Trump's Trade Follicy

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1851

Post by RTH10260 » Thu May 16, 2019 11:45 am

Volkonski wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:32 am
This will just inspire overseas technology suppliers to develop alternative products to replace whatever the USA won't sell.
I predict too this will bigly backfire. I see a bleak future for US electronics companies as China will now start a race to develop electronics and chips and chipsets to replace them in a timeframe of three to five years. I bet on its way the Chinese will totally ignore what this dotus wanted to achive: to protect Intellectual Property.

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1852

Post by PaulG » Thu May 16, 2019 11:53 am

Meanwhile, we will get telephonic infrastructure from where exactly? I'm sure Putin has a few suggestions he's already passed on to big orange.

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1853

Post by RTH10260 » Thu May 16, 2019 11:55 am

PaulG wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:53 am
Meanwhile, we will get telephonic infrastructure from where exactly? I'm sure Putin has a few suggestions he's already passed on to big orange.
:twisted: AT&T ? Bell Labs ?

;)

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1854

Post by PaulG » Thu May 16, 2019 12:15 pm

RTH10260 wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:55 am
PaulG wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:53 am
Meanwhile, we will get telephonic infrastructure from where exactly? I'm sure Putin has a few suggestions he's already passed on to big orange.
:twisted: AT&T ? Bell Labs ?

;)
We'll use virtual routers, VMs hosted in the cloud. What does British Telecom use? Actually this reminds me of (probably exaggerated) estimates of the damage an EMP can do, simply because power companies use things like transformers that are on such a huge scale that they take years to build, cost a fortune and nobody keeps enough spares around to meet a large scale need.

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1855

Post by ZekeB » Thu May 16, 2019 1:01 pm

My router? My iPhone? My smart television? My desktop computer? My gas range? I wonder how many of those have software developed in China. Apparently I’m forbidden to use any of those now. Black helicopters in 3.. 2.. 1..
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1856

Post by woodworker » Fri May 17, 2019 6:12 pm

RTH10260 wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:45 am
Volkonski wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:32 am
This will just inspire overseas technology suppliers to develop alternative products to replace whatever the USA won't sell.
I predict too this will bigly backfire. I see a bleak future for US electronics companies as China will now start a race to develop electronics and chips and chipsets to replace them in a timeframe of three to five years. I bet on its way the Chinese will totally ignore what this dotus wanted to achive: to protect Intellectual Property.
China has already started developing it's own chip, et al, industries. Unfortunately, too many Americans (my WAS is approx. 56%) believe that the Chinese are incapable of competing with the US. I estimate 56% because, per some recent poll, that is the percentage of Americans who object to their children learning ARABIC numerals. Let's all go back to the good old days of Roman numerals -- so so much easier to learn and to use. God, I would love to see some reporter ask DOTUS about that.

IMHO, I think that: (1) the bumblefucks in the White House will grant export licenses to the major US companies now selling to Huawei because to not grant licenses would result in huge bigly losses for said US companies; (2) Huawei and other Chinese companies will accelerate their purchase from non-US vendors (so much more winning); (3) China will use the Boeing debacle to justify cutting back purchases from Boeing and increase same from Airbus; (4) China will find additional ways to cut back on US imports; and (5) China will accelerate their homegrown industries, including more intellectual property espionage. Additionally, China can afford to run some deficits for a while -- after all, they have how many trillions is US treasuries to spend for development, etc.
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1857

Post by woodworker » Fri May 17, 2019 6:32 pm

Re: Americans who believe they can just bully China:

“@Huawei 5G, RIP. Thanks for playing,” U.S. Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, wrote on Twitter. Nothing like feeding the Chinese paranoia.

Senator Tom Cotton, he of the "the Iran war will be easy - two strikes."
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1858

Post by Somerset » Fri May 17, 2019 6:37 pm

woodworker wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:12 pm
RTH10260 wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:45 am
Volkonski wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:32 am
This will just inspire overseas technology suppliers to develop alternative products to replace whatever the USA won't sell.
I predict too this will bigly backfire. I see a bleak future for US electronics companies as China will now start a race to develop electronics and chips and chipsets to replace them in a timeframe of three to five years. I bet on its way the Chinese will totally ignore what this dotus wanted to achive: to protect Intellectual Property.
China has already started developing it's own chip, et al, industries.
They're well beyond "started." HiSilicon (a wholly-owned subsidirary of Huawei) has smartphone processor (applications processor) chips that are equal to Apple's A12 and nearly equal to Qualcomm's 8 series. That said, both HiSilicon and Apple's processors are basically cobbled together from outside IP, so the degree of innovation isn't quite up to what the best of the best are doing.

Where China lags the rest of the world is with tool development. They have very high-end wafer fabs filled with tools from Applied Materials, LAM, ASML, Veeco, etc. When I was at Huawei, our internal data estimated that China's home-grown semiconductor tool sector needed at least 15, and likely 25 years to catch up with the US and Europe. So when Applied Materials halted support for a China fab recently (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China- ... chip-maker), I knew things were starting to escalate
Unfortunately, too many Americans (my WAS is approx. 56%) believe that the Chinese are incapable of competing with the US. I estimate 56% because, per some recent poll, that is the percentage of Americans who object to their children learning ARABIC numerals. Let's all go back to the good old days of Roman numerals -- so so much easier to learn and to use. God, I would love to see some reporter ask DOTUS about that.

IMHO, I think that: (1) the bumblefucks in the White House will grant export licenses to the major US companies now selling to Huawei because to not grant licenses would result in huge bigly losses for said US companies; (2) Huawei and other Chinese companies will accelerate their purchase from non-US vendors (so much more winning); (3) China will use the Boeing debacle to justify cutting back purchases from Boeing and increase same from Airbus; (4) China will find additional ways to cut back on US imports; and (5) China will accelerate their homegrown industries, including more intellectual property espionage. Additionally, China can afford to run some deficits for a while -- after all, they have how many trillions is US treasuries to spend for development, etc.
Expect China to leapfrog the US in electric vehicles, high-end displays (OLED and micro-LED) and possibly autonomous driving (although I certainly hope not).

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1859

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Fri May 17, 2019 6:57 pm

woodworker wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:32 pm
Re: Americans who believe they can just bully China:

“@Huawei 5G, RIP. Thanks for playing,” U.S. Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, wrote on Twitter. Nothing like feeding the Chinese paranoia.

Senator Tom Cotton, he of the "the Iran war will be easy - two strikes."
I hang my head in shame that Arkansas produced this alien!
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1860

Post by RTH10260 » Fri May 17, 2019 7:24 pm

From Sommersets source also
Exclusive: Huawei stockpiles 12 months of parts ahead of US ban
Fears of collateral damage hang over Chinese tech group's Asian supply chain

CHENG TING-FANG, LAULY LI and COCO LIU, Nikkei staff writers
MAY 17, 2019 00:54 JST

Huawei has been expanding its supplier base to prepare for uncertainties.

TAIPEI/HONG KONG -- Huawei Technologies told global suppliers six months ago it wanted to build up a year of crucial components to prepare for trade war uncertainties, even as it moved to secure new sources and become more self reliant, sources familiar with the plans told the Nikkei Asian Review.

Meanwhile, concerns are mounting in Huawei's Asian tech supply chain about collateral damage from the U.S. government's move to potentially block American and even foreign companies from doing business with the world's leading telecom equipment maker, whose global procurement totals around $67 billion a year. Shares in companies whose fortunes depend in part on Huawei business sold off Thursday.

The reaction followed a statement Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce that it was placing the company on a export control list. The listing, once in effect, means that all of Huawei's American suppliers will require U.S. government approval to sell to the Chinese company.


https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-w ... -of-US-ban

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1861

Post by RTH10260 » Fri May 17, 2019 7:26 pm

Squeezing Canada
China hits back at Trump's move to blacklist Huawei
Beijing also formally arrests two Canadians detained in China

Nikkei staff writers
MAY 16, 2019 19:23 JST

TOKYO -- Beijing hit back on Thursday at U.S. President Donald Trump's move that paves the way for a total ban on American companies doing business with Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies.

Responding to Trump's signing of an executive order that prohibits American companies from using foreign information technology and services deemed a national security risk, China's Commerce Ministry said it opposed other countries imposing unilateral sanctions on Chinese entities.

"China has emphasized many times that the concept of national security should not be abused, and that it should not be used as a tool for trade protectionism," ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters in Beijing, without mentioning the U.S. in name. "China will take all the necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese companies," he said in comments reported by Reuters.

Trump's move has greatly increased pressure on Beijing on both the security and trade fronts. Earlier this month, the president claimed that China had reneged on concessions made during five months of trade negotiations.

Separately on Thursday, China's Foreign Ministry said that two Canadian citizens detained in the country had been formally arrested. Former diplomat Michael Kovrig has been charged with gathering state secrets, and businessman Michael Spavor has been held on charges of stealing secrets for overseas forces.


https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-w ... ist-Huawei

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1862

Post by HST's Ghost » Sat May 18, 2019 12:05 am

Interesting overview of all the consequences and outcomes of Drumpf's Trade follicles...
Note about the author: He worked as the main interpreter for Richard Nixon during his 1972 China visit...
On Hostile Coexistence with China
Remarks to the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies China Program

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.)
Senior Fellow, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University
Stanford, California, 3 May 2019

President Trump’s trade war with China has quickly metastasized into every other domain of Sino-American relations. Washington is now trying to dismantle China’s interdependence with the American economy, curb its role in global governance, counter its foreign investments, cripple its companies, block its technological advance, punish its many deviations from liberal ideology, contest its borders, map its defenses, and sustain the ability to penetrate those defenses at will.

:snippity: :snippity:

It’s also not clear which country is most likely to be hurt by U.S. government obstruction of collaboration between Chinese and American STEM workers. There is a good chance the greatest damage will be to the United States. A fair number of native-born Americans seem more interested in religious myths, magic, and superheroes than in science. U.S. achievements in STEM owe much to immigration and to the presence of Chinese and other foreign researchers in America’s graduate schools. The Trump administration is trying to curtail both.

China already possesses one-fourth of the world’s STEM workforce. It is currently graduating three times as many STEM students annually as the United States. (Ironically, a significant percentage of STEM graduates in the United States are Chinese or other Asian nationals. Around half of those studying computer sciences in the United States are such foreigners.) American loss of contact with scientists in China and a reduced Chinese presence in U.S. research institutions can only retard the further advance of science in the United States.

China is rapidly increasing its investments in education, basic science, research, and development even as the United States reduces funding for these activities, which are the foundation of technological advance. The pace of innovation in China is visibly accelerating. Cutting Americans off from interaction with their Chinese counterparts while other countries continue risks causing the United States to fall behind not just China but other foreign competitors.

https://chasfreeman.net/on-hostile-coex ... ith-china/
(Bolding is mine) I highlighted the STEM stuff given Drumpf's new immigration policy proposal. The failure of US education in general and the rise of the absolutely gleefully ignorant (from Qanon to anti-vaxxers to flat-earthers...all of the 'alt-right') is going to quite quickly bite the US in the ass...Barring the manual labor immigrants that are still needed to great degree in key industries and not being able to attract the young Asian STEM grads you need....
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1863

Post by Volkonski » Sat May 18, 2019 8:18 am

I can remember when Americans thought that Japan would never be a serious technological/industrial competitor to the USA. We know how that turned out.
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1864

Post by RTH10260 » Sun May 19, 2019 8:52 am

Walmart says it will raise prices because of tariffs

By Nathaniel Meyersohn, CNN Business
Updated 1436 GMT (2236 HKT) May 16, 2019

New York (CNN Business)Walmart, America's largest retailer, said Thursday it will raise prices on some products as a result of the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese goods.

"We're going to continue to do everything we can to keep prices low. That's who we are. However, increased tariffs will lead to increased prices, we believe, for our customers." Walmart chief financial officer Brett Biggs told reporters on a call after the retailer reported earnings for the first quarter of 2019.

Biggs did not say which items will become more expensive at Walmart. He noted, however, that Walmart's merchant teams have been developing strategies to mitigate cost increases and working with its suppliers to manage prices.


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/16/busi ... index.html

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1865

Post by Slim Cognito » Sun May 19, 2019 9:04 am

HST's Ghost wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 12:05 am
....

(Bolding is mine) I highlighted the STEM stuff given Drumpf's new immigration policy proposal. The failure of US education in general and the rise of the absolutely gleefully ignorant (from Qanon to anti-vaxxers to flat-earthers...all of the 'alt-right') is going to quite quickly bite the US in the ass...Barring the manual labor immigrants that are still needed to great degree in key industries and not being able to attract the young Asian STEM grads you need....
I wonder how trump and his minions will react when they realize we get a lot of highly skilled Muslim doctors. You'd think rural America would already realize this as they're often the only doctors willing to work out in the sticks.
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1866

Post by Lani » Sun May 19, 2019 5:10 pm

Heh. My 2 specialist doctors at Kaiser - one from Kenya, one from India.
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1867

Post by RTH10260 » Sun May 19, 2019 6:59 pm

Atlanta Defense Lawyers Question Charges Against Stem Cell Researchers Over Iran Sanctions
Defense lawyers claim the seized items are exempt from Iranian sanctions.
By R. Robin McDonald | May 13, 2019 at 05:56 PM

Two Atlanta defense attorneys say they’re puzzled by the federal government’s decision to prosecute an Iranian professor renowned for stem cell research and two of his former students for alleged trade sanction violations over eight vials of human growth hormone.

They are equally troubled by the circumstances that prompted federal authorities to secretly indict Dr. Masoud Soleimani last year, and a decision to cancel his research visa while he was already en route from Iran to Minnesota to work at the Mayo Clinic. Federal authorities took him into custody when he landed in the U.S. in October.

Since then, Soleimani—a professor and biomedical researcher at the University of Tehran— has been held in Atlanta without bond, said his Atlanta attorney, Leonard Franco.

The hormone—a form of synthetic protein—was seized from one of Soleimani’s former students in 2016 by customs authorities in Atlanta. The seizure took place at a time when the U.S. was still a party to the international nuclear accords with Iran and sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation had been eased.

“I truly don’t understand it,” Franco said of the government’s decision to prosecute. Looking at the case in a light most favorable to the government, Franco said it appears to be “some type of policy argument.”


https://www.law.com/dailyreportonline/2 ... sanctions/

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1868

Post by kate520 » Mon May 20, 2019 11:01 am

Mr. 520’s business, customer rubber molding, - think gaskets and seals you can’t buy off-the-shelf - is starting to feel the effects of our trade follicy. Although the weekly orders are still strong, his customers are not paying their bills. His AR has been stretched almost to the breaking point, as companies wait for all the stupid trump decision shoes to drop at once; their costs and ours keep on rising.

They’re ordering parts and delaying payments, hoping that they’ll have enough cash flow themselves to make some payments on their past orders before being cut off on future orders. Even his best customers who’ve been with us for more than 20 years are having troubles. It’s bad enough that we’ve cancelled our summer vacation.

:crying: :crying: :crying:
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1869

Post by RVInit » Mon May 20, 2019 11:23 am

kate520 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 11:01 am
Mr. 520’s business, customer rubber molding, - think gaskets and seals you can’t buy off-the-shelf - is starting to feel the effects of our trade follicy. Although the weekly orders are still strong, his customers are not paying their bills. His AR has been stretched almost to the breaking point, as companies wait for all the stupid trump decision shoes to drop at once; their costs and ours keep on rising.

They’re ordering parts and delaying payments, hoping that they’ll have enough cash flow themselves to make some payments on their past orders before being cut off on future orders. Even his best customers who’ve been with us for more than 20 years are having troubles. It’s bad enough that we’ve cancelled our summer vacation.

:crying: :crying: :crying:
:bighug: I am so sorry. This really pisses me off. I'm betting that the Trump administration is not going to offer you the same hand-out that farmers are getting. The reason for the hand-out is pretty simple - agriculture is part of a very important rural voting block. In spite of the fact that Trump's policies are damaging their business they are still supporting Trump largely because they will not (at least immediately) feel the real impact of his policies. I really wish that every damn person who voted for this pustule would personally suffer the consequences of voting for that piece of garbage.
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1870

Post by RTH10260 » Mon May 20, 2019 12:05 pm

Google reportedly ends business with Huawei, will cut it off from Play Store [Updated]
Trump's Huawei ban means no early access to Android Q, no Google app ecosystem.
RON AMADEO - 5/20/2019, 3:47 PM

Update: Statements from Google and Huawei, other companies join the ban

Huawei sent a statement to Ars Technica and others about the ban, saying "Huawei will continue to provide security updates and after-sales services to all existing Huawei and Honor smartphone and tablet products, covering those that have been sold and that are still in stock globally. We will continue to build a safe and sustainable software ecosystem, in order to provide the best experience for all users globally."

View more stories Google issued only a terse one-liner, saying "We are complying with the order and reviewing the implications." On Twitter, the company's official Android account was a bit friendlier, saying "For Huawei users' questions regarding our steps to comply w/ the recent US government actions: We assure you while we are complying with all US gov't requirements, services like Google Play & security from Google Play Protect will keep functioning on your existing Huawei device."


https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2019/05 ... lay-store/

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1871

Post by kate520 » Mon May 20, 2019 12:12 pm

trump can’t possible think that America is ready for manufacturing to return, and if he does he’s even more dense than I thought. Aside from the pollution and climate change aspects of it, over the NAFTA years our manufacturing capacities have been decimated. Our supply chains are world-wide, our manufacturing equipment is out of date. We pretty much relinquished these things to countries we thought could handle the pollution, and then our standard of living gradually sank to meet theirs. They told us theirs would rise to meet ours, but we knew better.

This is like some weird Alice in Wonderland place we find ourselves, eh? The “leader of the free world” fomenting discontent in his own country, destabilizing it’s economy. Maybe it’s a test by an alien race to see if we’re worthy of continued existence, or if maybe we’ll blast ourselves to kingdom come and save them the trouble.
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1872

Post by Slim Cognito » Mon May 20, 2019 12:19 pm

kate520 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 12:12 pm
...

This is like some weird Alice in Wonderland place we find ourselves, eh? The “leader of the free world” fomenting discontent in his own country, destabilizing it’s economy. Maybe it’s a test by an alien race to see if we’re worthy of continued existence, or if maybe we’ll blast ourselves to kingdom come and save them the trouble.
My money is on #2.
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1873

Post by kate520 » Mon May 20, 2019 12:22 pm

On my better days, I’m fully behind #1.

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1874

Post by Slim Cognito » Mon May 20, 2019 12:34 pm

kate520 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 12:22 pm
On my better days, I’m fully behind #1.

How old is your beautiful birdie, Slim?
Molly is about 12. She's a rescue so unsure. We think she was about a year when we got her. The original owner kept her in the furnace room in the basement because she "talked too much."
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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1875

Post by Gregg » Mon May 20, 2019 5:19 pm

kate520 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 12:12 pm
trump can’t possible think that America is ready for manufacturing to return, and if he does he’s even more dense than I thought. Aside from the pollution and climate change aspects of it, over the NAFTA years our manufacturing capacities have been decimated. Our supply chains are world-wide, our manufacturing equipment is out of date. We pretty much relinquished these things to countries we thought could handle the pollution, and then our standard of living gradually sank to meet theirs. They told us theirs would rise to meet ours, but we knew better.

This is like some weird Alice in Wonderland place we find ourselves, eh? The “leader of the free world” fomenting discontent in his own country, destabilizing it’s economy. Maybe it’s a test by an alien race to see if we’re worthy of continued existence, or if maybe we’ll blast ourselves to kingdom come and save them the trouble.
I disagree. We manufacture more goods than we ever have, and our machinery is state of the art oftentimes. But the rub is, more sophisticated manufacturing requires fewer people, productivity has been growing since at least the 70's with few downs. When my father worked at the transmission plant, it had 5,000 employees who cranked out 2400 3 peed transmissions a day. That same plant now build 1,600 6 speeds and 1,000 10 speeds, both a world more complicated with 3 times as many part, all of it to much tighter standards, with 1200 employees. And we're getting ready to launch a new model 10 speed heavy box with only a few dozen more employees needed, factoring in the down ramp of 6 speed production.
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