2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

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noblepa
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#826

Post by noblepa »

pipistrelle wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:52 am
I got an email recently asking me if I want to vote by mail (have done so before). Sure. Sent me a link. Had to verify several things. When I return it, I have to sign, which has to be verified just like at the polling place. Yeah, I know logic and sense have nothing to do with it.
In Ohio, anyone who wants to can vote by mail. You no longer need to be an "absentee", that is, out of the state or country. I have voted by mail for several years. You must supply the last four digits of your social security number or your driver's license number, to prove your identity.

I have not heard of any instances of voter fraud in Ohio related to voting by mail.

I think that the 78% of Trump voters who believe mail-in voting is susceptible to fraud, also believe that 2 million undocumented immigrants voted in California in 2016 and that is why the OSG lost the popular vote. They spend too much time listening to the OSG and Faux News.

I can't wait to hear the bitching begin on election night, when Biden wins.

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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#827

Post by noblepa »

Gregg wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:38 am

This might be a "what the hell happened?" election that could make the Republican Party as a national institution an iffy proposition.
A part of me would like to see that happen, but I remember people saying the same thing after the Watergate scandal led to Gerald Ford being thoroughly defeated by Jimmy Carter in 1976. It obviously didn't happen. Ronald Reagan destroyed Carter in 1980.

I'm not sure I would like to see that happen, anyway. I don't want a one party system. I don't completely trust Democrat polititians. If they become dominant, they might succumb to the corruption and demagogery that the Republicans currently display.

In some ways, Mitch is a greater threat than the Donald. POTUS is a fool. Mitch is the one who is smart enough, powerful enough and skillful enough to make Trump's wet dreams a reality.

To me, the best outcome would be for the R's to return to being a party of the "loyal opposition", who balance the more radical Democrats. Both parties need to move toward the center. Both parties need to rediscover the art of compromise and peaceful co-existence.

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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#828

Post by voxpopuluxe »

noblepa wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:43 pm
To me, the best outcome would be for the R's to return to being a party of the "loyal opposition", who balance the more radical Democrats. Both parties need to move toward the center. Both parties need to rediscover the art of compromise and peaceful co-existence.
i honestly can't even imagine what a more "centrist" democratic party than the one which exists now would look like. Joe Lieberman? Jeb Bush?

anyway, the GOP isn't going anywhere. it didn't in '08 and it won't in '20.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#829

Post by p0rtia »

Not. Rattled. Enough.

By a long chalk.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#830

Post by Whatever4 »

p0rtia wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:19 pm
Not. Rattled. Enough.

By a long chalk.
Portia, I thought “by a long chalk” was either a mistake (like for all intensive porpoises) or a wild spellcheck error, but it’s legit!! Once again, I learned something from The Fogbow. https://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-not2.htm
Not by a long shot is an idiom that is primarily used in the United States, while not by a long chalk is an idiom that is primarily used in Britain. An idiom is a word, group of words or phrase that has a figurative meaning that is not easily deduced from its literal meaning. Though the definitions of not by a long shot and not by a long chalk are identical, the two terms have very different origins. We will examine the definition of not by a long shot and not by a long chalk, where these terms came from and some examples of their use in sentences.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#831

Post by Orlylicious »

Supposedly MoscowMitch has given IMPOTUS a Labor Day deadline to get back on track -- or he'll tell his conference they can break away if they need to. The fact that the GOP is screaming about deficits again (um, what about the $2 trillion tax cut) is a pretty big sign they don't expect things to go their way.

It feels like this has been forever (it many ways, it has), but the first Early Voting is September 15. That's 55 days away.
Republican feuding this week represents broader reckoning over party’s future as Trump sinks in the polls
By Seung Min Kim and Rachael Bade
July 22, 2020 at 7:01 p.m. EDT

Tensions among congressional Republicans fueled by the party’s diminishing electoral fortunes broke out into the open this week — as GOP lawmakers sparred over the shape of the next coronavirus aid package, how vigorously to stand behind President Trump and which primaries to wade into that could help determine control of the Senate in November. In the Senate, GOP senators continued to struggle to find consensus on a massive spending bill aimed at mitigating the pandemic and softening its economic impact — a task complicated by the president’s insistence on a payroll tax cut that few in his own party want, intraparty feuding over the cost of the package and disagreements over exactly how the money should be spent. Across the dome in the House, some of the Trump’s closest allies launched a surprising attack against Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the highest-ranking Republican woman on Capitol Hill, charging her with disloyalty to the president because she has bucked him on national security issues and embraced public health advice and officials of whom Trump has been dismissive. And on Wednesday, allies of Senate Republican leaders formally threw their support behind the establishment choice in a heated GOP primary in Kansas, pitting themselves against a strong supporter of the president who was an early advocate of his immigration policies. The battles this week were a microcosm of the broader reckoning over the party’s future and how strong the populist tenets of Trumpism will hold after the president leaves office. The fractures are emerging now because of worries that the party faces doom at the polls this fall owing to Trump’s handling of the pandemic and his resulting falling poll numbers against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

Trump came from nowhere five years ago to effectively take over the Republican Party, remaking it into a seeming cult of personality that has repeatedly violated the party’s supposed orthodoxies. But this week’s dust-ups are bringing into relief the fault lines and competing personalities that will define the coming war over the soul of the post-Trump GOP, whether that is after a single term or in another four years, with some appearing already to be jockeying for position in the 2024 presidential contest. “I think [a] sure way to lose the Senate, and elect Joe Biden, is to allow Democratic politicians to keep the country shut down and keep 40 million people out of work,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), who ran for the party’s presidential nomination in 2016, said of the coronavirus package Wednesday. “Our focus needs to be on recovery, on getting people back in their jobs.” Cruz vented his frustrations in private at a lunch Tuesday. As Republican lawmakers continued to add costly items to the ballooning virus aid package, he asked, “What in the hell are we doing?” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was similarly vocal about spending concerns, even though others — such as Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) — argued in favor of spending a little more so that Republican senators in tough reelection races would have tangible policy wins to bring home for voters and help the party’s chances of retaining control of the chamber.

Cruz and Paul are reviving traditional fiscal concerns of the Republican Party that have diminished under the Trump presidency; the administration paid little attention to rising deficits as the GOP passed costly tax cuts and made pricey spending deals with Democrats. Trump — who four years ago campaigned on a pledge to eliminate the national debt in eight years — has otherwise not concerned himself much with the amount of red ink dripping from the government’s ledger. During his administration, the size of the national debt has ballooned from $19.9 trillion on his inauguration to $26.5 trillion today. The Treasury Department said last week that the nation’s budget deficit grew to a record-high $864 billion in June. Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who speaks regularly with Senate Republicans, said that many GOP senators want to be much more aggressive about paring down the soaring deficit as soon as the economy recovers. Riedl also said some Republicans acknowledge that addressing fiscal issues beyond November will require putting tax increases on the table to appease Democrats. “There is significant remorse over letting deficits rise by $9 trillion during the previous economic expansion,” Riedl said. “Of course, we’ve heard these concerns before, so we will see if they are willing to follow through.”

The administration and Senate Republican leaders are aiming for a $1 trillion coronavirus aid package, although negotiations continued throughout the day on Wednesday and senior GOP officials indicated that the earliest a plan would be released was Thursday. The main sticking point continued to be the potential inclusion of a payroll tax cut, although Republicans also were struggling to balance the push for more funding for testing and other priorities with concerns about the plan’s cost. At the Capitol on Wednesday, Republican lawmakers acknowledged that nervousness about November was fueling the tensions. “It always happens that way,” said Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), a retiring lawmaker whose would-be GOP successors are locked in their own intraparty brawl ahead of the Aug. 4 primary in the state. “People fuss and feud and fight and whatever — then after the election, they love each other.” Yet the Republican infighting is spreading beyond policy disputes on the Hill.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC dedicated to electing Republicans to the Senate, formally took a side Wednesday in a contested GOP primary for a candidate to succeed Roberts in Kansas. The super PAC’s aim is to stifle the chances of Kris Kobach, the controversial former Kansas secretary of state who lost a gubernatorial bid in 2018, prevailing in the Aug. 4 primary. Jack Pandol, a spokesman for the super PAC, said the group on Thursday will launch a $1.2 million ad campaign promoting Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). The ads will run through the primary. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has not officially taken sides in the race, although establishment GOP figures have made clear publicly and in private that they think Kobach would risk handing a traditionally Republican seat to a Democrat in November. Kobach is an immigration hard-liner whose approach is in line with Trump’s, and he shares the president’s belief, which is not backed up by the facts, that voter fraud is a significant issue in elections. Trump named him the head of his now defunct voter fraud commission.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#832

Post by Gregg »

noblepa wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:30 pm
pipistrelle wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:52 am
I got an email recently asking me if I want to vote by mail (have done so before). Sure. Sent me a link. Had to verify several things. When I return it, I have to sign, which has to be verified just like at the polling place. Yeah, I know logic and sense have nothing to do with it.
In Ohio, anyone who wants to can vote by mail. You no longer need to be an "absentee", that is, out of the state or country. I have voted by mail for several years. You must supply the last four digits of your social security number or your driver's license number, to prove your identity.

I have not heard of any instances of voter fraud in Ohio related to voting by mail.

I think that the 78% of Trump voters who believe mail-in voting is susceptible to fraud, also believe that 2 million undocumented immigrants voted in California in 2016 and that is why the OSG lost the popular vote. They spend too much time listening to the OSG and Faux News.

I can't wait to hear the bitching begin on election night, when Biden wins.
The really smart Republicans wich he'd quit trying to make Vote By Mail the same as Votor Fraud in the base's mind. A material portion of the Republican base has in the past voted absentee and I saw a story the other day that said now, 78% of Trump voters think absentee voting is fraud and won't do it themselves.

Keep on talking, Stable Genius.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#833

Post by Addie »

WaPo - Greg Sargent: ‘Deaths of Despair’ soared in Trump country. It may be getting worse.


A big reason President Trump prevailed in 2016 was his massive margins in what are called the “Middle Suburbs,” largely blue-collar counties heavily concentrated in the industrial Midwest. Trump won those areas by 13 points — a key reason he flipped Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

A new report helps explain why this happened — but it also points to why he may struggle to duplicate this performance, which could badly complicate his reelection hopes.

The report finds that “Deaths of Despair” were far higher than the national average in these Middle Suburban counties over the five-year period from 2014 to 2018.

Deaths of Despair are deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide, which are thought to be partly rooted in a social cause, such as the collapse of working-class life prospects and/or community life.

So Deaths of Despair did soar in regions where Trump won big. But that hasn’t abated through 2018, complicating Trump’s reelection case. With the coronavirus, that is surely getting worse.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#834

Post by Orlylicious »

First mail in voting is in September, not much time for the GOP to turn the Titanic around.
House GOP’s pleas to Republican National Committee for financial help go unanswered
By Rachael Bade, Josh Dawsey and Michelle Ye Hee Lee
July 25, 2020 at 7:00 a.m. EDT

Senior House Republicans are pleading with the deep-pocketed Republican National Committee and the Trump campaign to provide financial help as Democrats vastly outraise the GOP, but top campaign officials are so far declining to commit. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has been prodding the RNC to write a check to the National Republican Congressional Committee — a request he has made multiple times. McCarthy specifically has asked Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, to make a financial commitment to the House GOP, according to several officials familiar with the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely describe private conversations.

But Kushner, who oversees such decisions and has a greater say than RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, has refused thus far, the officials say. While the Trump campaign and the RNC have brought in record amounts of money, some Trump officials see donating to the House as a wasteful investment as the GOP’s chances of reclaiming the majority sharply deteriorate. Their decline in fortunes can largely be attributed to Trump’s sagging support over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the sliding economy. “The campaign just wants the money. . . . They don’t care about the House — it’s not their concern,” one official close with the Trump campaign said. “When you’ve been working in politics for years, and you understand it’s a team sport, you kind of look at these things a little differently. I don’t think they see it that way.”

Trump has been raking in unprecedented amounts of cash — though presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden outraised him the past two months. The president’s fundraising committees and the RNC entered July with a whopping $295 million on hand, which is more than twice the $144 million that President Barack Obama had for his own reelection at the same point in 2012. In a statement, the RNC said no decision had been made. “We have a great working relationship with our sister committees,” McDaniel said. “Our priority is President Trump’s reelection, along with winning back the House and holding the Senate. Transfer requests like these are standard every cycle and final decisions typically aren’t made until after Labor Day. It is totally false to say that anyone is holding up a decision on a transfer commitment.” McCarthy declined to comment about his request.

The rejection has angered some Republicans, many of whom believe the president has a duty to help the party — not just himself. Those familiar with the dispute, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly, blame Kushner for failing to understand the importance of unity and working together. The refusal to help the NRCC is all the more striking because House Republicans in safe seats recently contributed to the president’s reelection, making donations of tens of thousands of dollars at the request of his campaign. The fundraising standoff comes as House Democrats have capitalized on Trump’s slumping approval ratings to go on offense, expanding the election map deeper into long-held Republican territory as they seek to increase the size of their majority.

House Republicans originally believed they could win back a large number of the 31 Democratic seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, but now the NRCC’s top Democratic targets are sitting on million-dollar accounts, making them difficult to unseat. In fact, the DCCC’s 42 most-vulnerable front-line members have an average 5-to-1 cash advantage over their GOP opponents. Additionally, 30 Democratic challengers outraised their Republican foes in the second quarter of 2020, putting the party in a prime position to grow their ranks in the House. “Washington Republicans have learned the hard way that encouraging people to drink bleach doesn’t make for the most effective fundraising pitch,” boasted Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, reveling in the House GOP’s money woes and referencing Trump’s claim about a treatment for covid-19. “House Democrats have outworked, out-hustled and outraised Republicans all cycle long. Our fundraising advantage is the firewall protecting our majority.” Senior House Republicans, meanwhile, have been privately panicked about the shortfall, which also extends to their campaign committee. The Democratic campaign committee has $94 million on hand while the GOP has $61 million — a $33 million cash advantage 100 days to the election.

Now more than ever, Republicans say, they need the help of Trump and the RNC. “They should try to get as much money as they can — as much as possible,” said outgoing Rep. Peter T. King (R-N.Y.), who said the money shortage has made him glad he’s retiring. Democrats, King added, are getting a major boost from the online fundraising platform Act Blue, which helped them win the House in 2018. Republicans, meanwhile, are seeing some of their longtime business donors hold back due to pandemic-triggered economic woes. Trump campaign and RNC officials have recently met with Republican aides from the Senate and the House to outline their ground-game operation and vowed to help with infrastructure and volunteers. But money is another question entirely, and House GOP lawmakers say it’s what they need most. “We’re worried — even the [House Republicans] who are doing well,” said one senior Republican lawmaker who suddenly finds himself in a competitive race and spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid. “The Democrats are just doing so well.”
***
The refusal also suggests that the Trump campaign is concerned about his reelection. While Trump has shattered fundraising records, Biden outraised him over the previous two months, gaining on the president amid the chaos of the pandemic. But while the Biden campaign did not announce its cash-on-hand figures in early July, the campaign — as well as the DNC and other affiliated committees — had $130 million as of the end of May, less than half of Trump’s war chest. At the request of Trump campaign officials, McCarthy and other senior Republicans in late May asked GOP lawmakers in safe seats to donate the maximum amount to Trump’s campaign from their committees and leadership PACs. Dozens followed through although the ask is unusual. “The money usually moves in the other direction: the presidential campaign works with the national party committees to support down-ballot candidates from the president’s party,” said Brett Kappel, a campaign finance attorney. It is unclear why House Republicans asked their members to give to the Trump campaign amid their own financial struggle. Some took it as McCarthy trying to show he was a team player. “Whenever the big man asks you to do it, you do it,” said one House Republican aide who was asked to contribute to the Trump campaign. “My question was: Do they really need the money? . . . Probably not. I took it as a show of force, a show of support and solidarity.”
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#835

Post by much ado »

Orlylicious wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:56 pm
First mail in voting is in September, not much time for the GOP to turn the Titanic around.
House GOP’s pleas to Republican National Committee for financial help go unanswered
By Rachael Bade, Josh Dawsey and Michelle Ye Hee Lee
July 25, 2020 at 7:00 a.m. EDT

:snippity:

The refusal also suggests that the Trump campaign is concerned about his reelection. While Trump has shattered fundraising records, Biden outraised him over the previous two months, gaining on the president amid the chaos of the pandemic. But while the Biden campaign did not announce its cash-on-hand figures in early July, the campaign — as well as the DNC and other affiliated committees — had $130 million as of the end of May, less than half of Trump’s war chest. At the request of Trump campaign officials, McCarthy and other senior Republicans in late May asked GOP lawmakers in safe seats to donate the maximum amount to Trump’s campaign from their committees and leadership PACs. Dozens followed through although the ask is unusual. “The money usually moves in the other direction: the presidential campaign works with the national party committees to support down-ballot candidates from the president’s party,” said Brett Kappel, a campaign finance attorney. It is unclear why House Republicans asked their members to give to the Trump campaign amid their own financial struggle. Some took it as McCarthy trying to show he was a team player. “Whenever the big man asks you to do it, you do it,” said one House Republican aide who was asked to contribute to the Trump campaign. “My question was: Do they really need the money? . . . Probably not. I took it as a show of force, a show of support and solidarity.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... Fstory-ans
Because Trump wants to pocket some of it, as much as possible. Isn't it obvious?

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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#836

Post by Frater I*I »

much ado wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:20 pm

Because Trump wants to pocket some of it, as much as possible. Isn't it obvious?
Exactly. Also, I think the "record fundraising" comes from the fact that President Plague has been bleeding the RNC right into his wallet, so they have to keep begging for cash...
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#837

Post by AndyinPA »

This is the man who tried to swindle his brothers and sisters out of his father's will, as told in Mary Trump's book. And these people think he's going to share "his" money with them?

:rotflmao:
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#838

Post by Orlylicious »

What a shame.

Republicans suddenly sweating falling deep into House minority
GOP leaders tout their chances to win back the majority, but falling poll numbers for Trump have some worried they could lose seats in November.
By ALLY MUTNICK 07/29/2020 04:30 AM EDT

A slew of dismal summer polls and a persistent fundraising gap have left some Republicans fretting about a nightmare scenario in November: That they will fall further into the House minority. Publicly, House GOP leaders are declaring they can still net the 17 seats needed to flip the chamber. But privately, some party strategists concede it’s a much grimmer picture, with as many as 20 Republican seats at risk of falling into Democratic hands. Far from going on offense, the GOP could be forced to retrench in order to limit its losses. There's a growing fear that President Donald Trump’s plummeting popularity in the suburbs could threaten GOP candidates in traditionally favorable districts, and that their party's eagerness to go on offense might leave some underfunded incumbents and open GOP-held seats unprotected.

Internal Democratic surveys in recent weeks have shown tight races in once-solid GOP seats in Indiana, Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Montana that Trump carried handily 2016 — data that suggest the battleground is veering in a dangerous direction for the GOP. "Republicans were jolted by the fact that a lot of white suburban voters abandoned them. The question now is whether that trend will continue," said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), who lost reelection in 2018. "If it does, it could endanger some of those districts, particularly in the Midwest." The first round of House GOP ad buys included reservations to defend only a half-dozen vulnerable members: Reps. John Katko of New York; Brian Fitzpatrick and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania; Rodney Davis of Illinois; Don Bacon of Nebraska; Mike Garcia of California; and an open seat in suburban Atlanta.

But polling and fundraising lags suggest a slew of other districts are becoming vulnerable, like those held by Reps. Chip Roy of Texas, Steve Chabot of Ohio and David Schweikert of Arizona, as well as open seats in Texas, the Indianapolis area and on Long Island. And should the environment worsen, other seats in North Carolina, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington state, central Virginia and Michigan could be at risk. Adding to GOP fears is Democrats' fundraising dominance. More than 30 House Republicans were outraised by a Democratic opponent last quarter, and 10 trail in cash-on-hand, according to a POLITICO analysis. Meanwhile, a dozen Democratic challengers had at least $1 million banked by the end of June. The disparity has left some vulnerable GOP incumbents anxious and eager for help from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the National Republican Congressional Committee, to which they pay dues.

“The DCCC's candidates are printing money, and the president's falling poll numbers are devastating to Republicans across the map," said a GOP member in a competitive district, granted anonymity to speak without fear of retribution. "That's why McCarthy and the NRCC need to hold the line and focus on saving incumbents first." Democrats' offensive map has ballooned in recent weeks as Trump's popularity has tanked, bringing once long-shot targets into reach if favorable conditions hold. The party has publicly released a slew of polls in June and July showing tight, low single-digit races in over a dozen GOP-held seats that Trump won — many of them with double-digit victory margins. Among the more surprising data: Democrat Kathleen Williams tied Republican Matt Rosendale in a race for Montana's open at-large seat, where Trump won by 20 points; Democrat Christina Hale was up 6 points in an open Indianapolis district that Trump carried by 12 in 2016; and Democrat Wendy Davis trailed Roy by just 1 point in a central Texas district Trump carried by 10 points. "The fact that the polling is close has got to be troubling in a lot of those districts, and the incumbents in those districts can't view themselves as too safe," said Mike DuHaime, a veteran GOP operative. "They must take it seriously."

Democrats could certainly fail to capture those seats, but their aggressive strategy might have serious implications, said DuHaime, the political director of the Republican National Committee in 2006 when Democrats took back the House. "If they are forcing Republicans to spend money there on defense, rather than spending money on offense, it's smart." Recent polling has also suggested Republicans have major problems in Texas, well beyond the three now-open seats that Democrats nearly captured in 2018. Internal surveys found single-digit races in Texas seats held by Reps. Van Taylor, Ron Wright and Roger Williams that Democrats did not even place on their ambitious target list. Trump won each by double digits in 2016.

The NRCC, however, has forcefully cast doubt on Democratic surveys that show red-leaning seats in play. “These polls being peddled by the DCCC are the same nonsense polls they peddled in ’16 and ’18 that routinely missed the mark by 10-15 points and should be taken with a grain of salt," said NRCC spokesperson Chris Pack. Republican polling has brought some good news. Recent surveys showed the GOP with a large lead in a Utah swing-seat held by Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams and close races in seats held by Reps. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Xochitl Torres Small (D-N.M.), Elaine Luria (D-Va.) and Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) — five of 30 Democrats who hold districts Trump won in 2016. Republicans also crowed this week about an internal poll that showed their star recruit to reclaim Curbelo's old seat, Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez, leading freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. And while many in the party concede the current environment is bleak, they say they expect Trump to recover enough in the next three months that the party won't suffer a 2008-style election that would wipe out Republican incumbents in what have historically been safer seats.

"This isn’t a rout shaping up at all," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former NRCC chair. "They got a money advantage. We got a terrain and candidate advantage." Still, most party strategists agree that while some offensive targets remain ripe, they will have to protect more Republican seats than they anticipated at the start of the cycle. The tension lies over just how defensive their strategy should get. Some Republican operatives are eager to see more defensive reservations in states, such as Ohio, Texas and Arizona, with major Senate or presidential contests that could boost prices for TV ads. No major GOP outside groups have booked in markets such as Dallas, which covers a highly competitive open seat; in Cincinnati, where Chabot is facing his second straight competitive race; or in Phoenix, where Schweikert, hobbled by an ethics investigation, has no funds to go on TV. Adding to GOP fears is the fact that Democratic challengers have a significant cash advantage and may be able to put a district in play with little outside spending.

In the second quarter, nearly all of the 30 candidates in the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program for top challenger campaigns outraised their Republican opponents. And as of June 30, half of them had more cash-on-hand. The problem is particularly acute in the open seats where Democratic candidates in Virginia, Texas, New York and Georgia have at least four times more in the bank. Incumbents have also lost their edge. Reps. Don Young (R-Alaska), Jim Hagedorn (R-Minn.), Roy and Davis all trail challengers in cash-on-hand. Schweikert had less than $240,000 after the second quarter while his Democratic challenger, Hiral Tipirneni, had over $1.6 million. That shortfall and his ethics issues have muddied his reelection in a seat Trump won by 10 points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee purposefully pushed an offensive strategy earlier in the cycle, hoping a cadre of well-funded recruits would help them capitalize on a continued suburban revolt.

"Republicans have been banking on 2018 being their rock bottom, particularly in the suburbs. But we’ve built a battlefield that is big," DCCC Executive Director Lucinda Guinn said in an interview. "We took back the House by going on offense in the suburbs, and we are going to continue pushing the boundaries." Guinn said the campaign arm is continually polling to check for new offensive opportunities in districts on the edges of the map that could come online, particularly as the financial disparities widen between Democratic and Republican candidates and the committees. The DCCC has $32 million more in the bank than its GOP counterpart as of June 30. Though she declined to explicitly predict that her party would gain seats in November, Guinn said public and private data indicate Democrats have a 9-to-11 point lead on the congressional general ballot — at least a point higher than it was at this stage in the 2018 cycle. "Even if there’s some tightening of the map, we are starting from a very strong place," she said. Redistricting in North Carolina has added to GOP woes. Two red seats were transformed into safe Democratic territory in a court-mandated redraw. And there’s mounting unease about Republican Rep. Richard Hudson, whose new district became more competitive and unites the Democratic stronghold of Fayetteville. He was outraised last quarter by a former state Supreme Court justice.

And to some, the environment looks ominously like 2008, when Republicans lost 21 additional seats two years after ceding the majority, and that the primary focus in 2020 should be limiting further losses. “Everything is extremely competitive for the Democrats,” said one top GOP pollster, granted anonymity to discuss private data. “This is 2006-2008 all over again, where the voters punished the party in power, which in '06 was Republicans, and in '18 was Republicans. They didn’t say, 'OK, we’re done,' after '06. There was continued punishment.” “If you’re in Vegas, betting," the pollster added, "you’re going to bet on Democrats picking up more seats right now than Republicans.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/2 ... ats-385760
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ZekeB
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#839

Post by ZekeB »

Cozy up to the dog rat and you get fleas.
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NotaPerson
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#840

Post by NotaPerson »

Orlylicious wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:46 pm
Republicans suddenly sweating falling deep into House minority
If this happens I will be very, very proud of myself. I've donated to at least a dozen Democratic House candidates in tight races for seats currently held by Republicans. :mrgreen:
Am I being detained?

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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#841

Post by Addie »

New York Times: Republicans Rebuke Trump for Floating Delaying Election

Top Republicans offered a rare rebuke of President Trump on Thursday, condemning his suggestion that the Nov. 3 general election be delayed — something he has no authority to order.

“Never in the history of the federal elections have we not held an election and we should go forward,” said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, adding that he understood “the president’s concern about mail-in voting.”

Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, declined to answer questions on Capitol Hill, but dismissed Mr. Trump’s suggestion in an interview with WNKY television in Bowling Green, Ky.

“Never in the history of the country, through wars, depressions, and the Civil War have we ever not had a federally scheduled election on time, and we’ll find a way to do that again this Nov. 3,” Mr. McConnell said. “We’ll cope with whatever the situation is and have the election on Nov. 3 as already scheduled.”
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#842

Post by Chilidog »

Washington(CNN) Sen. Mitch McConnell is allowing Republican Senate candidates to do whatever it takes to salvage their campaigns ahead of what Republicans increasingly fear could be a devastating election for their party.

In recent weeks, the Senate majority leader has become so concerned over Republicans losing control of the Senate that he has signaled to vulnerable GOP senators in tough races that they could distance themselves from the President if they feel it is necessary, according to multiple senior Republicans including a source close to McConnell.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/31/poli ... index.html

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much ado
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#843

Post by much ado »

Chilidog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:31 pm
Washington(CNN) Sen. Mitch McConnell is allowing Republican Senate candidates to do whatever it takes to salvage their campaigns ahead of what Republicans increasingly fear could be a devastating election for their party.

In recent weeks, the Senate majority leader has become so concerned over Republicans losing control of the Senate that he has signaled to vulnerable GOP senators in tough races that they could distance themselves from the President if they feel it is necessary, according to multiple senior Republicans including a source close to McConnell.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/31/poli ... index.html
I predicted some time ago that eventually Trump would become the scapegoat for all of the problems the GOP has. This is the first step.

The 'buck' will eventually stop there. The 'buck' will be handed to him by his own party.

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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#844

Post by Sunrise »

Chilidog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:31 pm
Washington(CNN) Sen. Mitch McConnell is allowing Republican Senate candidates to do whatever it takes to salvage their campaigns ahead of what Republicans increasingly fear could be a devastating election for their party.

In recent weeks, the Senate majority leader has become so concerned over Republicans losing control of the Senate that he has signaled to vulnerable GOP senators in tough races that they could distance themselves from the President if they feel it is necessary, according to multiple senior Republicans including a source close to McConnell.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/31/poli ... index.html
It’ll be interesting to see whether Susan Collins becomes worried, concerned, or distressed that IMPOTUS hasn’t learned his lesson, which she predicted would happen. We’ll be counting on Whatever4 to keep us up to date. :lol:
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#845

Post by neonzx »

Sunrise wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:45 pm
Chilidog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:31 pm
Washington(CNN) Sen. Mitch McConnell is allowing Republican Senate candidates to do whatever it takes to salvage their campaigns ahead of what Republicans increasingly fear could be a devastating election for their party.

In recent weeks, the Senate majority leader has become so concerned over Republicans losing control of the Senate that he has signaled to vulnerable GOP senators in tough races that they could distance themselves from the President if they feel it is necessary, according to multiple senior Republicans including a source close to McConnell.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/31/poli ... index.html
It’ll be interesting to see whether Susan Collins becomes worried, concerned, or distressed that IMPOTUS hasn’t learned his lesson, which she predicted would happen. We’ll be counting on Whatever4 to keep us up to date. :lol:
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#846

Post by Addie »

New York Times: Alienated by Trump, Suburban Voters Sour on G.O.P. in Battle for the House

House Republicans are on the defensive in suburban strongholds as voters reject President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus. ...


A self-described independent, Ms. Vaughn, 41, had supported Representative Ann Wagner, her Republican congresswoman, in past years, but more recently soured on her. This year, given her frustration and anger with Mr. Trump, Ms. Vaughn is confident she will not vote for Ms. Wagner and is wrestling with whether she in good conscience can vote again for any of the local Republicans down the ballot whom she would normally back.

“That is an issue that we’ve had my entire life and we still haven’t solved,” she said of the systemic racism that drove recent protests around the country, much as it did in 2014 in nearby Ferguson, Mo. “It’s just going to get swept under the rug again unless we do something significant at the polls in November.” ...

Suburban districts like these have long been critical bases of Republican support, packed with affluent white voters who reliably chose Republicans to represent them in Congress. Democrats seized control of the House in 2018 by making inroads in communities like these, and Republicans have tied their hopes of reclaiming power to preserving their remaining footholds there. But as Mr. Trump continues to stumble in his response to the pandemic and seeks to stir up racist fears with pledges to preserve the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream,” such districts are slipping further from the party’s grasp, and threatening to drag down congressional Republicans in November’s elections.

Interviews with more than two dozen party officials, strategists and voters in areas like these help explain what recent polls have found: that Mr. Trump’s strategy is alienating independent and even some conservative voters — particularly women and better-educated Americans — who are turned off by his partisan appeals and disappointed in his leadership. From the suburbs of St. Louis to Omaha to Houston, they expressed deep concern about Mr. Trump’s approach to twin national crises, lamenting his confident declarations that the coronavirus was under control and his move to stoke racial divides after nationwide protests over police brutality against Black Americans.

One result is that House Republicans, who began the election cycle hoping to win an uphill battle to recapture their majority — or at the very least, claw back some of the competitive districts they lost to Democrats in 2018 — are instead scrambling to shore up seats that once would have required little effort to hold. Analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently forecast that November could bring “a Democratic tsunami,” and placed once safe Republican incumbents on an “anti-Trump wave watch list.”

“We feel that we’re not only going to hold the House, we are going to grow the majority that we have,” Representative Cheri Bustos of Illinois, the chairwoman of House Democrats’ campaign arm, said in an interview. “With each passing month, that number of seats that we think that we can gain continues to grow.
"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver

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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#847

Post by ZekeB »

IMO the feeling in our country on October 1 will be the feeling on November 3. Voters have a short memory, but not that short of a memory. I think the Pubs were banking on Covid-19 being in rapid decline before then. They took a "let's get infected and get it over with" attitude. Life would be almost normal by then. Schools would be open and it would be January 2020 all over again. It has all backfired and they don't get to take a mulligan.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#848

Post by Slim Cognito »

I've seen several places that there are a lot fewer undecided voters at this point than there was in 2016, and once one makes a decision, it's not likely to change. Let's hope that's true.
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#849

Post by RoadScholar »

But critically important: folks must not get so convinced Trump will lose that they stay home.

Again.
The bitterest truth is healthier than the sweetest lie.
X3

Sunrise
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Re: 2020 GOP Rattled by Trump

#850

Post by Sunrise »

RoadScholar wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:06 pm
But critically important: folks must not get so convinced Trump will lose that they stay home.

Again.

:yeah: x 1000
M A C A Making America Care Again :daydream:

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