Covid-19 Numbers

[RTH10260]

More than
702,000
people have died from coronavirus in the U.S.



More than 43,648,000 cases have been reported.

Data as of October 4 at 11:15 p.m.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... es-deaths/

[Uninformed]

According to Worldometers it’s 720,820.

P.S. Anybody believe the figures coming out of Florida? (Worldometers has no figures for the last couple of days).

[RTH10260]

IIRC the FL numbers always lagged, and especially don't report over the weekend.

[Uninformed]

Yup, only posted the last bit in case anyone went looking for figures.

[p0rtia]

P.S. Anybody believe the figures coming out of Florida? (Worldometers has no figures for the last couple of days).

This is a complex question. What RTH said is true in the main: FL only reports case and death numbers every few days; The death numbers are for "day of death" rather than "day death was reported". The result of the latter is that the graph of deaths in FL always appears to be going downward that, and the number of new deaths reported in Sept for a new day is always very low, usually from 0 to 10, although in reality the seven day average was in the 300s.

But that's just where it starts. Florida has stopped encouraging testing, so the "percent positive" and the "cases reported" numbers are way the hell off. They have also stopped giving county-by-county numbers (which sane people might think would be a useful metric to avoid death).

However, the county health departments continue to give the number of hospitalized COVID patients, as well as deaths. At least, the county I check does.

So, do I believe the numbers coming out of Florida? Yes, but not without qualifications.

On Worldometer you can check the totals and discover that 15,000 peopled needlessly died in Florida between Aug 1 to Sept 30. Compare with 1,800 death in the slightly smaller NY over the same period. Over 90 percent unvaccinated deaths in both States, of course. What's the difference? Vaccination rates are lower in FL, but not abysmal. NY is about 75% fully vaccinated for 12 and older; Florida 668. The difference is masking in closed spaces and mandates. IMO, there are two Floridas now: the one made up of folks who are responding sanely to the pandemic and the ones who arenet.

[Suranis]

That's about a 1.6% mortality rate. But of course that does not include the effects of Long Covid and long recovery times and so on. People just focus on the mortality rate, but very few people died of Polio and somehow people regarded that as a terrible disease.

I think focusing on just the death rates is doing this thing a disservice. The a large part of the real damage is the body wrecking effects of this bug.

[Uninformed]

Thanks P0rtia.

[p0rtia]

That's about a 1.6% mortality rate. But of course that does not include the effects of Long Covid and long recovery times and so on. People just focus on the mortality rate, but very few people died of Polio and somehow people regarded that as a terrible disease.

Assuming you were responding to my post (and ignore me if not): How did you arrive at 1.6%? And for where?

I think focusing on just the death rates is doing this thing a disservice. The a large part of the real damage is the body wrecking effects of this bug.

Of course. I've looked for these numbers a few times. I think it is too early to even get a clue. And in DeathSantistan, this issue is vigorously ignored, so it may never be known.

[Suranis]

Assuming you were responding to my post (and ignore me if not): How did you arrive at 1.6%? And for where?

I just divided 720,000 by 43,648,000. The answer was 0.0164956011730205, or 1.65%, rounding up.

[p0rtia]

Assuming you were responding to my post (and ignore me if not): How did you arrive at 1.6%? And for where?

I just divided 720,000 by 43,648,000. The answer was 0.0164956011730205, or 1.65%, rounding up.

Thanks.

So 43,648,000 is reported positive cases, yes? But that number is bound to be wildly off (low). For that matter, the 720 K is also no doubt way, way low.

No way to know the mortality rate. Or the real death rate. IHME currently estimates in excess deaths as over 1,200,000 in the US. I can't find the estimate of actual cases (as opposed to reported cases) at the moment, but it is astronomical.

Mortality rate won't be known for a while.

Even with the no doubt low 55,000 deaths in FL, that means 1 in 400 Floridians has died of COVID. At least.

[AndyinPA]

From the beginning, I have thought that the numbers are being grossly under-counted, but I doubt we will ever know the true numbers. It wouldn't surprise me if they were twice that high. I think there were misdiagnoses at first; people who didn't, and still don't, want that diagnosis on a death certificate; poor testing rates; and probably other things I don't know enough about to take into consideration. The death rate may not be double, but I think the people actually infected with the virus could be.

[W. Kevin Vicklund]

From the beginning, I have thought that the numbers are being grossly under-counted, but I doubt we will ever know the true numbers. It wouldn't surprise me if they were twice that high. I think there were misdiagnoses at first; people who didn't, and still don't, want that diagnosis on a death certificate; poor testing rates; and probably other things I don't know enough about to take into consideration. The death rate may not be double, but I think the people actually infected with the virus could be.

Indeed, a study came out last month that looked at blood donors' antibodies (S only means vaccinated, S+N means infected) through the end of May, and calculated that the true infection rate was double. At that point in time, it meant that a full 20% of the US population had been infected; that number has gone up as Delta has taken hold.

[Volkonski]

[Notaperson]

New CDC data reinforces the benefits of getting vaccinated

This week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new data showing how much more negatively those who weren’t vaccinated were affected by the fourth surge in cases that began in late June. In every age group, those who hadn’t been vaccinated were much more likely to test positive for the virus. In older age groups, where the virus has consistently proved to be more deadly, those who were unvaccinated were much more likely to die.

Overall, the CDC reports that, in August, the unvaccinated were six times more likely to test positive for the virus than the vaccinated and 11 times as likely to die. If we look at this metric by age, it shifts. Within the youngest age group, the unvaccinated were 10 times as likely to contract the virus that month. Within the oldest group, the effects were more modest: they were three times as likely. There were (happily) too few deaths among those under age 30 to be instructive about the effects of the vaccine, but among the oldest people included in the CDC data, the vaccinated were five times less likely to die of the virus. Among those aged 30 to 49, the unvaccinated were 39 times more likely to die.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... accinated/

The article presents some interesting graphs on incident rates (both cases and deaths) comparing vaccinated versus unvaccinated, broken down by age group.

[Volkonski]

[RTH10260]

similar news item in the Swiss press today: hospitals are essentially no longer reporting any deaths of vaccinated patients.
(w/o link)

[Suranis]

70% of people in hospital with Covid in Ireland right now are unvaccinated. 90% of the irish adult pop is vaccinated.

[neonzx]

It's almost like listening to science works. Amazing.

[Volkonski]

[tek]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/10/21/ ... rspreader/

New study reveals why Provincetown did not become a COVID super-spreader event

“The reason it didn’t is that the community and public health officials responded decisively and leveraged the tools we know work: masking, quarantine, and testing to bring this under control,” he said.

The team of researchers, led by scientists at the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, concluded that Cape Cod’s high vaccination rate and quick public health measures in Massachusetts likely prevented the outbreak from erupting into many more infections.

[Lani]

That's like Kauai. For a year, our island was the safest place in the US.

Unfortunately, since then we haven't had a great vaccination response and people have become tired and sloppy. Sure, don't wear a mask outside, but don't cluster together while outside. The numbers went up dramatically - far higher than in 2020. A couple of weeks ago it dropped to just a handful of new cases. So the usual happened - people became even more sloppy. This week we're back to double digit new cases, and 4 out 9 ICU rooms are taken.

Tonight I searched for how long this pandemic is expected to last. My personal guess is 3 years. Answer - nobody knows. Some guess the numbers will rise during the winter, and then shrink in 2022. Most think a lot depends on the vaccination rate worldwide. Until that occurs, variants will continue to appear. IIRC the 1918 pandemic eased up in the 3rd year. However, it is still with us as seasonal flu variants.

[p0rtia]

https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2 ... Qgr1Xgd4ak

Excess Deaths in 2020
October 21, 2021 Sociology Politics R Visualization
Prompted by a guest visit to Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel’s Advanced Data Visualization class here at Duke, I’ve updated my US and state excess death graphs. Earlier posts (like this one from February) will update as well.

I am interested in all-cause mortality in the United States for 2020. I look at each jurisdiction, ordered by how far off its 2015-2019 average it was in 2020.

Excess Deaths 2020.png (438.32 KiB) Viewed 1884 times

This is 2020, as stated. I'm sure I'm not alone in anticipating that 2021 will be equally information.

[AndyinPA]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -passes-5m

The global death toll from Covid-19 has passed 5 million, 19 months after the pandemic was first declared, according to figures released by Johns Hopkins University. Some experts, including those from the World Health Organization, believe the true toll may be two to three times higher than official figures suggest.

The number of deaths from Covid-19 far outstrip that of other viral epidemics in the 21st century and most from the 20th century, with the notable exception of the Spanish flu. The US, Brazil, India, Mexico and the UK together account for more than half of all deaths worldwide.

In the last 28 days, Johns Hopkins University has logged 197,116 deaths and 11.7 million new cases around the world.



In the last month, the US, UK, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine have recorded the most new cases, while 581m doses of vaccine have been administered worldwide. The US has the largest death toll, at 745,836, followed by India (458,437). Russia’s official death toll stands at 235,318, although independent analysis of excess deaths in Russia by the Moscow Times suggests the true figure could be up to three times higher.

[Foggy]

We're number one.

[Lani]

Yesterday the US reached 808,608 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/