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#651

Post by Volkonski »


⚠️🇺🇦The mercenaries from the Wagner PMC who participated in the armed rebellion will not be prosecuted, Peskov said. He also said that the Wagner members will be able to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry if they want to. According to Peskov, the mutiny will not affect the course of the war.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#652

Post by Slim Cognito »

Not prosecuted, eh? I'd still stay away from open windows.

I'm worried about the Russian conscripts who stood aside and let them occupy.
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#653

Post by Slim Cognito »

I hope someone makes this into a gif.

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#654

Post by keith »

Suranis wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:23 pm Apparently Al Jezeera is doing excellent coverage.
Al Jezzera seems to have changed satellite frequency. Im getting the audio, but no picture except a billboard that says theyve moved.. probably nothing to do with Russia, but it is curious.
Has everybody heard about the bird?
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#655

Post by Suranis »

https://fxtwitter.com/AlecLuhn/status/1 ... 3440504832
Prigozhin gives a few high fives as he casually pulls out of Rostov after *trying to stage a coup*.

The guy in white looks like he’s trying to get an autograph.

Russia is weird.
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#656

Post by RTH10260 »

Wagner boss to leave Russia as reports say US spy agencies picked up signs of planned uprising days ago
Yevgeny Prigozhin agrees to move to Belarus after negotiated end to what was in effect Russia’s first armed coup in decades

Andrew Roth, Pjotr Sauer and agencies
Sun 25 Jun 2023 06.36 BST

The chief of the rebel Wagner mercenary force Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave Russia and won’t face charges after calling off his troops’ advance towards Moscow, as reports emerged that US spy agencies had picked up signs days ago that he was preparing to rise up against Russia’s defence establishment.

Late on Saturday, video emerged of Prigozhin leaving the headquarters of the southern military district in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don after agreeing to move to Belarus. His exact whereabouts on Sunday morning were not clear. Images also showed Wagner fighters withdrawing from the city.

The developments came amid reports in the Washington Post and New York Times that said US intelligence officials had conducted briefings at the White House, the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest in nuclear-armed Russia a full day before it unfolded.

Spy agencies first began tracking indications that Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary force intended to move against the Russian military leadership in mid-June, the Post said. The Times said the information was both solid and alarming by midweek, leading to the flurry of briefings.

As US intelligence officials pinned down information that Prigozhin was preparing military action, they grew concerned about chaos in a country with a powerful nuclear arsenal, the Times reported.

US spy agencies believe that Putin himself was informed that Prigozhin, once a close ally, was plotting his rebellion at least a day before it occurred, the Post reported.





https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... g-days-ago
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#657

Post by MN-Skeptic »

What am I missing? Didn’t Prigozhin just end up selling his army to Russia?
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#658

Post by Suranis »

Don't look at me, I have no idea what the hell went on in the last few days.
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#659

Post by Foggy »

Did he? I can't be entirely certain, but I've been reading the disreputable news rags that us liberal Democrats are forced to read, like the failing NY Times, the Economist, and the Washington Post.

I think a lot of Wagner people are going to sign up with the Russian Army. The others, :shrug:

I don't know whether Mr. Prig is capable of coming back from Belarus to lead his troops again. There are still significant numbers of Wagner troops in Africa and the Mideast.

It's all a big mess right now, but I do think this is all good for Ukraine.
The more I learn about this planet, the more improbable it all seems. :confuzzled:
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#660

Post by Foggy »

Just a quick few sentences from the Economist:
If Wagner fighters return to the field, mistrust between mercenaries and regulars will be worse than ever. If they are sidelined, despite the promise of an amnesty, Russia will lose up to 30,000 soldiers, including a battle-hardened elite of 5,000. Mr Putin was counting on a long war in which the West would grow tired of arming and funding Ukraine. There is now strong evidence that the war’s prolongation is also accelerating the fragmentation and decay of his own regime.
The more I learn about this planet, the more improbable it all seems. :confuzzled:
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#661

Post by Foggy »

Suranis wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 8:00 am Don't look at me, I have no idea what the hell went on in the last few days.
After reading everything I can, I can assure you that Suranis has the best and most accurate analysis of the situation. It's exactly what he described. :?
The more I learn about this planet, the more improbable it all seems. :confuzzled:
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#662

Post by Sam the Centipede »

Comments from Twitter suggest that it's important not to view the Prigozhin-Putin, ah, fuss through the prism of western political viewpoints. Western-style calculations – "Putin will never recover from that humiliating climbdown" – and similar don't apply.

Rather, use the Mafia as the model for interpretation. Gang bosses and sub-bosses arguing and vying for more control, each prepared to do whatever is necessary to retain or enhance their status. If that means appearing irrational, showing a lack of honor, lying outrageously, begging forgiveness, consigning your followers to a terrifying and unknown future, accepting a poor resolution in preference to a worse one, so be it. Whack! Job done.
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#663

Post by bill_g »

This was dick stretching on a global scale by criminals who don't care about collateral damage.
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#664

Post by RTH10260 »

bill_g wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 8:51 am This was dick stretching on a global scale by criminals who don't care about collateral damage.
Mercenaries don't care about collateral damage. Best interest is their own pay check and survival to spend the money.

What is happening in the eastern occupied parts of Ukraine is what Russia had devised post-WW2, a number of vasal states where any agression from (or against) the West would be fought, without damage to the Russian homeland. That's why Putin has continued to threaten the small Baltic nations more recently.
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#665

Post by Sam the Centipede »

RTH10260 wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:17 am Mercenaries don't care about collateral damage. Best interest is their own pay check and survival to spend the money.
More generally, the inhumanity of Russia's war, the psychological damage to both victims and perpetrators, must have a huge impact on future Russian society. So many damaged individuals with demons in their heads, trouble is inevitable. Some of the non-mercenaries will focus more on survival etc. as their belief in any sort of fair society and trust in others has been wiped out.

When these damaged people hit the daily struggles of life, such as waiting to be served in a shop, bureaucratic obstructiveness, kids being annoying kids, some are going to snap in a horrible way. Although Russia has strict gun laws now, it seems likely that there will be more flooding around in the future, certainly more people who are now familiar with firearms. Expect occasional mass shootings.
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#666

Post by Suranis »

I think the most telling thing about the whole thing is that the Russians kind of shrugged as the Mercs went through. No matter who wins the nothing the Russians have will still be nothing, so why should the ordinary Russian care?
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#667

Post by MN-Skeptic »

I thought this was an interesting long tweet thread about Prigozhin's actions - (start of thread below, link to threadreader here)

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#668

Post by somerset »

Volkonski wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:35 pm
Prigozhin declared a retreat from Moscow:
"The Wagner PMC wanted to disband. We were left 200 kilometers to Moscow. During this time we have not shed a single drop of blood of our soldiers. Now comes the moment, when the blood may be spilled. Therefore, realizing all the responsibility that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns around and going back to the field camps as planned."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/24/pr ... _marketing

ANALYSIS
Prigozhin’s Mutiny Is the Beginning of Putin’s End
When I saw the first images of armed men in ragtag uniforms taking over the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday morning, I was immediately reminded of the “little green men” who began showing up in cities in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. Like the Russian troops and soldiers-of-fortune who began the Kremlin’s covert invasion of Ukraine, the fighters in Rostov displayed no insignia as they seized key buildings, including the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District. Just as in Ukraine nine years ago, there was no resistance from local law enforcement officers, who chose life over a fight with determined gunmen.

This weekend’s lightning takeover of Rostov by the Wagner mercenary group was the first step in an armed mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the ex-con who rose to become Russia’s most infamous battlefield commander. From there, the Wagner forces began a march on Moscow until Prigozhin abruptly ordered his men to turn around and return to their bases. In the space of 24 hours, the full madness of Vladimir Putin’s dictatorship was on display. The blowback of his attack on Ukraine was symbolized by a Wagner tank, marked with the letter “Z,” which stands for the Kremlin’s war effort, pointing not at Ukrainians but other Russians.

:snippity:

Despite the drama of the situation, a mutiny by Russia’s scariest people should not come as a surprise. The Kremlin allowed Prigozhin to recruit in prisons, which filled Wagner’s fighting force with desperate convicts. Prigozhin has long been the Kremlin’s man for dirty deeds, from interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election with his so-called troll farm to fighting undercover in Ukraine, Syria, and the Central African Republic. The Kremlin could deny any connection to Prigozhin, and Prigozhin, of course, denied hiring trolls and warriors. When an unknown number of Wagner contractors in Syria were killed by U.S. forces in 2018, the Kremlin response was muted, since officially they were not members of Russia’s armed forces.

It’s likely that Putin originally imagined Wagner as a Russian version of Blackwater, the U.S. private military contractor that came to prominence in the Iraq War. Wagner mercenaries in Syria and Africa played the part, wearing baseball caps and wraparound sunglasses while toting serious guns. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, Prigozhin stepped out of the shadows to claim ownership of Wagner—and credit for its costly victories. A sledgehammer became the unofficial symbol of the Wagner Group after Prigozhin said one of his fighters had been executed with the tool as punishment for switching to the Ukrainian side.
I think this is what was meant by "worse people than Putin." As much as we hate tfg, would we want Eric Prince in his place?
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#669

Post by Dave from down under »

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-26/ ... /102521156

For the briefest moment, it looked like Vladimir Putin's back was against the wall.

His one-time ally and warlord, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led a stunning 24-hour uprising that represented the greatest threat to the Russian strongman's power in two decades.

But just as Prigozhin claimed his Wagner mercenaries were 200 kilometres out of Moscow, he mysteriously backed down.

Despite calling his old friend's insurrection a "stab in the back", Putin suddenly agreed to drop the charges against him and his men.

"There was a higher goal — to avoid bloodshed, to avoid internal confrontation, to avoid clashes with unpredictable results," a Kremlin spokesman said.

One man has emerged as a key player in ending this wild saga: Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
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#670

Post by Dave from down under »

I’m going to make a prediction

Wagner will relocate its base to Belarus and its overseas contracts (which are lucrative).

Wagner will also get internal security contracts within Belarus.

Then in 2-3 years Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will fall out of a window and Yevgeny Prigozhin will either be on the throne or the power behind it.
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#671

Post by keith »

Dave from down under wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 6:24 pm I’m going to make a prediction

Wagner will relocate its base to Belarus and its overseas contracts (which are lucrative).

Wagner will also get internal security contracts within Belarus.

Then in 2-3 years Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will fall out of a window and Yevgeny Prigozhin will either be on the throne or the power behind it.
I've been thinking along the same lines. Wagner as the enforcer in Belarus.

But then my thoughts tend to drift towards Byelorussia rejoining Russia and Lukashenko making a play for the throne.
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#672

Post by Sequoia32 »

Don't know if this is the right place to put this, but:

What do you all think T**** would have done if he was president now?

Reports, as posted above, say Biden and others knew this was going to happen.

Would t**** have gabbed on social media?

Warned Putin?

Something crazier?


Thank goodness Biden is President for yet another reason!
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#673

Post by Dave from down under »

If Donnie was President, then Ukraine would have been defeated and NATO dismembered.
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#674

Post by bill_g »

I'm surprised the OSG hasn't claimed credit for stopping Prigozhin's advance already. Perhaps he'll wait a month - wait for people's memories to wane, and then let it slip he was involved. From there, he'll embroider the story a stitch at a time until he had numerous calls with Putin, Prigozhin, and Lukashenko that quickly resolved the matter.
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#675

Post by Slim Cognito »

bill_g wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 8:00 am I'm surprised the OSG hasn't claimed credit for stopping Prigozhin's advance already. Perhaps he'll wait a month - wait for people's memories to wane, and then let it slip he was involved. From there, he'll embroider the story a stitch at a time until he had numerous calls with Putin, Prigozhin, and Lukashenko that quickly resolved the matter.
And they all had tears in their eyes, calling him sir.
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