Fogbow

I think part of the problem with figuring out how much of a 'Russian Bear' there is, is that a lot of Russia's focus and strength is on defensive capabilities and domestic logistics. Russia has always sucked at projecting power beyond its borders, but has always excelled at defense. A big part of the failure here was not in their raw capabilities, but in their assumption that fighting back would be minimal since they would mostly be welcomed in by people disillusioned with their own government. Western analysts assumed the same thing, they did not think that Russia had some fantastic new capabilities, they read the same tea leaves with Ukraine's massive public policy failures and domestic unrest. The government was pretty damn unpopular before this, and it was really Zelenskyy's incredible management of the optics that turned it from an easy win into a real grind.

But do not confuse this with the bear really being a sickly yak. Russia is still as dangerous as ever and would be formidable if anyone pushed too close to their boarder and the conflict became defensive on their side and who knows how opinion would shift if westerners got directly involved. Right now it is rus vs rus, two nations that excel at defense... which sadly is why they will probably end up giving up the eastern (if not southern) provinces since, well, once they become the aggressor, they run into many of the same weaknesses that Russia is.

Foggy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:37 am But it's not over yet. I still think when Putin's back is against the wall he's going to do something crazy.

I think he's just going to try and save face, maybe a piece of Ukraine for all his troubles. He can pretty well sell the Russian people that it was his intention all along. You know, like his follower Trump does with his cult.

He slightly pulled some troops away from area surrounding Kiev but then he bombarded with missiles even more furiously. He’s a liar, trying to catch them off guard. He has something awful up his sleeve.

RVInit wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:03 am He slightly pulled some troops away from area surrounding Kiev but then he bombarded with missiles even more furiously. He’s a liar, trying to catch them off guard. He has something awful up his sleeve.

Exactly. I don’t think will fall for it.

I hope they use Starstreak to good effect.

pipistrelle wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:58 am

RVInit wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:03 am He slightly pulled some troops away from area surrounding Kiev but then he bombarded with missiles even more furiously. He’s a liar, trying to catch them off guard. He has something awful up his sleeve.

Exactly. I don’t think will fall for it.

I hope they use Starstreak to good effect.

Yeah, they are simply regrouping.

At worst they might even be getting ready to use certain weapons against Kyiv and want to make sure their own troops are further away. At best they are regrouping to put more pressure in areas where they have a better chance of establishing more serious control, while they continue to pummel civilian targets in as many cities as possible from the air and missiles launched from land and sea positions.

putin can't die an awful, prolonged, seriously painful death fast enough for me.

Some historical back story:

Foggy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:37 am My father is old. Really old. But he did spend a career in the Navy and a second one in the defense industry, and he talks to the people he knows who are still around. He told me he was shocked that Kyiv didn't fall in 3 days. He thought there was a real Mighty Russian Bear too also.

But it's not over yet. I still think when Putin's back is against the wall he's going to do something crazy.

Just to confirm: Crazy like pull off the mask and reveal he's been Andy Kaufman the whole time? Or crazy like Dr. Strangelove?

https://twitter.com/komadovsky/status/1 ... 7213943809

Misha Komadovsky@komadovsky

The US intel community concludes that Putin was unaware that the military had been using and losing conscripts in Ukraine. Reportedly, there are tensions between Putin and his Minister of Defense Shoigu.
5:07 PM · Mar 30, 2022 from Washington, DC·Twitter for iPhone

US intelligence officials have determined that Vladimir #Putin is being misinformed by his very own advisers about Russian forces’ performance in Ukraine.

#Putin's senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth about #Ukraine, according to the US official.

Just assume that everything that comes out of Russia is a lie, and the world makes a lot more sense.

Hell, even this could be a misdirection to make Putin look better. Putin can read western media like everyone else and he knows that the day 1 objectives haven't been met. Russia is a tissue of lies.

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:16 pm

Foggy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:37 am My father is old. Really old. But he did spend a career in the Navy and a second one in the defense industry, and he talks to the people he knows who are still around. He told me he was shocked that Kyiv didn't fall in 3 days. He thought there was a real Mighty Russian Bear too also.

But it's not over yet. I still think when Putin's back is against the wall he's going to do something crazy.

Just to confirm: Crazy like pull off the mask and reveal he's been Andy Kaufman the whole time? Or crazy like Dr. Strangelove?

Yes.

Suranis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:48 pm https://twitter.com/komadovsky/status/1 ... 7213943809

Misha Komadovsky@komadovsky

The US intel community concludes that Putin was unaware that the military had been using and losing conscripts in Ukraine. Reportedly, there are tensions between Putin and his Minister of Defense Shoigu.
5:07 PM · Mar 30, 2022 from Washington, DC·Twitter for iPhone

US intelligence officials have determined that Vladimir #Putin is being misinformed by his very own advisers about Russian forces’ performance in Ukraine.

#Putin's senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth about #Ukraine, according to the US official.

Just assume that everything that comes out of Russia is a lie, and the world makes a lot more sense.

Hell, even this could be a misdirection to make Putin look better. Putin can read western media like everyone else and he knows that the day 1 objectives haven't been met. Russia is a tissue of lies.

I have seen some articles of the opinion that Putin doesn't know the truth, that his advisors are feeding him garbage out of fear. Is it even plausible he doesn't look in on CNN himself? He speaks English so he hardly depends on them to hear what the Western media says.

It's possible he's detached from reality and doesn't believe anything that doesn't make him look powerful. We have about 60 million people like that here.

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:16 pm Just to confirm: Crazy like pull off the mask and reveal he's been Andy Kaufman the whole time?

"Here's a tank division instead of Saint Petersburg
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Vladimir Putin's gone wrestling
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah"

Seven busses packed with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome arrived to #Belarus from the #Ukrainian #Chernobyl exclusion zone. Source: member of public council of state #Ukraine agency of exclusion zone Yaroslav Yemelyanenko via Unian news agency.

No idea of the validity of the source.

jcolvin2 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:43 pm

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:16 pm Just to confirm: Crazy like pull off the mask and reveal he's been Andy Kaufman the whole time?

"Here's a tank division instead of Saint Petersburg
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Vladimir Putin's gone wrestling
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah"

Slim Cognito wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:37 pm It's possible he's detached from reality and doesn't believe anything that doesn't make him look powerful. We have about 60 million people like that here.

I'm a little skeptical that Putin wouldn't be well informed on western reporting. Unless his government has so utterly and thoroughly eliminated western media sources from being available that even Putin himself can't access sources like CNN or other sources.

Ya, thinking about it, that would fly for maybe a few days, but eventually Putin is gong to start looking around trying to find out why he hasn't taken Kiev yet. Its been over 30 days, even Hitler in Downfall had to be told that there were no phantom divisions in that time.

I can buy that he had no idea how bad his army was at the beginning of the war, but you can be sure that he has some idea now. "poor innocent Putin" is just trying to preserve the mans Mystique and genius reputation, and blaming the underlings.

Suranis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:43 pm Ya, thinking about it, that would fly for maybe a few days, but eventually Putin is gong to start looking around trying to find out why he hasn't taken Kiev yet. Its been over 30 days, even Hitler in Downfall had to be told that there were no phantom divisions in that time.

I can buy that he had no idea how bad his army was at the beginning of the war, but you can be sure that he has some idea now. "poor innocent Putin" is just trying to preserve the mans Mystique and genius reputation, and blaming the underlings.

Sure she was in the Brotherhood of Evil Mutants, but even she wouldn't have anything to do with Putin...

After all even evil has standards...

I'll see myself out...

WASHINGTON —
U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being misinformed by advisers about his military's poor performance in Ukraine, according to the White House.

The intelligence finding, which was recently declassified, indicates that Putin is aware of the situation on information coming to him and there is now persistent tension between him and senior Russian military officials.

The U.S. believes Putin is being misled not only about his military's performance but also "how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because again, his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth," White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said Wednesday.

https://www.wapt.com/article/putin-misl ... e/39588493

Understandable. Russia has a lot of windows.

jcolvin2 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:43 pm

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:16 pm Just to confirm: Crazy like pull off the mask and reveal he's been Andy Kaufman the whole time?

"Here's a tank division instead of Saint Petersburg
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Vladimir Putin's gone wrestling
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah"

OMG someone used a REM song Andy Kaufman would approve.

sugar magnolia wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 5:11 am

WASHINGTON —
U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being lied to by everyone. Or are they lying, Vlad? Hey, we are still listening to your briefings! Heh heh...

Ya they are just putting that out there to make Vlad even more paranoid, just like Biden started talking about his war plans before the ink was dry prior to the 27th of Feb.

neonzx wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:12 am

jcolvin2 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:43 pm

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:16 pm Just to confirm: Crazy like pull off the mask and reveal he's been Andy Kaufman the whole time?

"Here's a tank division instead of Saint Petersburg
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Vladimir Putin's gone wrestling
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah"

OMG someone used a REM song Andy Kaufman would approve.

I laughed out loud when I read jcolvin's post. I wondered who else would get that reference.

How can can Ukrainian pilots fly helicopters with those giant balls?