Russia Invades Ukraine

[Gregg]

Negative. Too much chance fthat at least one of them will survive.

You can modernize the scene and give each a tactical battlefield backpack nuke

Officially retired for a couple of decades (1989) SADM's were in fact JUST about backpackable at 70 pounds, when you add in the fact that you still have to carry all of the rest of our kit along with it.

They were quite cumbersome and better used as nuclear mines against tanks or we trained for bridge and salient/valley interdiction in the very early 80's.

Video for your delectation

For when you need to take out a bridge, and the valley it spans, and the villages the road over it connected, and within a few hours human civilization.

[RTH10260]

You better keep that device out of the city limits of Chico CA

Chico and the ban

By REBECCA LaVALLY
NOV. 8, 1983

CHICO, Calif. -- Liberal city commissioners strengthened a plan to ban nuclear research and development in Chico but bowed to 'international ridicule' and scrapped a proposal for a $500 fine against anyone dropping an atomic bomb on the town.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1983/11/08 ... 437115600/

[Gregg]

So much for the Detente.

Kremlin smears Wagner boss Prigozhin, hailing Putin as Russia’s savior

[Mr brolin]

You can modernize the scene and give each a tactical battlefield backpack nuke

Officially retired for a couple of decades (1989) SADM's were in fact JUST about backpackable at 70 pounds, when you add in the fact that you still have to carry all of the rest of our kit along with it.

They were quite cumbersome and better used as nuclear mines against tanks or we trained for bridge and salient/valley interdiction in the very early 80's.

Video for your delectation

For when you need to take out a bridge, and the valley it spans, and the villages the road over it connected, and within a few hours human civilization.

You really don't want to know how insecure the the Security was around tactical nuclear weapon release was upto the 80's.... Or how far down the seniority level authority could be devolved...... Google "Permissive Action Link" and wonder how an Oopsie moment didn't occur....

[keith]

Not sure about this one... Twitter? Ukraine? Russia? is there a thread on misinformation? Anyway, here it is.

Twitter Blue accounts fuel Ukraine War misinformation

False and misleading posts about the Ukraine conflict continue to go viral on major social media platforms, as Russia's invasion of the country extends beyond 500 days.

Some of the most widely shared examples can be found on Twitter, posted by subscribers with a blue tick, who pay for their content to be promoted to other users.

Specific examples are detailed in the link above.

[neonzx]

[Dave from down under]

Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis designed to find the true human cost of Moscow's invasion.

Key points:
Russia has confirmed the deaths of 6,000 soldiers, but is believed to be hiding the real number of casualties
Two independent media outlets and a German data scientist used Russian inheritance records and mortality data to estimate the true death toll
The Russian government has refused to comment on the study's findings

Two independent Russian media outlets — Mediazona and Meduza — working with a data scientist from Germany's Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow's closest-held secrets — the real number of Russian casualties.

To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularised during the COVID-19 pandemic called "excess mortality".

Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under the age of 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal.

Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-11/ ... /102587006

[RTH10260]

it's not always windows ....

Russian ex-submarine commander shot dead while running in park
Russia’s FSB arrests man, 64, on suspicion of killing Stanislav Rzhitsky, who was accused by Ukraine of deadly strikes in war

Pjotr Sauer
Tue 11 Jul 2023 15.45 BST

A senior Russian draft officer and former submarine commander accused by Ukraine of deadly strikes on its territory has been shot dead while jogging in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar.

Stanislav Rzhitsky, 42, was killed on Monday by an unidentified gunman during a morning run in a park near the Olimp sports centre, local police said.

Russian FSB security services said on Tuesday that a 64-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of carrying out the attack.

At the time of his death, Rzhitsky was serving as the deputy head of the Krasnodar city administration’s mobilisation.

According to the Russian daily newspaper Kommersant, Rzhitsky was previously the commander of the Krasnodar submarine, named after the city, in the Russian navy.

The Ukrainian army said in a Telegram post on Tuesday that Rzhitsky was in command of a submarine that carried out a deadly missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia in July 2022, killing 23 civilians.

Rzhitsky’s father told the Baza, a Russian Telegram channel with links to the security services, that his son left the military in December 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine. Several close friends of Rzhitsky similarly told the independent Russian station Dozdh that Rzhitsky left the army before the war started.




https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ng-in-park

[Sam the Centipede]

Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis designed to find the true human cost of Moscow's invasion.

Ukrainian official reports claim about 235,000 Russian troops lost. I don't know whether that includes casualties or not, but other estimates suggest Russia experiences 1 killed to 1.7 injured (because Russian field medical care is so bad) which would imply about 100,000 dead. Either way, well over that 50,000 independent estimate.

But independent doesn't necessarily mean accurate! There are many reports of Russian men no longer being in contact with families, who cannot get information, so these are probably dead. Why wouldn't they report deaths? Honesty is not exactly rewarded in Russia! And death would mean that the bereaved family are entitled to some benefits, which the cash-strapped state is probably reluctant to provide. So if the overall death statistics do not include many of the dead, the excess deaths calculation won't work.

It's a lot of deaths either way. And all for an irredentist, imperialistic escapade that the instigator is too proud to admit can never succeed. Poland, Finland, the Baltic states and others will be determined that Russia never again becomes their uncaring, exploitative overlord, so even if the USA and other NATO members falter, Ukraine will have massive regional support.

[Gregg]

I dunno where and I can't vouch for it, but I thought the numbers were 500,000 casualties including up to 200,000 dead.

And I have read reports about Russian families who have lost all contact with soldiers enough to think that the military is just ghosting families.

[Gregg]

Not what I'd call the best source, but might be where I read it...

It cites the NYTimes but I can't find the same claims there.

U.S. Estimates Russian Casualties in Ukraine Nearing 200K – NYT

U.S. and other Western officials estimate that close to 200,000 Russian troops have been killed and wounded in Ukraine nearly one year into Moscow’s invasion of its western neighbor, The New York Times reported Thursday.

“The figures for Ukraine and Russia are estimates based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports, as well as official reporting from both governments,” the newspaper said.

Hundreds of both Russian and Ukrainian troops have been killed or injured each day recently as fighting rages for the eastern city of Bakhmut, the longest and bloodiest battle of Russia’s invasion, the officials estimate.

ETA,, whoops, looks like even that says 200k total with much less killed. Sorry

[Dave from down under]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-13/ ... /102595962

Wagner mercenaries are handing over their weapons to the Russian military, according to the defence ministry.

The move follows the private army's brief rebellion last month that challenged the Kremlin's authority.

The handing over of weapons appears to herald an end to the mercenary group's operations on the battlefield in Ukraine.

[RTH10260]

Handing the weapons over? So where will Russia find the seasoned and motivated fighters to replace them? Numbers vary, between 20'000 and 50'000 needed, of cousre to be fully outfit.

[Phoenix520]

Does this mean Wagner is done as an international mercenary force? Or do they have their own weapons and they were just borrowing from Putin?

[Dave from down under]

From the article

Wagner is on holiday, while they decide the details with Belarus about camping there (see photo in article).
(and while we wait to learn if their boss has or hasn't fallen from a window)

Presumably Wagner in Belarus will buy/lease weapons from Belarus for their future employment contracts.

No pulic word yet on the foreign contracts that Wagner currently has - my bet is those contracts will be "transferred" to one or more of the remaining loyal Russian PMCs.
(Which might require the Wagner boss to sign over those contracts, which could be why his location is unknown - he may be having negotiations about signing over those contracts and they haven't yet removed all of his fingers (yet)).

The weapon handover will help the regular Russian army, however if the most effective of the Wagner contractors don't sign with the Russian army, then yes there will be an overall loss of "assets" (estimates are that 1 in 5 are valuable soldiers, the rest are expendables).

[Dave from down under]

from the above article

Russia's defence ministry says more than 2,000 pieces of equipment have been handed over.

This included tanks, rocket launchers, heavy artillery and air defence systems.

Wagner has also handed over more than 2,500 tonnes of munitions and more than 20,000 firearms.

(me: ie about the same amount as held in the average small US town ;P )

Putin has told Wagner troops they have three options.

They can sign contracts with Russia's defence ministry, move to Belarus or retire from service.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Wagner's commanders have pledged loyalty to Putin.

He says they are ready "to continue to fight for the Motherland".

Anton Yelizarov, who is a senior commander in the Wagner Group, was was quoted on by a channel on the Telegram messaging app saying the fighters were taking a vacation until early August, on Prigozhin's orders, before moving to Belarus.

"We have to prepare bases, training grounds, coordinate with local governments and administrations, organise interaction with the law enforcement agencies of Belarus and establish logistics," he reportedly said.

Reuters news agency could not verify the authenticity of the interview.

In Belarus, a former army camp has been made available for Wagner fighters.

The camp near Tsel, 90 kilometres south-west of Minsk, has rows of empty tents that could house up to 5,000 troops.

[Dave from down under]

My bet is the plum O/S contracts will either go to:
Patriot as Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Russian MoD are believed to have strong influence and control over the company. (ie it probably is Shoigu's private army)
and/or
Redut as the group was initiated by the deputy head of the GRU (Russian intelligence), General Vladimir Alexeyev, who made Anatoly Karaziy, a relative of his, head of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p ... ontractors

Russian companies
E.N.O.T. Corp.
Patriot
Redut
Slavonic Corps
Wagner Group

[RTH10260]

Russian spy chief confirms call to CIA director after Wagner revolt
Sergei Naryshkin says he and Bill Burns discussed the mutiny and ‘what to do with Ukraine’ in phone call last month

Reuters
Wed 12 Jul 2023 23.40 BST

Russia’s foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin has said that he and his CIA counterpart discussed the shortlived mutiny a week earlier by Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and “what to do with Ukraine” in a phone call late last month.

Sergei Naryshkin, head of the SVR foreign intelligence service, told Russia’s TASS new agency on Wednesday that Bill Burns had raised “the events of June 24” – when fighters from the Wagner mercenary group took control of a southern Russian city and advanced towards Moscow before reaching a deal with the Kremlin to end the revolt.

But he said that for most of the call, lasting about an hour, “we considered and discussed what to do with Ukraine”.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ector-call

[Slim Cognito]

from the above article

Russia's defence ministry says more than 2,000 pieces of equipment have been handed over.

...

Color me skeptical.

[Dave from down under]

from the above article

Russia's defence ministry says more than 2,000 pieces of equipment have been handed over.

...

Color me skeptical.

2,001 toothpick M-48

[Suranis]

Russian spy chief confirms call to CIA director after Wagner revolt
Sergei Naryshkin says he and Bill Burns discussed the mutiny and ‘what to do with Ukraine’ in phone call last month

Reuters
Wed 12 Jul 2023 23.40 BST

Russia’s foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin has said that he and his CIA counterpart discussed the shortlived mutiny a week earlier by Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and “what to do with Ukraine” in a phone call late last month.

Sergei Naryshkin, head of the SVR foreign intelligence service, told Russia’s TASS new agency on Wednesday that Bill Burns had raised “the events of June 24” – when fighters from the Wagner mercenary group took control of a southern Russian city and advanced towards Moscow before reaching a deal with the Kremlin to end the revolt.

But he said that for most of the call, lasting about an hour, “we considered and discussed what to do with Ukraine”.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ector-call

Colour me very skeptical about every single word of that shit

[RTH10260]

Attack Of The Lawn Mowers

[Dave from down under]

Me: we have always been at war with Eurasia

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-14/ ... /102605210

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Wagner mercenaries the opportunity to keep fighting at a meeting just days after their failed mutiny but suggested Yevgeny Prigozhin be moved aside in favour of a different commander, the Kommersant newspaper said.

Key points:

Mr Putin met the Wagner mercenary group just five days after the mutiny, the Kremlin said
The Russian president said he suggested "Sedoi", a senior Wagner figure, take command but Mr Prigozhin declined
Mr Biden joked that the mercenary chief, whose location is unknown, should be "careful" of what he eats
Mr Putin initially said he would crush the June 23-24 mutiny, comparing it to the wartime turmoil that ushered in the revolutions of 1917, but hours later a deal was clinched to allow Mr Prigozhin and some of his fighters to go to Belarus.

Mystery surrounds the fate of that deal as well as the future of the Wagner Group, one of the world's most battle-hardened mercenary forces, and Mr Prigozhin, a former convict who rose to become known as "Putin's chef" and Russia's most powerful mercenary.

The Kremlin said on Monday that Mr Putin had held talks with Wagner commanders and Mr Prigozhin at a meeting on June 29, five days after the mutiny.

The mercenaries, the Kremlin said, reaffirmed their loyalty to Mr Putin.

But Kommersant, one of Russia's top newspapers, published Mr Putin's remarks to its most experienced Kremlin correspondent, Andrei Kolesnikov, which suggested the future of Mr Prigozhin and Wagner was in doubt.

"But Wagner does not exist," Mr Putin told Kommersant when asked if it would be preserved as a fighting unit.

"There is no law on private military organisations. It just doesn't exist."

Asked about Mr Putin's remark, the Kremlin said that there was no legal entity named Wagner and the legal status of such companies was a complicated one which needed consideration.

Me etc

[RTH10260]

As I mentioned above, Russia has no means to just replace a seasoned fighting force of several ten thousends. If Putin were to discard the Wagner group as a whole, the chances are that the fighters may turn against the Russian army. But even in a better outcome Russia would have to evacuate these thousands with trucks that they themselves have not in abundance. Not will all want to be relocated to Belarus, nor Belarus take all of them in. Also too Putin may still want a contigent of warriors not part of the Russian forces to be able to fight a dirty war. Like having had thousands of inmates being used as cannon fodder. They would never have been able to be put into a regular Russian unit.

[Foggy]

They would never have been able to be put into a regular Russian unit.

Oh, I don't know. My opinion of the regular Russian units is a bit reduced, following all the months of fail. It seems they get no real training. Their command elements are more interested in stealing from the government than preparing for conflict, so they have little equipment, in bad repair. We all learned that Kyiv didn't fall in three days, like we thought it might.

I've known jail inmates with real talents. I met an inmate at the minimal security prison in my county, and they let him work as a handyman with a belt full of tools that might be nice for escaping prison, but he wasn't interested in that.

He'd be a good fit for the regular units, maybe even kick 'em up a notch.