Issues 2020: Electoral College

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Addie
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Issues 2020: Electoral College

#1

Post by Addie » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:06 am

Cook Political Report: Introducing The Cook Political Report's 2020 Electoral College Ratings

Here it is. Our first pass at the 2020 Electoral College ratings. These ratings take into consideration the 2016 and 2018 results as well as what we’ve learned about the political coalitions that currently make-up the Trump and Democratic bases. Obviously, what we don’t know — the political and economic climate in 2020, the Democratic nominee, the results of the Mueller investigation — are substantial. But, this is our best assessment of where things start today.

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Re: Electoral College 2020

#2

Post by AndyinPA » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:15 am

I wonder if Sherrod Brown enters the race for president, will Ohio vote Democratic? They seem to lean pretty red right now.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#3

Post by Addie » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:00 pm

The Nation
Democrats Need to Make Getting Rid of the Electoral College a Top Priority

Two Republican losers have “won” the presidency in 16 years—that should be a lesson for Democrats.


With the conclusion of Donald Trump’s chaotic government shutdown, Democrats can finally seize the bully pulpit. Inside the US Capitol, and on the already crowded 2020 campaign trail, they have a chance to identify their priorities.

This is an aspirational moment. And the partisans of the next American politics should seize it to speak in the boldest of terms. They should do so on behalf of economic and social and racial justice, and peace, and the planet. But they should also speak, bluntly, about how to make sure that history does not repeat itself.

Trump became president after getting crushed in the popular balloting of 2016 by almost 3 million votes. The only way the Republican loser got to occupy the Oval Office was through an archaic remnant from a founding moment when elites erected barriers to popular democracy: the Electoral College.

Trump wasn’t the first loser-winner. Before Trump, George W. Bush lost the 2000 popular vote but still slid into office thanks to the Electoral College—and an assist from a Republican-friendly US Supreme Court. So two Republican losers have “won” the presidency in 16 years. That should be a lesson for Democrats. The Electoral College is not their friend.

It should also be a lesson for independents and honorable Republicans, who must recognize that a system that regularly puts losers in power undermines confidence in elections and governance. Even Trump admitted back in 2012—when he was tweeting as an angry rich guy rather than as a desperate president—that “the Electoral College is a disaster for a democracy.”

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#4

Post by AndyinPA » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:15 pm

Well, Nixon and Reagan didn't exactly get there without cheating either.

Nixon--Vietnam

Reagan--Iran Contra

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#5

Post by Addie » Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:58 am

Baltimore Sun
Maryland bill would aim to speed up demise of the Electoral College

More than a decade ago, Maryland agreed to enter a compact to bypass the Electoral College in favor of the national popular vote for electing a president — if enough other states went along with the proposal.

But the effort to kill the Electoral College stalled.

Now, state Sen. Bill Ferguson, a Baltimore Democrat, is pushing a bill in the Maryland General Assembly he hopes speeds up the move to a national popular vote if other states also adopt the idea.

Ferguson’s bill, which is scheduled for a committee hearing next week, would authorize Maryland's 10 Electoral College votes to go to the winner of the national popular vote for president — instead of the winner of Maryland’s votes — provided a red state with the same number of Electoral College votes (in Maryland’s case, Wisconsin) agrees to do the same.

“This is about expediting Maryland moving toward the popular vote,” Ferguson said. “It breaks the political logjam through a pairing strategy. All of those states that sign up for the pairing strategy will send their votes to the winner of the popular vote.”

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#6

Post by Addie » Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:10 pm

Denver Post (paywall): Bill tying Colorado electoral votes to national popular vote clears another hurdle

The proposal passed the Senate without a single Republican voting for it, and now heads to the House where Democrats hold a substantial majority.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#7

Post by Addie » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:35 am

NPR
After Stinging Presidential Loss, Popular Vote Movement Gains Momentum In States

An attempt at an Electoral College workaround is gaining momentum in the Mountain West.

Democrats in Colorado and New Mexico are pushing ahead with legislation to pledge their 14 collective electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote — no matter who wins each state.

The plan only goes into effect if the law passes in states representing an electoral majority. That threshold is 270 votes, which is the same number needed to win the presidency. ...

And while a majority of the country has expressed support for giving the presidency to the person who wins the most votes — 55 percent in the latest Pew Research Center poll — there are sharp partisan divides. Three-quarters of Democrats are in favor of amending the Constitution to do so, but less than a third of Republicans are.

So far, 11 states — including New York, California and New Jersey — have joined the effort along with the District of Columbia, putting the effort 98 votes short of its goal.

Colorado appears poised to join as the 12th state. The state legislature passed the bill Thursday, and Gov. Jared Polis is expected to sign it. In New Mexico, the legislation is awaiting consideration in the state Senate after the House approved it earlier this month.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#8

Post by Sluffy1 » Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:20 pm

Image

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#9

Post by Addie » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:03 am

WaPo
The popular vote could decide the 2020 presidential election, if these states get their way ...

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact — which already has 11 states and the District of Columbia on board — would hand the 2020 presidential election to whoever wins the popular vote. But it would only take effect if states representing at least 270 electoral college votes pass the law.

Under the Constitution, states have the power to determine how they award their electoral votes in national elections. Today, many states have winner-take-all laws, which award all of its electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes within the state.

Most states swing either Democrat or Republican, making the winner of a given election in the majority of jurisdictions a foregone conclusion. Candidates don’t need to focus on issues concerning those voters and, as a result, winner-take-all statutes have created a handful of “battleground” states that candidates focus their attention and policies on.

“If candidates are behind in a state, they ignore it because they won’t be able to flip it during a three-month campaign. If they’re ahead in a state, they don’t pay attention because they won’t lose it,” said John R. Koza, chairman of National Popular Vote, a movement advocating state legislation for the compact. ...

“When we hit 270, all these bills take effect simultaneously. Then there’s a pool of 270 electoral votes that’s going to go to whomever gets the most votes in all 50 states,” Koza added. ...

“The problem with the compact is getting another dozen states to sign on,” said Reed Hundt, chairman and co-founder of Making Every Vote Count. The remaining states where it may pass are smaller and left-leaning. “Republican states haven’t embraced it yet.”

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#10

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:54 am

Addie wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:03 am
WaPo
.... “Republican states haven’t embraced it yet.”
[sarcasm font] I can't imagine why. [/sarcasm font]
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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#11

Post by AndyinPA » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:56 am

Few of the republican states will sign on. But many of them don't have many electoral votes: Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Idaho, others.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#12

Post by Addie » Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:59 pm

The Hill
Holder: 'Time to make the Electoral College a vestige of the past'

Former Attorney General Eric Holder on Tuesday called for eliminating the Electoral College, saying that it is "undemocratic" and "forces candidates to ignore" the majority of voters.

"Time to make Electoral College a vestige of the past. It’s undemocratic, forces candidates to ignore majority of the voters and campaign in a small number of states. The presidency is our one national office and should be decided - directly - by the voters," Holder wrote in a tweet.
Time to make Electoral College a vestige of the past. It’s undemocratic, forces candidates to ignore majority of the voters and campaign in a small number of states. The presidency is our one national office and should be decided - directly - by the voters https://t.co/OyRbXOiBpz
— Eric Holder (@EricHolder) February 26, 2019
Holder's comments comes as several states have moved to circumvent the Electoral College.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#13

Post by Addie » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:41 am

The Hill
Blue states band together looking to bypass Electoral College ...

The plan has been given new impetus after Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) said this week that he will sign a bill to have his state become the 12th state along with the District of Columbia to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

The states making up the compact, which already includes New York, Illinois and all the New England states except for New Hampshire, would commit to awarding their electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote nationally, regardless of the results in the Electoral College.

So far, these states, with Colorado, add up to 181 electoral votes, well short of the 270 needed to ascend to the White House.

Advocates are doubtful that enough states can join the compact for it to take effect by 2020, but hold hope of garnering enough support by 2024, as a handful of states like New Mexico also consider the measure, though proponents acknowledge the path to get to 270 will be far from easy.

Colorado state Rep. Emily Sirota (D), one of the sponsors of that state’s legislation, said she sees the compact “as a way to ensure that every vote is counted equally” and force candidates to campaign nationwide instead of targeting a few battleground states that can deliver success in the electoral math.

“If we had presidential candidates campaigning across the country, instead of a handful of swing states, you'd see a lot more participation from across the country and I think that is good and healthy for our electoral process,” Sirota told The Hill.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#14

Post by Addie » Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:42 pm

Associated Press
Maine Legislative Committee supports electing U.S. President via national popular vote

AUGUSTA, Maine — A Maine legislative committee has endorsed a bill that would add Maine to a growing list of states pushing to elect the President of the United States via national popular vote.

The bill sponsored by Democratic Senate President Troy Jackson proposes that Maine join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The Portland Press Herald reports the Legislature's Veterans and Legal Affairs Committee voted 6-3 on Monday to endorse on party lines, with Democrats in support and Republicans opposing.

The compact would only go into effect when its membership represents at least 270 electoral votes. Maine has four electoral college votes.

Eleven states and the District of Columbia have already signed on to the compact agreement.

The bill now heads to the Democratic-controlled state House and Senate.
Adding:
Boston Globe: Paul LePage says proposal to sideline Electoral College would silence ‘white people’

"It’s only going to be the minorities who would elect."

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#15

Post by bob » Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:16 pm

This 538 article is excited by Colorado's expected passage of the NPVI. Because so far it has only been blue states signing on, and Colorado is seen as the first purple state to join.

This may be an elephant-in-the-dark situation: Is Colorado the first purple state to join, or is Colorado now a blue state?
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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#16

Post by Addie » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:52 pm

Associated Press
Delaware may require Electoral College votes to go to national, not state winner

DOVER, Del. (AP) — The state Senate is set to vote on having Delaware join other states that want to pool their Electoral College votes for the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote.

The legislation to be voted on Thursday requires Delaware to cast its three electoral votes for the national popular vote winner, rather than the winner of the popular vote in Delaware.

Eleven Democratic-leaning states and the District of Columbia already have voted to enter the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Democrat-controlled Colorado will soon join the list, giving the compact 181 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to elect the president.

The initiative was launched after Democrat Al Gore lost to Republican George Bush in 2000. It gained steam after Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#17

Post by Addie » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:51 pm

Denver Post
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis signs National Popular Vote Act

Conservative opponents will begin gathering signatures to ask voters to overturn it


Gov. Jared Polis on Friday quietly signed a bill that pledges Colorado’s Electoral College votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote.

The National Popular Vote Act makes Colorado part of a multi-state compact — but it only takes effect if and when enough states join to control 270 electoral votes.

The bill had no Republican support in either chamber, and opponents announced plans Friday to ask voters to overturn the law.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#18

Post by Addie » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:35 pm

Philly Trib
Delaware moves to give its Electoral College votes to the popular vote winner

The Delaware House voted 24-17 to join an alliance of states that want to combine all their Electoral College votes and pledge them to presidential candidates who win the national popular vote.

Proponents say it could entice presidential candidates who often skip the state entirely to campaign in Delaware.

Eleven states and Washington, D.C., have joined the effort. It won’t take effect until enough states join the group to deliver a majority of Electoral College votes. Not counting Delaware’s three votes, the measure still needs 98 more. Neighboring New Jersey already joined the coalition.

Opponents argue the bill is purely reactionary to the recent presidential election. President Donald Trump won on the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote.

Others voiced concerns the bill won’t have fair outcomes if the majority of Delawareans vote for the candidate who does not win the popular vote, while other opponents said Delaware could still get ignored as candidates woo the larger states.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#19

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:59 am

Addie wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:35 pm
Others voiced concerns the bill won’t have fair outcomes if the majority of Delawareans vote for the candidate who does not win the popular vote, while other opponents said Delaware could still get ignored as candidates woo the larger states.
ComplaintS about hypothetical unfair outcomes from the small states should be ignored when they each have a disproportionate (hence unfair) representation in the Senate, creating an inbuilt advantage for right-wing rural reactionaries.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#20

Post by Danraft » Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:52 am

I'll put in a counter-point--- and not just to take the Devil's Advocate opinion for discussion purposes.

There are several reasons to retain the system (and yet fix the problem) and really only one to ditch the electoral system.

The one reason to change it is "sour grapes" that the Democratic candidate has (more than once) received the majority of the votes, but the EC system awarded the victory to the other candidate.

If the national majority doesn't win, does the election lack legitimacy?
A person doesn't vote for a president directly--the one's who cast a ballot were representing the needs of all of the state (even the one's that didn't or couldn't vote. The resident state is the entity voting.

It is quite clear that this was important as a very calculated and unique manner of coming to the number of electoral votes allocated per state is a blend of the Senate's uniform 2 votes per state and the House's allocation on population (not citizens or voters- women were counted, but couldn't vote and slaves were counted as 3/5's but couldn't vote) by adding the two numbers together. (The fact that we have only 538 congressional seats and should have 2-3 times that exacerbates the issue). There are some finer points, but, the blending of the two systems is the gist.

It was created for this one purpose.
What happens if is gone and the simple majority candidate wins?

IMO, if the divide in the country is such that the Coasts and the Interior have such differences, and the most common trait, by mumble-mumble-survey, was Trump voters felt they "did not have a voice" or "didn't have any influence" in national events. (Mumble mumble was reputable yet forgettable source-- sigh, I've slept since then)... then this was supposed to be a wake-up call.

Let's say the EC was gone.
The divide and ill will in the country would grow, and the nation would fragment more than it already has.
If the situation is that, with their best efforts (and having already suffered the indignity of the loss), the Democratic Party cannot place a winning candidate and platform in front of the country ( not the coasts)-- then, "thems the breaks".

More seats in congress are needed. Rotating the sequence placement of states in the primaries would seem wise. Many reforms in politics i have heard are worth considering.
But, "majority rules" is also a form of oppression.
And, that was deliberately side stepped in the architecture of our political system.
I don't see the EC as the problem.

In fact, I believe the "problem" is the attitude that it should be changed rather than address that it is doing what it was meant to do.
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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#21

Post by Whatever4 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:09 am

Danraft,

I’d agree to keep the EC, except we’ve already significantly changed the Framer’s intent by capping the number of US Reps.
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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#22

Post by Addie » Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:19 pm

CNN: What getting rid of the Electoral College would actually do

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#23

Post by Addie » Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:44 am

Daily Beast - Goldie Taylor
It’s Time to Kill the Electoral College, One of America’s Original Sins

Beating the rigged math, as Obama did, produced a backlash so strong that we sent Trump to the White House. We deserve better.


It wasn’t supposed to happen. In a country founded by British expatriates, whose economic system was built on the backs of human chattel harvested from Africa, Barack Obama won the U.S. presidency.

Twice.

But, a half-term U.S. senator from Illinois and descendant of Africa did indeed upend the math. To truly appreciate the import of the Obama victories, one must first understand that the process—quasi-democratic as it may be—was designed to keep people like him out of federal office. ...

When calculating legislative representation and taxation, the 1787 Constitutional Convention decided only three out of every five slaves would count as a person. In what became known as the three-fifths compromise, Southern states were allowed to count their slaves at a discount and walked away with half as many more seats. That meant an increase from 33 congressional seats to 47, and a similar advantage in Electoral College votes.

The system was built with additional guardrails specifically designed to mute the voices of minority populations, whether or not they or their votes were counted.

According to History Central, the Electoral College was “created for two reasons.” First was creating a “buffer between population and the selection of a President,” meaning its 538 voting members could effectively override the popular vote if need be. Some believed that citizens located far from the nation’s capital would not truly understand the issues and would be less familiar with the candidates. For context, this was decades before the Pony Express was formed and centuries before the first Twitter feud broke out. In other words, there were people quite literally closer to the center of power who were better informed to make those choices for everyone else.
Adding:
Newsweek: 2020 Democrats Are Calling for Abolishing the Electoral College—It Nearly Happened a Few Decades Ago

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#24

Post by Addie » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:34 pm

Cross-posting

The Hill
Dem senator introduces bill to abolish Electoral College

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) announced on Friday that he is introducing legislation to abolish the Electoral College as part of a package of election reform bills.

"It’s time to end the undemocratic Electoral College, and to ensure a pathway to full voting representation for all American citizens, regardless of whether they live in Portland or Puerto Rico," Merkley said in a statement.

The bill would propose a constitutional amendment to nix the Electoral College and elect the president by a direct popular vote.

Merkley, as part of a "We the People" democracy blueprint released earlier this year, argued that the current system for electing a president is "profoundly unfair" and has resulted in two elections over the past two decades where candidates didn't win the popular vote but still won the White House. ...

Enacting a constitutional amendment would be an uphill battle, if not an impossible goal. The amendment would first need to win over two-thirds of both chambers of Congress, and then be ratified by three-fourths of the states.

But Merkley's package of bills comes as Democrats are floating several electoral and congressional reforms as part of the party's primary debate, including nixing the 60-vote legislative filibuster in the Senate or expanding the number of seats on the Supreme Court.

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Re: Issues 2020: Electoral College

#25

Post by Addie » Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:16 pm

Newsweek: ... Delaware Governor John Carney on Thursday signed SB22, legislation that made Delaware the thirteenth state to join the National Popular Vote compact, which would change the way electoral votes are awarded in presidential elections. Rather than have those votes go for the candidate that won the popular vote in that state, the electoral votes would instead go toward the total for winner of the overall national vote.

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