Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

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Addie
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Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#1

Post by Addie »

Texas Tribune
After strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg turns to Texas

Pete Buttigieg is quickly ramping up campaign activity in Texas after strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, sending two dozen staffers to the Super Tuesday state.

The 24 staffers start Monday and will help volunteers already on the ground, his campaign told The Texas Tribune. The Texas ramp-up is part of a broader expansion across the delegate-rich states that vote March 3.

“We are building the campaign that will not only win this nomination but will defeat Donald Trump in November,” said Samantha Steelman, the campaign’s organizing director for Super Tuesday states.

Sara Goldstein, the former regional organizing director in Iowa for the Buttigieg campaign, will now lead its efforts in Texas. The campaign will welcome its latest staffers to the state over the weekend with events in San Antonio, Austin, Dallas and Houston.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#2

Post by Addie »

FiveThirtyEight: Who’s ahead in Texas?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Sanders 21.7%
Biden 18.5%
Bloomberg 17.6%
Warren 9.8%
Buttigieg 9.6%
Klobuchar 4.2%
Steyer 2.3%
Gabbard 1.3%
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#3

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Statesman: Not his first rodeo: Bernie the man to beat in Texas

MESQUITE — This was certainly not Bernie Sanders’ first rodeo as a polemicist whipping a mostly young crowd of some 5,000 into a frenzy with his call for a democratic socialist revolution in America via the ballot box.

But his rally Friday night at the Mesquite Rodeo in suburban Dallas might have been the first in a venue usually devoted to steer wrestling, calf roping and bull riding.

"I have never been to a rodeo in my life, but I do work in Washington, D.C., and I do hear a lot of bullshit," declared the Vermont senator with his unmistakable Brooklyn accent and brusque cadence.
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TexasFilly
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#4

Post by TexasFilly »

Again, I ask, who is picking up the phone to talk to a pollster? Nobody ever answers this.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#5

Post by ZekeB »

TexasFilly wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:14 pm
Again, I ask, who is picking up the phone to talk to a pollster? Nobody ever answers this.
Since a good number of people who have cell phones have given up their landlines, how many cell phone users are they calling?
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#6

Post by TexasFilly »

ZekeB wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:27 pm
TexasFilly wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:14 pm
Again, I ask, who is picking up the phone to talk to a pollster? Nobody ever answers this.
Since a good number of people who have cell phones have given up their landlines, how many cell phone users are they calling?
Honey, I was getting so many spam calls on my cell that if you ain't in my contacts, I don't pick up. Now CallProtect fixes it so it doesn't even ring. Of course if I'm waiting for a service provider or doctor's office, I'll adjust those settings, but my husband doesn't answer his cell to callers not in his contacts either.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#7

Post by ZekeB »

TexasFilly wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:47 pm
ZekeB wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:27 pm
TexasFilly wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:14 pm
Again, I ask, who is picking up the phone to talk to a pollster? Nobody ever answers this.
Since a good number of people who have cell phones have given up their landlines, how many cell phone users are they calling?
Honey, I was getting so many spam calls on my cell that if you ain't in my contacts, I don't pick up. Now CallProtect fixes it so it doesn't even ring. Of course if I'm waiting for a service provider or doctor's office, I'll adjust those settings, but my husband doesn't answer his cell to callers not in his contacts either.
Ditto here. I use Verizon's Call Filter. My phone will ring if someone with a legitimate number calls me. If I don't answer it's because you aren't in my contacts list and your number is otherwise unfamiliar to me. If you really want to talk to me you need to leave a message. None of the unknowns have left a message so far.

In regard to pollster calls, my phone number is not published anywhere that I know of. If they want a list of registered Democrats from my election commissioner, I'm sure she will provide such. My name and address may be listed in that info, but my phone number isn't. Bottom line: What kind of a sample are these pollsters using for their information?
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#8

Post by Suranis »

Different country, but I have been polled a few times on my cellphone.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#9

Post by Whatever4 »

TexasFilly wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:14 pm
Again, I ask, who is picking up the phone to talk to a pollster? Nobody ever answers this.
:flirty:

I do. I get about 1 a month on my cell. (We have a landline that came with the cable package, but I don’t even know the #. W2 has it forwarded to his cell.)

I got a text poll last weekend. That was new.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#10

Post by Orlylicious »

The methodology is laid out here: https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resourc ... lling.aspx

It's interesting. I imagine each polling company has a methodology page but this is the standard... it's been changing to a probability sample.

Nonresponse to polls is a big factor affecting the accuracy of poll results. In a probability sample, the respondents can be thought of as “self-selecting” into the sample. To the extent that the respondents and non-respondents differ systematically on the survey variables—for example, which candidate they support in an upcoming election--nonresponse can bias the poll results, and that is true even if the initial sample was a probability sample. In a similar way, the accuracy of non-probability samples, such as opt-in samples, can be affected by self-selection. In both types of sampling, if the people who participate in the poll are different from those who do not, results can be biased because of these differences.

***

Random-Digit Dialing (RDD)
Samples of telephone area codes and exchanges are selected, and then random digits are added to the end to create 10-digit phone numbers. The first step ensures phone numbers are distributed properly by geography. The second step, adding the random numbers, makes sure that even unlisted numbers are included. This has traditionally been the standard practiced by almost all public pollsters. The major advantage of RDD is the coverage of the population: Everyone with a telephone is eligible to be sampled. The major disadvantage is that it is expensive, since many of the landline telephone numbers generated are non-working numbers and cellphone numbers need to be manually dialed by interviewers.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#11

Post by Lani »

I'm getting texts from the Bernie campaign about once a week. Delete, don't read, Next time I'll read to see if it's some kind of poll.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#12

Post by ZekeB »

You can put text senders in an ignore list just as you can with callers. I forget exactly how, but write down the number of the texter, even if it doesn't look like a phone number. Poke around in your text options - the place to put that number is somewhere.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#13

Post by Foggy »

On my Android you can "blacklist" an unwanted text sender. I do that a lot.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#14

Post by TexasFilly »

Lani wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:41 am
I'm getting texts from the Bernie campaign about once a week. Delete, don't read, Next time I'll read to see if it's some kind of poll.
If you've voted in a Democratic Party in the past, they likely have your phone number. The candidates buy those lists. I've gotten texts from even local Democratic campaigns. They are usually from individual volunteers. I've asked them to stop, they apologize and say they will make a notation on their records. So far, so good.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#15

Post by Addie »

NBC5 DFW: Bernie Sanders Campaign Opens 5 Offices in Texas, Including 1 in Dallas

Bernie 2020 is opening five Texas campaign offices in Austin, Dallas, Houston, McAllen, and San Antonio
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

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Post by Addie »

KUT Austin: Sanders' Support Grows In Texas, But Democrats Are Split On Plan To Ditch Private Health Insurance
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#17

Post by Addie »

Bernie Sanders Austin Texas Rally - Feb 23, 2020

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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#18

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

Addie wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:54 pm
Bernie Sanders Austin Texas Rally - Feb 23, 2020

Look at all that student debt out there!

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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#19

Post by TexasFilly »

Wait until all of these people find out that a cancellation of debt is a taxable event.
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#20

Post by Addie »

MySA
Elizabeth Warren to be in San Antonio Thursday for town hall event with Julian Castro

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren announced she will be in San Antonio with former Mayor Julián Castro this Thursday for a special event – her first trip here since launching her campaign a year ago.

The senior senator from Massachusetts is hosting a town hall with Castro, himself a former presidential candidate who endorsed Warren shortly after dropping out of the race in January.

The town hall event will be at 6:30 p.m. at Sunset Station in St. Paul Square, according to Warren campaign officials. Doors open at 4:30 p.m. Admission is first-come, first-served, and the campaign strongly encourages an RSVP.

She has also been endorsed by Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, and on Friday, Judge Lina Hidalgo, the chief executive of Harris County announced her endorsement. Warren has more than 60 staffers and organizers in offices across Texas but chose San Antonio as her state headquarters.
Adding:
Star-Telegram: Democratic presidential primary candidate Mike Bloomberg to hold rally in Fort Worth
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Re: Texas Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#21

Post by Addie »

The Hill
Poll: Biden, Sanders tied in Texas, followed by Warren

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are in a statistical tie among primary voters in Texas, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), according to a poll released Monday from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

The survey found Biden with 22.5 percent support in the Lone Star State and Sanders with 22.1 percent, followed by Warren with 18.3 percent. No other candidate cleared the 15 percent threshold necessary to claim delegates in the state.

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg pulled 13.4 percent in the poll, followed by former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 11.9 percent and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) with 7.2 percent. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) received 3.5 percent support, followed by businessman Tom Steyer with 1.1 percent.

Broken down by ethnicity, the results show Sanders continuing to enjoy a large lead among Latino voters, who also overwhelmingly supported him in the Nevada caucuses. Sanders led with 30.3 percent of Latino voters, followed by Biden with 18.9 percent and Warren with 16.8 percent.

Biden led among African Americans by an even wider margin, with 45.8 percent, compared to 17 percent for Bloomberg and Sanders with 15.1 percent. This is in contrast to South Carolina, the first primary state with a large portion of African American voters, where Biden’s African American support has eroded in recent months with Sanders only a few points behind.

Sanders also leads with women in the state, at 22.1 percent, followed by Warren with 21 percent and Biden with 20.7 percent.
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