Casten for CongressCook Political: House Rating Changes: Post-Kavanaugh Polls Reveal an Even More Polarized Landscape ...
IL-06: Peter Roskam (R) - Chicago west suburbs: Wheaton, Palatine
Democrats didn't get their ideal nominee here back in March, but in this kind of political environment, it may not matter. Roskam, who hasn't had a competitive race since beating now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth for this seat in 2006, is now trailing scientist and energy businessman Sean Casten in both parties' polling. And Roskam's attacks on Casten don't seem to be sticking.
These high-income Chicago suburbs are unraveling for the GOP: despite Democrats packing the 6th CD with Republicans in 2011, it voted for Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent in 2016. Roskam, the former House GOP chief deputy whip, voted for his party's healthcare and tax bills. And now, Casten and the DCCC are pounding Roskam for voting with President Trump "94 percent of the time."
Democrats suffered a slight setback when Casten defeated initial frontrunner Kelly Mazeski in the primary, 30 percent to 27 percent. Mazeski had a powerful story of surviving breast cancer, but she split primary votes with four other women. Casten has run ads on climate change, an issue that may not resonate as strongly with the country club Republicans as changes to the SALT deduction.
The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund used August and September to go nuclear on Casten, alleging he "cashed in on taxpayer subsidies" and "gave himself huge bonuses" while his renewable energy business "tanked," leaving investors high and dry. But while the NRCC is continuing to spend out of loyalty to Roskam, the CLF hasn't seen much return on its investment and may opt out.
Casten announced raising $2.6 million in the third quarter alone, more than Roskam had in cash on hand at the end of June. But the real GOP fear is that Gov. Bruce Rauner is polling so badly in his reelection race that he could drag others down with him. This race is far from over, but Casten is the favorite today.