Rethinking Herd Immunity and the Covid-19 Response End Game

[Lani]

Rethinking Herd Immunity and the Covid-19 Response End Game
https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/what- ... -198222852

Informative article from John Hopkins. Below is just a snippet.

Is herd immunity still an achievable goal for COVID-19?

Yes—but “herd immunity to COVID-19” does not mean that we will soon achieve a level of immunity in the population, like what we see with measles, and coronavirus will be “over.” Returning to life as it was before the pandemic, without seeing large coronavirus outbreaks, is unlikely to happen for several years, for a few reasons.

First, it has proven much harder to get people vaccinated against COVID-19 than against measles. As of September 2021, just over half of the US population was fully vaccinated against COVID-19—even though we know that the FDA-approved vaccines are extremely safe and have remained highly effective, even against new variants like the delta variant.

Second, young children are still not eligible for the vaccine, and new children (who are susceptible to COVID-19) are born every day. So, until we get vaccines that are approved for use in all ages, there is likely to be ongoing transmission of the coronavirus in kids, who will in turn be able to infect adults, especially unvaccinated ones.

Third, while our vaccines against COVID-19 are very effective and dramatically reduce the risk of infection, they do not reduce that risk to zero. People who have gotten vaccinated can still become infected (so-called breakthrough infections), and some people who have had COVID-19 can get it again. This means that we would need an even higher level of vaccination against COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity.

For all these reasons, it will be very challenging to get to the level of population immunity against COVID-19 that we have seen with measles in the U.S. We should therefore expect to see some level of ongoing coronavirus transmission in our population for many years (if not forever). But as we build immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the risk of severe illness will decrease, and future waves of infection won’t be as disruptive.

[notorial dissent]

I'm coming to the conclusion that "herd immunity" isn't a viable option with a virus that mutates and changes as rapidly as this one seems to. The vaccines we currently have are working to a degree but they can't keep up with the rapid change factor. Either we need a broader spectrum vaccine, or hopefully the virus will eventually mutate to a harmless form. Right now the vaccines are as I see it the best solution we have.

[Lani]

Moderna is working on an Omicron-specific booster and plans to have clinical trials in early 2022.

[notorial dissent]

Moderna is working on an Omicron-specific booster and plans to have clinical trials in early 2022.

Would be nice, but what about the next iteration?

[Lani]

I'm impressed with how quickly the new vaccine is created and soon to be tested. It also will provide better immunity to Delta. (From CNN, but I'm to tired to look up the link.)

[dan1100]

Moderna is working on an Omicron-specific booster and plans to have clinical trials in early 2022.

Would be nice, but what about the next iteration?

For countries wealthy enough to afford it, they'll make another vaccine for that variation too, probably with an even more streamlined approval process.

For poor countries, they are probably just sh*t out of luck.

[bill_g]

And therein is the next disease vector: a large global population of unvax'd people. It was discussed obliquely in the OP as if the US existed in a bubble. That happens a lot. We are blessed to live in a very advanced country. We will be stuck in this cycle of trying to keep up with the variants until We aid the rest of the world.