Fogbow

Lets guess at vote totals too!

Before the end of January, but it will fail. Who are they going to offer instead?

Foggy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:51 am Before the end of January, but it will fail. Who are they going to offer instead?

Gym Jordan!

Or whoever.

Of course a lot depends on what the Rules end up being--can Dems demand a vote to recall? If so, can they pick a day when 20 Pubs are out grifting? Hey, I'm in it for the chaos.

I voted for before Christmas 2023 but it will fail. Someone will call for it, but they won’t get enough support.

That’s assuming that provision stays in the Rules package.

Before the end of January

It will fail by one vote!

Does a motion to vacate take precedence over other business?

Asking for a friend. >.> <.<

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:26 am Does a motion to vacate take precedence over other business?

I recall under a previous rules package it did.

Assumedly, the holdouts negotiated for something similar, but we won't know what this session's rules are until they vote on them.

I'm sure that there will be at least one motion to vacate this year. I think such votes will fail.

If Gaetz or Bobo moves to vacate the chair, it will fail. McCarthy had over 200 votes from the beginning, so there is no way that a majority of R's will vote to remove him.

The Democrats could vote to remove him, resulting in a majority and his expulsion. I don't think that they will. They will hold their noses and vote to keep him. First of all, who would the R's replace him with that might be more palatable to the D's? Secondly, and IMHO, more importantly, it would throw the House back into the chaos that just ended. But this time, it would clearly be the D's fault.

By the end of this year, we will be deep in the 2024 election cycle. If the D's removed the Republican speaker and caused the House to stop functioning, the R's would use it as an election talking point, even though it would have been an R who initiated it.

Maybenaut wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:03 am I voted for before Christmas 2023 but it will fail. Someone will call for it, but they won’t get enough support.

That’s assuming that provision stays in the Rules package.

Exactly what I voted for, Maybenaut. Might be before June 30 if we hit the debt ceiling before then; that’s what I think the trigger event will be for the “burn it down” caucus. Until then, I think they’ll get everything their way so they won’t need to do it.

Of course, I’m making the possibly foolish assumption that McCarthy and most of the Republicans won’t actually want the US to default on our debt.

I think you’re right about McCarthy but I wouldn’t take that bet about all of them.

Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 12:50 pm I think you’re right about McCarthy but I wouldn’t take that bet about all of them.

Yeah. Most R's will hold their noses and vote to increase the debt ceiling, but the crazies, like Gaetz and Bobo, will find a way to block legislation to do so. They either don't realize what the consequences would be or, more likely, they simply don't care, as long as they get media coverage and their voters lap it up.

Speaket vacation votes: would the Democrats' best tactic be to abstain (or some other version of not being involved), in effect saying "you Republicans made this problem, you decide what you want to do about the current speaker." Then, if the speaker is removed, the Democrats can again offer a sane candidate.

I guess to the Magats the Democrats caused the recent problems by not voting for McCarthy!

Sam the Centipede wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:31 pm Speaket vacation votes: would the Democrats' best tactic be to abstain (or some other version of not being involved), in effect saying "you Republicans made this problem, you decide what you want to do about the current speaker." Then, if the speaker is removed, the Democrats can again offer a sane candidate.

No, then would be the time for the Democrats to be seen as trying to solve the problem. Hakeem Jeffries can say "look, we have 212 votes over here, we'll give to any functional human being who can six votes out of 218 from their own party. This really isn't that hard, guys. This isn't a one-party government."

I said before June, fail. I give them about six months before tempers really, really, really flare. But then, maybe they will want to show McCarthy pretty quickly who's in charge.

All the investigations, it looks like we're going into another McCarthy era.

Agree with June Bug and voted with Andy - Before June 30 2023 - Fail. Raising the debt ceiling will probably be the catalyst since the Omnibus funded the government through the fiscal year (October). There isn't much more the MAGA GOP House can/will do except "messaging" bills like Pelosi did from 2018-2020. The MAGA base, expecting violent and sweeping changes, is going to be MORE ANGRY when their dreams of anarchy are shattered. And on the debt ceiling, enough Republicans will join Democrats in making it happen. Destroying the US' credit would be an instant LOSE in 2024. Just the threat last time cost Americans over $1 billion when the US' credit rating was downgraded.

The morons in the House might not care, but the real billionaires will.