Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#126

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:48 pm

Yes! I was able to recover it. I couldn't have done it without you. :-D
Foggy wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:43 am
I hope "I forgot my password" works for you, Addie. Of all the people in the world, I want you to have access to the Times. :bighug: :thumbs: :lovestruck:

I'm a grumpy old man, but I'm not stupid.


Yet. :boxing:



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#127

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:52 pm

The Gazette
Encouraging results for Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders within new Iowa poll

Likely Democratic caucus participants are most excited about those two candidates


Quinnipiac University’s latest survey in Iowa, which was conducted in the week before Tuesday and published Wednesday, showed a virtual dead heat among the race’s four leaders: Warren at 20 percent, Buttigieg at 19 percent, Sanders at 17 percent and Biden at 15 percent.

The poll of 698 likely Democratic caucus participants had a margin for error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

A deep dive into the myriad questions in the survey revealed even more encouraging prospects for Buttigieg and Sanders: They fared best on the questions that have a direct correlation to what matters most in the Iowa caucuses. ...

The survey respondents also were asked which candidate was their second choice. This is a critical question at the caucuses, because if a candidate doesn’t meet the minimum threshhold of support in the first round of voting, his or her supporters will be free to move to a different candidate who is viable.

The threshhold to be considered viable is 15 percent. Quinnipiac totaled the second-choice selections of all the candidates who did not reach 15 percent in the poll, and Buttigieg (22 percent) and Sanders (21 percent) were easily the most popular.

In other words, if the poll is accurate and if the caucuses were tomorrow, Buttigieg and Sanders would stand to benefit most from the candidates who would fail to become viable in that first round.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#128

Post by Addie » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:48 am

Dallas Morning News
Joe Biden gets Rep. Marc Veasey’s backing as he tries to seize control of Texas presidential primary

The endorsement comes less than a week after Beto O’Rourke ended bid for the White House ...


Veasey joins a list of prominent Democrats from North Texas backing Biden, including Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson of Dallas, state Rep. Victoria Neave and state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas, as well as former Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings.

“You want to listen to the constituents that you serve,” Veasey told The Dallas Morning News. “Everybody I talk to in Congressional District 33 is overwhelmingly backing Biden.” ...

Veasey’s endorsement comes less than a week after former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso abruptly ended his presidential campaign. Biden and O’Rourke had been in a spirited fight for delegates in the Texas primary. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was also at the top of most polls on Texas.

With O’Rourke out of the race, Biden hopes to use his support with North Texas leaders to win the lion’s share of the 262 delegates at stake. ...

The Super Tuesday contests could help determine the course of the Democratic race for president. Voters in California and Massachusetts will also vote that day, making it one of the biggest events of the primary season.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#129

Post by Addie » Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:31 pm

Quinnipiac University Poll
November 11, 2019 - Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 54 Percent Definitely Wouldn't Vote For Bloomberg In Primary

With less than 100 days to go, former Vice President Joe Biden has an edge in New Hampshire's Democratic primary for president, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll released today. Biden receives support from 20 percent of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, with Senator Elizabeth Warren getting 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg getting 15 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders at 14 percent.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard gets 6 percent, businessman Andrew Yang gets 4 percent, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Tom Steyer are each at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent, and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Independent voters, known as "undeclared voters" in New Hampshire, who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary are divided in their top choice. Biden receives 16 percent support among these voters, while Sanders and Buttigieg get 14 percent each, and Warren and Gabbard receive 10 percent each. Among registered Democrats who are likely to vote in the primary, Biden has 25 percent, Warren has 24 percent, Buttigieg receives 16 percent, and Sanders gets 14 percent. ...

Nearly one-third (32 percent) of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters say the most important candidate quality in deciding who to vote for is "someone who can win the general election," followed by "honesty" at 24 percent, "someone who cares about people like you" at 18 percent, "good leadership skills" at 14 percent, and only 7 percent saying "experience in public office."

Perceived electability is helping Biden, as he leads the primary with 31 percent of the vote among those who say that electability is the most important candidate quality to them. Warren gets 20 percent of these "electability" voters, while Buttigieg receives 19 percent, and Sanders gets 6 percent.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#130

Post by Addie » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:02 am

Nevada Independent
DNC sees Nevada as key battleground for presidential victory

Victory for the Democratic presidential nominee runs through Nevada, according to the Democratic National Committee, which has designated the Silver State as a crucial swing state that could be decided by a relatively small number of votes.

“We absolutely view that as a battleground state,” said David Bergstein, DNC director of battleground state communications, who updated reporters Thursday on the party’s 2020 outlook.

The DNC highlighted 11 states that hold that designation, based on the party’s calculation, a status that means the party will focus on building up the campaign infrastructure need to win in the general election after a nominee is determined by primaries and caucuses. The DNC has already begun investing in Nevada, helping hire organizers to boost caucus participation. ...

One reason Democrats are hopeful about Nevada is that Trump’s support has faltered in the state. The president’s net approval rating fell by 24 points since he took office, according to a Morning Consult tracking poll.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#131

Post by Addie » Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:29 pm

Monmouth University Polling Institute
Few Caucusgoers Tied to 2020 Choice

Buttigieg joins a crowded pack of front-runners; No groundswell of support for Bloomberg


West Long Branch, NJ – South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has joined former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at the top of the leaderboard in the third Monmouth University Poll of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses. Buttigieg’s gains since the summer have been across the board, with increasing support coming from nearly every demographic group. Regardless, less than one-third of likely caucusgoers say that they are firmly set on their choice of candidate and most would not be too disappointed if they had to switch their support. The poll also finds that Mike Bloomberg receives a chilly reception among Hawkeye State Democrats as he considers whether to make a late entry into the nomination contest.

Four candidates are currently vying for the top spot in Iowa’s caucuses – Buttigieg (22%), Biden (19%), Warren (18%), and Sanders (13%). Compared to Monmouth’s August poll, Buttigieg has gained 14 points (up from 8%) and Sanders has gained 5 points (up from 8%), while Biden has lost 7 points (down from 26%), and Warren’s standing has changed by only 2 points (20% previously).

Buttigieg has gained ground among every major demographic group since the summer. His support stands at 26% among voters who describe themselves as moderate or conservative, 23% among those who are somewhat liberal, and 15% among those who are very liberal. He is currently in the top tier for both women (24%, to 22% for Biden, and 20% for Warren), and men (20%, to 19% for Sanders and 16% for Warren). Looking at the poll results by age, Buttigieg (26%) is nipping at Biden’s heels (29%) among voters age 65 and older. He has a slight advantage among those age 50 to 64 (24%, to 17% each for Biden and Warren), and is competitive among voters under the age of 50 (19%, to 24% for Warren and 19% for Sanders). Buttigieg leads among college graduates (24%, to 21% for Warren and 15% for Biden) and is in the top tier among those without a college degree (21%, to 21% for Biden, 18% for Sanders, and 16% for Warren).

“Buttigieg is emerging as a top pick for a wide variety of Iowa Democrats. While he has made nominally bigger gains among older caucusgoers, you really can’t pigeonhole his support to one particular group. He is doing well with voters regardless of education or ideology,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. ...

The poll also found that Buttigieg has the best favorability rating in the field, while ratings for Biden and Warren have declined. Currently, Buttigieg gets a 73% favorable and 10% unfavorable rating from likely Iowa caucusgoers, which is similar to his 72%-9% rating in August. Warren gets a 69%-23% rating (down from 76%-14%) and Biden gets a 65%-26% rating (down from 72%-20%). Sanders has a 61% favorable and 29% unfavorable rating, which is improved somewhat from August (58%-33%).



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#132

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:49 am

The Gazette
Elizabeth Warren first choice in new poll, but most Iowa caucusgoers undecided

Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is solidifying her lead as front-runner in a large Democratic field of candidates competing in the Iowa caucuses, but a new Hawkeye Poll finds that fewer than a third of registered voters are “strongly committed” to their first choice.

Warren is the first choice of 23.1 percent of those responding to the poll conducted by the Hawkeye Poll Cooperative, consisting of University of Iowa faculty, graduate students and undergraduate students in the political science and sociology departments.

Independent Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden rounded out the top tier as the first choices of 18.1 percent, 15. 5 percent and 15.3 percent, respectively. They were the only candidates with support in double digits. Nearly 13 percent of respondents did not know or refused to answer.

The results indicate Warren is well-positioned in Iowa 12 weeks ahead of the Feb. 3, 2020, caucuses, according to Frederick Boehmke, University of Iowa professor of political science, who serves as faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll.

“While most potential caucusgoers are still evaluating a handful of candidates, Warren places at the top among respondents’ first and second choices,” Boehmke said. “She also does well among those still narrowing down their choices and especially well among those very likely to attend the caucuses.”



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#133

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:05 pm

The Hill
Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris lead Trump in Georgia: Poll

President Trump may be in for a tough reelection fight in Georgia in 2020, according to a poll released on Wednesday by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that shows him trailing five of his potential Democratic rivals.

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds the biggest lead over Trump, besting him 51 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, according to the AJC poll.

Four other candidates — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) — hold narrower leads over Trump, ranging from 4 points in Sanders’s case to a single point in Harris’s case. Warren and Buttigieg each lead Trump by 3 points in hypothetical matchups.

The survey, conducted for the AJC by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, may be overly optimistic for Democrats. Nearly 62 percent of those who responded to the poll were college educated, a disproportionate sample compared to the state’s actual makeup.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#134

Post by Addie » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:45 pm

Des Moines Register
Iowa Poll: Pete Buttigieg rockets to the top of the 2020 field as a clear front-runner ...

Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor.

Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, led the September Iowa Poll, when 22% said she was their first choice. In this poll, her support slips to 16%. Former Vice President Biden, who led the Register’s first three Iowa Polls of the 2020 caucus cycle, has continued to slide, falling 5 percentage points to 15%. Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, also garners 15% — a 4 percentage point rise.

Those four candidates began to pull away from the crowded field of Democrats and separate into a top tier of contenders in June's Iowa Poll. Biden, Warren and now Buttigieg have all taken turns atop the poll, with Sanders consistently in the top four. ...

“This is the first poll that shows Buttigieg as a stand-alone front-runner,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “There have been four candidates that have sort of jostled around in a pack together, but he has a sizable lead over the nearest contender — 9 points. So this is a new status for him.” ...

More respondents — 30% now, compared with 20% in September — say they have a first choice and their minds are made up. That still leaves ample opportunity for more surges and slides in the two-and-a-half months before the caucuses: 62% say they have a first choice but could still be persuaded, 1% are unsure and 7% have not made a first choice. In September, 16% of caucusgoers said they had not made a first choice.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#135

Post by Foggy » Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:52 am

:cheer:


When reality is outlawed only outlaws will have reality.

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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#136

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:08 pm

CBS News
CBS News Battleground Tracker: Buttigieg rises in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden back atop delegate hunt

The Democratic nomination race remains unsettled because many voters are conflicted between what they want and whether they think can win. Some candidates who generate excitement are also seen as risky. Progressive policies are popular but might be too liberal to win swing voters. And while voters say they are satisfied with their current selection of candidates, very few have actually settled on one.

So, across the early primary and caucus states through Super Tuesday, voters' top pick continues to swing back and forth between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, with neither able to break away.

Warren, whose support has dipped since last month, is seen by most as exciting; however, many also describe her as risky and worry her policy stances are too liberal to defeat President Trump, a sign that some of the recent critiques leveled at her may have slowed her momentum. Among Warren's backers last month who now pick a different candidate, the bulk of them went to Biden and Pete Buttigieg.

Biden, who has regained the edge in both the poll and our delegate model, is described by most as safe but not exciting.

Bernie Sanders is holding strong in third place. Buttigieg has climbed into the top tier in Iowa and made big gains in New Hampshire.

Iowa now shows a clear top tier defined by Sanders, Biden and now Buttigieg — whose support in the state has tripled since September and risen seven points since just last month — and Warren, who was atop the list with Biden last month and has since dropped a bit.

In addition to his gains in Iowa and New Hampshire, Buttigieg has picked up support in the aggregate 18-state poll. CBS News recontacts voters for this study, and most of Buttigieg's current supporters reported a different first-choice candidate last month, primarily Warren.










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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#137

Post by Addie » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:46 pm

FiveThirtyEight
What Happens If Buttigieg Wins Iowa?

For the second time this year, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is having a moment. Since the October debate, when he took on Sen. Elizabeth Warren on health care and other issues, he has ticked up by a couple points in the national polling averages. He’s also broken into double digits in the last few New Hampshire polls.

But the epicenter of the new Buttigieg bump is in Iowa. He began gaining ground in polls there even before the October debate — his ascent ignited, perhaps, by an aggressive television ad campaign. (Since Sept. 7, Buttigieg’s campaign has aired 3,841 spots for an estimated $2.1 million in Iowa’s broadcast media markets.) And now, if you average every Iowa poll conducted entirely since the last debate on Oct. 15, Buttigieg is right in the thick of a four-way pile-up in the Hawkeye State — in second behind Warren at 19 percent. ...

What could happen in New Hampshire

It’s the morning of Feb. 4, 2020, and fresh copies of the Union Leader blare from every newsstand in New Hampshire: “BUTTIGIEG SURGES TO WIN IOWA.” But how much would that actually matter in the Granite State? History tells us anywhere from “not at all” to “a fair bit.” The extent to which winning Iowa bolsters a candidate’s numbers in New Hampshire is actually pretty inconsistent; in 2012 and 2016, for instance, Iowa winners Mitt Romney,1 Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton did no better in New Hampshire than their pre-Iowa polls suggested. So one scenario is that Buttigieg, and the other candidates, stay more or less at their pre-Iowa levels of support in New Hampshire, which would lead Buttigieg to a disappointing fourth-place finish based on the current polling average there. ...

Another argument in favor of this scenario is that none of Biden, Sanders or Warren would have truly bombed in Iowa if the results of the Selzer poll came true; they’d each be able to claim that they were part of a three-way tie for second place. Furthermore, all four of them would still have met or exceeded 15 percent of the vote statewide in Iowa, meaning all four would qualify for some of the state’s 41 pledged delegates, which you must receive at least 15 percent to do. That could portend an unprecedented open race — and make a brokered convention a real possibility, as no more than three candidates have ever earned more than 15 percent of the vote in any state or territory’s caucus since the 15 percent threshold was established in 1992.

But there is also a very plausible scenario where Buttigieg does surge in New Hampshire. For starters, the state should be fertile ground for him demographically: Like Iowa, its Democratic primary electorate is relatively old, white and college-educated, three groups with whom Buttigieg does disproportionately well in national polls. And while the average “bounce” for the Iowa winner varies from cycle to cycle, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver found in 2011 that, on average, Iowa winners through 2008 got a 7-percentage-point bounce in New Hampshire. But of course, these bounces aren’t uniform; candidates who outperform expectations in Iowa tend to get more of a boost. So if our hypothetical holds true and Buttigieg wins Iowa with a vote share that’s almost 20 points higher than he is polling nationally, it’s easy to imagine him closing his 8-point deficit in the New Hampshire polling average from the table above — especially if he steals support from the other three front-runners in the process.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#138

Post by Addie » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:29 pm

The Hill
Poll: Biden holds 20-point lead in South Carolina

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads his two nearest Democratic presidential primary rivals, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), by huge margins in a new poll of South Carolina.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday found Biden with the support of 33 percent of likely voters, while Warren trailed 20 points behind with 13 percent and Sanders followed her closely with 11 percent.

No other candidate registered double-digit support in the poll, with South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg coming in fourth place with the support of 6 percent of likely voters.

Following shortly behind Buttigieg in the poll at 5 percent was billionaire Tom Steyer, a later entrant to the 2020 race who nevertheless was polling higher than more established candidates such as Democratic Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.) and Kamala Harris (Calif.).

South Carolina's primary has remained a stronghold of support for Biden, who has fallen behind Sanders and Warren in polls of other early voting or high-delegate states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and California.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#139

Post by Addie » Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:06 pm

Politico
Study: New citizens could swing battleground states in 2020

A progressive group shines a spotlight on a potentially potent voting bloc, but activists say Democrats are failing to mobilize it.


Immigrants who have become new American citizens in key swing states could prove influential in the 2020 election if effectively mobilized, according to a new study.

An analysis conducted by the progressive group New American Leaders found that naturalized citizens make up hundreds of thousands of eligible voters in key presidential swing states such Georgia, Arizona and Michigan.

New American Leaders, which helps immigrants run for elected office, released the numbers ahead of the fifth Democratic presidential debate in Atlanta on Wednesday, in the hopes that candidates would take notice and address the voting bloc on stage.

The report, conducted by University of California San Diego professor Tom Wong and researcher Nura Sedique, used micro-level data from the U.S. Census American Community Survey, which provides five-year population projections, as well as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study to make its estimates.

In Georgia, new citizens constitute more than 440,000 potential voters, the group estimated. President Donald Trump won the state by roughly 200,000 votes in 2016.

In Arizona, naturalized citizens make up more than 300,000 eligible voters, more than half of whom are not registered. Trump carried the state in 2016 by less than 100,000 votes, but Democrats are hopeful they can flip it in the presidential election after winning a Senate seat there last year.

And in Michigan, new citizens make up 64,000 eligible voters as of 2016, according to the analysis. Trump won the state by 10,000 votes.

“We feel that New American voters are getting lost in the conversation between the Rust Belt and the Sunbelt, or the Obama-Trump [crossover] voters,” said Sayu Bhojwani, founder of New American Leaders, referring to two common ways of framing the presidential race. “It's very clear that there is a path to the general election victory that can be forged through immigrant communities in states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.”



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#140

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:49 pm

HuffPo
Bernie Sanders’ Strength With Latino Voters Threatens Joe Biden’s Coalition

States with large Latino populations are set to award huge numbers of Democratic delegates.


LAS VEGAS — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is threatening former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead with Latino voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, with the winner set to potentially reap a huge collection of delegates that could prove crucial to deciding who emerges as the Democratic challenger to President Donald Trump.

Both men held town halls in Las Vegas this weekend ahead of a Nevada Democratic Party dinner here on Sunday night, and both used the opportunity to highlight their support in the first state to vote with a significant Latino population. Biden is relying on support from Latino and Black voters to keep his campaign alive and collect large sums of delegates to the Democratic National Convention even if he struggles in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Sanders’ strength with Latino voters is a direct threat to that strategy.

“I think the Latino vote will be the single most important part of the delegate map for any candidate this year,” said Chuck Rocha, a top strategist for Sanders’ campaign. “We’ve made [Latino voters] a part of the general strategy. In other campaigns, it’s been an afterthought. We’re not doing that to prove a point. We’re doing it because it’s smart politics.”

Rocha noted Latino voters are a growing presence in Iowa and South Carolina, and a key bloc in Nevada. But the real prize will come on Super Tuesday. Colorado, Texas and California ― all of which are more than 20% Latino, according to census data ― will combine for more than 700 delegates. And other Super Tuesday states, including Oklahoma, North Carolina and Virginia, are home to sizable Latino populations.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#141

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:36 pm

Albany Times Union
Siena poll: Biden leads among NY Democrats

New York Democrats are increasingly throwing support behind former Vice President Joe Biden to serve as the party’s nominee for president, according to a new Siena College poll released Thursday.

Biden heads a crowded field with 24 percent support, followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 13 percent. That’s the largest lead Biden has held over his opponents since at least September. Last month, he tied Warren as the front-runner with 21 percent support, and the month prior, he recorded 22 percent support to Warren’s 17.

A little more than a third of Democrats said Biden has the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, up from 30 percent last month.

Read more highlights from the poll here ...



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#142

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:30 pm

The Hill
Poll: Buttigieg holds 7-point lead in Iowa, followed by Warren, Sanders

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a 7-point lead over his Democratic presidential rivals in Iowa, marking the third consecutive poll to show him leading in the Hawkeye State.

Buttigieg gets the support of 26 percent of likely Democratic Iowa caucusgoers in the Civiqs-Iowa State University poll released Thursday, while Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) battle for second place at 19 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

Former Vice President Joe Biden comes in fourth at 12 percent. No other candidate breaks double digits.

Only 3 percent of likely caucusgoers said they were unsure of who they’d support if the race was decided today.

The poll showed Buttigieg with a 4-point lead among voters aged 35-49, and a 9-point lead among voters aged 65 years and up.

The Civiqs-Iowa State University poll follows a Des Moines Register-CNN-Mediacom survey showing Buttigieg with a 9-point lead and a Monmouth University poll showing him with a 3-point advantage in Iowa.

In another sign of growing momentum, a new poll released Wednesday showed Buttigieg with a 10-point lead in New Hampshire, which will hold the nation’s second nominating contest following Iowa.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#143

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:17 pm

The Hill
Poll: Biden and Sanders tied nationally, followed by Warren

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are leading the Democratic presidential primary field in a new national poll, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) following in third place.

The Emerson poll released Thursday found Biden and Sanders each with the support of 27 percent of Democratic primary voters, with Warren following at 20 percent support. No other candidate received double-digit support in the poll.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) was supported by 7 percent of registered voters in the poll, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang was supported by 4 percent.

Sanders's support increased by 2 percentage points since October in the poll, and Warren's support decreased by 1 percentage point, while Biden's remained steady.

“Biden and Sanders continue to hold their bases, which should concern Warren, as she has waited for one of the front runners to slip these past few months — yet, their support seems to be crystalizing,” Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#144

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:01 pm

Associated Press
New Hampshire may test durability of Sanders' popularity

Bernie Sanders has remained among the front-runners in the Democratic primary despite his campaign-trail heart attack and the rise of Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, but perhaps no state will test that more than New Hampshire


Bernie Sanders has consistently remained among the front-runners in the Democratic primary with polling that has stayed strong despite his campaign-trail heart attack last month and the rise of top rivals Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.

But perhaps no state will test the Vermont senator’s durability more than New Hampshire, where he trounced Hillary Clinton by 22 points in 2016 and now may find himself a victim of that success since repeating such a dominate performance seems unthinkable.

Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, is trying to erode Sanders’ support among ardent progressives, while former Vice President Joe Biden continues to woo the Democratic establishment, declaring during a recent stop in the state capital, Concord: “I plan on winning New Hampshire.”

Yet another New Englander, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, could raise the state’s stakes since he’s already relatively well known here, despite just joining the race.

And, with none of those candidates from nearby states running away with New Hampshire, Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has moved among the front-runners — similar to his rise in Iowa.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#145

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:56 pm

New York Times
Biden Is Struggling in Iowa and His Supporters There Know Why

The former vice president’s backers have noted a lack of enthusiasm and a spotty campaign operation as reasons Joe Biden is lagging in Iowa, not to mention a formidable moderate competitor in Pete Buttigieg.


WINTERSET, Iowa — Nancy Courtney displays a Joe Biden sign in her yard, makes phone calls for his campaign and supports the former vice president “100 percent,” she said. But the sluggish state of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s organization in her city of Burlington, Iowa, had her fuming one recent evening.

“In Burlington, they are duds,” said Ms. Courtney, an activist who is married to the Democratic chairman in Des Moines County. “I will help, but there’s no excitement there. There’s nothing. I will do whatever it takes to get him elected, but I can’t go down there when there’s nothing going on.”

Bob Kling, a city councilman in Indianola, just south of Des Moines, was promoted by the Biden campaign as a prominent local endorser. But asked about Mr. Biden’s standing in his state, Mr. Kling was blunt: “Not as great as he was. Buttigieg is kind of taking the lead in the polls,” he said, referring to Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind.

Since late summer, Mr. Biden, the early front-runner in the Democratic primary, has faced an increasingly difficult path in Iowa — dropping in the polls and struggling with an enthusiasm gap and an inclination among undecided caucusgoers to consider all options. Now, 10 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, even his own supporters in the state are growing more worried about his prospects.

The heightened anxiety comes as the candidate and campaign are raising expectations, through new investments of time and resources, about his ability to compete here, an implicit acknowledgment that a substantial loss could be a significant early setback.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#146

Post by Addie » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:16 pm

Boston Globe
Suffolk/Globe poll finds Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Biden in tight race in N.H.

A new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters shows a tight, four-way contest, with Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on top but statistically tied with Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and former vice president Joe Biden.

It has been decades since this many candidates have jostled for the lead so soon before a New Hampshire presidential primary. On Monday, longtime New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner officially scheduled the vote for Feb. 11.

The survey found Sanders, who won the New Hampshire primary in 2016, leading the field with 16 percent, including those who lean toward the candidate. Warren had 14 percent, Buttigieg had 13 percent, and Biden had 12 percent. All other candidates, including former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick, who jumped in the race this month, were in single digits.

The poll suggested little about this race is set in stone. Twenty-one percent of likely voters were undecided. When those who chose a candidate were pressed, more than half said they might change their minds before the primary, while only 43 percent said their minds were made up.

While support for Sanders and Warren was essentially unchanged from the last Suffolk/Globe poll in August, Biden lost 9 percentage points, while Buttigieg gained 7 points.

“The narrative is changing in New Hampshire,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, which conducted the poll. ... Earlier, he said, people were talking about a battle for progressive voters between Sanders and Warren. ...“Now, add to that the war between Buttigieg and Biden,” Paleologos said.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#147

Post by Addie » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:36 pm

Market Watch
Warren falls to 3rd in new Democratic 2020 poll

A new national poll puts Democratic presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren at third place in her party's crowded 2020 field, down from ranking No. 1 a month ago. The senator from Massachusetts drew 14% support in the Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, behind former Vice President Joe Biden's 24% and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 16%. In a Quinnipiac survey released on Oct. 24, Warren ranked first with 28%, while Biden had 21% and Buttigieg got 10%.
Adding:
Politico: Warren nosedives in new nationwide poll

The latest Quinnipiac poll also shows Buttigieg surging into second.
The Hill: Bloomberg ties with Harris, Klobuchar in new national poll



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#148

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:09 am

Survey USA
Has Elizabeth Warren Peaked? Or are CA Voters Just Flirting with Other Democrats?


14 weeks till Californians vote in the so-called Super Tuesday primary, likely Democratic primary voters statewide today can't quit Joe Biden, according to SurveyUSA's newest tracking poll, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego, and the San Diego Union-Tribune newspaper. Though Biden's son and now suddenly a grandchild are in the news for all the wrong reasons, though Biden continues to struggle to express himself coherently, though Biden inadvertently steps on the toes of his core constituents, and though Republicans see him as a punching bag, Biden's CA poll numbers remain stable.

In 4 consecutive SurveyUSA monthly tracking polls, Biden has always led a large Democratic field by as few as 4 points, as many as 15 points, and today by 11 points, at 30%. Biden's closest CA rival today, Bernie Sanders is at 19%.

Given the chance to choose any of the Democrats still in the race, but before Michael Bloomberg is added to the mix, likely CA primary voters today appear to have second thoughts about Elizabeth Warren, who drops 5 points from October to November and now polls at 13%, still in 3rd place, just ahead of California US Senator Kamala Harris, at 10%, who is effectively tied for 4th place with Pete Buttigieg, at 9%.

Harris, who is black, is backed by 17% of African American democratic primary voters, up from a nadir of 11% black support last month, but still today with just half the black support of white frontrunner Biden; Biden is backed by 32% of black CA likely Democratic primary voters.

Among CA's significant Latino population, Biden leads his nearest challenger Sanders 2:1 and leads Warren 4:1. ...

When SurveyUSA re-asks primary voters who they prefer with Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick added to the existing candidate list, Bloomberg finishes 8th at 3%, behind Andrew Yang (5%) and even with Cory Booker and Tom Steyer. Bloomberg siphons approximately 1 of every 9 Buttigieg voters; he does not steal materially from other candidates. Patrick finishes last, at 0%.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#149

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:31 am

The Hill
Sanders, Buttigieg surge in New Hampshire as Biden, Warren slip: poll

White House hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) surged to the lead in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, followed by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg in second place, according to a new Emerson College poll released Tuesday.

Sanders led the Democratic primary field with 26 percent support among primary voters, trailed by Buttigieg at 22 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) each had 14 percent, while no other candidate broke double digits.

The poll suggests a significant shuffling of the primary field in the Granite State, with Sanders and Buttigieg both doubling their support compared to the same poll in September. That survey had Sanders at 13 percent and Buttigieg at 11 percent.

Meanwhile, Biden, who led in the September poll, fell 10 points, while Warren dropped 7 points. And in a sign the field could rejigger further, 55 percent of Democratic primary voters said there’s a chance they could change their minds ahead of the Feb. 11 primary.

“The Democratic voters have taken a look at Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren and they appear unsatisfied at this time which brought some voters back to Bernie Sanders while others are now moving to a fresh face in Pete Buttigieg, this demonstrates the fluidity of the race,” said Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson Polling.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#150

Post by Addie » Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:54 am

Associated Press
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren lead pack in New Mexico fundraising

SANTA FE — New Mexico residents are throwing their financial support in the race for U.S. president mainly behind progressive candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, according to an analysis of individual contributions to campaign committees.

The fundraising tally by the Center for Responsive Politics focused on contributions over $200 before Oct. 1 and left out some small donations.

It shows Sanders, the Vermont senator who narrowly lost New Mexico to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primary, at the front of the fundraising pack with at least $379,000 in individual contributions. Warren of Massachusetts is close behind.

They are followed by President Donald Trump; Pete Buttigieg, the youthful mayor of South Bend, Indiana; and U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California. Former Vice President Joe Biden is further down the list.

Former Democratic National Committee chairman Fred Harris says New Mexico is closely following national trends when it comes to the fundraising.

“What that shows is sort of the enthusiasm,” said Harris, husband of state Democratic party chairwoman Marg Elliston. “Those three — Bernie Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg — have a lot more enthusiastic supporters.”



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