Russia Invades Ukraine

[raison de arizona]

Liberty goes Ukraine.jpg

where is that?

[Volkonski]

[Volkonski]

[Suranis]

Liberty goes Ukraine.jpg

where is that?

Probably France. Paris has its own smaller copy of the Statue of Liberty. Or New York has its own larger copy of the Statue of Liberty. They were both made at the same time.

[Volkonski]

[raison de arizona]

Liberty goes Ukraine.jpg

where is that?

Probably France. Paris has its own smaller copy of the Statue of Liberty. Or New York has its own larger copy of the Statue of Liberty. They were both made at the same time.

There's a copy beyond the Brooklyn Museum, but it is smaller than that one.

[Chilidog]

Seems kinda dangerous, she just gave herself a new hairstyle.

Its not even an operational tank.
It's being towed by a tractor.

Probably being "claimed" by another "Roma farmer"

[Chilidog]

Based on the videos being uploaded to reddit, Kharkiv is getting leveled right now.

[raison de arizona]

I have a very uneasy feeling about what is really going on here. Russia should have been able to just destroy Ukraine on Day 1, 2, or maybe even take 3 days. I am having increasingly foreboding thoughts that Russia and generals have been deliberately making bad choices and sacrificing in order to build a false sense of security and false sense of Ukraine's ability to fend them off.

There is a caravan at least 3 to 5 miles long of very heavy artillery and rockets heading straight for Kiev. Wouldn't it be smart to distract them by offering "talks", which means Zelenskyy had to spend at least some time talking strategy on that, possibly losing a day of military defense strategy. If those heavy artillery reach Kiev, I don't see any way that it's not all over. They are suspiciously offering for civilians a free way out of Kiev. They plan to bomb Kiev into oblivion. And Zelenskyy will likely be killed.

This is an interesting thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498 ... 40167.html

Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraine’s ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated. 1/
The Russian operation was focused on getting to Kyiv quickly, forcing a surrender, and pushing a small number of units forward quickly in a way that avoided large engagements with UKR forces. They’ve been skirting major cities, going for key road junctions/smaller towns, etc. 2/
Why did Moscow choose this course of action? A few theories: they didn’t take Ukraine & its military seriously. They wanted to avoid attrition & devastation because of consequences for pol goals in Ukraine, costs of casualties, and they want to hide the costs from the public. 3/
It is also possible that Russian military planners genuinely wanted to avoid inflicting high levels of destruction given how unpopular this war was going to be at home. Most Russian soldiers are young & have little interest in fighting Ukrainians as an opponent. 4/

► Show Spoiler

What I’ve seen so far suggests that Russian troops were unaware they would be ordered to invade, and appear reluctant to prosecute this war. They don't see Ukrainians as adversaries and the military didn’t prepare them for this campaign. Outside of Chechens, morale seems low. 5/
This is an unworkable concept of operations. It seems they tried to win quickly and cheaply via 'thunder runs,' hoping to avoid the worst of sanctions & Western outrage. They’ve ended up in the worst of all worlds, trickling more resources into a failed strategy. 6/
However, this is barely a few days into the war. Ukraine has done remarkably well, but no analysts (except maybe in Moscow) expected Russia to defeat the largest country in Europe within 4 days, especially given UKR military capability. 7/
On the shambolic effort - Russian units are not really fighting as BTGs. They’re driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon & VDV units forward. Tanks often by themselves and vice versa. Fires & enablers not used decisively, and often not used at all. 8/
Outside of the fighting NW of Kyiv we have a lot of smaller detachments, tanks, IFVs, often recon or VDV units pressing down roads & into cities. Small formations regularly outrunning logistics, without support, or letting support & artillery get ambushed behind them. 9/
Beyond large numbers of units strewn out in small detachments & checkpoints, we have the inverse situation as well. Long trains of Russian vehicles stuck in their own traffic jams, entering across the border. Air defenses not covering them, but stuck on the road with them. 10/
As companies & platoons run ahead to seize points, logistics can’t keep up, and they’re not being effectively covered by support. Most of the fights I've seen are small skirmishes, especially on the outskirts of major cities. These may be intense, but not major battles. 11/
The Russian failure is driven by the fact that they’re attempting to conduct a full-scale invasion without the mil operation that it would require, thinking they can avoid most of the fighting. This has led to not only unworkable force employment, but lack of employment. /12
The truth is that large parts of the Russian military have yet to enter this war, with many of the capabilities still unused. Not to take away from UKR great mil performance, and resilience, but I see a lot of early judgments & conclusions that need moderation. 13/
In the first 4 days, Russian tactical aviation, except for some Su-25s, largely sat on the sidelines. So have most combat helicopters. They have hundreds of both deployed in the area. Russia's air force is missing in action, and largely unused. 14/
The Russian military sought to use cruise/ballistic missiles to destroy/suppress UKR air defense and target air bases. However, they're not flying CAPs, or offensive counter air, and only today have I spotted the first Su-34 bomber conducting strikes. /15
Except for heavy shelling around Kharkiv, use of fires have been limited compared to how the Russian mil typically operates. Sadly, I think this will change. Russian mil is an artillery army first, and it has used a fraction of its available fires in this war thus far. /16
The bulk of the Russian military has yet to enter the fight. Outside Kharkiv, most of the 1st Guards Tank Army, and 20th Army, are just sitting there. They pushed a few BTGs a considerable distance past Sumy, but I think a lot of Russia's forces are still on the sidelines. /17
Another point, Russian losses are significant, and they have had a number of troops captured, but they have been advancing along some axes. In general, Ukrainians are posting evidence of their combat successes, but the opposite is less true, distorting the overall picture. 18/
Hence my next thought. In a desperate effort to keep the war hidden from the Russian public, framing this as a Donbas operation, Moscow has completely ceded the information environment to Ukraine, which has galvanized morale and support behind Kyiv. Another miscalculation. /19
I won't comment on the host of official claims made in this war so far, except that I think Kyiv is doing a great job shaping perceptions & the information environment. That said, folks should approach official claims critically in a time of war. /20
Looking at the military effort, I think Russian forces are getting some basics really wrong, but we're also learning things that are probably not true about the Russian military as well. They're not really fighting the way they train and organize for a major conventional war. /21
The assumptions have Grozny 1994 vibes, while some of the operations remind me of classic mil org driven blunders. Sending airborne air assault brigades or naval infantry in early on to 'do their thing,' even though it is unnecessary, risky, or impractical. /22
What's next? Russia's political leadership is still not conceding their plan's failure, trying to take Kyiv quickly. But we're seeing them open up greater use of fires, strikes, and air power. Sadly, I expect the worst is yet ahead, and this war could get a lot more ugly. /23
I was going to add, that I've seen and read other explainer threads out there about the Russian military failure. I differ with some of those explanations, they're generally not coming from Russia mil experts, and 4 days into a war might be a bit early for conclusive statements.
Also, looking at day 5, seeing major adjustments. Russian military is suspending unsupported thunder runs, resupplying, and reorganizing. Ukraine's military has performed rly well, but I think we're going to see a different Russian approach moving forward.

[Volkonski]

[Volkonski]

[Volkonski]

[poplove]

Liberty goes Ukraine.jpg

That's the Lady Liberty statue in Las Vegas.

[raison de arizona]

Liberty goes Ukraine.jpg

That's the Lady Liberty statue in Las Vegas.

Thanks!

[poplove]

Liberty goes Ukraine.jpg

That's the Lady Liberty statue in Las Vegas.

Thanks!

I drive by her on Fridays. She usually wears a Golden Knights jersey. She also wore a mask for a while.

[Volkonski]

Reuters
@Reuters
·
6m
Ukraine's ambassador to U.S. says Russia used a vacuum bomb on Monday http://reut.rs/3tkbOAK

[New Turtle]

There was video of a thermobaric launcher in a convoy over the weekend. I was hoping it got taken out before they had a chance to use it.

[Luke]

UN General Assembly live -- This is cued up to the Ukrainian Ambasassor. He reads a letter from a Russian soldier who was texting his Mom right before he was killed. Heartbreaking. He told him Mom they were told Ukranians wanted the Russians there. Reminded me of Dick Cheney with his bouquets of flowers. Evil fuck*ers.

WATCH LIVE: United Nations General Assembly meets to debate Russia's attack on Ukraine

[raison de arizona]

Here is the phone from Orly’s post.

[Kendra]

Here’s a Republican from Texas fighting alongside the Russians and filming propaganda videos for them. This is treason.

Don't know if this is the real thing.

[raison de arizona]

Looks real. Hope he has sunflower seeds in his pockets. Hope he needs them. We don’t want him back.

[Kendra]

Looks real. Hope he has sunflower seeds in his pockets. Hope he needs them. We don’t want him back.

[Uninformed]

“Russian convoy 'stretches up to 40 miles'
Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology says that earlier reports indicating the column of Russian armour advancing on Kyiv is 17 miles (27km) long are inaccurate.
The convoy actually stretches about 40 miles, according to Maxar.
The company added that new images also show ground troops and attack helicopters in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles from the Ukraine border.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

[RVInit]

OMG. That convoy is 40+ miles long. 40+ miles of artillery bearing down on Kyiv. That is terrifying.

[raison de arizona]

“Russian convoy 'stretches up to 40 miles'
Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology says that earlier reports indicating the column of Russian armour advancing on Kyiv is 17 miles (27km) long are inaccurate.
The convoy actually stretches about 40 miles, according to Maxar.
The company added that new images also show ground troops and attack helicopters in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles from the Ukraine border.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

I have never been a religious person, but I am praying now and am asking everyone else to pray for Ukraine.

Those poor people.

How unthinkable.

Perhaps the biggest risk-calculation/moral dilemma of the war so far. A massive Russian convoy is abt 30 miles from Kyiv. The US/NATO could likely destroy it. But that would be direct involvement against Russia and risk, everything. Does the West watch in silence as it rolls?

The way you tweet about whether the US and NATO should engage in a full-on war against a nuclear-armed super power is shockingly glib. It's not as simple as "watch in silence as it rolls" or not. The stakes are risking nuclear annihilation.