Russia Invades Ukraine

[Suranis]

What happened to Russia's Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

Possibilities from my non expert ass;

(a) They cant afford to fly them
(b) They cant afford to arm them
(c) They cant afford to lose them
(d) They never had that many to begin with
(e) The pilots are telling their commanders to fuck off, and if they don't like it to fly the planes themselves, or
(f) All of the above.

[Suranis]

Ukraine’s Air Force, along with units of the army and territorial defense, destroyed a large Russian military convoy near the city of Bashtanka in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region.

Military bloggers reported that the convoy contained up to 800 vehicles.

I'd knock that total down by 90% at least. Hell even dropping it by 95% and accepting that they destroyed 40 vehicles would be a massive victory. 800? Total bullshit. Sorry. The "Military Bloggers," whoever they are, don't have a fucking clue what they are talking about and are probably lying.

There probably was a serious strike on a convoy and then someone got overexcited or wanted to get some propoganda going. But there is a reason that truth is the first casualty in war.

If the Ukrainians had enough firepower to destroy 800 vehicles, and the ability to concentrate it on one place to hit a single convoy, they would be using it on the forces surrounding and pounding Karchiv right now.

[Dave from down under]

Definitely could be all of the above reasons for holding back the aircraft.

It could also be that they are waiting to see if anyone in the West tries to impose a no-fly…

In which case having those air assets fresh might be essential.

[New Turtle]

Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko
In case you were interested, this is how a sealed subway station look like in Kyiv.
The Soviets designed them as potential nuclear war vaults. Now our metro protects us form the new Soviets.

7:24 AM · Mar 1, 2022

[RVInit]

[raison de arizona]

I was trying to find other confirmation for that tweet from The Kyiv Independent. Nobody else is reporting this. I hope it's true, but there is so much noise out there, it's hard to believe.

They have reported that Russia has lost over 5,000 troops. But fewer than 200 Ukrainians are reported to have been killed. I don't know what to think about what is being reported by this twitter account.

To the best of my understanding, Kyiv Independent's loss numbers come from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. They are the so-called "official" Ukrainian numbers. They also tend to be in the neighborhood of 3x-4x the numbers estimated by other reliable sources, such as those at the Pentagon.

So yeah, a certain degree of propaganda coming from there I'm sure. Outright fabrications? I dunno.

Wow.

Volunteer nearly killed while recording a video message.

Inside Edition produced a good piece yesterday.

► Show Spoiler

[neeneko]

Could we have vastly overestimated Russia’s military strength? That would be nice.

Probably to a degree, but given Putin's paranoia, Russia could also be holding back its air power for an anticipated attack on the motherland. If the invasion really goes badly and Ukraine takes the offensive, that not only puts the eastern break away territories but Crimea back in play, and with troops on the move, Putin might be planning based off the idea that Ukraine would counter invade.

[Suranis]

Eh? Ukraine Counter-invading Russia? I'm sorry, you don't go from planning a quick decapitation move, based on the premise of a country being weak and powerless, to planning for that same country attacking you. And the best way of ensuring against a counter attack is destroying the material of the other country when you have the power to do it.

AND invading Russia would wind up with the biggest problem everyone faces - Russia is VAST. It is well beyond the ability of a smallish country like Ukraine.

Sorry, that thought has not entered Putin's head. It's hilarious to even contemplate it as a reason for Putin holding back.

Its far more likely that the snangled mess that is Russian communications would mean that they could not guarantee not shooting theor own fucking troops, and the troops have no way of calling guiding them to the right targets when they get there. Or hell the possibility a Ukrainian could jam out the Russian comms and have them shelling Russian units.

[Kendra]

[Kendra]

Don't know if this is confirmed, so big grain of salt and all.

[neeneko]

Sorry, that thought has not entered Putin's head. It's hilarious to even contemplate it as a reason for Putin holding back.

I was not thinking about a full scale invasion of Russia, more of a Yalu river situation. One of Putin's big fears is of troops on the Russian border taking chunks of Russia to create their own buffers. He might be esp worried about Ukraine pressing the advantage and retaking Crimea, or even worse pushing south towards Georgia. If he thinks in terms of buffers, he must be worried that others will too.

[Chilidog]

FWIW, the UA has fired a couple of short range ballistic missiles at an air base in Russian territory.

One got through and one plane was damaged / destroyed.

[Foggy]

earth.jpg

[Slim Cognito]

Ukraine’s Air Force, along with units of the army and territorial defense, destroyed a large Russian military convoy near the city of Bashtanka in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region.

Military bloggers reported that the convoy contained up to 800 vehicles.

I'd knock that total down by 90% at least. Hell even dropping it by 95% and accepting that they destroyed 40 vehicles would be a massive victory. 800? Total bullshit. Sorry. The "Military Bloggers," whoever they are, don't have a fucking clue what they are talking about and are probably lying.

There probably was a serious strike on a convoy and then someone got overexcited or wanted to get some propoganda going. But there is a reason that truth is the first casualty in war.

If the Ukrainians had enough firepower to destroy 800 vehicles, and the ability to concentrate it on one place to hit a single convoy, they would be using it on the forces surrounding and pounding Karchiv right now.

Not denying the numbers are (vastly) over-inflated, but if the propaganda press releases manage to seep to Russia and Russian troops, it could be very demoralizing. Is that what the poots call psyops?

[Slim Cognito]

Could we have vastly overestimated Russia’s military strength? That would be nice.

Probably to a degree, but given Putin's paranoia, Russia could also be holding back its air power for an anticipated attack on the motherland. If the invasion really goes badly and Ukraine takes the offensive, that not only puts the eastern break away territories but Crimea back in play, and with troops on the move, Putin might be planning based off the idea that Ukraine would counter invade.

I don't think anyone's considering Ukraine actually invading Russia but I wouldn't be surprised if paranoid psychopath Putin is hoping Ukraine will lob (or drop) a missile or two to his way to, shall we say, make his day?

[raison de arizona]

Ukraine’s Air Force, along with units of the army and territorial defense, destroyed a large Russian military convoy near the city of Bashtanka in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region.

Military bloggers reported that the convoy contained up to 800 vehicles.

I'd knock that total down by 90% at least. Hell even dropping it by 95% and accepting that they destroyed 40 vehicles would be a massive victory. 800? Total bullshit. Sorry. The "Military Bloggers," whoever they are, don't have a fucking clue what they are talking about and are probably lying.

There probably was a serious strike on a convoy and then someone got overexcited or wanted to get some propoganda going. But there is a reason that truth is the first casualty in war.

If the Ukrainians had enough firepower to destroy 800 vehicles, and the ability to concentrate it on one place to hit a single convoy, they would be using it on the forces surrounding and pounding Karchiv right now.

Seeing reports revising the 800 number down to 80 FWIW. I've also seen some pictures that are purportedly from the area, I've only counted 4.

[Suranis]

Sorry, that thought has not entered Putin's head. It's hilarious to even contemplate it as a reason for Putin holding back.

I was not thinking about a full scale invasion of Russia, more of a Yalu river situation. One of Putin's big fears is of troops on the Russian border taking chunks of Russia to create their own buffers. He might be esp worried about Ukraine pressing the advantage and retaking Crimea, or even worse pushing south towards Georgia. If he thinks in terms of buffers, he must be worried that others will too.

Ya, that's more reasonable. He might also be thinking of the possibility of NATO troops getting deployed.

[neeneko]

I don't think anyone's considering Ukraine actually invading Russia but I wouldn't be surprised if paranoid psychopath Putin is hoping Ukraine will lob (or drop) a missile or two to his way to, shall we say, make his day?

I think his nightmare scenario is that NATO or the US (alone) decide to join the conflict and use it as a pretext to attack Russia. He was already framing Ukraine as a western puppet or a place the west was preparing to station troops right next to his border, so I would not be surprised if his planning included 'what if NATO uses this as a pretext to invade or destroy?'

[Volkonski]

[Foggy]

So the Russians have decided to claim that they're fighting Nazis in the Ukraine.

Did you see the statement from the Russian embassy in Canada?

Nazi this, Nazi that, it's freakin' Godwin's law on steroids and crack, is what it is. You'd think we were back 80 years ago, before I was born.

'Course, it'd be a lot easier to paint the Ukrainians as Nazis IF ZELENSKY WASN'T JEWISH.

Some days I just can't turn my brainbone OFF.

[MN-Skeptic]

I can't find exact figures, but likely more than 10 million civilians from the Soviet Union died in WWII. Civilians and military deaths? 20 million, maybe more. No matter what the number was, the Nazis were devastating to the population of the Soviet Union in WWII. In the U.S., right wing nuts love to accuse Democrats as Communists. I can't imagine that comes close to the hatred that Russians have to Nazis. So, of course, if you want to rouse your base, accuse the perceived enemy as being a Nazi.

[raison de arizona]

Russian soldiers continue to get a warm welcome in Ukraine: “Do you know where you are?! It’s Konotop. Here every second woman is a witch. Tomorrow you’ll no longer be able to get your d*ck to stand”

“The Konotop witch,” by the way, is a reference to classic piece of Ukrainian literature

[raison de arizona]

Russia has launched more than 450 missiles on Ukraine; UN calls for ceasefire

A U.S. Defense official said Wednesday that about 82% of Russian troops once stationed along Ukraine’s borders are now fighting inside the country.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share new details from a Pentagon assessment, added that the Russian military advances in Ukraine have slowed since the start of the invasion.

The person said that Russian troops are suffering from sustainment and logistics issues on the battlefield, including fuel and food supply shortages.

“But again, I want to remind they [the Russians] have an awful lot of combat capability at their disposal and they will attempt to overcome these challenges,” the official said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/russia- ... dates.html

[Notaperson]

Me yesterday, wondering about that convoy...

convoy.JPG (54.69 KiB) Viewed 966 times

This morning I saw that the Ukrainians were claiming they hit the convoy. And apparently some U.S. observers believe it's happening...

[raison de arizona]

This morning I saw that the Ukrainians were claiming they hit the convoy. And apparently some U.S. observers believe it's happening...
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1 ... 1674772490

Ukrainian and U.S. officials continue to describe Russian forces as being bogged down throughout the country. A Russian convoy northwest of Kyiv that has stretched for dozens of miles has struggled for days to advance toward the capital, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday. The convoy, which appears to be a mix of supply vehicles and combat power, would be instrumental in any Russian strategy to overtake Kyiv; officials say occasional attacks by the Ukrainian military, low morale among Russian troops and botched planning have slowed it down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... e-kherson/