LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#601

Post by fierceredpanda » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:39 pm

Uninformed wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:38 pm
While being interviewed by the BBC the Minister for Business and Industry, Richard Harrington (I think it was he), mentioned the possibility of rescinding Article 50. Not sure he meant to say that.
:winner:


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#602

Post by Adrianinflorida » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:04 pm

Uninformed wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:38 pm
While being interviewed by the BBC the Minister for Business and Industry, Richard Harrington (I think it was he), mentioned the possibility of rescinding Article 50. Not sure he meant to say that.
The EU court, in December, said that the UK could rescind or cancel their article 50 filing before March 30, and remain in the EU under their current agreements. The Leavers would melt down, but at least maybe the UK economy might survive. That said, many companies have pulled money and staff out already, so it could be too late



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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#603

Post by Reality Check » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:46 pm

Today is the final day of debate in the House of Commons before the vote on May's deal tomorrow. You can watch live on several feeds. Here is one:



I think May's deal will fail badly. There seems to be growing support for extending the March 29th deadline.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#604

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:52 pm

I'm not sure what good an extension will do. My understanding is that the EU might be willing to extend until July, but I doubt that another 3 or 4 months will result in substantial changes in any of the negotiating positions.

May doesn't have the strength to push through her deal, but she retains (probably) sufficient support to fend off a formal no-confidence vote. And Reese-Mogg and his merry band of Dickensian cast-offs shot their wad already - she's immune from a within-party challenge for a substantial period of time now. May also isn't going to agree to a new referendum because she simply cannot without what's left of her government collapsing.

Corbyn doesn't actually want to force a new referendum, the Parliamentary Labour Party doesn't have the grassroots support to force Corbyn out, and even if they managed that without totally fracturing, it's not clear that they have a viable replacement who could both (1) take over; and (2) force a new referendum in the time remaining, even if this time were to be extended until July.

Meanwhile, the single major sticking point is the Irish border.

The UK's negotiating position is locked into coming up with a solution that would inevitably have the effect of changing Ireland's relationship with the rest of the EU, because the only other alternative (changing Northern Ireland's relationship with the rest of the UK) would likely lead to collapse of the UK government because this is unacceptable to the DUP, who hold the balance of power. And then there's the Northern Ireland peace process to consider, of course.

The EU negotiating, meanwhile, cannot agree to anything that would alter Ireland's relationship with the rest of the EU - even if Ireland consented - consistently with is own treaty requirements. It's not just that they're just locked into the position because they don't want to move; it's simply no more possible for them to do so than it would be for the USA to enter into a treaty that required censorship of material otherwise protected by the First Amendment.

This isn't a scenario where a few more months will allow the hammering out of an acceptable compromise between the two. There simply is no compromise to be had.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#605

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:36 pm

Addendum: I just used Google Maps to have a bit of a look at the Ireland-Northern Ireland border. A hard border is not achievable. It's not as bad as some of those places in the Low Countries where there are little islands of one country in the other, but yeah, it's basically like that. There are people with house and most of driveway in one country, only access road to house in the other, that kind of thing.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#606

Post by Reality Check » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:23 pm

There were border control stations on the roads connecting Ireland and Northern Ireland. These were one of the main points of contention during the Time of Troubles and were targeted for attacks. They were eliminated after the Good Friday Agreement was signed.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#607

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:58 pm

Reality Check wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:23 pm
There were border control stations on the roads connecting Ireland and Northern Ireland. These were one of the main points of contention during the Time of Troubles and were targeted for attacks. They were eliminated after the Good Friday Agreement was signed.
There were checkpoints, but quite a few were set back into Northern Ireland a bit - they weren't strictly speaking on the border, and there was never really complete coverage. (I heard a lot about that growing up; my best friend was from County Cavin, and went back every year. His family, like quite a few in the area, farmed fields on both sides of the border even during the Troubles.) And even then, while there were security checks, the two countries were still part of a common travel union so there weren't full customs checks. Those are a whole different thing and require much more infrastructure - infrastructure which isn't there.

I just scanned the border in a few places with Google, but it immediately became clear how porous it is. There are places where the border itself runs down a road, with houses set on either side of the road. There are spots where the border runs through a village or hamlet. There look to be a few places where a business has outbuildings on the other side of the border from the main establishment.

I was thinking about trying to count roads that cross the border, but gave it up almost immediately. I started looking near Londonderry, and the first thing I saw coming down from the coast was a point where there's a road that crosses the border, or you could maybe take a short cut through Reddin's Coaches, because they've got one driveway in the UK and another in Ireland. Best guess, and even accounting for places where you could put a checkpoint back a from the border slightly to cover multiple roads, there are something like a dozen roads crossing the border just in the small area around Derry.

They could declare that it's a hard border legally, but in practice it's going to leak like a sieve. It'll be a smuggler's paradise.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#608

Post by kate520 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:10 pm

Forgive this question, I haven’t been following BREXIT closely.

Is it possible to create a soft border, one that takes into account the current difficult situations? Like a DMZ with no M?


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#609

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:16 pm

kate520 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:10 pm
Forgive this question, I haven’t been following BREXIT closely.

Is it possible to create a soft border, one that takes into account the current difficult situations? Like a DMZ with no M?
Here's the problem in a nutshell:

When the UK leaves, the UK will no longer be part of the free trade area that goes along with being part of the EU. That, in turn, means that there will be tariffs and other trade barriers separating the EU from the UK. Ireland, however, will be in the EU. This means there's a right for firms to (eg) ship goods duty- and inspection-free from Spain, or Italy, or Lithuania, to Ireland. But then, abruptly, there would then be no duty- or inspection-free shipment from Ireland to the UK.

Without a hard border, how does the UK ensure that goods aren't being smuggled from all over the EU into the UK via Ireland?

:pickle:


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#610

Post by Estiveo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:27 pm

They should build a wall.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#611

Post by Foggy » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:12 pm

Sounds like the UK is in need of some grownups.


Impeach the mofo.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#612

Post by Piskey » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:03 pm

Estiveo wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:27 pm
They should build a wall.
LOL. :lol: :lol: :rotflmao:

Thanks. At least there's one daft idea we've not seized with both hands.
That helps



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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#613

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:42 pm

Dear friends of mine owned a mid sized business in London for 25 years, but the Brexit uncertainty encouraged them to sell the business and move back to Seattle. So there are real things happening.

Didn't Nigel Farage and Donald promise this was going to be really easy and fabulous? Where's Nigel?
Theresa May Races to Save Her Brexit Deal From a Historic Defeat
May Warns a ‘Paralysis in Parliament’ Could Jeopardize Brexit
Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain made a last-ditch attempt to save her Brexit deal ahead of a crucial vote on Tuesday. “If no deal is as bad as you believe it is,” she said, “it will be the height of recklessness” to kill it. Mrs. May fears the expected defeat of her plan could threaten the whole Brexit project.
By Stephen Castle Jan. 14, 2019

Ahead of a vote on her Brexit plan that could go down to a humiliating defeat in Parliament, Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain was fighting on Monday less to avert the loss than to limit its scale.

In that vein, Mrs. May enlisted fresh promises from Europe’s most senior officials through an exchange of letters and warned supporters of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union that the whole project would be threatened if her deal was voted down as expected.

Neither tactic looked likely to change the overall outcome, but if Mrs. May can curb the magnitude of any defeat to manageable proportions, she could avert an immediate political meltdown. That, given the precarious state of events, would be a victory of sorts.

Speaking in a ceramics factory in Stoke-on-Trent, an area that voted heavily to leave the European Union, Mrs. May warned that Britain’s failure to withdraw from the bloc would risk “a subversion of the democratic process” and do “catastrophic harm” to faith in politics.

Though she carefully refused to rule it out, Mrs. May insisted that she has no intention of seeking to extend the negotiating deadline of March 29 laid down under Article 50 of the European Union’s treaty.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/worl ... e=Homepage


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#614

Post by Piskey » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:07 am

I don't know what the NYT would consider to be a defeat of manageable proportions but Mrs May is going to lose that vote tomorrow by a landslide.
Channel 4 predict around 200 /420

That factory she gave her speech in today had received an EU grant
of £400K. Post-Brexit it will probably fold.

Her speech needed a significant last minute rewrite after advance copies were fact checked. Still chock full of dubious statements but the really embarrassing fibs were removed.



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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#615

Post by Suranis » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:31 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:58 pm
I just scanned the border in a few places with Google, but it immediately became clear how porous it is. There are places where the border itself runs down a road, with houses set on either side of the road. There are spots where the border runs through a village or hamlet. There look to be a few places where a business has outbuildings on the other side of the border from the main establishment.
There was an attempt to make the border a bit more rational right after the creation of Northern Ireland, but of course it became completely mired in politics between "wishes of the population" and "geographical", and when the second argument won out in the committee and people realized this would mean some small bits of the south getting handed over, they immediately quashed the report. So the border was stuck on the existing random county borders, which were never meant to be an actual national barrier.


Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#616

Post by fierceredpanda » Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:00 am

Part of the problem is the utter ignorance of the British electorate. A lot of them seem convinced that the negative consequences they've been warned about are "scaremongering" and nothing more. This is what happens when you let charlatans like Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage gallivant around the country, telling everyone how great the post-Brexit utopia will be, totally divorced from any responsibility should things turn out otherwise. I've seen two pieces in as many days - one in the New York Times and one in the Washington Post - featuring quotes from Average Joe Britons who want to "just get on with it." One person even says, "Well, if it goes badly, we can always go back in. We won't know until we try."

Yeah, and I won't know what will happen if I jump off a 1000-foot cliff until I try.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#617

Post by Tarrant » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:00 am

fierceredpanda wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:00 am
Part of the problem is the utter ignorance of the British electorate. A lot of them seem convinced that the negative consequences they've been warned about are "scaremongering" and nothing more. This is what happens when you let charlatans like Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage gallivant around the country, telling everyone how great the post-Brexit utopia will be, totally divorced from any responsibility should things turn out otherwise. I've seen two pieces in as many days - one in the New York Times and one in the Washington Post - featuring quotes from Average Joe Britons who want to "just get on with it." One person even says, "Well, if it goes badly, we can always go back in. We won't know until we try."

Yeah, and I won't know what will happen if I jump off a 1000-foot cliff until I try.
It absolutely incenses me that you can have a vote where the backers of a given side are telling full-on untruths about their side during the campaign, and, in the case of the “Let’s give £350 million a week to the NHS” Brexit slogan, freely and gleefully admit afterward that it was all a lie to get rubes to vote for it, and yet still say “Sorry, the People Have Spoken, it is Absolute, No Revote, You Lose” without a hint of irony. There’s a lot of people that believed that lie (especially because when Remainers called them on it, the Leave side completely said “Nope it’s totally true!”) and voted Leave based on it.

I feel the same way about propositions and amendments on ballots at times in the US, where the Fluffy Bunny Everybody Loves Kittens Amendment is actually sponsored by industry and actually clearcuts a National Forest to allow strip mining, but all the commercials in favor talk about all these things it’ll do that it doesn’t. And when it passes, it’s like “HAHA FOOLED YOU! NOW IT’S PERMANENT THE PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN!” They didn’t speak. They voted for something you told them they were voting for and you lied through your teeth.

Yes, yes, people do need to work to inform themselves better, but it can be very hard to do so, and if they Google it there will be just as many fake sites giving the fake information, saying they’re sponsored by the “We Love America Save the Forest Foundation” (funded by KillTheForests, Inc.) as there will be true ones.



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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#618

Post by Mikedunford » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:25 pm

fierceredpanda wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:00 am
Part of the problem is the utter ignorance of the British electorate. A lot of them seem convinced that the negative consequences they've been warned about are "scaremongering" and nothing more. This is what happens when you let charlatans like Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage gallivant around the country, telling everyone how great the post-Brexit utopia will be, totally divorced from any responsibility should things turn out otherwise. I've seen two pieces in as many days - one in the New York Times and one in the Washington Post - featuring quotes from Average Joe Britons who want to "just get on with it." One person even says, "Well, if it goes badly, we can always go back in. We won't know until we try."

Yeah, and I won't know what will happen if I jump off a 1000-foot cliff until I try.
I said this quite a while back - I've updated the timeline, but that's all:
The way the language of the treaty is written, the UK has already jumped off the cliff. The parties have less than two years 73 days left to negotiate the question of whether there will be a safety net at the bottom. In the absence of an agreement, splat happens.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#619

Post by AndyinPA » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:49 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ity-of-230
Theresa May has sustained the heaviest parliamentary defeat of any British prime minister in the democratic era after MPs rejected her Brexit deal by a resounding majority of 230.
Brexit vote: May faces historic defeat as deal's fate looms – Politics live
Read more

Brexit-supporting Conservatives joined with opposition parties and the Democratic Unionist party to trounce the government in the “meaningful vote”, which the prime minister delayed before Christmas in the vain hope of winning over waverers.

May made a last-ditch plea to colleagues to support her as she closed the eight-day Brexit debate on Tuesday, warning them not to break their promise to the British people to deliver Brexit.



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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#620

Post by Tarrant » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:51 pm

And Corbyn has tabled a vote of no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government for tomorrow, as promised should the vote go against May.



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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#621

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:08 pm

fierceredpanda wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:00 am
Part of the problem is the utter ignorance of the British electorate. A lot of them seem convinced that the negative consequences they've been warned about are "scaremongering" and nothing more. This is what happens when you let charlatans like Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage gallivant around the country, telling everyone how great the post-Brexit utopia will be, totally divorced from any responsibility should things turn out otherwise. I've seen two pieces in as many days - one in the New York Times and one in the Washington Post - featuring quotes from Average Joe Britons who want to "just get on with it." One person even says, "Well, if it goes badly, we can always go back in. We won't know until we try."

Yeah, and I won't know what will happen if I jump off a 1000-foot cliff until I try.
When the UK joined the then EEC (European Economic Community) in 1973, there were only 6 nations that had to agree to the UK membership. Now known as the EC there would be 25 countries (with tendency rising) that need to welcome a former member back into their folds. Many of which will vote against cause of the bad experience that they and their citizens had with the departing UK.



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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#622

Post by Mikedunford » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:13 pm

Tarrant wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:51 pm
And Corbyn has tabled a vote of no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government for tomorrow, as promised should the vote go against May.
That's probably not going to succeed. And probably is going to make things worse.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#623

Post by Suranis » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:17 pm

Frankly, May should just say "ok, Norway Package?" at the EU, and let them say "Good enough" and that be that. But I doubt even that is possible due to how the UK has fucked this up. AND, even worse, pissed everyone off.

I'm undecided on the No confidence vote, but I cant imagine Corbyn actually wanting to be PM when its time to lead the UK into this maelstrom.


Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#624

Post by Notorial Dissent » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:22 pm

House of Commons' 432-202 vote against May's Brexit plan - No confidence vote on Wed.


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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#625

Post by Reality Check » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:28 pm

Notorial Dissent wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:22 pm
House of Commons' 432-202 vote against May's Brexit plan - No confidence vote on Wed.
It was the worst defeat for the government since 1924. This is historic. How can she survive this?


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