Covid-19 Numbers

[Volkonski]

Study: COVID-19 cases in US may have been substantially undercounted

https://www.kswo.com/2021/03/16/study-c ... ntent=kswo

The study was published Tuesday in the medical journal JAMA.

In the study, researchers tested healthy adults for coronavirus antibodies, and 6.6% of those tested were positive for antibodies despite never reporting symptoms.

The scientists extrapolated that data to estimate that 15.9 million “asymptomatic or undiagnosed” infections had occurred in the U.S. as of Sept. 30.

By contrast, Johns Hopkins University reports the total number of confirmed positive cases was just over 7.2 million at the end of September.

The researchers recommended more population-wide surveillance testing.

[p0rtia]

I'll say. If you're not testing to the max, you're missing a significant percentage of cases (last summer/fall, they said cases were 10 to 20 percent higher than the number reported).

I follow Florida and NY. It is disturbing to see NY's numbers remaining so high post holiday surge. Also, I admit it pisses me off when NY has more positive tests than FL. However, NY's _percentage_ of positives tests has been running about half of Florida's (around 3.0 as opposed to +6). NY tests almost double what Florida tests.

The only numbers that are anywhere near reflective of the actual situation, around the country, are number of hopitalizations in the past year above the norm, and number of deaths above the norm. IMO.

[Lani]

Some COVID watchers are concerned that the number of cases per day has stopped falling for the past two weeks. And, of course, some states have thrown away the use of masks and social distancing while the new variants spread across the states. It will be interesting to see what the new figures are over the next two weeks.

Screenshot_2021-03-18 United States Coronavirus 30,358,880 Cases and 552,470 Deaths - Worldometer.png (19.2 KiB) Viewed 13420 times

[Lani]

Screenshot_2021-03-21 Eric Feigl-Ding on Twitter.png (358.62 KiB) Viewed 13363 times

[Lani]

The new case numbers continue to straight-line instead of reducing.

Screenshot_2021-03-26 United States Coronavirus 30,852,909 Cases and 561,141 Deaths - Worldometer.png (21.15 KiB) Viewed 13297 times

[Volkonski]

Texas hospitalization numbers have done that also. Prelude to another spike?

The new case numbers continue to straight-line instead of reducing.

Screenshot_2021-03-26 United States Coronavirus 30,852,909 Cases and 561,141 Deaths - Worldometer.png

[Lani]

Texas hospitalization numbers have done that also. Prelude to another spike?

The new case numbers continue to straight-line instead of reducing.

Screenshot_2021-03-26 United States Coronavirus 30,852,909 Cases and 561,141 Deaths - Worldometer.png

That's the concern.

[Volkonski]

Laurie Garrett
@Laurie_Garrett
The 4th #COVID19 surge has begun in America

Dr. Tom Frieden
@DrTomFrieden
Covid Epi Weekly: An Epidemic of Vaccine Inequity

As predicted, a US 4th surge appears to be beginning, fueled by variants and reopening. Cases up 7%. Positivity inching up, to 4.7%. Because of vaccination, deaths won't increase substantially. We must solve vaccine inequity. 1/

[Volkonski]

Vinny Arora MD MAPP
@FutureDocs
·
17h
UGH. Michigan hospitalizations surging DESPITE over 30% vaccinated.

->8202 new cases TODAY
-> 12% test positivity rate (ave 7 day)
-> hospitalizations way up (2300 currently inpatient)

#MarchMadness #COVID19
https://clickondetroit.com/health/2021/ ... 9-2021/#//

[Lani]

While still low, cases are rising in Hawaii with the the majority being 18-44 years old. There is talk about more restrictions on Oahu. Maui & the Big Island have rising rates as well.

On Kauai, more vaccination sites have opened - all (4) CVS and Safeway stores now offer it in addition to medical clinics, mass vaccination site, and hospitals. It's a race to get everyone vaccinated before the tourists return - just over a week from now. The county has dropped the age requirements. Technically, it's first responders, essential workers, and 60+. However, the definition of essential workers has expanded to include just about everyone 16 and over (Pfizer) or 18 and over (Moderna).

ETA: If someone still can't qualify under the new, very loose, criteria, they can get vaccinated by signing up to the wait list for extra doses.

[Volkonski]

Laurie Garrett
@Laurie_Garrett
American orphans
"As of Feb2021, 37,300 children 0-to-17 yrs had lost at least 1 parent to #COVID19...20,600 were non-Hispanic White & 7600 were non-Hisp Black...A natural herd immunity strategy...effect of inaction: 116,900 parentally bereaved children."

[Volkonski]

NBC News
@NBCNews
US Covid data

• 30,926,096 cases (per NBC)

• 561,364 deaths (per NBC)

• 168,592,075 vaccine doses administered (per CDC)

• 108,301,234 received at least one shot, 32.6% of US pop (per CDC)

• 63,016,976 fully vaccinated, 19% of US pop (per CDC)

Data as of April 6, 2021

[Lani]

Tourism has returned to Hawaii!

And COVID.

Screenshot_2021-04-06 Hawaii Coronavirus 30,287 Cases and 467 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer.png (7.73 KiB) Viewed 13001 times

Safe Travel (proof of negative test upon arrival) has just started again on Kauai, and today we have 2 visitors who tested positive after arrival. People here are accepting of some risk, but it seems dumb to me that at the same time we reopen schools, increase the size of gatherings, and restart Safe Travels. Going to be interesting....

[Lani]

Screenshot_2021-04-09 Justin Miller on Twitter.png (24.56 KiB) Viewed 12840 times

[Lani]

Here's what's happening. After the number of cases and deaths plateaued, researchers began to worry that another active phase was coming. And so it has.

The US figures show the brief plateau and numbers rising slowly.

Screenshot_2021-04-10 United States .png (68.22 KiB) Viewed 12791 times

However, the increase in cases varies greatly from state to state and from county to county due to presence of the B.1.1.7 variant. Some states have a very low level of it (for now). Florida was thought to be low, but that's changing and just beginning to show the immpact. (Of course, Florida's cases may be under counted.)

Screenshot_2021-04-10 Florida.png (46.71 KiB) Viewed 12791 times

Michigan is being hit hard.

Screenshot_2021-04-10 Michigan.png (46.85 KiB) Viewed 12791 times

B.1.1.7 is quickly rising on Oahu, our most populated island. It also has the slowest rate of vaccinations and a crappy website for vaccine appointments. It has only one site that provides the J&J. All other locations do not give people an option. You get what you get when you show up. The other islands have separate days for each vaccine so you can choose, and that increased the number people who have been vaccinated. The chart shows the rising impact of the variant and the low vaccination rate. As the variant spreads through out the state, numbers will continue to rise. Fortunately, the neighbor islands have been providing the vaccine to everyone 16 and over.

Screenshot_2021-04-10 Hawaii.png (46.01 KiB) Viewed 12791 times

[p0rtia]

Ran into this Bing site this AM and am impressed with both range of data and usability. I associate Bing with MS, so I never use anything called Bing, but I will use this.

https://www.bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates

[AndyinPA]

Ran into this Bing site this AM and am impressed with both range of data and usability. I associate Bing with MS, so I never use anything called Bing, but I will use this.

https://www.bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates

Interesting site. I bookmarked it. Thanks.

[Volkonski]

In Brazil, an alarmingly high number of babies and children are dying of Covid-19
While government data from Brazil suggest that over 800 children under age 9 have died of Covid-19, an expert estimates that the death toll is nearly three times higher.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/bra ... d_nn_tw_ma

The coronavirus has killed an estimated 1,300 babies in Brazil since the beginning of the pandemic, even though there's overwhelming evidence that Covid-19 rarely kills young children.

While data from the Health Ministry suggest that over 800 children under age 9 have died of Covid-19, including about 500 babies, experts say the real death toll is higher because cases are underreported because of a lack of widespread coronavirus testing, according to the BBC, which first reported the story.

Dr. Fatima Marinho of the University of São Paolo, a leading epidemiologist who is a senior adviser to the international non-governmental organization Vital Strategies, estimated that the virus has killed 2,060 children under 9, including 1,302 babies. Her estimate is based on the number of excess deaths from an unspecified acute respiratory syndrome during the pandemic.

There is a misconception that children are at zero risk for Covid-19, Marinho told the BBC after she found that there have been 10 times more deaths from an unexplained respiratory syndrome over the past year compared to previous years.

[Lani]

As variants continue to spread, the curve continues to move higher.

[Volkonski]

COVID-19 cases in Florida since the spring break have surged and deaths from new variants are mounting

https://www.businessinsider.com/florida ... eak-2021-4

The number of coronavirus cases that involve "variants of concern" have surged in Florida since the peak of spring break.

Florida Department of Health figures show that, as of Thursday, there were 5,177 cases that involved variants of concern in the state — six times higher than what was there in mid-March, according to the Orlando Sentinel.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses the term "variants of concern" for mutations of the coronavirus that can spread more easily or be more deadly, or that appear to make current vaccines less effective.

It has identified five variants of concern, and the Sentinel reported that all five were found in Florida in the past few weeks.

[p0rtia]

As a Snowbird who likes numbers, I've been tracking the COVID numbers for NY and FL pretty closely over the pat year. I admit to a prejudice in favor of NY beating the FL numbers, but I try to avoid bias. I've goofed often, and learned a lot.

The numbers support the idea that if you remove the March thru June deaths, when NY was blindsided by COVID, FL does not compare well with NY in terms of deaths. Starting last summer, the medical profession figured out how not to have people die.

But I hear repeatedly that FL is in the middle of the pack, and comparable with NY in terms of cases. Worldometer and almost all other trackers count the reported cases. Now, FL surpassed NY last fall, but lately they've been neck and neck.

However, the positivity case rate for FL since last summer has been roughly double or triple that of NY--exactly what you'd expect given the fact that NY tests at least twice as much as FL. I've always assumed that FL's actual number of infections is way higher than the reported numbers. And boy has that bugged me.

So today I cruised the IHME site, which has changed its parameters a few times of the past year, and discovered that they've added "estimated infections" alongside "confirmed infections." I note with no joy but grim satisfaction that they give Florida's confirmed infections for April 18 as 4,200 and estimated infections as 17,500. Whereas in NY it was 5,600 and 7,100.

Some others, reported/confirmed v estimated:

South Dakota: 66 vs. 261
PA: 3,00 v 9,200
Michigan: 4,500 v 17,800
TexasL 4,000 v 12,000

So sick of people measuring trends using reported cases, yes I am. It is not the true story. Positivity, hospitalizations, deaths above historical average: These remain the most accurate metrics to track what's happening, where.

[Lani]

Of course, fogbowzers know that the coronavirus has infected more people than than what is recorded.

Hawaii will see a one-time jump in its total count of coronavirus cases today after the state Department of Health adds in about 1,600 probable cases that it’s kept track of since the start of the pandemic.

State health officials also will record probable cases in their future daily case counts, which in the near term could add an extra 10 to 20 cases a week.

The probable cases include people who never received a confirmatory test but are believed to have had the virus because of their known exposure and symptoms.

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/05/ ... t-by-1600/

[Lani]

I saw today that US deaths have reached 600,000. Actually, Worldometer reached that number about a month ago. I mentioned somewhere in the forum that Hawaii was claimed by a federal agency to have reached over 80% vaccinated. The state figures put it just above 60%.

Apparently, I am not hallucinating about incorrect numbers.

Federal and state numbers on Hawaii vaccination rates have differed for months
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/06/ ... or-months/

Significant discrepancies between federal and state data on vaccination rates in Hawaii paint different pictures of how close the state is to achieving the 70% threshold that Gov. David Ige has set for dropping all COVID- 19 restrictions, including constraints on businesses and requirements that people wear masks indoors while in public settings.

Indeed, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts Hawaii on the verge of freedom from the complicated county tier systems that govern activities, with 68.4% of the state population, or 968,008 people, receiving at least one dose of a vaccine. If the CDC data posted Monday is correct, then it could be just a few more weeks until 70% of the population is fully vaccinated and life largely returns to normal.

But state officials say the federal data is wrong, and despite inquires with the CDC over the past two weeks, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser wasn’t able to get much of an explanation for what is driving the differences. State Department of Health data says that just 61% of the population, or 860,369 people, has received at least one shot, suggesting that it could be several more months before the state reaches its goal of fully vaccinating 70% of the population.

Differences between state and federal data have persisted for months, but with the state integrating vaccination rates into its metrics for reopening, it’s all the more important that data be accurate, not just for public health, but also for businesses seeking to recover.


“It’s challenging,” said Carl Bonham, executive director of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. “Obviously, because our policies are based on it, it would be nice to reconcile things.”

UHERO has been using the CDC data to model the state’s projected economic recovery. [OOPS]

[Volkonski]

Missouri is a hotspot for the delta variant.

[filly]

Missouri patient in his 40s ‘so sorry’ he didn’t get the COVID vaccine. Then he died
BY LAURA BAUER
JULY 02, 2021 11:56 AM, UPDATED JULY 02, 2021 04:11 PM


The email from a nurse manager about a patient’s death from COVID-19 “grabbed me,” CoxHealth system director of public relations said.

It told the vivid story of what health care workers in the Ozarks are facing as hospital beds are filling again, this time with cases from the delta variant. The numbers are skyrocketing in Branson and rural areas, and the vaccination rate is so low it’s made national news.

So Kaitlyn McConnell wrote about the email and posted it on the health system’s Facebook page Wednesday night.


“A patient we had yesterday is tragically not with us today,” her post read. “... A COVID-19 nurse manager shared with me a very impactful story from a patient in his 40s in the COVID unit who passed last night. We had him for a week and, unfortunately, he continued to deteriorate to the point requiring intubation.

“Prior to intubating, he became very tearful. He told the nurses he didn’t think he needed to get vaccinated and now wishes he had, and he was so sorry.”



Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/m ... rylink=cpy