Racial, Gender & Generational Demographics 2020

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Racial, Gender & Generational Demographics 2020

#1

Post by Addie » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:53 pm

Thread title changed

-------------------------------

Vox - Ezra Klein
White threat in a browning America

How demographic change is fracturing our politics.


In 2008, Barack Obama held up change as a beacon, attaching to it another word, a word that channeled everything his young and diverse coalition saw in his rise and their newfound political power: hope. An America that would elect a black man president was an America in which a future was being written that would read thrillingly different from our past.

In 2016, Donald Trump wielded that same sense of change as a threat; he was the revanchist voice of those who yearned to make America the way it was before, to make it great again. That was the impulse that connected the wall to keep Mexicans out, the ban to keep Muslims away, the birtherism meant to prove Obama couldn’t possibly be a legitimate president. An America that would elect Donald Trump president was an America in which a future was being written that could read thrillingly similar to our past.

This is the core cleavage of our politics, and it reflects the fundamental reality of our era: America is changing, and fast. According to the Census Bureau, 2013 marked the first year that a majority of US infants under the age of 1 were nonwhite. The announcement, made during the second term of the nation’s first African-American president, was not a surprise. Demographers had been predicting such a tipping point for years, and they foresaw more to come.

The government predicts that in 2030, immigration will overtake new births as the dominant driver of population growth. About 15 years after that, America will phase into majority-minority status — for the first time in the nation’s history, non-Hispanic whites will no longer make up a majority of the population.

That cross will come in part because America’s black, Hispanic, Asian, and mixed-race populations are expected to grow — indeed, the Hispanic and Asian populations are expected to roughly double, and the mixed-race population to triple. Meanwhile, the non-Hispanic white population is, uniquely, expected to fall, dipping from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million in 2060. The Census Bureau minces no words here: “The only group projected to shrink is the non-Hispanic White population,” they report.
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Re: Racial Demographics

#2

Post by TollandRCR » Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:09 pm

As somebody who was born in Texas I not find this surprising. Texas was a Mexican state before it was a US state.
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Re: Racial Demographics

#3

Post by Volkonski » Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:33 pm

From that article-
The economist Jed Kolko notes that the most common age for white Americans is 58, for Asians it’s 29, for African Americans it’s 27, and for Hispanics it’s 11. A new report out of the University of Wisconsin Madison’s Applied Population Lab found that white births are now outnumbered by white deaths in 26 states, up from 17 in 2014 and four in 2004.
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Re: Racial Demographics

#4

Post by Volkonski » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:54 pm

Without immigration the population of the USA will shrink.

Crippling Childcare Costs Blamed As Birth Numbers In NY Plummet

https://patch.com/new-york/riverhead/s/ ... =riverhead
High childcare costs have forced the number of babies being born in New York to critically low levels – with experts saying there are now too few births to sustain the state's population.

New figures released by the National Center for Health Statistics show that over the lifetime of every 1,000 women in the state, 1,654 children are expected to be born. But to maintain current population levels, 2,100 births are required.

Only nine states – all in the North East – have a lower rate of birth.

Nationally, 2017's total fertility rate in the United States is 16 percent lower than the required level, the NCHS reported.
The full report is here-

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 01-508.pdf
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Re: Racial Demographics

#5

Post by Volkonski » Wed May 15, 2019 8:31 am

Number of babies born in US falls to lowest level since 1986

http://longisland.news12.com/story/4047 ... since-1986
Approximately 3.7 million babies were born last year. That's the lowest number since 1986.

Last year was the fourth straight year the number of births has fallen.

:snippity:

Experts warn that if the trend continues, the United States can expect labor shortages, especially in fields like elder care.
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Re: Racial Demographics

#6

Post by Lani » Wed May 15, 2019 5:53 pm

Nothing to worry about. Soon forced childbearing will be the law of the land.
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Re: Racial Demographics

#7

Post by RoadScholar » Wed May 15, 2019 7:52 pm

Of course. Why else would they be against both abortion and contraception?
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Re: Racial Demographics

#8

Post by Addie » Wed May 22, 2019 9:29 am

Vox
New poll shows black voters want 2020 candidates with big policy plans, not just big names

A new survey from BlackPAC finds that black voters want the country to get “back on track” — and see specific plans to address racism as the way to do it. ...

A poll released this week by BlackPAC, an organization that does election polling and has led black voter engagement efforts in recent elections in Virginia and Alabama, finds that more than halfway into the Trump presidency, black voters are looking to push the country “back on track.” For registered black voters, this means supporting candidates that will address racism and discrimination, as well as produce tangible improvements in areas like health care, the economy, and police accountability.



But the BlackPAC poll also finds that “only 3% of respondents said that the best reason to vote in 2020 is a candidate that they believe in.” This finding is worth looking into more, but it’s a telling indication that black voters this cycle may not be looking for a candidate who is the most inspirational or that they see as likeable, but are rather looking to other factors, like who they see as the most “electable” or who discusses policy issues they care about the best.

Still, the poll suggests that the coming months present an opportunity for all of the candidates to connect with black voters, which are far from a monolithic group. The poll specifically cites Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker, all of whom round out the top five candidates in the poll, as candidates with increasing support from voters closely following the news.


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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics

#9

Post by Addie » Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:09 pm

Vox
Young voters of color are supporting Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. But many want a different candidate.

Millennials and Gen Z are the most diverse generations of voters in America. A new survey shows that they’re still figuring out whom to support.


During the 2018 midterms, turnout from Gen Z, millennials, and Gen X narrowly eclipsed that of boomers and older generations, marking the second election cycle in a row where younger voters participated more than their elders. It suggests that as the 2020 election approaches, it will be important to understand the perspectives of young voters and how they differ from older members of the electorate.

A recent survey of adults ages 36 and under aims to do just that, finding significant differences in how young adults from different racial groups are prioritizing political issues and the candidates they support.

The data comes from the GenForward Survey, a University of Chicago-based project that tracks the political attitudes and interests of young people, and breaks those results down by race. Its latest survey finds that young adults, specifically young adults of color, strongly disapprove of President Trump and believe that the country is “on the wrong track.”

Perhaps surprisingly, these young people of color are also currently more likely to support Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders over other Democratic 2020 candidates in the most diverse primary field in party history. However, the level of support for each candidate differs among racial groups, and is also influenced by the issues they’re prioritizing heading into the 2020 election.

As a result, the survey highlights that even as those two candidates — both boomer white men — command much of the attention right now, any candidate looking to mobilize young voters will need to speak specifically about a range of issues, including racism, health care, income inequality, immigration, and the environment.

“In terms of millennials and Gen Z-ers, we’re talking about the largest generation of eligible voters, and the largest share of the workforce,” says Cathy Cohen, the lead investigator and founder of the GenForward survey. “If we’re not paying close attention to how they think about political issues, we are really missing out on what might happen in 2020.”

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#10

Post by Addie » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:39 am

FiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver
Bulletpoint: Beto O’Rourke Doesn’t Have A Base ...

Here’s the gist of the argument: O’Rourke is probably competing for young voters more than for older ones, for white voters more than nonwhite ones, and for moderate voters more than for very liberal ones. (His voting record in Congress was fairly moderate, although the policy positions he’s staking out now are more of a mixed bag.) There are plenty of young voters, white voters and moderate voters in the Democratic electorate. But there aren’t that many who are young and white and moderate.

According to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study,1 63 percent of voters in the 2016 Democratic primaries were white, 51 percent identified themselves as moderate or conservative, and 56 percent were born in 1965 or afterward, per the Pew Research Center. Multiply those numbers together, and you’d expect:

63% * 51% * 56% = ~18%

…about 18 percent of Democrats to be all three things at once. That’s enough to form a real base when you’re competing for a party nomination, especially when Democratic rules require you to win at least 15 percent of voters in a state or congressional district to secure convention delegates.

But when you actually look at individual-level voter data, you find something different: Only 12 percent of Democratic primary voters are young and white and moderate. That’s far fewer voters to go around, especially when you’re also competing with, say, Pete Buttigieg for the same voters.

What gives? Well, these various characteristics are correlated with one another, so you can’t just multiply the different numbers together to come up with the right number of voters, which would imply that they were independent from one another. And they’re correlated in ways that are not helpful for Beto (or Buttigieg). Younger Democrats tend to be more liberal than older ones. And white voters — not all whites, but the ones who vote in Democratic primaries — are more liberal than minorities. There are some young, white, moderate Democrats, but not as many as you’d expect.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#11

Post by Addie » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:59 am

The Hill
Poll: Support for Sanders among college students reaches highest level since April

Support for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) among college students climbed to its highest mark since April, according to a new weekly Chegg-College Pulse poll.

The latest figures, released Thursday, found that 29 percent of likely Democratic voters attending college or university picked Sanders as their top choice for president. Support for Sanders in this election cycle peaked at 32 percent in April.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden were the only other White House contenders to win double-digit support in the Democratic field. Twenty-two percent of Democratic participants picked Warren, while 10 percent chose Biden. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) followed with 9 percent.

The weekly poll also found that support for Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) dropped for the first time since June. Six percent of college voters said they support Harris, a 2 percentage point decline from the previous week.

Long-shot candidate Andrew Yang rounded out the list of candidates polling greater than 1 percent, with 5 percent support.

College Pulse CEO Terren Klein told Hill.TV this week that college students are poised to play a decisive role in the 2020 presidential election. Klein estimated that from 2014 to 2018, voter participation among students has jumped as much as 80 percent.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#12

Post by Addie » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:54 am

CNN - Harry Enten
Black Democrats are split along generational lines

The Fox New poll is the latest to show that Biden holds a large lead among black voters in the Democratic primary.

What's the point: This polling might give you the sense that Biden will be a heavy favorite among those attending the predominantly black Young Leaders Conference this weekend. After all, just look at his lead among black Democrats nationally. Yet, our last three CNN polls (April, May and June) aggregated together reveals that younger black voters aren't as enthusiastic about Biden's candidacy as older black voters are.

Overall, our last three CNN polls have Biden at 44% among black voters. No one else is anywhere close; Harris is in second at 14%. Biden's big league advantage in these polls is similar to the Fox News poll.
However, Biden's standing drops to 36% among black voters under the age of 50. This is lower than the 51% he has among black voters aged 50 and older.

We don't have a large enough sample size to break it down further than that, but we can model it out using age and race as predictors. Our model suggests that Biden's support probably drops to below 30% among voters under the age of 30. It also suggests that the former vice president's support is likely closer to 60% among black voters age 70 and older. That is, his support probably doubles between the youngest and oldest Democrats.

Such a split within the black community shouldn't be surprising. Back in the 2016 Democratic primary, the age gap was huge. Hillary Clinton won the black vote with somewhere around 75% in 2016. This large vote share came primarily from black primary voters older than 30. She took 70% among black voters ages 30 to 44, 85% from those ages 45 to 59 and 89% from those 60 years and older. Blacks under the age of 30 actually went for Sanders by a 52%-to-47% margin.

This year, Sanders isn't benefiting from quite the same age gap, though an age gap still exists. He stood at 9% with all black Democratic primary voters in our CNN polls from April to June. Breaking it down by age, he does do better with black Democrats under 50 (12%) than those 50 years and older (6%). Using the modeling technique that we did with Biden, we can estimate that Sanders likely has somewhere between 15% and 20% support with black voters under the age of 30. Our model indicates it's probably well under 5% with black voters over 70 years old.
Adding:
Associated Press: Warren, Sanders Get Personal With Young, Black Christians

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are framing their Democratic presidential bids in personal, faith-based terms before black millennial Christians.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#13

Post by Addie » Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:10 pm

Business Insider: 80% of Gen Z college students say they're voting in 2020 — and they've singled out student debt as their biggest concern

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#14

Post by Volkonski » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:16 am

Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
· Aug 23
Fairly astonishing: in the past decade, white men have fallen from 60% to 39% of all House Democrats. Meanwhile, they've risen from 87% to 90% of all House Republicans.

Nicole Hemmer
@pastpunditry
·
Aug 23
Important stat to pair with this: White men make up about 31% of the U.S. population.
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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#15

Post by Addie » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:52 am

Mother Jones: The Rise of the Native American Electorate

Natives have fought to expand their voting rights. Now presidential candidates are courting them.
NPR
As Texas Suburbs Diversify, Democrats See An Opportunity For 2020

As Republican retirements stack up, Democrats are bullish about gains in Texas, with rapid demographic shifts among Hispanics and Asians. Plus, a backlash against President Trump.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#16

Post by Addie » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:13 am

New York Times - Thomas B. Edsall
We Aren’t Seeing White Support for Trump for What It Is

A crucial part of his coalition is made up of better-off white people who did not graduate from college. ...

In less than a decade, from 2010 to 2018, whites without a college degree grew from 50 to 59 percent of all the Republican Party’s voters, while whites with college degrees fell from 40 to 29 percent of the party’s voters. The biggest shift took place from 2016 to 2018, when Trump became the dominant figure in American politics.

This movement of white voters has been evolving over the past 60 years. A paper published earlier this month, “Secular Partisan Realignment in the United States: The Socioeconomic Reconfiguration of White Partisan Support since the New Deal Era,” provides fresh insight into that transformation.

The authors, Herbert Kitschelt and Philipp Rehm, political scientists at Duke and Ohio State, make the argument that the transition from an industrial to a knowledge economy has produced “tectonic shifts” leading to an “education-income partisan realignment” — a profound realignment of voting patterns that has effectively turned the political allegiances of the white sector of the New Deal coalition that dominated the middle decades of the last century upside down.

Driven by what the authors call “first dimension” issues of economic redistribution, on the one hand, and by the newer “second dimension issues of citizenship, race and social governance,” the traditional alliances of New Deal era politics — low-income white voters without college degrees on the Democratic Party side, high-income white voters with degrees on the Republican side — have switched places. According to this analysis, these two constituencies are primarily motivated by “second dimension” issues, often configured around racial attitudes, which frequently correlate with level of education.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#17

Post by Addie » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:42 pm

This is a good move.

The Hill
Biden campaign launches college grass-roots program

Joe Biden’s presidential campaign Tuesday announced the launch of Students for Biden, a national program on college campuses to mobilize students’ support for Biden’s White House bid.

The former vice president's team said in a press release the program would “recruit, train, and empower students” to lead pro-Biden efforts on their respective campuses and increase the campaign’s presence across the country.

“Young Americans are the future of this country and the results of the 2020 election will have a significant impact on their lives and those of generations to come,” said Biden’s campaign manager Greg Schultz.

“Across the country, we have seen consistent enthusiasm and excitement surrounding Vice President Biden’s campaign for president and we are excited to work with some of our youngest voters to build momentum in college communities.”

The program comes as Biden struggles to peel away younger voters from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), his closest competitors.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#18

Post by Addie » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:52 am

Vox
Poll: Latinx voters are leaning Democratic in 2020 battleground states

They could be a force for Democrats next year, but the party needs to make sure its outreach keeps up.


A new poll of Latinx voters has some potentially good news for Democrats: According to the survey, voters in battleground states are souring on Trump and open to other options in 2020.

Whether that translates into an election-changing dynamic, however, remains to be seen. After all, the party hasn’t exactly had a great track record on executing successful Latinx mobilization strategies, and such efforts will be important to drive voters to the polls.

The survey, conducted by Equis Labs, an organization dedicated to studying the Latinx electorate, included more than 8,000 Latinx voters in several highly competitive states such as Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida.

Per the results, Latinx voters favor a Democratic candidate over Trump at this point in the election cycle, though that sentiment was more muted in certain states like Florida, where Republicans have historically had a strong foothold among Cuban Americans. Between 10 percent and 20 percent of voters across every state were also undecided.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#19

Post by Addie » Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:21 pm

Politico: Why black voters are backing 2 old white guys

A divide among African Americans between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders has major implications for the race heading into the fall.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#20

Post by Addie » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:48 am

LA Times: Black voters to 2020 Democrats: Don’t take us for granted

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#21

Post by Addie » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:48 pm

The Guardian: ‘The United States is broken as hell’ – the division in politics over race and class

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#22

Post by Volkonski » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:03 pm

Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#23

Post by Addie » Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:12 pm

New York Times
Biden Has Deep Connection to Black Voters. Will It Translate Into Votes?

The Democratic front-runner leads in the polls among African-Americans, and older black voters admire him. But it’s not “locked down,’’ said one party strategist.


BIRMINGHAM — At the Democratic primary debate last week, Joseph R. Biden Jr. prompted some distress within the party with a rambling, discordant answer to a question about the legacy of slavery, a moment that highlighted his unsteady instincts, and mixed record, on matters of race.

Three days later, a heavily African-American crowd gave Mr. Biden a warm welcome as he delivered a passionate address at the 16th Street Baptist Church, a symbol of the civil rights struggle, where he denounced institutional racism to mark the 56th anniversary of the bombing that killed four young black girls here in 1963.

The divergent responses underscore the uncertainty surrounding whether Mr. Biden can translate his longstanding connection to black voters into votes next year. His deep ties to black leaders, his service as Barack Obama’s vice president and his popularity among older, more conservative African Americans have given him a commanding lead in the polls among a constituency that is crucial to any Democratic candidate seeking the nomination.

But that support has never been rigorously tested at the ballot box outside of his home state of Delaware, and missteps like his meandering debate answer on slavery, as well as his legislative record on issues like busing and criminal justice, have intensified questions among progressive activists, and some party leaders, about whether he is the best standard-bearer for African-American priorities.

“Too much time left to say he’s got it locked down,” Leah Daughtry, a veteran Democratic strategist who ran the 2008 and 2016 Democratic National Conventions and is African-American, said of Mr. Biden’s standing among black voters. “He’s got an advantage, but I don’t think it’s locked.” ...

At the church on Sunday, there was little evidence that this advantage was sliding. In nearly a dozen interviews, many attendees who are focused primarily on defeating President Trump said that they had not yet firmly committed to a candidate — though Mr. Biden was at the top of most people’s lists with many citing his partnership with Mr. Obama and describing genuine affection for Mr. Biden. No one said that his past remarks on race had changed their views.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#24

Post by Addie » Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:58 pm

New York Times - Charles M. Blow
Joe Biden Is Problematic

No amount of growth or good intentions will change this fact.


All five of these things are simultaneously true:
Joe Biden is the Democratic front-runner and may well be the nominee.

He is by far the favorite candidate among black voters.

He was a loyal vice president to Barack Obama, and the two men seem to have shared a deep and true friendship.

He, like the other Democratic candidates, would be a vast improvement over Donald Trump.

And, Biden’s positioning on racial issues has been problematic.
...

His language belies a particular mind-set, one of a liberal of a particular vintage. On the issue of race, it is paternalistic and it pities, it sees deficiency in much the same way that the conservative does, but it responds as savior rather than with savagery. Better the former than the latter, surely, but the sensibility underlying the two positions is shockingly similar. It underscores that liberalism does not perfectly align with racial egalitarianism, regardless of rhetoric to the contrary.

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Re: Racial & Generational Demographics 2020

#25

Post by p0rtia » Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:09 pm

:yeah:

Love Joe, always have, always will, but his communication style and the "I'm the one who can work with the boys on the other side of the aisle" message demonstrate to me that he is not engaged in today's political world.

He is great at describing the damage 45 and the R's are doing, I don't think he's the best choice to actually lead the way to do something about it.

Also, Anita Hill.
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