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Russia Invades Ukraine

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Phoenix520
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#851

Post by Phoenix520 »

Bellingcat usually has the real goods.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#852

Post by Kriselda Gray »

neeneko wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 1:00 pm
Kriselda Gray wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:57 pm so are they presuming that his successor would choose to keep a long-running, losing war going? For why?
Institutional inertia? Whoever succeeds Putin will probably need to keep the people Putin put in power happy, as well as tread carefully about openly disagreeing with what Putin did. So they might come in stuck in the same political trap that Putin is in now. Even in authoriatrian regimes, the head is more shaped than shaper.
Very interesting, thanks!
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#853

Post by Mr brolin »

Kriselda Gray wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:25 am
neeneko wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 1:00 pm
Kriselda Gray wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:57 pm so are they presuming that his successor would choose to keep a long-running, losing war going? For why?
Institutional inertia? Whoever succeeds Putin will probably need to keep the people Putin put in power happy, as well as tread carefully about openly disagreeing with what Putin did. So they might come in stuck in the same political trap that Putin is in now. Even in authoriatrian regimes, the head is more shaped than shaper.
Very interesting, thanks!
The problem to a large extent is that once this kicked off, the military and political classes in Russia, whilst in many cases not happy it happened are still bound up in the Great Mother Russia mindset and post WW2 memes..... Such as....

Russia is a great power
Russia and Russians have a history of beating and defeating others militarily
The Russian soldier and citizen can sustain privation in support of the state/Russia to lead to victory
Russian military technology can compete with any other (particularly) Western power military
Western liberal democracies are inherently weak, vacillating, compromised and always take the path of compromise and last resistance

If you look at the world map, as seen by Russia, they don't see Russia, looming over smaller or (perceived) weaker countries and pushing its agenda militarily and economically.

No, from a Russian perspective they see Russia being hemmed along all its borders by antithetical organisations, economic associations and military alliances from the EU to NATO to China to ASEAN that are out to reduce Russia to a 3rd tier country.

Having Ukraine humiliate Russia by not just still fighting but taking the fight to Russian forces AND being fed militarily by the EU,NATO, the UK and US feeds right into that mindset.

"Losing" for various values of losing will push back against a set of core identities that are seen as part of Russian identity so, simply introducing Putin to circa 115 grains of copper jacketed lead at 1100 fps won't cure the problem without a semi graceful exit path that can be swallowed without breaking the mindset.....

Of course, as with any opinion on the InterTubes, worth exactly what you paid for it..... :twisted:
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#854

Post by bill_g »

Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say

Ukrainian forces have seized part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal its military secrets, reports say.

The Krasukha-4 command module was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv partly damaged but otherwise intact, The Times of London reported.



Sounds like gross incompetence by the Russian troops for leaving the thing intact. They should have burnt it to the ground as they retreated.

Or, it's not what it seems.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#855

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#856

Post by Chilidog »

bill_g wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:09 am Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say

Ukrainian forces have seized part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal its military secrets, reports say.

The Krasukha-4 command module was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv partly damaged but otherwise intact, The Times of London reported.



Sounds like gross incompetence by the Russian troops for leaving the thing intact. They should have burnt it to the ground as they retreated.

Or, it's not what it seems.
i think the issue here is that would have meant that someone would have had to take the initiative and take a drastic action without prior approval and authorization from a superior officer.

Not only is that not going to happen in the Russian military, but, as we have seen, their communication systems are severely compromised.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#857

Post by bill_g »

Chilidog wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:14 am
i think the issue here is that would have meant that someone would have had to take the initiative and take a drastic action without prior approval and authorization from a superior officer.

Not only is that not going to happen in the Russian military, but, as we have seen, their communication systems are severely compromised.
Perhaps. Two things the Air Force trained us on was how to secure our equipment, and how to destroy it.

We were reminded that if the base was overrun, we were already dead. So, from that point forward our mission was not to secure the base, but to destroy as much as we could with thermite grenades. Burn down our maintenance shop. Burn down aircraft. Do as much damage as possible.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#858

Post by Chilidog »

in Russia, they are never overrun

except by 🥔
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#859

Post by Slim Cognito »

Chilidog wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:12 pm in Russia, they are never overrun

except by 🥔
As Colbert would say, "Eeees potato."
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#860

Post by Suranis »

Cyberwarfare heats up

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#861

Post by neeneko »

bill_g wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 pm Perhaps. Two things the Air Force trained us on was how to secure our equipment, and how to destroy it.
I gather one of the big historical issues with the russian military is that it focuses on explicit commands rather than procedures and protocols, so soldiers do not do things unless told to do it at the moment and are much less set up for operating on the fly based off standing orders.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#862

Post by Gregg »

neeneko wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:11 pm
bill_g wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 pm Perhaps. Two things the Air Force trained us on was how to secure our equipment, and how to destroy it.
I gather one of the big historical issues with the russian military is that it focuses on explicit commands rather than procedures and protocols, so soldiers do not do things unless told to do it at the moment and are much less set up for operating on the fly based off standing orders.
:yeahthat:

Back when I flew the GPS systems on our aircraft were fairly advanced for the time (a system as good or better would cost almost $500 now, go figure) and I was instructed that if ever in a crash and the need arose to abandon the aircraft in possibly unfriendly territory, I was to destroy that GPS at all cost. Screw the 3 million helicopter, they wanted me to blow up the radio, which is what I did and when I was debriefed the thing they were most concerned about was the GPS. They spent 30 minutes talking about the helicopter, 2 days asking about the GPS, to make absolutely certain I had destroyed it. how I had destroyed it, where I put the C4, how much C4 did I use, did I see the damaged unit after I had blown it up, how sure was I it was completely destroyed. Were the circuit boards visible, did they look salvageable? It was really kind of annoying and even now, considering the only thing that makes it better than one I can buy for fifty bucks at Best Buy is it was aviation rated.

I was a 1LT in my 20's and there wasn't any question I was supposed to do something, that in the Russian Aviation Corps, after the crash was confirmed would have taken a direct order from a Field Grade officer who would have surely consulted with a General officer and it would have taken 24 hours. That's just how the Russian military worked then, and I'm not surprised to know its still like that.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#863

Post by AndyinPA »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ve-updates
An alleged poisoning targeting, apparently, one of the country’s best known international figures. Such a story could only really involve Russia, the state accused of being behind dozens of poisonings over the past century.

The plot, in its initial telling, appears bizarre: Roman Abramovich, now the outgoing owner of Chelsea FC, and Ukrainian negotiators engaged in back channel talks were targeted after a meeting in Kyiv – developing symptoms including peeling skin, irritable eyes and were, it is said, painfully crying.

Can we be sure they were poisoned? Not really; the three men were too busy to provide samples to German toxicologists quickly enough. And their symptoms, never life threatening, appear to have improved. So like a true Russian mystery, the truth may never be known.

But the Kremlin has enough form in this area for poisoning to be a plausible cause, a hundred-year history that dates back to the founding of Moscow’s Lab X poisoning laboratory by Vladimir Lenin back in 1921.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#864

Post by RVInit »

This is an older but interesting thread. I can't recall if anyone already posted this. If so, I apologize for the repeat.

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#865

Post by Suranis »

Now THAT was a good read. Here's a thread unroll of it

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497 ... 15204.html

I did a summary of it for another site that you can read if you like.

This is a really interesting thread, written on the 27th of February, talking about why Russia was going to lose this war


TLDR - the man that was reforming the army, Serdyukov, was forced out in 2012 That guy was fighting the People who were supplying and building the Army, and thereby making powerful enemies. He was replaced by Shoygu. Shoygu was a man who has been continuously in the cabinet since 1991, so he was a man who could play politics and knew not to piss off powerful interests, like army suppliers and and arms manufacturers. He also knew how to put the best spin forward on everything, and since he is not an Ethnic Russian he was no threat to Putin, as there was no way a man not of ethic Russian ancestry could assume the Leadership.

He also was the guy that has not been seen in weeks and has recently been said to be suffering from a heart attack.

Then there was a long discussion about the Split between being Navy Focused and Land Focused. The USSR could (sort of) do both, but in general you cant. Russia is not rich enough to do both but its still trying to, and is burning up massive resources trying. And its main shipbuilding facilities are in Ukraine. So the resources and money were not going to the army that needed it as it was always being siphoned off to maintain the Soviet Navy.

Third, Putin actually did not plan this as a war. He wanted a short sharp "Special Operation." He simply did not anticipate the opposition fighting back. He was used to doing big showy operations against people who had no chance to win, such as Chechnya, Georgia, Syria.

When you do a blitzkrieg the first echelon charges forward and leaves opposition behind it. That's where the second, then third Echelons come in. Those are supposed to deal with the forces in the rear. But in this case there were no second and third Echelons. It was too early for this writer to say how this was going to turn out (remember he was posting this on the 27th of February) But its obvious that this "special operation" was hamstrung by the forces they left behind on their mad push into Ukraine.

Getting back to Putin, every tome he needed to prove his Alpha Status he would crush some small country with his big hammer, and then strut around the World stage. He actually did it to Ukraine in 2014 and was confident he could do it again whenever he wanted to. These "special operations" didn't require any special preparations as what the fuck are these countries gonna do? They were no threat, so there was no need to put the work into getting things ready. Just toss the army at the pip squeaks and bask in the glory. No risk = no need to bother.

The problem is that he didn't finish the Ukrainians in 2014. The Ukrainians looked at what happened, and realized a few things. They released that they had fuck all army and needed to arm up fast, as they knew Putin was going to come again. Putin had easily crushed their army, so there was no reason for him not to. So they sorted out their internal problems (nothing makes people resolve differences like an external threat) and built up a regular army pretty much from nothing. The "Court Politics" factions lost power an the Efficiency people gained power. People fought Arms suppliers for cheaper munitions without fear of getting stabbed in the back.

"I'll be frank. Today we have no army. Now we can assemble a group of 5 thousand capable soldiers max [out of 125 on paper]"

- reported minister of defence in 2014

Their equipment was awful, all soviet era rubbish that barely worked. They fired 125 anti-tank missiles in 2014 and none of them worked. Their radios didn't work. Etc etc.

Long story short, they instituted drafts an they worked hard on getting better equipment. Details at the link.

Anyway, Putin's Blitzkrieg did not work as there was no second and third echelon as Putin didn't think he would need them. And now he is in the first real war of his life, and he, Putin, has no real idea how to fight a real war. He was so convinced that it would be a repeat of 2014 that he planned for this and though he would be able to strut around the world again in a week.

Being written in the 27th, the author does not comment here on how the Russian army got isolated and their supplies got cut. It also explains how the Russians clumped together rather than spread out to avoid artillery fire, as really the Modern Soviet army has never had to face counter artillery fire.

Anyway, I guess I've talked too much. Read the thread its really interesting and detailed and it explains a hell of a lot.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#866

Post by Notaperson »

Sounds like it could be a positive development...

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#867

Post by Notaperson »

Putin publicly acknowledges he is being defeated...

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#868

Post by Slim Cognito »

It would be nice but I don't think it will ever be over, at least not as long as Putin breathes. Sadly, Zelensky will have a bounty on his head until the day bc he made Putin look weak.

What would he settle for? The eastern Russian-aligned regions, acknowledgement that Crimea is Russian and Ukraine never joins NATO? I don't see that being enough for that psycho.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#869

Post by neeneko »

Slim Cognito wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:52 pm What would he settle for? The eastern Russian-aligned regions, acknowledgement that Crimea is Russian and Ukraine never joins NATO? I don't see that being enough for that psycho.
I could see Putin taking that kind of deal. Ukraine would struggle to rebuild while Russia, since it took no damage itself and does not really invest much in satellite areas outside resource extraction will probably be able to rearm quicker, and then might try to finish the job after a few years of grey zone stuff and making it look like Ukraine wants to join them after all.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#870

Post by pipistrelle »

My sense is this is a delaying tactic to allow Russia to regroup. If I were Ukraine or Europe, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#871

Post by Suranis »

Now that they have gotten their ass kicked in central Ukraine, they will retreat into Donbas, and then they will scream about how Ukraine is invading a peaceful independent country that is one month and 3 days old.

And continue to get their ass kicked, becasue suddenly No-one is scared of them anymore.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#872

Post by New Turtle »

Zelensky won't give up any territory unless these regions put it to a vote and say they want to join Russia. Meanwhile, people are getting shipped to gulag from there and I'm sure RU is trying to hire Manafort or worse to help their "campaign"
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#873

Post by John Thomas8 »

Suranis wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:05 am

Being written in the 27th, the author does not comment here on how the Russian army got isolated and their supplies got cut. It also explains how the Russians clumped together rather than spread out to avoid artillery fire, as really the Modern Soviet army has never had to face counter artillery fire.

Anyway, I guess I've talked too much. Read the thread its really interesting and detailed and it explains a hell of a lot.
How they got isolated? The follow on echelons failed, allowing what army the Ukranians have and partisans to almost completely disrupt the supply chain for the first wave. Modern combined arms relies heavily on constant resupply to be effective.

It appears, from outside observation, that the Mighty Russian Bear is for the most part a Yogi, poorly equipped and ineptly led.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#874

Post by Foggy »

My father is old. Really old. But he did spend a career in the Navy and a second one in the defense industry, and he talks to the people he knows who are still around. He told me he was shocked that Kyiv didn't fall in 3 days. He thought there was a real Mighty Russian Bear too also.

But it's not over yet. I still think when Putin's back is against the wall he's going to do something crazy.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#875

Post by Slim Cognito »

This is my fear.
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