Spring forward.
To delete this message, click the X at top right.

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

User avatar
sugar magnolia
Posts: 3227
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:54 pm

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#426

Post by sugar magnolia »

Desantis and Ramaswamy will both be on our ballots on Tuesday because they forgot to notify the State that they had withdrawn.
User avatar
Flatpoint High
Posts: 1278
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:58 am
Location: Hotel California, PH523, Galaxy Central, M103
Occupation: professional pain in the ass, voice actor & keeper of the straight face
Verified:

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#427

Post by Flatpoint High »

unb99xsb7xmc1.jpeg
unb99xsb7xmc1.jpeg (59.99 KiB) Viewed 510 times
castigat ridendo mores.
VELOCIUS QUAM ASPARAGI COQUANTUR
User avatar
AndyinPA
Posts: 9853
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:42 am
Location: Pittsburgh
Verified:

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#428

Post by AndyinPA »

:rotflmao:
"Choose your leaders with wisdom and forethought. To be led by a coward is to be controlled by all that the coward fears… To be led by a liar is to ask to be told lies." -Octavia E. Butler
User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 5826
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:25 pm

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#429

Post by Suranis »

AndyinPA wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:37 am
“Look, we needed a couple of miracles,” Uygur said in a “The Young Turks” interview later Wednesday. “This was an act of desperation to try to change the course of this campaign because Biden I was positive was going to lose.”

Uygur acknowledged that his legal battle found little success, but he said the stage is set for future naturalized citizens who choose to challenge the presidential requirement.

“I got caught trying,” he said.
Uh... Cenk, if that was the case there were lots of people you could put on the ballot INSTEAD OF YOU who would not have had any legal problems to surmount.

But then that would be someone INSTEAD OF YOU!! Wouldn't it?
Hic sunt dracones
User avatar
Slim Cognito
Posts: 6552
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:15 am
Location: Too close to trump
Occupation: Hats. I do hats.
Verified:

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#430

Post by Slim Cognito »

IMG_3188.webp
IMG_3188.webp (123.38 KiB) Viewed 475 times
Pup Dennis in training to be a guide dog & given to a deserving vet. Thx! ImageImageImage x4
User avatar
raison de arizona
Posts: 17654
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:21 am
Location: Nothing, Arizona
Occupation: bit twiddler
Verified: ✔️ he/him/his

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#431

Post by raison de arizona »

I'm unclear on how some states were able to remove Uyguyr's name from the ballot absent enabling legislation by Congress.

Or does such legislation already exist?
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
User avatar
bob
Posts: 5382
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:07 am

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#432

Post by bob »

raison de arizona wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 1:57 pm I'm unclear on how some states were able to remove Uyguyr's name from the ballot absent enabling legislation by Congress.

Or does such legislation already exist?
Before SCOTUS' latest, the answer was easy: States have the inherent authority to remove ineligible candidates. States, in fact, have been doing that for decades (if not longer).

Post-Anderson, the answer is probably the same.

The Anderson concurrence notes other presidential disqualifiers (i.e., natural-born-citizen clause and the 22nd Amendment) are self-executing, and observes the majority opinion doesn't suggest otherwise.

But I wouldn't be surprised if, in some future eligibility challenge, a court cites Anderson for the proposition that (absent Congressional approval, which will never happen) state courts lack the authority to remove any federal candidate for any reason. Because the Anderson majority clutches pearls about patchwork decisions, which federalists used to say was a feature and not a bug. Yet Uygur is a textbook example of such a patchwork: He was actively excluded from some states' ballots (e.g., New Hampshire, South Carolina) yet included on others (Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, and Vermont).
Image ImageImage
User avatar
RTH10260
Posts: 14349
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:16 am
Location: Switzerland, near the Alps
Verified: ✔️ Eurobot

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#433

Post by RTH10260 »

‘Like choosing between a hedgehog and a porcupine’: US braces for presidential election no one wants
Both candidates are disliked by a majority of Americans, and 45% believe a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch is bad for the country

Joan E Greve in Washington
Sat 9 Mar 2024 14.00 CET

In past years, the first phase of the general election has involved at least one of the presidential nominees introducing themselves to the broader public and presenting their case for taking the country in a new direction. But that has been rendered unnecessary this year: former president Donald Trump and president Joe Biden are very familiar to the American electorate – and they are broadly unpopular.

“I think this is the worst election in my lifetime,” said George Argodale, a Nikki Haley supporter from Gainesville, Virginia. “It’s just terrible that we don’t have better candidates.”

“That’s a sad state of affairs for our country that those are the two best candidates that we can come up with,” agreed Peggy Hudson, a primary voter in Charleston, South Carolina.

Judith Smith, from Moncks Corner, South Carolina, said of Biden and Trump: “That’s like choosing between a hedgehog and a porcupine.”

As the primary season sputters to an expected ending, following Haley’s withdrawal from the Republican primary on Wednesday, voters’ frustration with their general election options is palpable.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -one-wants
User avatar
tek
Posts: 2250
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:15 am

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#434

Post by tek »

45% believe a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch is bad for the country
And exactly what is the alternative at this point?
User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 5826
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:25 pm

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#435

Post by Suranis »

Maybe the alternative is not believing meaningless polls that want to push a narritive? This was written March 2nd...

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/can- ... rudy-salas
It’s A Close, Competitive Election - Yes, the NYT released a poll today that has Trump ahead. Some initial thoughts:

Lots of other polls show the race even, competitive - Three national polls released this week (below) have the race even. 538’s Congressional Generic tracker is tied, 44%-44%. A new battleground state poll produced by top Democratic pollsters has Trump and Biden tied at 40%. Another battleground state poll that hasn’t been released yet that I was just briefed on has it 41%-39% Trump, essentially the same results. Senate polling is slightly better for us than for Republicans right now.

The Times poll has Trump leading among likely voters by 4 points, 48%-44%. This is a gain of 6 points for Trump since the December Times poll. None of these other polls have found a GOP surge of this magnitude or even a GOP lead. So the NYT results are not confirmed in lots of other recent polling which finds the race close and competitive, which is where I think it is now.

Biden 36% Trump 36% - AP/IPSOS

Biden 44% Trump 44% - Economist/YouGov

Biden 43% Trump 44% - Morning Consult (Biden’s gained 4 pts in recent weeks in this poll)

There are problems with the NYT poll - It has Trump winning both Hispanics and women - an impossibility. It’s likely voter electorate is +3 Republican - something we haven’t seen in a general election in actual voting in 20 years, and only once in the last 8 Presidential elections going all the way back to 1992. In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51%, Republicans 46%, and we gained ground in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections. After all these years of strong Democratic vote performance for the electorate to become +3 Republican this year is, um, unlikely. Overestimating their intensity and strength and underestimating ours was a central reason so many saw the red wave that never came in 2022.

The poll has Trump winning all his 2020 voters, and keeping his party unified - something that is not happening either in the actual voting or polling in the early states. It has Dean Phillips at 10% in the Dem primary against Biden. In Michigan this week he got 2.5%, and came in behind Marianne Williamson who dropped out of the race a month ago.

The poll’s initial likely voter sample was 29% Dem, 28% Republican and was “weighted” through a complex formula to become 32% R and 29% D. That’s a shift of 4 percentage points, something that would take an even race and make it +4 R, as this poll finds.

The poll has Biden winning Democrats 90%-7%, Trump winning Republicans 91%-6%, and Biden winning Independents 45%-41%. These results would normally produce a Biden lead but with the aggressive weighting and a very Republican sample, it produces a 4 point Trump lead.

The poll only interviewed 980 people, which is a relatively small sample for such an influential poll. Its margin of error is 3.5% for registered voters and almost 4% for likely voters. The sub-samples have margin of errors in double digits.

I want to thank my friends Tom Bonier and Joe Trippi for their help in putting together this quick analysis.
Point being that poll is weighted twords Republicans to get a more or less even result.
Hic sunt dracones
User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 5826
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:25 pm

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#436

Post by Suranis »

More on polls

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/grea ... n-leads-in
Biden Leads in 4 New National Polls - Even before his powerful State of The Union speech, the President has had his best week of polling in some time. Four new, national polls show him leading. He made meaningful gains in all of them, and all 4 had more interviews than the most recent NYT poll (you can find the polls at 538). Here they are, Biden-Trump:

47%-44% Kaiser Family Foundation (7 pt Biden gain since last poll)

51%-49% Emerson (3 pt Biden gain since last poll)

44%-43% Morning Consult (5 pt Biden gain over past month)

43%-42% TIPP (3 pt Biden gain since last poll)

A central reason I’ve been so optimistic about us winning in November is that I always believed that when it became clear to voters that it was Biden vs Trump, and the Biden campaign began in earnest, a big chunk of our wandering coalition would come home. Biden would then gain 3-4 points and open up a small but meaningful lead in national polling. It’s possible that is what we we’re seeing now. It’s what Morning Consult found in their polling this week:
Biden retakes lead from Trump: Biden leads Trump, the likeliest Republican presidential nominee for 2024, by 1 percentage point (44% to 43%) in our latest national tracking survey. It’s Biden’s first lead over Trump since early January, and is driven by coalescence among the voters who backed him last time around: 85% of Biden 2020 voters say they’d vote for him if the election were today, the largest share since early September.
We begin the general election with the race close and competitive. Trump does not lead, nor he is favored. As I wrote recently, there are serious warning signs about ongoing Trump/Republican struggles and underperformance right now for those who want to see them. Yes, we have work to do to win this election and get to 55. But it is doable work, work that we can do, whereas their job of selling a more dangerous and extreme MAGA to a country which has rejected it in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 is far, far harder.
I just feel that throwing around a bit of hopium is good for the soul.
Hic sunt dracones
User avatar
pipistrelle
Posts: 6687
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:27 am

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#437

Post by pipistrelle »

It shouldn't be close at all, yet somehow here we are.
User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 5826
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:25 pm

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#438

Post by Suranis »

There no point getting depressed because its "close." That's like the way people were hating on Obama because he wasn't winning by enough. Thats nasically the whole thing of not having the good guys back.

Besides, it just leaves you depressed and exhausted which is what they want.
Hic sunt dracones
User avatar
Dr. Ken
Posts: 2447
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:12 pm
Contact:

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#439

Post by Dr. Ken »

This step and fetch mfer
ImageImagePhilly Boondoggle
User avatar
RTH10260
Posts: 14349
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:16 am
Location: Switzerland, near the Alps
Verified: ✔️ Eurobot

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#440

Post by RTH10260 »

‘A campaign for vengeance’: critics warn of a radical second Trump term
After a chaotic first term, experienced advisers are ready to usher in a second presidency ‘driven by imaginary grievances’

David Smith in Washington
Sun 17 Mar 2024 12.00 CET

The US election primary season is effectively over. Conventional wisdom holds that the two major candidates will now pivot towards the centre ground in search of moderate voters. But Donald Trump has never been one for conventional wisdom.

Composite of two images divided by two graphic lines, one red, one yellow. On the left is a Latino man with trim goatee, classes, collared shirt and tie, looking serious, and on the right, a brown hand and arm open what appears to be a ballot box with red starts and the beginning letters of "Maricopa county" in blue.

Detention camps, mass deportations, capital punishment for drug smugglers, tariffs on imported goods, a purge of the justice department and potential withdrawal from Nato – the Trump policy agenda is radical by any standard including his own, pushing the boundaries set during his first presidential run eight years ago.

“In 2016 he was still, in his own mind at least, positioning himself to be beloved by everybody,” said Kurt Bardella, a Democratic strategist. “That’s why ‘Drain the swamp’ was a more populist, appealing message to all sides of the aisle because everyone on some level felt like Washington’s broken, Washington’s left us behind.

“Now you flash-forward to 2024 and we’re getting a much darker version of Donald Trump, one who seems to be driven by imaginary grievances from the 2020 election. There’s nothing unifying about that message in any way; it’s incredibly self-centred. This is a campaign for vengeance. In a lot of ways he is Ahab and Moby Dick is the United States of America.”

Eight years ago Trump, seeking to become the first US president with no prior political or military experience, was running with a clean slate. If anything, there was a suspicion that his background as a thrice-married New York celebrity implied some ideological fluidity and latent liberal instincts.

But he announced his candidacy in June 2015 by promising to build a wall on the southern border, using xenophobic language to portray Mexicans as “criminals” and “rapists” and promising to “make America great again”.

During the campaign he described international trade deals as “a disaster” and called for increased tariffs on imports. He promised sweeping tax cuts and vowed to repeal Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act and environmental regulations, describing climate change as “a total hoax”.

Trump pledged to nominate supreme court justices opposed to abortion and, in one TV interview, suggested that women who have abortions should be punished. With backing from the National Rifle Association, he opposed gun safety reforms.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... trump-term
User avatar
AndyinPA
Posts: 9853
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:42 am
Location: Pittsburgh
Verified:

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#441

Post by AndyinPA »

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/24/politics ... index.html
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, aghast at Donald Trump’s candidacy and the direction of her party, won’t rule out bolting from the GOP.

The veteran Alaska Republican, one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial amid the aftermath of January 6, 2021, is done with the former president and said she “absolutely” would not vote for him.

“I wish that as Republicans, we had … a nominee that I could get behind,” Murkowski told CNN. “I certainly can’t get behind Donald Trump.”

The party’s shift toward Trump has caused Murkowski to consider her future within the GOP. In the interview, she would not say if she would remain a Republican.

Asked if she would become an independent, Murkowski said: “Oh, I think I’m very independent minded.” And she added: “I just regret that our party is seemingly becoming a party of Donald Trump.”
"Choose your leaders with wisdom and forethought. To be led by a coward is to be controlled by all that the coward fears… To be led by a liar is to ask to be told lies." -Octavia E. Butler
User avatar
Slim Cognito
Posts: 6552
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:15 am
Location: Too close to trump
Occupation: Hats. I do hats.
Verified:

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#442

Post by Slim Cognito »

It would take a lot for me to bolt from the Democratic Party, but I do miss the days when the two parties could work together. I am reminded of the story of Tip O’Neill and Ronald Reagan sharing a scotch after a long day of negotiating legislation.
Pup Dennis in training to be a guide dog & given to a deserving vet. Thx! ImageImageImage x4
User avatar
pipistrelle
Posts: 6687
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:27 am

A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

#443

Post by pipistrelle »

AndyinPA wrote: Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:28 pm Asked if she would become an independent, Murkowski said: “Oh, I think I’m very independent minded.” And she added: “I just regret that our party is seemingly becoming a party of Donald Trump.”
She's about 8 years behind on the news.
Post Reply

Return to “US President”