Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
- Luke
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
The networks are struggling to find anything relevant about tonight's Iowa Caucus. (So have we, didn't even see a topic.) Fighting over second place isn't thrilling. But WEATHER!
All that said, Jen Psaki looks fantastic, she's anchoring for Nicole. David Plouffe and Michael Steele are always fun.
Link to MSNBC live:
https://www.livenewsmag.com/msnbc-live-tv/
Gosh, who will it be, Nikki or Ron? The RDS X pumpers are still SURE he's going to win (at least almost) and they'll NEVER vote for DJT.
MAGAs are whining about Democrats being able to caucus (it's open with same-day registration). When reminded of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos, shockingly they stop replying.
All that said, Jen Psaki looks fantastic, she's anchoring for Nicole. David Plouffe and Michael Steele are always fun.
Link to MSNBC live:
https://www.livenewsmag.com/msnbc-live-tv/
Gosh, who will it be, Nikki or Ron? The RDS X pumpers are still SURE he's going to win (at least almost) and they'll NEVER vote for DJT.
MAGAs are whining about Democrats being able to caucus (it's open with same-day registration). When reminded of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos, shockingly they stop replying.
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Watching MSNBC too. Finally someone said the quiet part out loud about tfg's team offering free rides to caucus - that they'd likely be one way rides
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
I don't think the Ds caucus. they're sending out "preference cards" or something like that and no decision is made till sometime in Feb. At least that's what my feeble mind remembers about something I read.
Do the right thing. It will gratify some people and astonish the rest. - Mark Twain
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
The Ds are not doing a caucus this time around in Iowa. I did not hear about mailed preference cards. It's good for Dems not having to go out in this weather.
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Yeah; and there's only two other people on the Democratic ballot (Phillips and Williamson), so I wouldn't expect to see a rush to mailbox or anything.
538 ABC: What each candidate needs to do in the Iowa caucuses:
As often is the case, the early contests are about momentum and expectations.Even Trump will want to exceed expectations.
Coming is a strong second will be a boon, sure.
The biggest margin of victory (since 1980) in a Republican Iowa caucus was 1988, when Dole beat Robertson by over 12 points. So if the victor today beats that benchmark (and that likely will happen), expect to hear "blowout" often. Even though it'll only be a marginal difference in the delegate count.
I think really the only issue is whether Ramaswamy will suck so bad that he'll pull the plug before New Hampshire.
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- Luke
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
This is why Iowa keeps being a candidate to be removed as first in the nation. 65% white evangelical just isn't America anymore.
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
MSNBC projects tfg as winner of caucuses. `
- Luke
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
CNN too also. 8;30pm. "They want one more shot at electing Trump" -- Scott Jennings. Another jump toward DOOM for the GOP.
Bill Mitchell is already melting down.
Bill Mitchell is already melting down.
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
- Luke
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
RDS "exploded" back into second place
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
- Luke
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Looks like we know where Bill is getting his talking points.
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
He's not wrong.
Huh.
First time for everything.
Huh.
First time for everything.
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
After spending many dollars, Ramaswamy was awarded ... zero delegates.
And he won't be at the next debates.
Where's my sticking fork?
And he won't be at the next debates.
Where's my sticking fork?
Edit: UPDATE!
- Luke
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Only 106K turnout and half of the whitest, ruralist, conservativist state doesn't want DJT.
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
- raison de arizona
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
MSNBC is reporting that Vivek is throwing in the towel.
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Yeah, just heard it from Vivek’s own mouth on Fox. Suspended. Full tfg endorsement.
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
- Luke
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Vivek broadcast his exit as a Twitter Space if you want to see it (had no interest).
So there, Bill Mitchell sez!
So there, Bill Mitchell sez!
Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
- RTH10260
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Must be fake news. Elon Musk just claimed he will have bestest results viewtopic.php?p=240049#p240049raison de arizona wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:22 pm Yeah, just heard it from Vivek’s own mouth on Fox. Suspended. Full tfg endorsement.
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
I know there other significant factors in play this time but, silver lining?
In the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus tfg got 97.1% of the vote, in 2024 51%.
In the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus tfg got 97.1% of the vote, in 2024 51%.
If you can't lie to yourself, who can you lie to?
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
I mean, yeah. Turn it this way- half the Republicans that came out in the cold weather came out to vote AGAINST tfg.Uninformed wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:34 am I know there other significant factors in play this time but, silver lining?
In the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus tfg got 97.1% of the vote, in 2024 51%.
A boy can hope.
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
- pipistrelle
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Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
Stronger competition this time (not the incumbent, despite what he thinks) but one can hope.raison de arizona wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:38 amI mean, yeah. Turn it this way- half the Republicans that came out in the cold weather came out to vote AGAINST tfg.Uninformed wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:34 am I know there other significant factors in play this time but, silver lining?
In the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus tfg got 97.1% of the vote, in 2024 51%.
A boy can hope.
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
538 ABC: Who’s On Track For The GOP Nomination?
Executive summary: Only one candidate overachieved; the rest underachieved.
And (because this is 538) the benchmarks are somewhat subjective, as they anticipate the volume and weight of the later primaries. That is, the Republican nomination process is structured so that an early leader likely will capture enough later winner-take-all states, to encourage a quick primary season. To be truly competitive in the Republican primary, it has to be absolute horserace early on; if it isn't, the leader's margin quickly will grow past the point where an underdog could have a meaningful late strong run.
According to 538's models, DeSantis' best path is strike hard and quick, and wrap up the primary early. Whereas Haley's best shot is slow and steady, picking up enough delegates along to way, and then get pushed over the top at the very end, when more of her "more favorable" states will be voting.
Executive summary: Only one candidate overachieved; the rest underachieved.
And (because this is 538) the benchmarks are somewhat subjective, as they anticipate the volume and weight of the later primaries. That is, the Republican nomination process is structured so that an early leader likely will capture enough later winner-take-all states, to encourage a quick primary season. To be truly competitive in the Republican primary, it has to be absolute horserace early on; if it isn't, the leader's margin quickly will grow past the point where an underdog could have a meaningful late strong run.
According to 538's models, DeSantis' best path is strike hard and quick, and wrap up the primary early. Whereas Haley's best shot is slow and steady, picking up enough delegates along to way, and then get pushed over the top at the very end, when more of her "more favorable" states will be voting.
Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries
And there chuckleheads still dickering about Georgia and Arizona counted in 2020....
It would be so easy to "mule" in some extra votes there.