A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

[Dave from down under]

Fascist Terrorists in uniforms…

[RTH10260]

What happens if a US presidential candidate dies?
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the two oldest candidates in US history. If either needs to be replaced, what next?

Lauren Gambino
Sun 5 May 2024 18.00 CEST

Americans are bracing for a rare presidential rematch between the two oldest candidates in US history: the 81-year-old president Joe Biden and the 77-year-old former president Donald Trump.

Concerns about their age, mental fitness and the possibility that Trump could be convicted of a felony and sentenced to jail time have raised questions about what would happen in the extraordinary event one of them dies, becomes incapacitated or abruptly withdraws.

If Biden, as the sitting president, were suddenly unable to serve, either through incapacity or death, the vice-president, Kamala Harris, would immediately assume the powers of the presidency under the 25th amendment. But replacing Biden or Trump as their party’s presumptive nominees for president – a prospect that is entirely hypothetical – is more complicated. In the event of an unforeseen vacancy, party rules, state and federal election laws and the US constitution would guide what would undoubtedly be a messy process.

What happens if Biden or Trump needs to be replaced?

The answer, experts say, depends largely on when the vacancy arises. Is it after the party’s nominating convention? Before election day? What if the winning candidate is no longer able to take the oath of office? The timing matters.

If the unexpected occurs, the job of replacing the presidential candidate would fall to “10,000 people who no one has ever heard of”, according to Elaine Kamarck, a member of the Democratic National Committee rules committee and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Collectively they represent convention delegates, members of the parties’ national committees, the 535 members of the electoral college and the 435 members of the House of Representatives.

Each plays a relevant role at different stages of the election process.

What if it happens before a party’s convention?

Biden and Trump have secured enough delegates to be their parties’ nominee in mid-March, but neither will be formally selected until the conventions this summer. The Republican national convention will take place in Milwaukee in mid-July. The Democratic convention will take place a month later in Chicago.

Before then, state parties will continue to hold primaries, caucuses and conventions, electing delegates to send to conventions.

If Biden or Trump were to withdraw or die before being formally nominated, their delegates would arrive at the convention in Milwaukee or Chicago largely uncommitted. A replacement nominee would then likely be chosen at the convention in a messy floor fight. Imagine frantic horse-trading, back-room dealing and public speech-making.

Democrats also have a system of “superdelegates” – unpledged senior party officials and elected leaders whose support is limited on the first ballot but who could play a decisive role in subsequent rounds.



more at the link for Rikker https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... biden-dies

[AndyinPA]

Thanks for posting. I've wondered about that.

[p0rtia]

Just listened to Lara fuckhead fascisting that votes had to be counted on the day of the election. Not counted by 11:59, never counted.

Not gonna go into the many ways that is...stupid-wrong...but....

It got me wondering: maybe the plan is to just destroy the election from the front end; call on the armed maggoteers to cry foul before the election. Not as an excuse for a possible loss, but as a way to break the presidential election altogether.

Though since fuckhead is not in in the seat of power, not sure how that would work for him.

[AndyinPA]

He has the House. Don't know how bad that could be, but certainly not hesitant to cause trouble.

[p0rtia]

He has the House. Don't know how bad that could be, but certainly not hesitant to cause trouble.

Good point. Though I think I heard that it will be the new house that does the voting--of course, if block the new congressfolk....

[Suranis]

How the hell can anyone say he has the house. The Republicans cant get themselves together to elect a speaker, let alone a deeply unpopular Guy who cant even crack 85% in Republican primaries where he has no opposition. (Biden is getting 94%)

[Frater I*I]

How the hell can anyone say he has the house. The Republicans cant get themselves together to elect a speaker, let alone a deeply unpopular Guy who cant even crack 85% in Republican primaries where he has no opposition. (Biden is getting 94%)

Because you fail to see the basic fundamental of the R party...power above all else. Some of the primary voters don't like Zee Orange Furher because he is too incompetent to give them the fascist utopia they want, but he can get them closer...and that's what counts, more Reich wingers on SCOTUS, more partisan hacks in the lower courts who will uphold the gerrymandering and vote suppression laws in the southeast and midwest. If the R's hold the House after Nov and gain control of the Senate they will throw out the vote of D states, and either give Zee Orange Furher the major, or throw it to the House where they will put him back in power, power above all.

The Reich Wing in this country don't car about freedom other than their to do as they wish, other must suffer, democracy, it was a nice experiment but the wrong type of people were allowed to participate, so that needs to be corrected.

And I have read The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, and I do see a lot of the same situations happening here, I know, I live amongst them.

[RTH10260]

How the right is weaponizing pro-Palestinian campus protests in the US
Republicans are using a narrative of chaos and ‘philosophical divisions on Israel’ among Democrats to sink Biden’s campaign

Robert Tait in Washington
Mon 13 May 2024 13.00 CEST

Republicans have identified recent college protests against Israel’s war in Gaza as the core of an election campaign narrative of chaos that they hope can be used to sink Joe Biden’s presidency.

The approach was bluntly crystallised by Tom Cotton, the Republican senator from Arkansas, in a recent television interview when he mocked the encampments that have sprung up in recent weeks as “little Gazas” and lambasted the president for a perceived failure to unequivocally denounce instances of antisemitism.

“The Democrats have deep philosophical divisions on Israel,” Cotton told ABC’s This Week programme. “That’s why you see all those little Gazas out there on campuses where you see people chanting vile antisemitic slogans … For two weeks, Joe Biden refused to come out and denounce it. That is the 2024 election.”

In fact, Biden did condemn antisemitism in a White House statement criticising the protests on 1 May, but also spoke out against Islamophobia and other forms of prejudice.

Cotton’s comments followed weeks of turbulence on university campuses across the US that have seen riot police forcibly dismantle pro-Palestinian encampments in widely televised scenes reminiscent of the anti-Vietnam war demonstrations of the 1960s.

His labelling of the encampments as “little Gazas” was denounced as dehumanising by some who lauded the protesters for drawing attention to the death toll of Israel’s continuing military offensive in Gaza. While relatively few Americans identify the war in Gaza as a vote-influencer, Republicans are seeking to capitalise on the vocal minority who are expressing discontent over it.

The conservative activist Christopher Rufo spelt out the approach in a recent article on Substack.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... r-protests

[bob]

538 (ABC): Biden's path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest:

He's polling just short of Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

* * *

In 2020, Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points, but he won Wisconsin — the state that tipped him over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win — by only 0.6 points (representing a 3.9-point Electoral College bias toward Trump). And in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points, but she lost the tipping-point state, again Wisconsin, by 0.8 points — a 2.9-point Electoral College bias.

Based on those numbers, you might assume that Trump's national polling lead means Biden is a significant underdog to win the Electoral College. But according to our state-level polling averages, that's not necessarily true. While he's trailing in the most competitive states, Biden remains within striking distance of Trump in states with just enough electoral votes to hand him the presidency.

Seven states are generally considered to be competitive this fall, and when you look at our polling averages of each of them, six of them fall into two clean categories: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Biden trails Trump by less than 2 points; and Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, where Trump leads by a more comfortable 6- or 7-point margin. (Arizona, at Trump+3.5, is somewhere in the middle.)

Obviously, if those turn out to be the final margins in November, Trump would win every swing state and the presidency. But the numbers also point to a narrow but feasible path for Biden to win. If he carries Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus every other state and district* that he won by at least 6 points in 2020, he would finish with exactly 270 electoral votes:**

* * *

And there's one further wrinkle: Getting to 270 electoral votes via Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would also require Biden to win the electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which Biden won by only 6 points in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections. Polls of Nebraska's 2nd District are scarce, but the one we do have suggests that Trump is leading there right now.

And if Trump wins Nebraska's 2nd while Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Electoral College would be tied 269-269. Under the Constitution, that would throw the election to the House of Representatives, where each state's delegation (not each representative) would get one vote, with 26 out of 50 votes needed to elect the president. Trump would very likely win under such a scenario because Republicans will probably control a majority of congressional delegations after the election, even if they don't have an overall House majority.

* * *

*Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes by congressional district — which, as I'll get to, could prove important this year.

**That means Pennsylvania, where Trump leads the polls by an average of 1.7 points, is — for now — positioned as the tipping-point state in the election. With Trump currently leading in national polls by a similar 1.0-point margin, that means polls suggest that the pro-Republican bias in the Electoral College has shrunk significantly from 2016 and 2020. (Of course, this could change.)

[Suranis]

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the- ... ompetitive

The 2024 Election is Close and Competitive - Neither Candidate Is Winning, But I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them

Simon Rosenberg
May 16

Happy Thursday all. Got a few things for you today:

The 2024 Election Is Close and Competitive - Neither Candidate Is Winning, Neither Is Where They Want To Be - In doing a lot of media these last few days I’ve been struck by how frequently commentators say “Trump is winning.” Is a baseball team “winning” when up 3-2 in the third inning of a game, or are they “leading”? What happens if it is 2-2 in the third inning? Media commentators need to course correct here for “Trump is winning” is adopting in my view an inaccurate, Trumpian spin on the current moment.

First of all I don’t think a fair look at the data right now allows one to even say that “Trump is leading.” Yesterday I wrote about how a majority of recent independent national polls have Biden leading; recent state polls have Biden ahead in AZ, MI, WI, and even in the terrible NYT polls this week Trump is not leading in the battleground states needed to get to 270 among likely voters; the polls that have gone into the state based polling averages have been full of right leaning polls and almost all are of registered voters where Trump does better. The notion that six months out Trump having single point leads in the polling averages in MI, PA, WI - when he has to win all three or he loses the election - translates into him “winning” is ridiculous, and folks need to stop saying it.

Since my post yesterday we’ve gotten three new national polls:

Reuters/Ipsos - Biden +3 with likely voters

Economist/YouGov - 43-44, Trump +1

Fox News - Trump 49, Biden 48 - Biden gains 4 points since last poll

Biden gains 4 in Fox, leads by 3 with likelies in Reuters/Ipsos. Adding these 3 to the 12 recent national polls I wrote about yesterday we find that Biden leads in 8 of these 15 polls, 4 are tied and Trump leads in 3 - all by one point. Senate and House polling remains very encouraging for Democrats, and we have our largest lead in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker in many months, having gained almost 4 points there this year. There is no way to look at this data and argue that Trump is winning or even leads now.

I went on CNN to talk about all this earlier today. Note that that the Trump spokesperson evokes “Trump always outperforms polls” as the fairy dust which makes Trump favored when we know that this year, in this election, Trump 2024 has been UNDERPERFORMING public polls, not overperforming. His argument is absurd and silly. Here’s the clip:

https://substack.com/redirect/5ecc82af- ... JYSA_bLgx0

I don’t think Joe Biden’s team took this bold and confident step to get two debates on the books because they are desperate or in trouble. They did it because the election is close right now and they want to win. Ensuring that Donald Trump actually shows up at two debates, in a far more mature and adult format, in my view makes it more likely we win because we need voters to see Trump 2024 with their own eyes - a candidate who is far more extreme and dangerous; whose performance is far more erratic, wild, impulsive and disturbing; who has these six new things that many people don’t yet know about him that will be devastating once they become widely understood (rapist, fraudster/serial criminal, betrayer of the country, unprecedented corruption, ender of Roe/abortion extremism).

We also need voters to see Joe Biden for when in big moments - State of the Union, White House Correspondents Dinner - he has done a great job; and we know from polling that when voters are informed about his Presidency, and what he has done, his numbers improve. He has a very strong case to make for his Presidency, and he will be able to make it to all in June now, and not have to wait to the August Convention or fall debates.

It has been my take for many many months now that while the election was close today, Biden would gain as voters checked in and became more informed about their choices - which has happened. Biden and the Democrats have gained a few points over the past few months. Having a debate in June will accelerate the process of people checking in, and becoming informed, something that many of us believe will continue to benefit the President. An informed electorate is good for democracy, and in this election, is also very good for Joe Biden.

[Volkonski]

Trump demands drug test for Biden ahead of first debate

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ad-debate/

Former President Trump said he wants President Biden to be drug-tested before their first debate.

“I’m gonna demand a drug test too, by the way,” Trump said at the Minnesota Republican Party’s Lincoln Reagan Dinner Friday. “I am, no I really am. I don’t want him coming in like the State of the Union, he was high as a kite.”

Trump has previously stated in a radio interview that Biden was “all jacked up” at the beginning of his State of the Union address, as well as “higher than a kite.”

The former president and Biden rapidly agreed to two presidential debates in June and September on CNN and ABC on Wednesday. Biden and Trump now have just a little over a month before they participate in their first debate.

“They gotta be fair, I think they gotta be fair, and if they’re not, you know, you have to deal with it. Right? You have to deal with it,” Trump said at the dinner.

Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) suggested Thursday that Biden “must’ve been jacked up” when he gave the State of the Union address in March.

[Slim Cognito]

And if Biden insists trump take the same test? Sounds like he's setting up an excuse to bail on the debate.

[pipistrelle]

Administered by Ronny.

[Suranis]

And if Biden insists trump take the same test? Sounds like he's setting up an excuse to bail on the debate.

Yep, and hus usual "get people to talk about me by saying outrageous shit" Crap.

I'm sure he will be inventing other stuff for Biden to do in the next month before Turnip will give his permission for the debate to happen. Biden should just say "I'll be there, I don't care if he turns up or not." when reporters badger him about Turnips latest crap.