Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

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Addie
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Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#1

Post by Addie »

Tampa Bay Times
Not done yet, Joe Biden announces Florida push

The former vice president’s campaign moved quickly Wednesday to announce the launch of several grassroots coalitions in Florida. ...


The voter groups, to be led by some of Biden’s large group of surrogates — many from South Florida — include groups specifically aimed at reaching women, African Americans, Caribbean voters, the gay community, faith leaders, Hispanics and the young.

In Miami, Haitian-American physician Larry Pierre is heading up Biden’s Caribbean voter group. Broward state Rep. Shevrin Jones, the son of West Park pastor and Mayor Eric Jones, is helping lead Biden’s faith-based voter outreach group. Joe Falk, a gay rights activist and prominent Democratic fundraiser from Miami tapped to lead Biden’s LGBTQ coalition, said there are a number of gatherings planned in the roughly five weeks leading to the primary, starting with a Biden campaign presence at the Gay 8 festival this weekend in Little Havana.

Jackie Lee, a senior adviser to the Biden campaign in Florida, said the groups are both a reflection of the state’s diversity and an escalation of campaign events that are already under way.

“We’ve already had a [get-out-the-vote] phone bank. We’re chasing mail ballots. We have a Jewish surrogate call set up for next week,” she said. “This will be active and led by community members, and build upon our work here in the state.”

Biden’s coalition rollout comes as more than 1 million ballots are landing in mailboxes across the state, creating an extended primary election that tends to benefit campaigns with a large, organized presence and the ability to chase votes weeks before Election Day.
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Slim Cognito
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#2

Post by Slim Cognito »

We got our absentee ballots yesterday. Will wait until Thur or Fri after Super Tuesday to fill them out, then hand deliver them to a secure drop box. After how many tens of thousands of absentee ballots were "misplaced" at a Miami-Dade postal facility in 2018, I'm not trusting the mail any more. Although this being a red area of Florida, I'm probably not at as much risk as, say, Orlando.
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Addie
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#3

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The Hill
Poll: Bloomberg overtakes Biden in Florida

Michael Bloomberg is leading the pack of Democratic presidential hopefuls in Florida, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls, a sign that the former New York City mayor has picked up traction in a crucial swing state before most of his rivals have even started to campaign there.

The poll shows Bloomberg with 27.3 percent support in the Sunshine State, up 10 points from a similar poll released late last month. Biden, meanwhile, has seen his support in Florida plummet, falling from more than 41 percent in January to 25.9 percent this month.

Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are jockeying for third place in the state, notching 10.5 percent and 10.4 percent respectively, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar sits in fifth with 8.6 percent support.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and billionaire activist Tom Steyer round out the top seven in the poll with 4.8 percent and 1.3 percent support respectively.

Florida’s Democratic presidential primary is still more than a month away. But the St. Pete poll suggests that Bloomberg’s aggressive spending has allowed him to build early name recognition in the nation’s largest and most volatile general election battleground.
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#4

Post by Addie »

FiveThirtyEight: Who’s ahead in Florida?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Biden 23.9%
Bloomberg 19.0%
Sanders 16.5%
Buttigieg 9.6%
Warren 7.5%
Klobuchar 6.2%
Steyer 1.5%
Gabbard 0.9%
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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Addie
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#5

Post by Addie »

FiveThirtyEight: Election Update: Biden Hasn’t Exactly Collapsed Since New Hampshire ...

Finally, a St. Pete Polls survey of Florida, conducted Feb. 12-13, put Bloomberg at 27 percent, Biden at 26 percent, Buttigieg at 11 percent, Sanders at 10 percent and Klobuchar at 9 percent. However, St. Pete has historically featured unusually high numbers for Bloomberg and fairly low numbers for Sanders, relative to other pollsters. Adjusted for these house effects, our model interprets this poll as saying Biden has 25 percent support, Bloomberg has 21 percent, Sanders has 13 percent, Buttigieg has 10 percent and Klobuchar has 7 percent.

This was still a bad poll for Biden, who lost 15 points since St. Pete’s previous survey in late January, and a good one for Bloomberg, who gained 10 points. But it also wasn’t a great one for Sanders or Buttigieg. It showed virtually no change for Sanders, and Buttigieg ticked up by a middling 5 points. Biden surely would have preferred not to have lost so much ground, but it’s definitely a silver lining for him that the new Democratic front-runner (Sanders) did not surpass him.
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#6

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WTSP
Michael Bloomberg leads Democratic pack in Florida: poll

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The barrage of campaign ads across the Sunshine State might be playing out to the advantage of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

A poll of 3,047 likely Florida Democratic presidential primary voters found if the election were held today, a majority would vote for Bloomberg to be the nominee to square-off against President Donald Trump come November.

Here's the breakdown, conducted by St. Pete Polls:
Michael Bloomberg: 27.3 percent
Joe Biden: 25.9 percent
Undecided: 11.2 percent
Bernie Sanders: 10.4 percent
Pete Buttigieg: 10.5 percent
Amy Klobuchar: 8.6 percent
Elizabeth Warren: 4.8 percent
Tom Steyer: 1.3 percent
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#7

Post by Foggy »

:doh:
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

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neonzx
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#8

Post by neonzx »

Foggy wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:08 pm
:doh:
Truly, he blitzed Florida with TV ads. And remember, Florida has a lot of northeasterner retirees there. The other camps don't have the $$ to blanket Florida, a crucial but post-super Tuesday state.
To which Trump replied, Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.

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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#9

Post by Foggy »

Yeah, he probably hasn't made a personal appearance in Florida. I'd bet that virtually none of his supporters could say what his position is on, oh, gun control, immigration, income distribution, or anything else. He didn't run on his detailed plans for dealing with specific issues, like, say, Liz Warren did.

All he did was blanket the state in Tee Vee advertisements, and ... looky thar!

He bought his way into first place! All it takes is MONEY! MONEY! MONEY!

And, looky thar! The lady who has actually spent a ton of time thinking about America's problems and writing detailed plans for what she would do to fix them?

HA! She's BELOW 5% IN THE POLL. Nobody gives a shit about intelligently dealing with the things that need to be fixed in this great land of ours. The only thing that counts is, HOW MANY COMMERCIALS DID YOU PUT ON THE TEE VEE?

We are so fucked. The country I was born in and loved my whole life is DOOMED.
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Addie
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#10

Post by Addie »

Tampa Bay Times Editorial
Florida Democrats, don’t mail that presidential primary ballot

The race is too fluid and the stakes are too high to vote now for a candidate who may not be viable by the March 17 primary.


More than a million Florida Democrats have been sent their mail ballots for the March 17 presidential primary, but they should let those ballots sit on the hall table or the kitchen counter for a bit. The race for the Democratic nomination is too fluid for Florida Democrats to pick a candidate now who may not be competitive by Election Day. They should not waste their votes, and they should keep their eye on the goal: Backing the candidate who has the best shot at beating President Donald Trump in November.

While Iowa and New Hampshire pride themselves on being the first to vote, those contests have provided little clarity and no clear front-runner. The Iowa caucuses, already a byzantine relic, were such a fiasco that they should never be the first votes in selecting a presidential nominee again. The New Hampshire primary also wasn’t much help, with the top three candidates each finishing with at least 19 percent of the vote but no one breaking 26 percent.

The first two states are hardly reflective of Florida or the nation. They are small, overwhelmingly white and lack any urban area as large as Tampa Bay. In fact, Tampa Bay alone has twice the population of New Hampshire and matches the population of Iowa. More Tampa voters cast ballots in last year’s run-off for mayor than Bernie Sanders received as the top finisher in raw votes in the Iowa caucuses. So Democrats should keep the results of the first two contests in perspective.

Here’s another reason to hold on to that mail ballot: There certainly will be more clarity in the race for the Democratic nomination long before Florida’s March 17 primary. The Nevada caucuses are Feb. 22, followed by the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29. Then comes Super Tuesday on March 3, when Democrats vote in 14 states -- including California, Texas and Massachusetts -- and one-third of all delegates will be awarded. So when the Florida primary comes around two weeks later, the field of viable candidates probably will be counted on one hand with fingers left over.
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#11

Post by Addie »

Cross-posting

Tampa Bay Times
Bloomberg warns Florida Democrats: A vote for Biden helps Bernie Sanders

Florida’s presidential primary is March 17, two weeks after the March 3 Super Tuesday vote when more than 1,300 delegates will be decided.


Michael Bloomberg’s campaign says the 2020 presidential race is essentially down to three candidates — and that voting for any Democrat other than the former New York mayor increases the chances that a self-described democratic socialist will win the nomination.

A top Bloomberg’ campaign official on a Tuesday call with reporters warned that Florida Democrats who vote for former Vice President Joe Biden in the primary will help Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in his quest to win the 2020 delegate race — and that a Sanders primary victory exponentially increases President Donald Trump’s reelection chances.

Florida’s presidential primary is March 17, two weeks after the March 3 Super Tuesday vote when more than 1,300 delegates will be decided, but Bloomberg’s camp is arguing that Democrats with early ballots shouldn’t vote for Biden if their top concern is nominating a candidate who can defeat Trump. Tuesday is the deadline for Florida voters to register for the primary.

“Coming out of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire, which were extremely muddled, it is quite clear to us that we are really down to a race where there are three people left: Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg and Donald Trump,” Bloomberg states director Dan Kanninen said. “Of that bunch, only Mike Bloomberg has the chance to beat Donald Trump in the fall elections.”

The Bloomberg campaign’s assessment of the race in Florida comes two days before the former New York mayor’s first debate appearance amid a hiring spree of campaign staff in the state.
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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#12

Post by Addie »

FiveThirtyEight: Who’s ahead in Florida?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Biden 22.9%
Bloomberg 19.4%
Sanders 18.3%
Buttigieg 9.7%
Warren 7.5%
Klobuchar 6.7%
Steyer 1.7%
Gabbard 0.8%
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#13

Post by Addie »

Orlando Sentinel
New Florida poll: Bloomberg beats Trump one-on-one, Biden, Sanders, Warren in dead heat with president ...

The survey of 725 registered Florida voters from Feb. 10-18 by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, in partnership with First Coast News Channel 12 Jacksonville, has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, was the choice of 50% of respondents over Trump’s 44% in a two-way race, the poll said.

Biden, the former vice president, was in a virtual dead heat with Trump, garnering 49% to the president’s 48%, while U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, tied with Trump at 48% and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren tied Trump with 47%.

Former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar both lose to the president in Florida in head-to-head matchups, with Buttigieg getting 45% to the president’s 49% and Klobuchar getting 44% to Trump’s 48%. ...

The poll was conducted before Wednesday night’s Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas, the first debate to include Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Trump had a 47% approval rating in Florida compared to his 51% disapproval rating, according to the poll.
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#14

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Politico
Bloomberg campaign writes off Biden

TALLAHASSEE — Mike Bloomberg’s campaign said the Democratic presidential race is down to a two-man contest — and Joe Biden isn’t one of the men in the mix.

The former vice president’s fortunes have plummeted so much since his back-to-back losses in Iowa and New Hampshire that only Bloomberg is polling strongly enough to challenge the Democrats’ front-runner, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Bloomberg states director Dan Kanninen said Tuesday.

“Mike is quite clearly in a strong second place in this primary and rising rapidly above the rest of the field, which is either stagnant or declining quickly,’’ Kanninen told reporters on a conference call. “None of the other Democrats beside Mike or Bernie is in a position to amass delegates in a serious way on Super Tuesday.” ...

Florida, once an election firewall for Biden, and its 248 delegates also might be up for grabs in its March 17 primary as state party leaders shift allegiances.

Scott Kosanovich, Bloomberg’s state director for Florida, said the campaign would have up to 200 people on the ground by the primary. The campaign opened several state field offices this weekend, with more to follow. The campaign already is engaged in heavy outreach, texting and calling voters and making door-to-door visits.

Primary voting has already begun in the state. As of Tuesday, nearly 225,000 voters — 76,000 of whom are Democrats — had mailed in ballots.
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

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FiveThirtyEight: Who’s ahead in Florida?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Bloomberg 24.4%
Biden 22.2%
Sanders 16.0%
Buttigieg 8.5%
Warren 7.8%
Klobuchar 6.6%
Steyer 1.4%
Gabbard 0.7%
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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Re: Florida Primary 2020: Tuesday March 17th

#16

Post by Addie »

Tallahassee Democrat
Will your vote count? Veil of secrecy makes it impossible for Florida voters to know

Florida’s March 17 presidential primary will be a referendum on state and county elections officials’ efforts to build a wall to stop hacking attempts that are constantly bombarding the system.

At a time when 59 percent of the public doesn't trust the election process, state elections officials have thrown a veil of secrecy over that work, refusing to disclose details about the weaknesses detected in their systems and whether they’ve been fixed.

Florida has doubled down on secrecy since federal officials reported at least four counties were hacked in 2016. The state forced all 67 elections supervisors to sign nondisclosure agreements before they could receive federal funding for elections security, be briefed about vulnerabilities found by cybersecurity experts or even hook up to the state’s voter registration system.

“It just felt coerced,” said Polk County Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards, a former member of the Legislature. “We have a broad public records law for a reason, so having to sign a nondisclosure agreement didn’t sit well with me … not only to receive funds, but information too.”
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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