but the Massachusetts senator’s populist message is hitting home
Going into the second set of presidential debates, the field in Iowa looks like this as the corn tassels and the Iowa State Fair approaches: it’s Joe Biden’s race to lose, Elizabeth Warren is on his tail with a populist screed and anything can happen before the first presidential winnowing point in the caucuses next February.
All polls show Biden with a lead beyond the margin of error, including Iowa. Most polls show Warren and Harris moving up after the first rounds of debate, and each posted prodigious fundraising totals for the most recent quarter – bested only by Pete Buttigieg.
John Hickenlooper and John Delaney last week raced across the state on bicycles during the Des Moines Register’s Annual Great Bike Ride Across Iowa, where pork chops on a stick are standard fare. Beto O’Rourke is all over the state. Kirsten Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar were trying to break through at a women’s forum sponsored by organized labor the same week. It’s everywhere all the time. Somebody could pop out from the crowd as people actually start to pay attention.
Warren has the biggest staff in Iowa. She is well-tuned to the populist base of the state Democratic party, which distrusts Wall Street and Washington, and has made strong pitches to forgotten rural and riverside manufacturing towns left behind by world trade.
Biden has been campaigning in Iowa since 1988. He has many long friendships, including former governor Tom Vilsack, who served as agriculture secretary in the Obama/Biden administration. Biden recently released a rural platform that has Vilsack written all over it. Biden will have the big dogs in Des Moines. But when he reaches out to old friends elsewhere he gets no answer. Late to the game, many of the best organizers already were snatched up. He hasn’t lit much among the lonely little burgs along the blacktops, while Warren launched her campaign in red western Iowa.
Harris has not made Iowa her central play as O’Rourke, Delaney (who had staff organized on the ground a year ago, before anyone) and, increasingly, Buttigieg have. Although she bids well, she has not built the sort of organization key to winning a caucus state and has shied away from places like Storm Lake far from the madding crowd. She is making her case in South Carolina, Nevada and California.
The Guardian OpEd - Art Cullen
Gabbert started blitzing the airways here this morning. Streyer has gone silent. You'd think they'd be saving their funds until winter. In six months the people are going to be saying, "who?"
Trump: Er hat eine größere Ente als ich.
Putin: Du bist kleiner als ich.
Putin: Du bist kleiner als ich.
Most of them won't be running anymore by winter. Once the polling comes in after this week's debates, a handful will drop their campaigns because they can't get into the 3rd debate. By October there will be less than 10 running. That's when they report their quarterly financial stuff.
I'm hoping the next set of debates thins the group out considerably.
"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." -- Thomas Paine
WaPo - Paul Waldman
The Iowa State Fair is everything that’s wrong with presidential politics
Today begins the annual extravaganza of Americana known as the Iowa State Fair, which is probably not all that different from other state fairs, except for one thing: the presence of presidential candidates. But for all its wholesomeness, the Iowa State Fair is everything that’s wrong with presidential politics.
That’s not to say that the State Fair isn’t an entertaining spectacle. Though the Fried Butter on a Stick (literally a deep-fried stick of butter) is sadly no longer available, this year’s fair features no fewer than 69 foods that are served on a stick, including Snickers in a Waffle on a Stick, Peanut Butter and Jelly on a Stick, and the Slopper, a foot-long hot dog with corn chips, chili and cheese sauce. On a stick.
If you’re looking for something a little healthier, you can try Caprese Salad on a Stick, though I assume that in order to affix it to the stick they have to batter and deep-fry it.
But the reason those of us outside the state pay attention to the Iowa State Fair is of course the fact that it comes a mere six months before the Iowa caucuses. So no fewer than 22 Democratic presidential candidates will be speaking at the Des Moines Register Political Soapbox, a booth set up at the fair by the newspaper, at which candidates stand on bales of hay to deliver a pitch to people they hope will attend the caucuses in February.
If that were all that went on, there wouldn’t be much wrong with it, other than the fact that the good people of the Hawkeye State shouldn’t receive all this attention and pandering they currently get every four years. Not because they’re particularly unworthy but because no one state deserves it.
Scenes from Iowa's rowdy, anti-Trump Wing Ding
In a shift, Democrats train their attacks on the president, not each other.
CLEAR LAKE, Iowa — There was a moment of silence, friendly candidate-to-candidate photo bombs, even an extended exchange of hugs between candidates.
On Friday, the same crowd of 2020 Democrats that ripped each other apart on the national debate stage in Detroit transformed into a paragon of “Iowa nice” at the Wing Ding — making their best pitches to potential Iowa caucus-goers without eviscerating each other.
Instead, the 22 candidates unloaded on President Donald Trump in a parade of speeches that framed the fight for the White House as a battle against hate and bigotry. Invoking last weekend's mass shootings, they joined in calling for stronger gun laws. And they called for different approach to immigration.
The event came as the primary season in the first-in-the-nation voting state kicked into high gear with start of the annual state fair. The enthusiasm of voters was palpable: thousands packed into the historic venue, which at times grew so loud that speakers had to yell to be heard.
Elizabeth Warren circles in Iowa as Joe Biden stumbles
CLEAR LAKE, Iowa — With fake palm trees and a huge American flag as a backdrop, Senator Elizabeth Warren skipped onstage, microphone in hand, and barreled through her proposal to help rural America. In parting, she flapped her arms in a lightning-quick dance as Dolly Parton’s “Nine to Five” played her off.
“We’ve had enough of an America where government works better and better for a thinner and thinner slice at the top — 2020 is our chance,” Warren said to the crowd with her trademark bouncy energy.
Right behind her, former vice president Joe Biden trod to the microphone, note cards in hand, and delivered a somber rejoinder, casting President Trump as an existential threat to a grieving and divided nation.
“Not a single thing can happen,” he said, “unless we defeat Donald Trump.”
It was the end of a long string of candidate speeches Friday night at the Iowa Democratic Wing Ding, a marquee party fund-raiser that, along with the just-opened Iowa State Fair, essentially marks the beginning of the fall campaign season. It was also a rare almost-meeting between Biden, who consistently tops the polls among Democratic presidential candidates, and Warren, the ascendant liberal angling to knock him from his perch in this key state.
“The caucuses aren’t today, but if they were today, you’d have to think we saw the likely two top finishers back to back,” said Kurt Meyer, chair of the Tri-County Democrats.
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"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
-- Sen. King (I-ME)
-- Sen. King (I-ME)
Des Moines Register
Elizabeth Warren, met with the largest Soapbox crowd so far, touts her 2-cent ultra-millionaires tax
When U.S. Sen Elizabeth Warren told fairgoers what America could fund with her ultra-millionaires tax on Saturday, the crowd responded with a chant.
"Two cents!" "Two cents!"
Her plan, which would impose a 2% tax on fortunes over $50 million, would fund universal child care and pre-kindergarten, provide tuition-free college, invest $50 billion into historically black colleges, and cancel student loan debt for an estimated 42 million people, she said on the Des Moines Register Political Soapbox at the Iowa State Fair on Saturday.
"We could do all that and still have a couple of hundred billion dollars left over. That should tell you about what's broken in America," Warren said. "Every time we see a budget, it’s really just a statement of our values. Is it more important to leave the two cents for the bazillionaires or use that two cents to invest in all of our kids?
"Well, I’m here because I think we ought to be investing in all of our kids," she said.
The senator from Massachusetts was met with the biggest crowd of the Register's Soapbox so far in 2019, easily drawing thousands of fairgoers Saturday. Many stood behind the stage and spilled onto the Grand Concourse. A woman in the front row seemed to stand in adoration of Warren, and was brought nearly to tears as the Democratic presidential candidate spoke.
New York Times
Adding:On Politics: What we learned in Iowa
Over the course of the weekend, my colleagues and I spoke to dozens of voters, activists and officials, and so many candidates. Here’s what we learned about the state of the Democratic primary contest:
• The race has firmly separated into tiers. Tier one: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Mr. Sanders. Tier two: Ms. Klobuchar, Cory Booker and (maybe) Pete Buttigieg. Then, there’s everyone else. Here’s how Sue Dvorsky, an influential Democratic activist who endorsed Ms. Harris this weekend, put it: “There’s a tier of likely. There’s a tier of possibles. And then there’s a tier of unlikely.” Does that mean no one can climb the ranks? Of course not. But in such a crowded field, it won’t be easy.
• Ms. Warren is having a moment. In our discussions with voters, nearly everyone said they were considering backing Ms. Warren. She got the biggest crowd at the state fair and huge applause at a party fund-raising dinner on Friday night, and attracted hundreds to her events across the state. Of course, a summer surge doesn’t necessarily mean a winter win. Just ask Howard Dean.
• Mr. Biden leads the polls. But that may be shifting. As Allison Engel, a former Democratic aide in the state who now volunteers for the party, told me: “He’s the candidate that people think other people are going to vote for.” An informal survey of county chairs found plenty of concerns about his age and agility. Many Democratic insiders attribute his lead to name identification. They suspect his candidacy could fade, particularly if he keeps misspeaking, as he did several times this weekend.
New York Daily News: Iowa corn poll may signal trouble for Joe Biden.
Biden, Castro among 2020 hopefuls to attend Iowa LGBTQ forum
At least four Democratic presidential hopefuls — Joe Biden, Julián Castro, Joe Sestak and Marianne Williamson — are expected to attend an LGBTQ forum in Iowa on Sept. 20.
The event at Coe College in Cedar Rapids will be hosted by One Iowa, a statewide LGBTQ advocacy group; The Gazette, a daily in Eastern Iowa; and The Advocate, an LGBTQ magazine. The candidates will address the audience before a question-and-answer session with the three moderators, one from each of the host organizations.
Courtney Reyes, the interim director of One Iowa, said the event will "focus on LGBTQ people in the heartland and their needs."
“The overarching narrative that LGBTQ people in the U.S. live in urban coastal areas ignores the millions of LGBTQ individuals living and working in the middle of the country,” Reyes wrote in a statement. “We look forward to hearing what the presidential candidates have to say to this often overlooked, but politically powerful community.”
The New Yorker - Benjamin Wallace-Wells
Adding:Elizabeth Warren Sells Populism to Professionals
There is a distinct flavor to an Elizabeth Warren campaign event. The energy will be high. The candidate may take the stage at a run; at intervals during her speech, she will clench a fist, thrust it skyward, and cry out, “Yes!” The program will unfold so punctually that certain amused reporters will time its elements with stopwatches on their phones, the way old-timey football writers measured the hang time on punts. When it is time for audience questions, Warren will call out ticket numbers from a raffle-style blind draw (“Four-four-four-two? Who has four-four-four-two? Oh, there you are!”) with a little bit of tension in her voice: Who will ask the questions, and how long they will take to get to the microphone? They do not take long; Warren’s crowds want to impress her. At the end, the campaign’s well-documented selfie line will form, and everyone who wants a photo with Warren will get one. The country can’t really be slipping toward a sloppy authoritarianism if there are this many adults devoted to doing all the little things carefully, can it? Not every Warren event takes place in New England, but they all suggest a New England of the mind.
On Wednesday afternoon, Warren did happen to be in New England, on a Franconia, New Hampshire, farm with a majestic view of the White Mountains. Five hundred white folding chairs had been neatly laid out on the lawn, as if awaiting a wedding. The crowd was a bit bigger than that (“The count is seven hundred,” a press aide whispered to me), and, from walking through it, I would guess that the audience was more than ninety-five per cent white. There were retirees, students, schoolteachers, a few young families on vacation. A youngish man with a blond ponytail wore a T-shirt that read “Warren has a plan for that.” That was the slogan Warren settled on this past winter and spring, when she was introducing a new policy idea seemingly every week, and steadily climbing in the polls. This posture, the politician as expert, seemed to offer some reassurance to Democratic voters that there was an adult in charge. “A woman of substance,” a warmup speaker called Warren, a candidate with “reasonable plans.”
But Warren does not sound, as Hillary Clinton often did, like someone whose aim is to seem reasonable. She runs hotter than that. In her stump speech, she does not read out inequality statistics, as Bernie Sanders does, but instead turns them into an emotional drama, at first through the by-now-familiar story of her mother donning her lone formal dress to apply for her first job, at the age of fifty, to save the family house. Warren remembers her mother crying outside her bedroom door each night and being obviously “terrified.” In Franconia, when Warren addressed the threat of climate change, she did not talk about degrees of warming but about the parental experience of “vulnerability.” (It reminded me a little bit of the way that George W. Bush talked about the threat of terrorism, as part of a successful effort to persuade suburban so-called security moms, in 2004.)
She is running a famously single-minded campaign, with an emphasis on wealth and corruption. In Franconia, the word she kept returning to was “money”; her villain was not Donald Trump, whom she referred to only once, in a parenthetical, before taking questions, but the Koch brothers. (“Oh! You’ve heard of them,” she said, in a tone of mock surprise.) Democracy, she said, has been captured by politics, and politics by greed; big, structural change is required. Toward the end of her stump speech, Warren said, heavily, “Boy, we’re also running out of time on this democracy.” I glanced out at the crowd. Seven hundred people were sitting attentively, in neat rows of white chairs—men in late-model Birkenstocks and women in navy jumpsuits—ready to line up to ask precise and well-planned questions. It was the picture of a prosperous, working democracy with plenty of time.
Boston Globe: Elizabeth Warren is a hit in N.H.
Native American voters, once overlooked, seek role for 2020
WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic presidential candidates will descend on Iowa next week to do something that Native Americans say doesn’t happen enough: court their vote.
At least seven White House hopefuls have said they’ll attend a forum in Sioux City on Monday and Tuesday named for longtime Native American activist Frank LaMere, who died in June. Tribal leaders and citizens will talk with candidates about issues including health care, education and violence against National American women.
Several candidates attending the forum, including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson, have issued platforms dedicated to the needs of indigenous people. Marcella LeBeau, a 99-year-old registered Democrat and a citizen of the Two Kettles Band of the Lakota, said that’s a change from the past when politicians largely overlooked Native American issues.
“We’re like a third-world country,” she said. “No one really listens to us.”
Many Native Americans live in “hard-to-count” rural areas and are not reflected in the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, so the census cannot accurately measure their voter registration as it would for black, white, Asian and Hispanic citizens. Census estimates say Native Americans make up around 1.7% — or 5.3 million — of the U.S. population, and suggest that more than 3.7 million Native Americans are of voting age.
As more Native Americans gain access to the polls, they may be a powerful asset for candidates. Richard Witmer, a political scientist from Creighton University who specializes in American Indian politics and policy, said the Native American vote can swing a close national election.
“The Native vote is absolutely going to matter. It’s going to matter a lot,” Witmer said of next year’s race.
Well, I dont know where to look, but there is a presidential statement on Presidential Proclamation on National Native American Heritage Month, 2018
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential ... onth-2018/
The word Indian appears 11 times and "American Indian" appears 6. "Native American" appears 11 times.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential ... onth-2018/
The word Indian appears 11 times and "American Indian" appears 6. "Native American" appears 11 times.
The difference between the Middle Ages, and the Age of the Internet, is that in the Middle Ages no-one thought the Earth was flat.
Warren offers public apology over claim to tribal heritage
SIOUX CITY, Iowa — Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren offered a public apology Monday to Native Americans over her past claim to tribal heritage, directly tackling an area that’s proved to be her biggest political liability.
“Like anyone who has been honest with themselves, I know I have made mistakes,” the Massachusetts senator said at the start of her appearance at a forum on Native American issues in this pivotal early-voting state. “I am sorry for the harm I have caused.”
Her past claim to tribal ancestry, which culminated in her release of a DNA analysis last year, had drawn criticism from some Native Americans and dogged her 2020 campaign in its early weeks.
But Warren, who last week released a detailed policy agenda to help Native Americans, has since climbed in the polls.
Warren drew a standing ovation from the audience at the kickoff of the two-day forum, which is drawing 10 of her White House rivals. The event promises to test Warren’s ability to move beyond the flap over her discussions of her heritage, for which she had previously apologized privately to the Cherokee Nation.
Elizabeth Warren’s First Campaign Event In Minnesota Draws Her Biggest Crowd Yet
About 12,000 people showed up at the Democratic presidential hopeful’s town hall at Macalester College in St. Paul, according to her campaign.
ST. PAUL, Minn. ― Sen Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) on Monday drew in the largest crowd of her presidential campaign tour yet, attracting thousands of energized supporters to her town hall at Macalester College.
“Hello, Minnesota!” the 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful shouted as she took the stage Monday evening. “Dang, it is good to be here.”
Though the event was billed as a town hall, it more closely resembled a rally once Warren announced the audience Q&A portion of the event would be scrapped given the massive turnout. Her campaign estimated 12,000 people were in attendance.
A volunteer with the grassroots organizing group Minnesota for Warren told HuffPost that the event was scheduled to be held in the college’s field house but was moved outside given the large number of people who RSVP’d.
Iowa's impact on 2020: Warren is ahead of the pack
Iowa is small but it kicks off the quadrennial race for the leader of the most powerful nation in the world.
Iowa is in the middle of America’s heartland and every four years it is the epicenter of American politics. Iowa may not be the state of stage and screen fame where the “corn grows as high as an elephant’s eye,” but there is a lot of corn in the state and there are many more presidential candidates campaigning there than in Oklahoma.
Corndogs and candidates. Silly things and serious things. Deep-fried turkey on a stick and economic agendas for rural America. It was all there at the Iowa State Fair in recent weeks.
Just about every Democratic presidential candidate made the trek to the state fair as did the political media. It’s a wonder there was any room for Iowans.
Attendance at the fair gave the Democratic hopefuls the chance to tour the state that is the first in the nation to choose delegates to the Democratic National Convention. It also provided the candidates the opportunity to criticize President Trump for his trade policies they said hurt farmers and to release their own platforms for rural economic development.
In most states, the presidential campaign is an afterthought but in Iowa it’s the real thing. Democratic aspirants were as thick as flies in the summer heat in Iowa and many Iowa Democrats have already met the candidates. My guess is that many Oklahoma Democrats are only dimly aware there is a race for president.
Joe Biden airs first TV ad in Iowa
(CNN) Joe Biden is airing the first TV ad of his 2020 presidential campaign in Iowa Tuesday as part of a six-figure television and digital ad purchase in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
The sixty-second television ad entitled "Bones" highlights the former vice president's work alongside former President Barack Obama and paints President Donald Trump as "an erratic, vicious, bullying president."
"We know in our bones this election is different. The stakes are higher. The threat more serious," a narrator says in the ad. "We have to beat Donald Trump and all the polls agree Joe Biden is the strongest Democrat to do the job. No one is more qualified."
"For eight years President Obama and Vice President Biden were an administration America could be proud of, our allies could trust, and our kids could look up to," the narrator says. "Together they worked to save the American economy, to pass the historic Affordable Care Act, protecting over 100 million Americans with pre-existing conditions."
The ad, which is being released at the start of Biden's sixth visit to the Hawkeye state, will run in the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Quad Cities and Sioux City markets and will be accompanied by a digital ad campaign totaling nearly six-figures over the next few weeks, according to the campaign.
Biden joins California Sen. Kamala Harris in the list of top tier candidates to release television ads in Iowa this election cycle.