Russia Invades Ukraine

[Suranis]

https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/statu ... 9402069007

Angry Staffer@Angry_Staffer

Some absolutely brutal video coming out of Hostomel this morning.

Destroyed vehicles everywhere, Russian corpses literally all over the street. Bodies half blown out of turrets, etc.

I’m obviously not going to share, but wow. That fight did not go well for them.

Hundreds of people asked me to share this so folks can better understand the horrors of war, so here goes.

CONTENT WARNING: dead bodies, mutilated bodies, blood

I’ve seen a lot of this kind of thing, and this is rough. You’ve been warned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG1XTsfPT8E

Yes. As of this morning, US intel assessed that they’ve committed 92% of the troops that were on the border.

They’re also bringing in more armor from the Far East - their losses must be enormous.

I think perhaps the most disturbing part of all of this is that Russia just leaves their dead on the street.

We’ll move heaven and earth in an attempt to bring our fallen home.

Stark contrast between “no man left behind” and “leave him there, or toss him in the incinerator.”

I put URL tags around that youtube video to stop it autoloading. It's up to you if you want to look at it.

[Gregg]

Good lord, I start a new thread about the use of high-tech in the war, and MN-Skeptic posts evidence that the Russian Army is more low-tech than in WWII?

That is totally fascinating too also. How the heck can an army be low-tech in the freakin' 21st century?

Reserve units that might not have them.
Even further, reserve units that paid for them, but upper levels of both command and the suppliers thought they'd never need them so basically stole the money and gave them the leftover mid Cold War stuff that was still new in a warehouse and still state of the art had they ever wanted to join in the Vietnam War.

[raison de arizona]

I put URL tags around that youtube video to stop it autoloading. It's up to you if you want to look at it.

Thanks, that is appreciated.

[raison de arizona]

NEW - Russian commanders have been killed after they felt they had to move closer to the front lines, western officials say. Deputy Commander of the 41st combined arms Army killed by sniper fire. A divisional commander and a regimental commander also killed.

Russian commanders moving further forward to get more control and impetus behind operations which have, in some cases, badly stalled. Those commanders are trying to impose their own personality on the battlefield but this in turn, is placing them at greater risk, w. officials say

► Show Spoiler

[Foggy]

So to summarize the thoughts in my dinky brainbone, the Russians are having real trouble completing the conquest of Ukraine, but they might have plenty more resources. Or not, nobody seems to know, but they're using up a lot of ammunition and equipment. So the war could be stalled, or Russia could even capture several major cities and still not fully subdue the Ukrainians, and the fighting could go on for many months.

Meanwhile, the economic sanctions are going to cause devastation in the Russian economy, IMHO. We've never seen anything quite like this, where basically the whole world unites to punish an economy that was a little smaller than Italy's, and badly mismanaged at that. That part is going to get ugly, and it will probably have great impact on the military part.

So Putin shoots a lot of missles to capture Kyiv and Kharkiv and places. Can he replace those missiles? Can he pay his soldiers? Can they transport fuel and food and ammo and so forth to the troops in Ukraine, when the ruble is worthless?

And Putin seems to care not a whit about the economic suffering of his people. He won't miss any meals, so that settles that.

If I had to guess today, I'd say 1) Putin will not give up until he has conquered Ukraine, and economic sanctions will not deter him, but 2) the economic sanctions will severely damage the Russian economy long-term, and 3) the only real alternative is military action against Russia, which might be a bad idea, in that it could lead to WWIII.

I'm against WWIII.

[Phoenix520]

Here’s what I don’t get…we’ve heard that from the time of Putin’s ascension to now, nothing BIG happened without his implicit or explicit say-so. He turned away from the looting oligarchs or gave them helpful suggestions on how to consolidate; demanded his cut; did what the oligarchs did and enriched himself even if he was to busy to achieve their level of ostentatiousness. He ran the whole show…right?

So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? Is everything we think we know about how Russia operates based on bs?

ETA I believe (hope, maybe is a better word, but it’s a strong hope, full of conviction), on no overt evidence whatsoever, that Putin will be taken out by friendly fire once he gets to his point of no return. I don’t believe his command structure is bent on suicide yet.

[Luke]

With so much sadness about Ukraine, wanted to post something happy on Twitter. Posted Nina West's Blue's Clues Parade and Nina retweeted it And good article about gay Ukrainian soldiers.

Nina West Retweeted OrlyLicious @Orly_licious·3h Normal 8%

Ukraine's LGBTQ soldiers hope their service will change hearts & minds: https://nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ukr ... ts-n822291…. With all the #Ukraine sadness, here's something happy: #BluesClues Pride Parade‍ with @NinaWest celebrating families, diversity, and tolerance. “Love is love is love you see..."

[poplove]

That's the Lady Liberty statue in Las Vegas.

Thanks!

I drive by her on Fridays. She usually wears a Golden Knights jersey. She also wore a mask for a while.

Update: I drove by her this morning and she was in her normal state with nothing extra on her.

[MN-Skeptic]

So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? Is everything we think we know about how Russia operates based on bs?

Since military spending is such a big deal in Russia, I imagine that the money spent is a prime source of revenue for the oligarchs. There will be graft and corruption. Shortcuts will be taken and contracts won't be fulfilled to the level promised. But every soldier, all the way up the ladder, knows to not complain. And every reporting level will paint the rosiest picture to the next level above. What is the alternative? The generals may or may not realize the level of degradation, but they certainly won't inform Putin of that! They'll just make sure that appearances are kept up, the facade remains in place. Their jobs depend on it.

[Volkonski]

[neeneko]

And Putin seems to care not a whit about the economic suffering of his people. He won't miss any meals, so that settles that.

If I had to guess today, I'd say 1) Putin will not give up until he has conquered Ukraine, and economic sanctions will not deter him, but 2) the economic sanctions will severely damage the Russian economy long-term, and 3) the only real alternative is military action against Russia, which might be a bad idea, in that it could lead to WWIII.

This is the classic issue of dictatorships and resource based economies. Putin doesn't care because, well, 'the people' just are not a very big contributor to the economy. As long as he can sell oil and natural gas, he and the people who are needed to keep him in power can continue to live in luxury. You only have to look at DPRK to see how stable things can be when the general population isn't a source of wealth for a country.

[Slim Cognito]

With so much sadness about Ukraine, wanted to post something happy on Twitter. Posted Nina West's Blue's Clues Parade and Nina retweeted it And good article about gay Ukrainian soldiers.

Nina West Retweeted OrlyLicious @Orly_licious·3h Normal 8%

Ukraine's LGBTQ soldiers hope their service will change hearts & minds: https://nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ukr ... ts-n822291…. With all the #Ukraine sadness, here's something happy: #BluesClues Pride Parade‍ with @NinaWest celebrating families, diversity, and tolerance. “Love is love is love you see..."

Off Topic

Our little town is having its gay pride weekend celebration starting tomorrow with a parade, a block party and, later at the local gay club, an incredible drag show featuring winners from Ru Paul's Drag Race. I'm dressing up and planning on having the time of my life. I have got to get this horrible, no good, very bad last few weeks off my brain for a little while.

[Slim Cognito]

Here’s what I don’t get…we’ve heard that from the time of Putin’s ascension to now, nothing BIG happened without his implicit or explicit say-so. He turned away from the looting oligarchs or gave them helpful suggestions on how to consolidate; demanded his cut; did what the oligarchs did and enriched himself even if he was to busy to achieve their level of ostentatiousness. He ran the whole show…right?

So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? Is everything we think we know about how Russia operates based on bs?

ETA I believe (hope, maybe is a better word, but it’s a strong hope, full of conviction), on no overt evidence whatsoever, that Putin will be taken out by friendly fire once he gets to his point of no return. I don’t believe his command structure is bent on suicide yet.

Hubris? Narcissism? Loss of contact with reality secondary to overlapping lip prints on his ass? All of the above?

[tek]

So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? I

AFAIK Putin is not a military guy, he's an intelligence and covert-operations guy.

maintaining a usable military requires training, maintenance, and testing. Actually standing up an army to fight is a huge logistical effort ("an army fights on its stomach")

It is plausible to me that Putin left this to his generals, and his generals were thinking 'we're Russia, we'll never have to actually FIGHT' so the funding was ripe for the taking.

Decades of stasis have surely reinforced the idea that this is the way things work.

[Foggy]

This is the classic issue of dictatorships and resource based economies. Putin doesn't care because, well, 'the people' just are not a very big contributor to the economy. As long as he can sell oil and natural gas, he and the people who are needed to keep him in power can continue to live in luxury.

But didn't we learn this week that he can't sell oil and natural gas, maybe not at any price? I read that buyers were refusing to buy Russian oil. That's around here somewhere.

[Chilidog]

Back to the truck tires.

[humblescribe]

. . . Because nothing runs like a Deere.

[Volkonski]

Don't know where or when this photo was taken. It shows soldiers attempting to use a corduroy road to move vehicles thru mud.

Corduroy roads were used extensively during the American Civil War. Of course the heaviest vehicles then were wooden wagons and caissons.

[Volkonski]

[Foggy]

Corduroy roads like that were used by the British in the run-up to the Battle of Saratoga, too also.


But I have no idea how a horsie is supposed to keep good footing on a surface like that. That's gotta be brutal on the horsies.

[AndyinPA]

They think this method was likely used thousands of years ago to move things long distances. Stonehenge comes to mind.

[chancery]

Corduroy roads like that were used by the British in the run-up to the Battle of Saratoga, too also.


But I have no idea how a horsie is supposed to keep good footing on a surface like that. That's gotta be brutal on the horsies.

General Sherman's engineers famously were able to build 10-14 miles of corduroys per day as his armies rampaged through the Carolinas in 1865.

[Gregg]

So how did he miss the military degrading to such a degree? Is he really so out of reality that he didn’t know? I

AFAIK Putin is not a military guy, he's an intelligence and covert-operations guy.

maintaining a usable military requires training, maintenance, and testing. Actually standing up an army to fight is a huge logistical effort ("an army fights on its stomach")

It is plausible to me that Putin left this to his generals, and his generals were thinking 'we're Russia, we'll never have to actually FIGHT' so the funding was ripe for the taking.

Decades of stasis have surely reinforced the idea that this is the way things work.

[keith]

Corduroy roads like that were used by the British in the run-up to the Battle of Saratoga, too also.


But I have no idea how a horsie is supposed to keep good footing on a surface like that. That's gotta be brutal on the horsies.

General Sherman's engineers famously were able to build 10-14 miles of corduroys per day as his armies rampaged through the Carolinas in 1865.

And probably the horses were off to the side assuming there was stable ground there. Or maybe they had planks on top of the logs?

[Dave from down under]

Quick google search shows horses using such roadways - usually you use brush/branches between the logs

ww1 horse artillery corduroy