Weather Alerts

[Volkonski]

Milton seems to be intensifying faster than previous forecasts.

[MN-Skeptic]

I'm mostly on Instagram to see what my nieces post, but I'll put a shout out here for Dr.Beachgem10 who posts on Instagram. Dr.Beachgem10 is Dr. Meghan Martin, an emergency room pediatric doctor who has a very large following on Instagram. Most of the time she's posting stuff relating to children's health, but she's been a wealth of knowledge for people in the hurricane paths. She will tell people what to do, in a clean list pattern, when the storm is approaching and then, also, exactly what to do when the storm has passed. Her own home was damaged with something like 4' of storm surge from Hurricane Helene. Being in the Tampa area, she's also being targeted by Hurricane Milton. Being an emergency room doctor, she spent landfall from Helene in her hospital, but she has cameras both inside and outside of her house to monitor the situation. She was posting videos from them during Helene's rising storm surge.

[Volkonski]

More FL counties are closing schools starting tomorrow including Sarasota and Manatee. Evacuation orders are going out in many jurisdictions.

Imagine what the Milton storm surge will be like with all the piles of debris from Helene floating in it.

[Rolodex]

Ugh. I'm so sorry for all y'all in the way of this. I guess the barrier islands (Longboat Key, etc) will evacuate again. Businesses there are already destroyed.

[Foggy]

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[Rolodex]

Normally, hurricanes go mostly north-ish, the east side is considered the more severe side of the storm. Milton is almost directly east. So I guess that puts the south as the dangerous side? That could be bad for Miami. While the surge will affect Tampa probably most (St Pete, Sarasota, Ft Myers, Naples) since they're on the west coast, the east might see more storm damage not related to surge. Miami can't take a lot of rain.

[Volkonski]

NHC now forecasting that Milton will reach CAT 4.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0242.shtml?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

[Volkonski]

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2024 ... er-island/

Pinellas County officials issued orders Sunday to evacuate about 6,600 patients from six hospitals, 25 nursing homes, and 44 assisted living facilities.

Meteorologists forecasted Milton’s impact was likely going to be more destructive in coastal areas. While Helene caused 6 to 8 feet of storm surge, Milton was set to cause over 10 feet.

“We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma,” said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

[neonzx]

IMG_COM_202410070343385060.jpg (86.36 KiB) Viewed 782 times

[Volkonski]

Milton is now a Cat 3. It is forecast to become a very strong Cat 4 barely 1 MPH short of being a Cat 5. Since Milton has intensified faster than previous forecasts I think Cat 5 is likely.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1149.shtml?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

[Volkonski]

Serious storm surge is forecast for most of the west coast of Florida.

093335_peak_surge.png (371.97 KiB) Viewed 716 times

[Foggy]

Sunny and low 80°s here, light fluffy clouds, lots of Sun molecules, another perfect day for a stroll along the mighty Neuse River.

But Florida is in REAL TROUBLE.

.

milton.jpg (69.13 KiB) Viewed 697 times

[Flatpoint High]

and MaL is in its path.

[Volkonski]

Milton now a Cat 4 with 150 MPH winds. Cat 5 begins at 157 MPH. Milton has yet to reach the warmest Gulf waters.

In 2008 Hurricane Ike reached Cat 5 but weakened and came ashore near Houston as a Cat 2. However it still had a Cat 5 size storm surge which almost wiped off all the buildings on the Bolivar Peninsula.



In Baytown we were without power for 2 weeks.

People should not take any comfort if Milton weakens shortly before landfall.

[Foggy]

When Volkonski pays this much attention to a storm, I know it's going to be very, very bad. He documents these things with amazing detail, and Milton has his full attention.

Full disclosure: the forum John Thomas8 and I came from ... long before Fogbow, years before Politijab ... was run by a guy named Milton and his wife, and they had a son our boys' age, and my fambly became quite close to his for a few years. Then he shut down his forum and we went our separate ways. Haven't seen him for ten years, but I wonder what he thinks of his namesake hurricane being so big and scary.

[Volkonski]

Milton now a 155 MPH Cat 4. Just 2 MPH to go to get to Cat 5.

Just 24 hours ago Milton was a 65 MPH tropical storm. That is an increase of 90 MPH in 24 hours.

Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of 35 MPH in a 24-hour period. Milton has done over 2 1/2 times that.

[Volkonski]

Forecast now is for Milton to reach 165 MPH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[tek]

I'm "out of the cone" .. at least for now.
As is MaL.

[RTH10260]

Stale joke, something about a sharpie to redirect ...

[Volkonski]

Milton is now a Cat 5 160 MPH.

A few hours ago there were headlines saying Milton would reach Cat 5 tomorrow.

Milton is an overachiever.

[Volkonski]

Heavy traffic out of Pinellas County and Tampa going to the north and east.

tampa3.jpg (183.96 KiB) Viewed 558 times

[RVInit]

Oh, no, no, no, no, NOOOOOOO.

It's a category 4 now, 155 MPH winds. Expected to reach Category 5 status. Shit, I'm not on the coast, but still in the path. They are now saying it may hit slightly more south of where they were saying earlier, so that is somewhat better for me.

What about the rest of the Floridians, where are you in relation to the storm. I hope not in the path!!!

[RVInit]

Shit, Category 5 actually. Damn, that thing looks scary

[Volkonski]

I find it hard to believe but Milton is now up to 175 MPH. It gained 15 MPH while I was having lunch.

[neonzx]

Lee County FL has issued a MANDATORY evac order for flood zones A and B to be completed by Tuesday afternoon.

(I am in zone D)

ETA: The Town of Fort Myers Beach was ordered by town official to evac by 3pm today, Monday. At 3pm, the water is being shut off.