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Russia Invades Ukraine

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Sam the Centipede
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1676

Post by Sam the Centipede »

Admit it guys, you're wondering whenthe remaining railroad track and roadway lanes will attract more high explosives!

No need to wait for Putin's 71st birthday; he deserves an early Christmas present with fireworks.

When that happens I suspect there might be more fatal falls in Moscow, some from basement windows.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1677

Post by MN-Skeptic »

Interesting article -

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#1678

Post by Mr brolin »

Looking at the blast, it appears, in the video seen, to come from the right, from below, rolling over the road bridge then the explosion front hitting across the road bridge up into the rail bed. Ain't no lorry bomb

A missile from above would have punched a hole down and through the bridge.
A missile hitting laterally, at our close to the level of the road bed, would have removed a big old chunk of the bridge as well as"pushing" the debris in a cone across to the rail level.

The explosion lifted then pancaked down the road by dropping it, almost whole into the water with the blast continuing up and across.

My bet, water borne delivery, big old fuel air/thermobaric bomb, detonated just above the water line. Blast would lift up the road bed, roll over, the initial blast would be reflected off the water giving extra impetus which may explain the dark secondary blast cloud seen in the video.
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#1679

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#1680

Post by Foggy »

Yeah, I had my suspicions that it was not a truck bomb, but I wanted to wait until I learned if others thought so. The damage to two separate areas of the bridge was a tipoff. But I fear the damage is mostly symbolic, they'll have it back in operation soon.
Out from under. :thumbsup:
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#1681

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#1682

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#1683

Post by W. Kevin Vicklund »

Looking at the damage, a truck bomb (Timothy McVeigh style) very well could explain what we see. Bomb explodes on the span just left (in the picture; the rail is to the back) of the support. This not only breaks the span, it damages the support. The far end of the next span appears to be an expansion joint. As the first span collapses it pulls the second span away from the expansion joint, causing a complete separation (shockwave may also contribute to this). The first span hinges at the first support to the left, pulling the entire section to the right. At the very edge of the picture, you can see another separation at an expansion joint.

Common bridge construction: 4 spans per section. Supports as follows: expansion joint (sliding support, not attached), rolling support (supported by hinged rollers, not attached), solid attachment, rolling support, expansion joint. You can add additional rolling supports, but that requires larger expansion joints.
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#1684

Post by Volkonski »

Putin orders seizure of Exxon-led Sakhalin 1 oil and gas project

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-10-07/
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Friday that establishes a new operator for the Exxon Mobil Corp-led (XOM.N) Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia's Far East.

Putin's move affecting Exxon's largest investment in Russia mimics a strategy he used to seize control of other energy properties in the country.

The decree gives the Russian government authority to decide whether foreign shareholders can retain stakes in the project.

Exxon holds a 30% operator stake in Sakhalin-1, with Russian company Rosneft (ROSN.MM), India's ONGC Videsh (ONVI.NS) and Japan's SODECO as partners.

Oil production at the Sakhalin-1 project fell to just 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July from 220,000 bpd before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Putin can seize whatever the Russian government will let him. But Exxon Mobil was the operator. When EM left so did all the EM expertise and experience.

Russian petroleum projects have foreign partners and operators because Russia does not have such expertise.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#1685

Post by RTH10260 »

Not to forget that with foreign (western) management the plants will have been fitted out with the best western technology available under normal restrictions. Similar to the airline industry the petro industry will no longer be able to order hitec replacement parts, apart that no western engineers will be available to fix complex stuff. Russian expertise will likely be limited.
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#1686

Post by Greatgrey »

Vladimir decided to retaliate for the bridge.

What's the Frequency, Kenneth?
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#1687

Post by tek »

I can't shake this feeling that the bridge operation was a false flag.
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#1688

Post by Dave from down under »

tek wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:27 am I can't shake this feeling that the bridge operation was a false flag.
If it was, then it blew up in Vlad’s face.

It makes him look weak and incompetent
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#1689

Post by Foggy »

Tek, there are a lot of people that I would just blow off, but you are not one of those. What makes you suspect a false flag? I hadn't even considered the possibility.
Out from under. :thumbsup:
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#1690

Post by tek »

Two things, I guess:
- I don't see Ukraine wanting to mess around with Crimea right now. Yeah, they consider it part of their country, but I'm sure they also know an attack on Crimea would enrage Russia. Ukraine has enough to deal with as it is.
- Seems like an awfully good fit for Putin's "terrorism" claim. Somewhat interesting that Russia is sticking with the "truck full of fertilizer" claim, which is a handy "terrorism" message.

I'm not a student of military and/or psychological tactics, so this is just a feeling. But it isn't sitting well with me. And I did not stay at a Holiday Inn last night.
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#1691

Post by Dave from down under »

True..

A suicide truck bomb just doesn’t fit well with the Ukrainian approach to the war to date.

But Russia does have other enemies.. and Putin does have other internal enemies.

As pro-Russian propaganda - it hasn’t really worked.
Blowing up a Russian school/hospital might rally some support to Russia.

A bridge used to support the Russian war effort just doesn’t have the same “pull”.
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Post by RTH10260 »

This Financial Times article discusses the truck bomb variant and reasons why is could likle be a set up by Russia
What caused the blast on the bridge to Crimea?
Most evidence points to a truck bomb, as Kyiv holds off on claiming responsibility for the attack

Mehul Srivastava and Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv
YESTERDAY

The attack on the Kerch bridge to Crimea stunned both Ukrainians and Russians with its scale and ingenuity, leaving experts wondering who was responsible for the attack and how it was achieved.

From truck bomb to underwater attack, military experts and analysts have put forward several theories on what caused Saturday’s explosion on the 12-mile road and rail link to the peninsula annexed by Russian president Vladimir Putin in 2014, though their findings are not conclusive.




https://www.ft.com/content/6e807a1a-f5b ... ec3835f13c
FT wrote:Did a truck bomb cause the damage?

The most popular theory was a bomb blast from a white truck identified in online footage. “There was something in the truck that exploded,” said a structural engineer, now in a specialised branch of the Ukrainian military, who analysed the videos. “Something special.”

A fireball appeared on cameras just as the truck was parallel to a train carrying fuel, adding to the conflagration that has reduced traffic on the bridge to single lanes for vehicles and trains. If it was a truck bomb, he said it could indicate that it was followed either from the air or by another vehicle whose pilot or driver could relay the optimal time to detonate. Russian investigators say three people were killed in the explosion, but it is not known whether they were participants or innocent bystanders.
A speculation about a Ukrainian attack
FT wrote:Was a missile used?

Most defence experts think this type of attack was unlikely. The bridge was out of the reach of Kyiv’s US-supplied Himars, a medium-range guided artillery rocket system, and American defence officials had warned that they were not to be used on the bridge, according to a US and a Ukrainian official.

But two homegrown Neptune anti-ship missiles were used to destroy the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, in April, indicating Ukraine’s ability to effectively use this type of airborne attack against Russia, albeit at shorter distances.

Those surprisingly accurate hits suggest that western allies may be providing technical help to fine-tune Ukrainian weapons, analysts say. They have so far turned down Ukrainian requests for longer-range US-made missiles that can be fired from the Himars.

“Check for cloudy weather — thunder, rain?” said a western official, when asked what brought down a section of the bridge. This was perhaps a cryptic reference to the Grim2, a Ukrainian missile with a theoretical range of up to 500km which has been under development for decades.

Grim, and the missile’s earlier name, Grom, are Ukrainian words for thunder. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy also described the weather in Crimea as “cloudy” in his nightly broadcast on Saturday.
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#1693

Post by Mr brolin »

Sorry,

Seen truck bombs, small, medium and WTF sized and that blast was not indicative of a truck bomb.

A truck bomb on top of the road bed would have, as most explosions (shaped and formed charges excepted), tended to explode in all directions pretty equally, a sphere.

The explosive front would hit the bottom of the truck and blow down, typically blowning a vaguelly symmetrical blast pattern below, in other words a somewhat star shaped big hole, not a lift and drop pattern that you see in the section that has collapsed into the water.

The rest of the blast, effectively a rapidly expanded dome of heat and pressure, then pushes out and up in a relatively predictable pattern that causes the rest of the blast damage.

Slow motion truck bomb explosion, you can see the symettry as well as (between about 3.5 and 4.5 seconds) you see the clear air distortion of the blast pushing through the air



Using the Timothy McVeigh example, you can see the "scoop" (the almost debris clean section on the ground center) where the blast went out then up the front of the building before blowing a semi circular front before the top of the builiding collapsed down into the debris field)

Image

The blast in Crimea, based on the relativley little footage we have seen starts, at least partially, beneath and to the right of the road bed then there is a secondary rolling pressure wave right behind the initial blast with a shed load of what look like sparkles. Probably finely powdered aluminum in the explosive to get that extra brisance in the blast as well as increase the temperature.

Then there is the massive logisitcal issue of assembling all of the components for a truck bomb, in a zone of military heightened secuity, driving it through checkpoint etc. Some muppet in the news actually said it was a remotely driven truck, 'cause sure as hell no one would ever suspect a truck with no one at the wheel which somehow had pefect driving ability ........ seriously..?
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Sam the Centipede
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#1694

Post by Sam the Centipede »

I don't buy the false flag idea, not one bit. The bridge was a symbol of Russia's control and the permanence of the annexation. It was a thing of great pride to Putin himself. It is important for Russia's railroad-based logistics in supplying its forces. Its destruction will scare residents of Crimea. The attack suggests (as with the attach on the naval base in Crimea a few weeks ago) to Russians that Crimea is not a safe area and that Ukrainian forces can reach distant targets. Bad publicity and loss of a valuable asset? No. This benefits Russia not one iota.

If Russia wanted a false flag act to scream "terrorists!" (which they were doing anyway), they would select a target that would cause outrage amongst gullible Russians while not impeding their military effort. They would also set it up so their heroic forces would nobly deal with the supposed atrocity. They might blow up something in Russia distant from then front lines so they could claim that Ukraine was sending in sabotage squads so everyone must be on high alert to repel the invaders, preferably by enlisting.

I have no idea how the actual attack was carried out. Ukraine gains no advantage in showing its hand on this. As always, their management of information flow (or lack of such) had been excellent.
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Post by Foggy »

Here's the thing that strikes me about the blast, false flag or not (and I've read all the posts since W. Kevin somebody explained that it could well have been a truck bomb, and he's right), and there's a lot to digest here, but dig it:

What puzzles me is the train.

The train was an important part of the attack, of course. The sight of the train cars full of fuel burning in the morning sunrise made the video, oh, only about eleventy times more dramatic than it would have been without them. The photographers were ecstatic - man, you could see that thing burning for miles.

And now that we learn the attack was almost more symbolic than strategic, it seems fairly clear that the train was a necessary part of the targeting by whoever did this. The train cars even seemed to survive the fire.

But timing the bomb - whatever it was - to explode on the roadway side of the bridge at the precisely correct moment to set the freakin' train on fire ... well, that doesn't seem like it would be easy. And I'm almost 70 and I still don't know whether I believe in coincidences or not, but that's a awful suspicious coincidence IMHO.

Still reading about it, though. Still muttering and puttering,like I do. :oldman:
Out from under. :thumbsup:
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#1696

Post by Suranis »

I kind of disagree tat there are no benefits to Putin. Ya its a source of Putin national pride, but it actually benefits him in trying to escalate the threat of the Ukraine war to ordinary Russians. Its showing that Ukraine is attacking inside the Motherland itself so be a patriot and go sign up for the army, red blooded Russian youth! ONWARD IN REVENGE FOR THE BRIDGE!!

Really its the fact that Putin is trying to get soldiers and is trying to escalate this that leave open the possibility to me that he has done this himself. I really haven't a clue if he did it or not. But to say there is no advantage to Putin and all disadvantages in a scenario where he is trying to get things going on another level is wrong, in my view.
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#1697

Post by johnpcapitalist »

Foggy wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:43 am Here's the thing that strikes me about the blast, false flag or not (and I've read all the posts since W. Kevin somebody explained that it could well have been a truck bomb, and he's right), and there's a lot to digest here, but dig it:

What puzzles me is the train.

The train was an important part of the attack, of course. The sight of the train cars full of fuel burning in the morning sunrise made the video, oh, only about eleventy times more dramatic than it would have been without them. The photographers were ecstatic - man, you could see that thing burning for miles.

But timing the bomb - whatever it was - to explode on the roadway side of the bridge at the precisely correct moment to set the freakin' train on fire ... well, that doesn't seem like it would be easy. And I'm almost 70 and I still don't know whether I believe in coincidences or not, but that's a awful suspicious coincidence IMHO.
It may be that hitting the train isn't all that improbable. I'd agree that synchronizing an attack on the bridge to hit a moving train is so difficult that it's unlikely. But several reports have said that surveillance video shows that the train had been stopped for a few minutes, waiting for clearance to proceed. They may have been waiting for track work that closed one of the two tracks on the bridge.

Flight time for an inbound missile would be on the order of 5-10 minutes, depending on the speed and distance. If this was a regularly scheduled fuel train, and if UKR had drone reconnaissance for a number of days to establish a pattern, then they could guess that if the fuel train was held anywhere on the bridge, it would likely be sitting for X minutes, well above the flight time of the missile. So the mission commander would be able to say "the moment we have confirmation that the train has stopped, we'll hit the 'Fire' button" and have a good chance of getting a twofer and hitting not just the road but the train tracks. Taking out a fuel train would have great optics, with the bridge in flames and it wouldn't risk international condemnation like hitting a passenger train would.
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Post by noblepa »

One possibility that I haven't heard mentioned.

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, there had to have been a lot of angry people there. Could this be the work of some Crimean underground resistance movement that thinks it has seen an opportunity to strike back at Russia, while they are seemingly on the ropes?

Such a Crimean underground may or may not be in direct contact or under the direct control of the main Ukrainian armed forces, but I'm sure that there is a lot of sympathy among the Ukrainian populace.
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#1699

Post by Foggy »

Actually, I was thinking more that it might have been set off by radio control, but that would argue against a truck bomb. I had an idea that if they had planted the bomb in advance, then it would be simply a matter of watching from a drone circling near the bridge, and when the train crossed into the right position, send a radio signal to bring the kaboom. That would be the easiest way to make sure of lighting the train up.

I don't know if Ukrainian special forces were involved, but calculating the intersection of a moving train and a moving truck bomb seems a little more complicated. Might be possible, though. Cool trick if you can pull it off.

.
Edit: Maybe I'm giving too much credit, but it would be a very different incident in the media without the burning train. I feel fairly confident that the train was as much a target as the bridge. Or maybe they were just really, really lucky. :shrug:
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#1700

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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