Fogbow

unconfirmed rumor on twitter that another Russian warship, a frigate, has been sunk.

Chilidog wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 10:14 pm unconfirmed rumor on twitter that another Russian warship, a frigate, has been sunk.

still not debunked or confirmed

Chilidog wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 9:44 am still not debunked or confirmed

Well, would be great if true. That would reduce the number to what, 9 ships? And once that number reaches zero, that opens up some new options for supplying Ukraine and/or distracting Russia. I wonder if Turkey would let a carrier group through? Park that off the coast of Georgia or something.

EDIT tweet deleted. video may be fake.

neeneko wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 10:09 amI wonder if Turkey would let a carrier group through? Park that off the coast of Georgia or something.

No; the applicable treaty bars all warcraft; it isn't up to Turkey's discretion. (And it is doubtful Turkey would suddenly abandon or "re-interpret" the treaty.)

The Harry S. Truman carrier group already is in the Mediterranean Sea. I assume there's little tactical value in it being in the Black Sea proper.

Kriselda Gray wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:17 pm

Off Topic

Volkonski wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:49 am Germany preparing for change of control at Rosneft refinery -minister

Germany is preparing for a change of control at the PCK refinery in Schwedt

Is that where Schweddy Balls are from?

I have been gone a while just ever now and then popping in to read a little bit of posts. I laughed so hard at your post. Thanks, needed that so much

bob wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 2:43 pm
No; the applicable treaty bars all warcraft; it isn't up to Turkey's discretion.

I first read that as "Witchcraft."

Then i wondered what a bunch of Gamers were doing trying to get into the Black sea.

CIA director comments.

Putin 'doesn't believe he can afford to lose' in Ukraine: CIA chief

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he cannot afford to lose in Ukraine and is "doubling down" on the war, but shows no signs of planning to use tactical nuclear weapons, CIA director Bill Burns said Saturday.

Despite the failure of Russian forces to capture Kyiv and their struggle to advance along the war's main frontlines in the southeastern Donbas region, the Russian leader has not changed his view that his troops can defeat Ukraine's, Burns said.

Putin's belief in the Russian military's ability to wear down Ukrainian resistance probably has not been shaken despite key battlefield defeats, the US spy chief told a Financial Times conference.

"I think he's in a frame of mind in which he doesn't believe he can afford to lose," Burns said.

He said Putin has been "stewing" for years over Ukraine -- once part of the Soviet Union -- in a "very combustible combination of grievance and ambition and insecurity."

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... -cia-chief
He goes on to say that Putin believes that doubling down will enable him to make progress.

bob wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 2:43 pm No; the applicable treaty bars all warcraft; it isn't up to Turkey's discretion. (And it is doubtful Turkey would suddenly abandon or "re-interpret" the treaty.)

The Harry S. Truman carrier group already is in the Mediterranean Sea. I assume there's little tactical value in it being in the Black Sea proper.

Does it? I thought it required Turkey to allow passage of any ship launched from a black sea nation but gave them the option to prohibit non black sea warships.

A ship or fleet whose home part is on the Black Sea may transit the Bosporus in peacetime, but I'm not sure if during hostilities, I doubt it. I also don't know when fleets not ported on the Black Sea are allowed in. I'm pretty sure that everyone involved is gonna need to finish what they started with what they have there now.

Aircraft from the Truman can cover most of Ukraine with in air refueling and the if they get permission to overfly countries, (or ask forgiveness afterwards instead) The Truman is currently, for the first time ever, under NATO command and not US Atlantic Fleet, so permission to overfly NATO member Turkey might be automatic if they decide its time for Harry to start dropping bombs again.

The last time Harry Truman drop bombs, it was very bad...

As if an international convention would be simple…

“Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_ ... he_Straits

“Russo-Ukrainian War
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the Ukrainian government appealed to Turkey to exercise its authority under the Montreux Convention to limit the transit of Russian warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. At least six Russian warships and a submarine had crossed the Turkish straits in February. After initial reluctance, attributed to the country's close ties with both Russia and Ukraine, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced on 27 February that his government would legally recognise the Russian invasion as a "war", which provides grounds for implementing the Convention with respect to military vessels. However, Çavuşoğlu reiterated that pursuant to the terms of the agreement, Turkey cannot block Russian warships based in the Black Sea from returning to their registered base. Around February 27–28, Turkey refused permission for 3 of 4 Russian warships to enter the Black Sea, as 3 did not have a home base in the Black Sea.”

See the section “1994 reforms”.

Take 10 minutes & watch.

Somebody's getting an up-close look at an open window very soon.

RVInit wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 4:10 pm I have been gone a while just ever now and then popping in to read a little bit of posts. I laughed so hard at your post. Thanks, needed that so much

Thanks for letting me know - I really appreciate that and am glad it helped you!

Ah, so its all our fault.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/puti ... -rcna27873

Speaking ahead of a massive parade of troops, tanks and military hardware in Moscow, Putin claimed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had been necessary because the West was “preparing for the invasion of our land, including Crimea,” according to comments translated by Reuters.

It’s unclear whether Putin was referring to Russia, or territory that Moscow considers to be Russian. This includes Crimea, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and the eastern Donbas region, where Donetsk and Luhansk — two pro-Russian self-proclaimed “republics” — are located.

Putin provided no evidence for his claims, but used the speech to lambast NATO and Ukraine’s allies, and justify what Russia claims is a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

neonzx wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 8:31 am Ah, so its all our fault.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/puti ... -rcna27873

Speaking ahead of a massive parade of troops, tanks and military hardware in Moscow, Putin claimed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had been necessary because the West was “preparing for the invasion of our land, including Crimea,” according to comments translated by Reuters.

It’s unclear whether Putin was referring to Russia, or territory that Moscow considers to be Russian. This includes Crimea, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and the eastern Donbas region, where Donetsk and Luhansk — two pro-Russian self-proclaimed “republics” — are located.

Putin provided no evidence for his claims, but used the speech to lambast NATO and Ukraine’s allies, and justify what Russia claims is a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

I'm not a student of history. I don't know what all transpired over the vast lands claimed by Russia over the centuries. Certainly the Russians are not known as explorers--their brief foray onto the California coast near Sebastopol was quickly abandoned. (Yes, I am aware of the Russian River in Mendocino and Sonoma Counties.) I'm not convinced that they were traders in search of spices and other goods in distant lands.

I am aware of the ongoing battle with Japan concerning those islands between Kamchatka and Japan.

I guess that old Napoleon pulled a major blunder when he tried to invade Russia back in the day, but I don't know why he decided that annexing Russia would be a good idea.

What does Russia have (other than oil and gas and some rare earths) that is so highly coveted by the rest of the world? Why would countries risk their own safety and the lives of soldiers, sailors, and civilians (if a counterattack were launched) for a vast nation nearly bereft of any assets?

I suspect that most of the country only has about 120 frost-free days per year; Siberia even fewer.

I think Russia is essentially a third-world country that has been given first-world status because we want to kiss their hineys to keep them happy.

Their status is because they have nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver those weapons.

As long as it is possible that Russia might use nuclear weapons they have the world over a barrel.

humblescribe wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 2:50 pm I'm not a student of history. I don't know what all transpired over the vast lands claimed by Russia over the centuries. Certainly the Russians are not known as explorers--their brief foray onto the California coast near Sebastopol was quickly abandoned. (Yes, I am aware of the Russian River in Mendocino and Sonoma Counties.) I'm not convinced that they were traders in search of spices and other goods in distant lands.

A lot of the historical conflict between Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, is 'who are the true inheritors of the Rus people', and the Rus were viking traders/settlers who went from Sweeden into, well, an area that contained all three but were called the Kievan Rus.

So in a way, Putin is trying to assert that they in Moscow are the bloodline of Viking explorers and traders.

Volkonski wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 2:58 pm Their status is because they have nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver those weapons.

As long as it is possible that Russia might use nuclear weapons they have the world over a barrel.

As German chancellor Helmut Schmidt famously remarked in the 1970s, they're basically “Upper Volta [now Burkina Faso] with missiles.” Not much else to get excited about.

I'm sure it was considered impossible in his day to actually conquer a country that big and then have enough troops to keep it under control once conquered. I looked it up and the invasion was motivated by a demand that the Russians rejoin an embargo of England, plus some other stuff. He was just carrying through on a threat to make them regret not changing their mind about the blockade.

Apparently, "old Napoleon" was a little like "old Elvis," plump and suffering various maladies and kind of a caricature of his younger self (though old Elvis could certainly put on a hell of a show even shortly before his death).