Fogbow

Posted: **Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:07 pm**

Thanks!

Posted: **Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:56 am**

It's been assumed that Russia is lying about its COVID deaths. Now there's this:

At least 300,000 more people died in Russia last year than were reported in official statistics.

Russia’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649, a number that supports President Vladimir Putin’s contention that the country has managed the virus better than most. But a Times analysis shows that deaths in Russia last year were 28 percent higher than normal — an increase in mortality greater than in the U.S. and most countries in Europe.

No link because it's from the NYT Weekend Briefing email. There is probably more info on the NYT website.

Posted: **Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:17 am**

Now do Florida.

That said, I've followed this particular number as much as possible over the past six months, and US nation-wide, deaths-above-average of any cause are up something greater than 10 percent and less than 20 percent above COVID deaths reported. I believe that this have no doubt that most of this higher number is COVID related, but largely due to confusion and caution under he crunch of an effing pandemic.

Posted: **Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:46 am**

I started tracking the above average death rates in March 2020 and continued for awhile. The unexpected deaths began rising in December 2019 - before COVID officially became a world problem. The rate continued to be high, but I've got to find the link I used to see what's happening now.

I remember reading about, and probably posted, that some places exhumed bodies of people who had COVID symptoms, but before we knew what they were. IIRC, California found out that a person had died from COVID in December 2019. Italy also lost lives due to COVID before it was even on the radar. No doubt that occurred in many countries.

[Caveat - I'm nerdy. If something bothers me, I look for data. It's very calming.]

Posted: **Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:51 am**

I'm with you. I like numbers served hot or cold, but in COVID days, I've checked every damn number the press and politicians have said against the raw data (and noted when the raw data is ambiguous).

I got into a lovely twitter back-and-forth with someone claiming Florida's great COVID response by pointing out that if you exclude the period of the initial surge (March through May) when the country was caught with its pants down and hadn't figured out how to keep people alive, Florida's infection rate and death rate is in the top ranking of disaster. But sure, 35,000 (probably 40,000, according to the latest) dead people is just great.

Posted: **Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:55 am**

Posted: **Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:03 pm**

I doubt many people have taken Russia's numbers as accurate.

Posted: **Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:06 am**

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/202 ... /100050812

Rwanda stands out internationally, including amongst other African nations, as a remarkable COVID success story. It has 314 deaths at last count.VID-19 success story for Rwanda is a wake-up call for wealthy West

Posted: **Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:19 am**

Dave from down under wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:06 am https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/202 ... /100050812

Rwanda stands out internationally, including amongst other African nations, as a remarkable COVID success story. It has 314 deaths at last count.VID-19 success story for Rwanda is a wake-up call for wealthy West

Yes, I had heard that story some time ago too.

Because Rwanda had experience handling Ebola outbreaks, they had a population that already understood what was necessary.

Great job.

I think some of the other African nations could have been in the same position but the political will wasn't/isn't there, so they are struggling.

Posted: **Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:49 pm**

Bad news from the north.

Reuters Health
@Reuters_Health
Doctors in the Canadian province of Ontario may soon have to decide who can and cannot receive treatment in intensive care as the number of coronavirus infections sets records and patients are packed into hospitals still stretched from a December wave.

Posted: **Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:37 am**

Seems like the things that were happening a year ago are back.

France suspends all flights to and from Brazil due to COVID variant

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ce=twitter

France will suspend all flights to and from Brazil in a bid to prevent the spread of the coronavirus variant first detected there, French Prime Minister Jean Castex said in parliament.

“We take note that the situation is getting worse and we have decided to suspend all flights between France and Brazil until further notice,” Castex said.

Several leading French doctors have been calling on the government for days to stop all air traffic with Brazil.

A month ago, Health Minister Olivier Veran said that around 6% of COVID-19 cases in France were from the more contagious variants first found in Brazil and South Africa.

Posted: **Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:50 pm**

After more than a year, the first travel bubble flight from Australia to New Zealand reunites families.

Ben McKay @benmackey
Just met a seven-year-old who is going to see her Mum for the first time in 15 months. I’m not really handling this well!!
Loudly crying face Loudly crying face

: Screenshot_2021-04-18 BMK.png (468.92 KiB) Viewed 4120 times

shaimaa khalil BBC
@Shaimaakhalil
·
55m
Some really moving and heartwarming scenes at #Auckland airport. So many hugs. So many happy tears. So many emotions.

Some have been waiting for over a year. Some longer. The #transtasmanbubble is reuniting families. #NewZealand #Australia

Posted: **Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:36 am**

Volkonski wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:49 pm Bad news from the north.

Reuters Health
@Reuters_Health
Doctors in the Canadian province of Ontario may soon have to decide who can and cannot receive treatment in intensive care as the number of coronavirus infections sets records and patients are packed into hospitals still stretched from a December wave.

We were already in a lockdown/stay at home situation. As of 12:01 a.m. Saturday, they’ve made even more restrictions. The province gave police the authority to stop anyone outside their homes and fine them unless they could prove it was essential. The police forces have refused to do the stops.

Premier Ford is asking for doctors/nurses from other provinces to help out, but the other provinces have their own shortages. They are trying to set up field hospitals in parking lots to deal with the overflow.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:47 am**

The travel bubble between Aussieland and Kiwiland may be ready to burst already.

An Auckland airport worker has tested positive for Covid-19. AND HE HAD BEEN FULLY VACCINATED (Phizer)

They are not panicking... yet.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:56 pm**

keith wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:47 am The travel bubble between Aussieland and Kiwiland may be ready to burst already.

An Auckland airport worker has tested positive for Covid-19. AND HE HAD BEEN FULLY VACCINATED (Phizer)

They are not panicking... yet.

Sadly, the vaccines aren't 100% effective.

This is going to be in the world for a while.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:44 pm**

Volkonski wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:56 pm
keith wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:47 am The travel bubble between Aussieland and Kiwiland may be ready to burst already.

An Auckland airport worker has tested positive for Covid-19. AND HE HAD BEEN FULLY VACCINATED (Phizer)

They are not panicking... yet.
Sadly, the vaccines aren't 100% effective. This is going to be in the world for a while.

True, the vaccines are only ~99.9 percent effective. True, COVID19 is going to devastate our planet for a long time--but not because the vaccines aren't 100 percent effective.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:46 pm**

p0rtia wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:44 pm
Volkonski wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:56 pm
keith wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:47 am The travel bubble between Aussieland and Kiwiland may be ready to burst already.

An Auckland airport worker has tested positive for Covid-19. AND HE HAD BEEN FULLY VACCINATED (Phizer)

They are not panicking... yet.
Sadly, the vaccines aren't 100% effective. This is going to be in the world for a while.
True, the vaccines are only ~99.9 percent effective. True, COVID19 is going to devastate our planet for a long time--but not because the vaccines aren't 100 percent effective.

99.9 is quite a bit on the high side. The AZ trials came out around 90% and every one was extatic - it was much higher than most new vaccines. The J&J came around 70% IIRC and that is still really good.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:00 pm**

All of the current covid-19 vaccines in use in Australia, US, and most of Europe are near 100% for preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:36 pm**

Lani wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:00 pm All of the current covid-19 vaccines in use in Australia, US, and most of Europe are near 100% for preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death.

That was a primary motivation for me. I may be doomed to get it but if the symptoms are more severe cold/flu, with no hospitalization or long COVID-19, I can live with that. Literally. Also, I'd rather not give it to anyone.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:27 pm**

keith wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:46 pm
p0rtia wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:44 pm
Volkonski wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:56 pm

Sadly, the vaccines aren't 100% effective. This is going to be in the world for a while.
True, the vaccines are only ~99.9 percent effective. True, COVID19 is going to devastate our planet for a long time--but not because the vaccines aren't 100 percent effective.
99.9 is quite a bit on the high side. The AZ trials came out around 90% and every one was extatic - it was much higher than most new vaccines. The J&J came around 70% IIRC and that is still really good.

As Lani implies, I was talking about the latest data, which is based on real-life results over the past few months, not the trials. It is breathtakingly good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/cdc-say ... icans.html

U.S. health officials have confirmed fewer than 6,000 cases of Covid-19 in fully vaccinated Americans, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said.
That represents just 0.007% of the 84 million Americans with full protection against the virus.
The CDC chief acknowledged that the number could be an underestimate.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:31 pm**

Out of the 6,000 or so breakthrough infections, 396 people were hospitalized and 74 people died, according to CDC data released last week.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:32 pm**

Lani wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:00 pm All of the current covid-19 vaccines in use in Australia, US, and most of Europe are near 100% for preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death.

(I've tried 3 times to get this post done - I keep hitting the back button on the wrong tab

)

That is true: all are NEAR perfect preventing SERIOUS disease and death.

However NONE are above 95% at preventing infection altogether - you can still catch it but you are extremely unlikely to die from it.

Further reading:
Comparing the COVID-19 Vaccines: How Are They Different?
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary

The statistics of efficacy explainer:
What Does 95% Effective Mean? Teaching the Math of Vaccine Efficacy

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:47 pm**

pipistrelle wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:36 pm
Lani wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:00 pm All of the current covid-19 vaccines in use in Australia, US, and most of Europe are near 100% for preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death.
That was a primary motivation for me. I may be doomed to get it but if the symptoms are more severe cold/flu, with no hospitalization or long COVID-19, I can live with that. Literally. Also, I'd rather not give it to anyone.

100% agree.

However, we still don't know much about whether or not the vaccinations prevent us from transmitting an infection. Since vaccinated people can still be infected, we can probably still pass it on.

Can you still transmit Covid-19 after vaccination?

"Effective" or "sterilising" immunity

There are two main types of immunity you can achieve with vaccines. One is so-called "effective" immunity, which can prevent a pathogen from causing serious disease, but can't stop it from entering the body or making more copies of itself. The other is "sterilising immunity", which can thwart infections entirely, and even prevent asymptomatic cases. The latter is the aspiration of all vaccine research, but surprisingly rarely achieved.
...
What type of immunity do the Covid-19 vaccines provide?

"In a nutshell we don't know, because they’re too new," says Neal.

So far, the available Covid-19 vaccines have not been judged primarily on their ability to prevent transmission – though this is now being evaluated as a secondary endpoint for many of them. Instead, their efficacy was assessed by whether they could prevent symptoms from developing. "This means that we set our targets kind of pragmatically," says Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.

So washing our hands and not sneezing in peoples faces would still seem to be useful habits to maintain.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:00 pm**

Yes, the CDC has been saying that the vax doesn't stop getting the virus, but it is far, far less likely. There is a question about whether people who are vaccinated and acquire the virus are less likely to be infectious to others if they have minor or no symptoms. Now that so many have been vaccination, real life figures are emerging.

Posted: **Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:13 pm**

pipistrelle wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:36 pm
Lani wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:00 pm All of the current covid-19 vaccines in use in Australia, US, and most of Europe are near 100% for preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death.
That was a primary motivation for me. I may be doomed to get it but if the symptoms are more severe cold/flu, with no hospitalization or long COVID-19, I can live with that. Literally. Also, I'd rather not give it to anyone.

Per the CDC:

A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ansmission.

Fogbow

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