Young Voters Not Excited About Joe Biden
The Democratic front-runner has been slow to embrace the bloc. And the feeling is mutual. ...
"We are looking forward to working with you," [Symone] Sanders said. "You all are going to be the ones who are really going to get this thing done."
She left them with this piece of advice: "Y'all are powerful. If you go to the ballot box, things will change. There is not a more powerful voting bloc."
This is true generally of voters younger than the baby boomers: Voters age 18 to 53, including Gen Z, millennials and Gen X, cast more votes than baby boomers and other older generations during the 2018 midterm election, according to the Pew Research Center, 62.2 million votes to 60.1 million votes. The turnout marked the second election in a row in which younger voters eclipsed older voters. The majority of Gen Z and young millennial voters, including the nearly 24 million students who are either expected to attend college in fall 2019 or expected to graduate from high school during the 2019-20 school year, tend to vote Democratic, and candidates have strategically tapped into their energy, influence and organizing power to propel their campaigns.
As it stands, the majority of young Democratic voters are flocking to Sanders and Warren early in the primary, and taking good looks at Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Many Democratic strategists and pollsters say, however, that Biden's lackluster support likely won't be a problem because young voters turn out in low numbers for the primary, a process awash with voters over 50. If that holds true in 2020, they say, the vice president's nomination may be all but secured barring a major disqualifying gaffe.
But some of those same strategists warn that not making a good-faith effort to engage with young voters on issues they care about during the primary under the assumption that they will ultimately support whoever the Democratic nominee is creates enormous risk for the general election.
Turnout Among College Students Doubled for Midterms
Washington Post: “College students across the United States more than doubled their rate of voting between the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections, according to a study published Thursday by Tufts University — a dramatic spike in political engagement that could draw unprecedented attention to these voters in next year’s presidential election.”
“The study found that 40% of students who are eligible to vote cast ballots last year, up from 19% in 2014.”
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren And Andrew Yang Gain Most Under-35 Support In NBC/’WSJ’ Poll
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday via DocumentCloud reveals that Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang received the most support from voters under 35-years-old. In particular, Sanders received 33 percent support, Warren received 25 percent, and Yang received 11 percent. On the lower end are Joe Biden with 10 percent support, Kamala Harris with 7 percent, and Pete Buttigieg with 5 percent.
A similar survey from Emerson College showed Sanders, Biden, and Yang drawing the most support from 18-to-29-year-olds. Sanders drew the most with 29 percent support, Biden pulled 23 percent, and Yang drew 17 percent. In addition, a recent Emerson College poll of New Hampshire revealed that Biden, Sanders, and Yang were the top three in terms of performance in hypothetical head-to-heads against Donald Trump. Biden had a 10-point lead, Yang had an eight-point advantage, and Sanders had a five-point edge over the president.
Warren shows signs of broadening her base
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) appears to be growing her share of support from black voters, who have been slow to warm to her campaign.
A new poll from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal found Warren in second place among black voters with 13 percent support, her best showing in any poll to date. That’s up from 8 percent in the previous survey from July, although the 5-point swing is within the poll’s margin of error.
An Economist–YouGov survey released Wednesday found Warren’s support among black voters at 11 percent, up from 5 percent in July. And the latest Politico–Morning Consult survey found Warren gaining 5 points among black voters.
Former Vice President Joe Biden still dominates the field with black voters, and he’ll be the favorite to win the nomination unless that changes. Biden pulled 49 percent support from black voters in the NBC-Journal poll, a 36-point lead over Warren.
But Warren is showing signs of life here after public opinion surveys from earlier in the cycle showed her languishing in the single digits among black voters, raising criticism from some quarters that her appeal was limited to wealthy white liberals on the coasts. ...
“Black voters are pragmatic, and just like anyone else they want to be with a winner,” said one South Carolina Democrat, who said Warren’s crowds at rallies in the Palmetto State are among the most diverse in the field.
BuzzFeed News: Young Black Voters In The Carolinas Say They Like What Bernie Sanders Is Saying About Racial Justice
Even if they're not committed to backing Bernie, young black voters who came to see him think Sanders has improved since 2016. "He’s one of the few that’s been open to educating himself on that."
Axios: Focus group women like Warren's policies more than her
APPLETON, Wis. — Elizabeth Warren's left-wing populism is gaining popularity among some swing voters here, but they're not ready to embrace her for 2020.
Both Biden and Warren Do Well with White Working Class
A new Democracy Corps (D) survey finds Democrats have two electable candidates at the moment — Joe Biden (leads by 8 points) and Elizabeth Warren (leads by 7), with Bernie Sanders at the edge (5 percent).
“One of the reasons both Biden and Warren are proving to be electable is the surprising result with white working class voters. While Biden has more of a working class base in the Democratic primary, the 2020 election is being shaped by bigger forces. In this combined sample of white working class women (643 respondents), Biden loses by 9 points (50 to 41 percent) and Warren by 10 (51 to 41 percent). Both are gains on 2018 and a dramatic shift from 2016. That means the 13-point shift to the Democrats in the off-year has continued another 4 points now.”
“They both lose to Trump among white working class men (combined sample of 562) by a much bigger margin — 31 points and 33 points respectively. As daunting as that appears, the trend with men is encouraging as well. Democrats gained 14 points in 2018 and Biden would take those gains 3 points further. Warren holds the 2018 gains, as there is no evidence of working class voters going back to the 2016 Trump margins.”
Key takeaway: “Both Biden and Warren perform comparably with the white working class, and both make impressive gains with the women. That may be the unfolding story in the 2020 elections.”
Warren gets ‘dramatic shift’ in support from black voters
After struggling to win over African-Americans in the early stages of the primary season, polls show the Massachusetts senator is gaining traction with a pivotal constituency.
One element of Elizabeth Warren’s surge in the polls is likely to strike fear in her top Democratic rivals — her rising support among African-Americans.
After struggling to win over black voters in the early stages of the primary, the Massachusetts senator appears to be gaining ground with a demographic that will play a pivotal role in determining the nomination. ...
Those advances have played a role in her surging overall numbers, which have seen Warren expand her lead over the African-American candidates in the primary — Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker — and even overtake Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders in some state and national polls.
“It’s certainly a dramatic shift that had to be noticed by the Biden campaign — and also Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg,” said Tim Malloy, Qunnipiac’s polling analyst. “Other [candidates] aren’t moving. And if they are, it’s in the wrong direction.”
Biden has long commanded an outsized portion of black voters, many of whom look favorably upon his service as vice president to President Barack Obama. In both the Quinnipiac and Morning Consult polls. Biden holds 40% of their support.
Warren, however, has faced doubts about her appeal to the party’s most loyal constituency. But months of outreach and targeted policy proposals appear to have made a mark.