Russia Invades Ukraine

[John Thomas8]

[Volkonski]

[Volkonski]

[Suranis]

Spoilered for sensitive content:

► Show Spoiler

I don't know who Angry Staffer is, but he seems like he's reliable (is who he claims to be, an intelligence wonk, for one). He asked people not to share a video of a Russian soldier sexually molesting a toddler, and added the same soldier has molested and killed several toddlers.

I 1000 percent agree it shouldn't be all over social media or internet. (Twitter removed it but it's appearing on Telegram.)

That said, Tucker Carlson should have to see it. His reaction would reveal if he has any sense of morality. And in my world, the wrong reaction would have dire consequences for him.

(I have not seen it and will avoid.)

The problem with stuff like that is that its pretty easy to fake, and it's pretty much the oldest form of Propaganda. The Germans filmed "Polish soldiers" "raping" "German Women" at the start of WW2. Its not like destroyed Tanks or atrocities photoed with identifiable ruins of buildings in the background.

And We have plenty of other reasons to despise the Russian Army at this point.

And really, even if it is a real Russian soldier doing it and taking jolly roger videos of himself, we don't need to see that kind of shit. Not to mention sharing it to people exposes them to prosecution, and their computers to confiscation.

[Suranis]

Institute for the study of War assessment of the Russian capability

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... nt-april-9

Short version, not good. Even though US intel says that they have only lost 15% to 20% of their "combat power" it all depends on how you interpret that. If it means that every unit they have has suffered 20% casualties, that means they are effectively crippled as a fighting unit.

Right now the Russians are conscripting like crazy and trying to patch up their units with the survivors, but that only works so far. Men need time to gel together as a unit and learn to work together. Just filling up the units with conscrpts and throwing them at the Ukranians again won't actually improve their combat performance any, even leaving aside that it's illegal in Russian law.

If you read anything in that link, read the section on Morale.

Morale is a key element of combat power, and consistent reports indicate that the morale even of elite Russian units remains very low. A Russian Telegram channel reporting on Pskov, the home of the elite 76th Guards Airborne Division, noted on April 7 that a growing number of paratroopers are refusing to fight.[16] It claimed that many paratroopers have submitted resignation papers, which commanders are refusing to accept. Some soldiers’ families have reportedly appealed to Russian courts to force the Russian military to accept the resignations. The channel claimed on April 6 that 60 paratroopers had refused to fight and were dismissed.[17] The head of the Russian human rights organization Agora reported on April 8 that members of Russia’s National Guard (Rosgvardia) have refused to go to Ukraine or, having gone and come out, are refusing orders to return to the fight.[18] Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) additionally claimed on April 9 that Russian soldiers have been injuring themselves to avoid having to return to combat.[19] The GUR reported on a transcript of a call it claims to have intercepted from a Russian officer to his wife complaining of lack of food, predicting that the war will not go well, and expressing the hope that he will live to draw his pension.[20] The GUR also reported that an elite Russian SPETSNAZ unit that had fought in Syria refused to continue fighting in Mariupol after suffering 30 casualties between April 2 and April 4.[21] We have previously reported other instances of Russian soldiers and units refusing orders to fight or return to Ukraine after being pulled back.[22]

Most of these reports are anecdotal and unconfirmed, but the picture they paint is coherent and accords with the observable performance of the Russian military in Ukraine to date. The Russians technically have enough healthy soldiers with weapons to pose a significant threat to eastern Ukraine, and they may wear down the Ukrainian defenders by sheer weight of numbers, although likely at a hideous cost. But all indications are that the effective combat power of Russian reinforcements that might go to eastern Ukraine will be a small fraction of what the number of soldiers and units would indicate, and the outcome of the fight is therefore far from clear. It is important to avoid allowing the shorthand DoD briefers and others understandably use to describe available Russian forces to lead to exaggerated estimates of the actual military capabilities of Russian forces.

We are talking a timeframe of months or years for Russia to recover to the point that they were at when the war began.

[Suranis]

Great thread on the continuing logistical difficulties the russians are having, and a major cause is the refusal of Ukranian cities to fall.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513 ... 02246.html

[Volkonski]

[Dave from down under]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-11/ ... /100980604

US expects brutality from Russia's new war commander
We're seeing reports that Russia has appointed General Alexander Dvornikov to oversee the war on Ukraine — up until now, Russia had no central war commander on the ground.

His appointment was confirmed by a senior US official who was not authorised to be identified and spoke to the Associated Press on the condition of anonymity.
The US is expecting brutality from the new general.

Here's White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on this:

"No appointment of any general can erase the fact that Russia has already faced a strategic failure in Ukraine.

"This general will just be another author of crimes and brutality against Ukrainian civilians.

And here's White House press secretary Jen Psaki:

"The reports we're seeing of a change in military leadership and putting a general in charge who was responsible for the brutality and the atrocities we saw in Syria shows that there's going to be a continuation of what we've already seen on the ground in Ukraine and that's what we are expecting."

General Dvornikov fought during the second war in Chechnya and took several top positions before being placed in charge of the Russian troops in Syria.

Under his command, Russian forces in Syria were known for destroying cities, lobbing artillery and dropping what were often crudely made barrel bombs in sustained attacks that have displaced millions of Syrian civilians.

The United Nations says the more than decade-long war has killed more than 350,000 people.

Fares al-Bayoush, a Syrian army defector, says he is a "war criminal":

“I expected him to use the scorched earth policy that was used in Syria," he told the Associated Press.

“He has very good experience in this policy.”

In 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded General Dvornikov the Hero of Russia medal, one of the country's highest awards.

He has served as the commander of the Southern Military District since 2016.

[Gregg]

I'd so like to see him the 8th General killed by Ukranian commandos.

Find the Antennas and BRDM go boom.

[Dave from down under]

I'd so like to see him the 8th General killed by Ukranian commandos.

Find the Antennas and BRDM go boom.

If ever I was commanding OPFOR…
1st order of the day…
2m lengths of heavy gauge fencing wire welded to everything that moves and if anything left then to logs etc.,

[Gregg]

I'd so like to see him the 8th General killed by Ukranian commandos.

Find the Antennas and BRDM go boom.

If ever I was commanding OPFOR…
1st order of the day…
2m lengths of heavy gauge fencing wire welded to everything that moves and if anything left then to logs etc.,

Ah, good thought! But would only work a little. One effective way to find the antenna trucks is to home in on radio transmissions, you can't see them until they're in gun range, but you can see their radio signals a lot farther out by using the ADF radio in any aircraft. And that's is super long range when the air is just right. When I was in Panama I could go up and listen the Marty and Joe call games on the ADF, set at 700 which is also the 50,000 watt voice of the Cincinnati Reds. WLW, WGN, KMOX and a few others came in clear as bell on good nights. As military commands tend to do lots of "whew, that was a day, let's talk to everyone and see what the hell happened and what are we gonna do tomorrow" every night, it also radiates all kinds of traffic from the real antenna and the fake ones don't. So we go up in 3 groups of three, thirty miles apart and triangulate a radio signal, then one group stays put to "hold down" the position and the other two go play "pop goes the weasel" or if its a LOT or traffic, call the Air Force to bring in the big tank go boom stuff.

And Air Force raids are how you would target anything bigger than a Battalion on purpose, Colonel Hunting is looking for Battalion Maneuver Group commands and if we stumble on a Regiment or Brigade, double bonus. A division is more than you attack with eggbeaters, they have A LOT of anti aircraft guns and they ain't much against an F-16 but they will ruin a helicopter's day even if it's not Thursday.

Target descriptions, Infantry or Motorized Rifle Regiments

Platoons are commanded by Lieutenants out of their RTOs backpack or maybe a jeep.
Companies are commanded by Captains, in a jeep on the move or a GP Medium Tent with a 5 ton truck as support, enough antenna to target
Battalions are commanded by Lt. Colonels and have the tent, several trucks with the comms hard wired, parked a few yards away from the tent. If they're gonna stay a few days, they'll have bulldozers from engineers dig them a proper bunker.
Regiments, Full Colonels, full bunkers, on the move armored wheeled trucks, several of them, a few security guys tasked to protect the boss.

[Kendra]

[humblescribe]

I wonder what must have been going through the heads of the Russian troops in those tanks when they spotted the tank immediately in front of them going boom.

Didn't they learn anything from the redcoats in 1775?

[John Thomas8]

[W. Kevin Vicklund]

I wonder what must have been going through the heads of the Russian troops in those tanks when they spotted the tank immediately in front of them going boom.

Didn't they learn anything from the redcoats in 1775?

Shrapnel

I'll see myself out...

[Lani]

[Lani]

[Lani]

Don't know if this is true. But hope so.

[Notaperson]

A message (subtitled) from the Ukrainians to Russian soldiers. Worth watching until the end, because it's brutal.

[Slim Cognito]

Scared the crap out of me and I 'm waaaaaay over here in NA.

[Kendra]

Scared the crap out of me and I 'm waaaaaay over here in NA.

In WA state, but yes.

[Gregg]

I'm in love. Someone send me her number.

[Notaperson]

Get in line, Gregg.

Another embarrassment for Russia today. Rumors are it's sinking.

[Gregg]

It was a small fire, started in the kitchen, and now is out...

[raison de arizona]

Well I guess Red Dawn is now a documentary...



I'll see myself out....

Oh no you don't. You sit yourself down, young man, and cue up that DVD.

Now I have to watch (the original) Red Dawn again.