Foggy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:21 am
Good lord, I start a new thread about the use of high-tech in the war, and MN-Skeptic posts evidence that the Russian Army is more low-tech than in WWII?
That is totally fascinating too also. How the heck can an army be low-tech in the freakin' 21st century?
Reserve units that might not have them.
Even further, reserve units that paid for them, but upper levels of both command and the suppliers thought they'd never need them so basically stole the money and gave them the leftover mid Cold War stuff that was still new in a warehouse and still state of the art had they ever wanted to join in the Vietnam War.
Supreme Commander, Imperial Illuminati Air Force
You don't have to consent, but I'm gonna tase you anyway.
Suranis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:36 pm
I put URL tags around that youtube video to stop it autoloading. It's up to you if you want to look at it.
Thanks, that is appreciated.
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
Gordon Corera @gordoncorera wrote:
NEW - Russian commanders have been killed after they felt they had to move closer to the front lines, western officials say. Deputy Commander of the 41st combined arms Army killed by sniper fire. A divisional commander and a regimental commander also killed.
Russian commanders moving further forward to get more control and impetus behind operations which have, in some cases, badly stalled. Those commanders are trying to impose their own personality on the battlefield but this in turn, is placing them at greater risk, w. officials say
► Show Spoiler
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
So to summarize the thoughts in my dinky brainbone, the Russians are having real trouble completing the conquest of Ukraine, but they might have plenty more resources. Or not, nobody seems to know, but they're using up a lot of ammunition and equipment. So the war could be stalled, or Russia could even capture several major cities and still not fully subdue the Ukrainians, and the fighting could go on for many months.
Meanwhile, the economic sanctions are going to cause devastation in the Russian economy, IMHO. We've never seen anything quite like this, where basically the whole world unites to punish an economy that was a little smaller than Italy's, and badly mismanaged at that. That part is going to get ugly, and it will probably have great impact on the military part.
So Putin shoots a lot of missles to capture Kyiv and Kharkiv and places. Can he replace those missiles? Can he pay his soldiers? Can they transport fuel and food and ammo and so forth to the troops in Ukraine, when the ruble is worthless?
And Putin seems to care not a whit about the economic suffering of his people. He won't miss any meals, so that settles that.
If I had to guess today, I'd say 1) Putin will not give up until he has conquered Ukraine, and economic sanctions will not deter him, but 2) the economic sanctions will severely damage the Russian economy long-term, and 3) the only real alternative is military action against Russia, which might be a bad idea, in that it could lead to WWIII.
I'm against WWIII.
I'm Foggy and I forget if I approved this message.
Here’s what I don’t get…we’ve heard that from the time of Putin’s ascension to now, nothing BIG happened without his implicit or explicit say-so. He turned away from the looting oligarchs or gave them helpful suggestions on how to consolidate; demanded his cut; did what the oligarchs did and enriched himself even if he was to busy to achieve their level of ostentatiousness. He ran the whole show…right?
So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? Is everything we think we know about how Russia operates based on bs?
ETA I believe (hope, maybe is a better word, but it’s a strong hope, full of conviction), on no overt evidence whatsoever, that Putin will be taken out by friendly fire once he gets to his point of no return. I don’t believe his command structure is bent on suicide yet.
With so much sadness about Ukraine, wanted to post something happy on Twitter. Posted Nina West's Blue's Clues Parade and Nina retweeted it And good article about gay Ukrainian soldiers.
Nina West Retweeted OrlyLicious @Orly_licious·3h Normal 8%
Ukraine's LGBTQ soldiers hope their service will change hearts & minds: https://nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ukr ... ts-n822291…. With all the #Ukraine sadness, here's something happy: #BluesClues Pride Parade with @NinaWest celebrating families, diversity, and tolerance. “Love is love is love you see..."
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:02 pm
So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? Is everything we think we know about how Russia operates based on bs?
Since military spending is such a big deal in Russia, I imagine that the money spent is a prime source of revenue for the oligarchs. There will be graft and corruption. Shortcuts will be taken and contracts won't be fulfilled to the level promised. But every soldier, all the way up the ladder, knows to not complain. And every reporting level will paint the rosiest picture to the next level above. What is the alternative? The generals may or may not realize the level of degradation, but they certainly won't inform Putin of that! They'll just make sure that appearances are kept up, the facade remains in place. Their jobs depend on it.
Tim Walz’ Golden Rule: Mind your own damn business!
Foggy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:55 pm
And Putin seems to care not a whit about the economic suffering of his people. He won't miss any meals, so that settles that.
If I had to guess today, I'd say 1) Putin will not give up until he has conquered Ukraine, and economic sanctions will not deter him, but 2) the economic sanctions will severely damage the Russian economy long-term, and 3) the only real alternative is military action against Russia, which might be a bad idea, in that it could lead to WWIII.
This is the classic issue of dictatorships and resource based economies. Putin doesn't care because, well, 'the people' just are not a very big contributor to the economy. As long as he can sell oil and natural gas, he and the people who are needed to keep him in power can continue to live in luxury. You only have to look at DPRK to see how stable things can be when the general population isn't a source of wealth for a country.
orlylicious wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:03 pm
With so much sadness about Ukraine, wanted to post something happy on Twitter. Posted Nina West's Blue's Clues Parade and Nina retweeted it And good article about gay Ukrainian soldiers.
Nina West Retweeted OrlyLicious @Orly_licious·3h Normal 8%
Ukraine's LGBTQ soldiers hope their service will change hearts & minds: https://nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ukr ... ts-n822291…. With all the #Ukraine sadness, here's something happy: #BluesClues Pride Parade with @NinaWest celebrating families, diversity, and tolerance. “Love is love is love you see..."
Off Topic
Our little town is having its gay pride weekend celebration starting tomorrow with a parade, a block party and, later at the local gay club, an incredible drag show featuring winners from Ru Paul's Drag Race. I'm dressing up and planning on having the time of my life. I have got to get this horrible, no good, very bad last few weeks off my brain for a little while.
Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:02 pm
Here’s what I don’t get…we’ve heard that from the time of Putin’s ascension to now, nothing BIG happened without his implicit or explicit say-so. He turned away from the looting oligarchs or gave them helpful suggestions on how to consolidate; demanded his cut; did what the oligarchs did and enriched himself even if he was to busy to achieve their level of ostentatiousness. He ran the whole show…right?
So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? Is everything we think we know about how Russia operates based on bs?
ETA I believe (hope, maybe is a better word, but it’s a strong hope, full of conviction), on no overt evidence whatsoever, that Putin will be taken out by friendly fire once he gets to his point of no return. I don’t believe his command structure is bent on suicide yet.
Hubris? Narcissism? Loss of contact with reality secondary to overlapping lip prints on his ass? All of the above?
Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:02 pm
So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? I
AFAIK Putin is not a military guy, he's an intelligence and covert-operations guy.
maintaining a usable military requires training, maintenance, and testing. Actually standing up an army to fight is a huge logistical effort ("an army fights on its stomach")
It is plausible to me that Putin left this to his generals, and his generals were thinking 'we're Russia, we'll never have to actually FIGHT' so the funding was ripe for the taking.
Decades of stasis have surely reinforced the idea that this is the way things work.
neeneko wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:48 pm
This is the classic issue of dictatorships and resource based economies. Putin doesn't care because, well, 'the people' just are not a very big contributor to the economy. As long as he can sell oil and natural gas, he and the people who are needed to keep him in power can continue to live in luxury.
But didn't we learn this week that he can't sell oil and natural gas, maybe not at any price? I read that buyers were refusing to buy Russian oil. That's around here somewhere.
I'm Foggy and I forget if I approved this message.
They think this method was likely used thousands of years ago to move things long distances. Stonehenge comes to mind.
"Choose your leaders with wisdom and forethought. To be led by a coward is to be controlled by all that the coward fears… To be led by a liar is to ask to be told lies." -Octavia E. Butler
Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:02 pm
So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? I
AFAIK Putin is not a military guy, he's an intelligence and covert-operations guy.
maintaining a usable military requires training, maintenance, and testing. Actually standing up an army to fight is a huge logistical effort ("an army fights on its stomach")
It is plausible to me that Putin left this to his generals, and his generals were thinking 'we're Russia, we'll never have to actually FIGHT' so the funding was ripe for the taking.
Decades of stasis have surely reinforced the idea that this is the way things work.
Supreme Commander, Imperial Illuminati Air Force
You don't have to consent, but I'm gonna tase you anyway.