Russia Invades Ukraine

[Luke]

Secretary Clinton will be on with Rachel Maddow tonight.

[W. Kevin Vicklund]

OMG. That convoy is 40+ miles long. 40+ miles of artillery bearing down on Kyiv. That is terrifying.

That's what we refer to as a "target-rich environment"

Especially if you're a drone pilot.

[raison de arizona]

► Show Spoiler

Just leaving classified briefing on Ukraine crisis. A few takeaways that I can share:

1/ Confirmation that the Russians have fallen behind their timeline. Ukrainian resistance has been fierce and there have been multiple Russian equipment and logistics failures.

2/ DoD and DHS are pressing hard for Congress to end the continuing resolution and get a budget passed. There is no way for our national security agencies to be nimble enough to support Ukraine if they are operating on the 2020/21 budget.

3/ The ability to keep supply lines running to Ukraine remains alive, but Russia will try to encircle and cut off Kiev in the next several weeks. The fight for Kiev will be long and bloody and Ukrainians are rapidly preparing for street to street combat.

4/ The U.S. and allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his oligarch allies, but to seize those assets as well. This is likely a further step than Putin’s inner circle anticipated.

[pipistrelle]

Looks real. Hope he has sunflower seeds in his pockets. Hope he needs them. We don’t want him back.

He’s real. Old article.

War of Words: Meet the Texan Trolling for Putin
In 2014, Russell Bonner Bentley was a middle-aged arborist living in Austin. Now he’s a local celebrity in a war-torn region of Ukraine—and a foot soldier in Russia’s information war.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/s ... a-hacking/

[pipistrelle]

OMG. That convoy is 40+ miles long. 40+ miles of artillery bearing down on Kyiv. That is terrifying.

That's what we refer to as a "target-rich environment"

Especially if you're a drone pilot.

There's been chatter on Twitter about this all day, how it's insane to have all those vehicles bunched and why would anyone do that? All I can think is Putin's hoping to draw NATO air fire so he can punch the big red button before he punches out.

(Hoping at least they run out of fuel at an inconvenient point.)

[Dave from down under]

OMG. That convoy is 40+ miles long. 40+ miles of artillery bearing down on Kyiv. That is terrifying.

That's what we refer to as a "target-rich environment"

Especially if you're a drone pilot.

There's been chatter on Twitter about this all day, how it's insane to have all those vehicles bunched and why would anyone do that? All I can think is Putin's hoping to draw NATO air fire so he can punch the big red button before he punches out.

(Hoping at least they run out of fuel at an inconvenient point.)

I think it is more just trying to get a quick victory logistic log jam..
(Rather than trap)

A good overview to date is:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/ ... /100869776

[MN-Skeptic]

An interesting way of looking at this -

[Foggy]

When i saw "Clinton on Maddow" I thought, couldn't they get Barry Soetoro? He might know a thing or three.

Today is the day, militarily speaking.

Ask your doctor if invading Ukraine is right for you.

[MN-Skeptic]

Excellent Twitter thread about the communications issues plaguing the Russian army -

[Foggy]

Good lord, I start a new thread about the use of high-tech in the war, and MN-Skeptic posts evidence that the Russian Army is more low-tech than in WWII?

That is totally fascinating too also. How the heck can an army be low-tech in the freakin' 21st century?

[Slim Cognito]

Is/was Putin so delusional he actually believed Ukrainians would happily surrender and the hi-tech stuff wasn't necessary? I fear what will happen in Kiev today now that we hear Putin is angry the above didn't happen, thus the km(s) long convoy heading that way. Also, he's putting the (real) nuclear option on the table. I've lived an interesting life and am strangely calm about that but I do feel really bad for the younger generations.

[bill_g]

Excellent Twitter thread about the communications issues plaguing the Russian army -

https: //twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680

This was discussed elsewhere that the Russians were using civilian unencrypted conventional analog radios rather than military grade comms.



The photo is of a Chinese product from Baofeng. Frequency agile, front panel programmable, poorly made, poor performing, but very low cost.

[MN-Skeptic]

Is/was Putin so delusional he actually believed Ukrainians would happily surrender and the hi-tech stuff wasn't necessary? I fear what will happen in Kiev today now that we hear Putin is angry the above didn't happen, thus the km(s) long convoy heading that way. Also, he's putting the (real) nuclear option on the table. I've lived an interesting life and am strangely calm about that but I do feel really bad for the younger generations.

I wonder if Putin wasn’t lied to by his military leaders about the readiness of his army.

I feel awful for those young Russian soldiers duped into this war. They join up because of poverty at home only to find themselves in a war they don’t want. They are disposable cannon fodder for Putin and the military leaders.

[raison de arizona]

I feel awful for those young Russian soldiers duped into this war. They join up because of poverty at home only to find themselves in a war they don’t want. They are disposable cannon fodder for Putin and the military leaders.

It’s worth mentioning that a decent portion of Russia’s army is conscripted. I can’t remember for sure, but I want to say 30%.

[Foggy]

I wonder if Putin wasn’t lied to by his military leaders about the readiness of his army.

Stalin wasn't ready for the Germans either.

And beyond the poor quality of the conscripted troops, apparently the oligarchs have been stripping the funding from the miitary, so that the equipment is in really poor shape and the troops they have are poorly trained.

What did Rummy say about the army you wish you had?

[Slim Cognito]

I have no idea how accurate my impressions are but over the decades I've heard stories of (for example) Russian tanks where soldiers were forced to turn off the auto-load function because they (the tanks) had a bad habit of loading soldiers instead of ammo, not to mention all the jokes about Russian-made autos, but if any of those stories are true, it suggests their equipment may not have been all that great in the first place,* although that certainly could be from a funding-starved element rather than a lack of access to superior technology element.

*Too also, I have a morbid fascination with submarines. I've read most historic submarine stories, including the Hunley, K9 (the true story, not the H. Ford movie) and many other submarine disasters, our country's included. To me, a submarine is scarier than a haunted house.

Off Topic

(Full disclosure, I LOVE haunted houses. I always seek out historic haunted hotels when I travel.)

Anyhoo, back to Russian submarine technology- I hear is not so good. American capitalists pigs know precisely which Russian sub is following them by listening to specific noises they make.

[pipistrelle]

An Amur tiger researcher I met in the 90s said the bolts were visibly coming loose from the planes. Passengers held their breath and prayed.

[Chilidog]

There is a video floating around of a Ukrainian soldier examining a case of the Russian equivalent of their MRE combat rations.

The boxes have an expiration date of 2015.

[Chilidog]

I feel awful for those young Russian soldiers duped into this war. They join up because of poverty at home only to find themselves in a war they don’t want. They are disposable cannon fodder for Putin and the military leaders.

It’s worth mentioning that a decent portion of Russia’s army is conscripted. I can’t remember for sure, but I want to say 30%.

I read somewhere that after Afghanistan, Russian laws were passed that prohibited the use of concripts in certain situations... Like what is happening now.

[Suranis]

My understanding is that the Russian Conscripts are usually put on Border patrol duties and other low conflict low priority zones. The Russians know how unreliable they are so they are just used to fill holes while the more useful troops go elsewhere.

[Notaperson]

OMG. That convoy is 40+ miles long. 40+ miles of artillery bearing down on Kyiv. That is terrifying.

That's what we refer to as a "target-rich environment"

Especially if you're a drone pilot.

There's been chatter on Twitter about this all day, how it's insane to have all those vehicles bunched and why would anyone do that? All I can think is Putin's hoping to draw NATO air fire so he can punch the big red button before he punches out.

(Hoping at least they run out of fuel at an inconvenient point.)

I can't stop thinking about that convoy. Like everyone says, it seems like such an easy target.

I read somewhere that Ukraine has maybe 10 Turkish drones. Where are they? Why aren't we seeing reports of drones attacking the convoy??

It also seems obvious that teams of Ukrainians could approach the convoy from back roads, sneaking through the woods under cover of darkness perhaps, shoot some anti-tank missiles at it, and quickly disappear. Yet as far as I can tell, that isn't happening. Why not??

I admit my knowledge of combat tactics would barely fill the back of a postage stamp. If there is some reason the Ukrainian fighters can't attack the convoy as easily as I am imagining, please fill me in.

[Chilidog]

We don't know that that is not happening right now.

I have seen some videos if Russian attack helicopters in action, so there might be some attempts to assert combat air patrols by the Russians.

[W. Kevin Vicklund]

Off Topic

(Full disclosure, I LOVE haunted houses. I always seek out historic haunted hotels when I travel.)

Off Topic

My sister (who is probably having a baby this week) is the producer for the A Haunting tv show.

[raison de arizona]

I feel awful for those young Russian soldiers duped into this war. They join up because of poverty at home only to find themselves in a war they don’t want. They are disposable cannon fodder for Putin and the military leaders.

It’s worth mentioning that a decent portion of Russia’s army is conscripted. I can’t remember for sure, but I want to say 30%.

I read somewhere that after Afghanistan, Russian laws were passed that prohibited the use of concripts in certain situations... Like what is happening now.

Interesting, that appears to be the case. It also appears that Russia is playing fast and loose with their rules. I'm paywalled here, but just the headline indicates something amiss.

Russian Mothers Say Soldiers Tricked Into Going to Ukraine
Russian law prohibits conscripts from being sent to the front unless they choose to sign a contract and become career soldiers. But in Ukraine, 'there are a lot of draftees. None of them signed up'

https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/euro ... 1.10633865

[Suranis]

I can't stop thinking about that convoy. Like everyone says, it seems like such an easy target.

Honestly, it could be heavily guarded or it could be bait for a trap. Its been reported for days so it has to be moving extremely slowly, which could suggest its having to stop and start, which might mean it's being attacked all the time. t And frankly there could be nothing on it worth attacking, and the News is reporting on it as its a lovely visual thing they can show off.

I'm sure those people with the fingers on the buttons are as aware of it as we are, and have reasons for inaction.