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Even Tucker is PANICKING. Is the GOP turning into the party of bedwetters?
Tucker Carlson: The Red Wave Is Not Guaranteed, The Numbers Don't Show It Despite Biden's Well-Earned Unpopularity
Posted By Tyler Stone On Date August 19, 2022
Tucker Carlson's opening monologue on August 18, 2022:
TUCKER CARLSON:
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Unpopular presidents drag their parties to the bottom in midterm elections. That's the unchanging rule of politics. You saw it famously in 1994 with the Republican takeover of Congress after two disastrous years of Bill Clinton. You saw it in 2006 after Hurricane Katrina. You saw it in 2010 after ObamaCare. You saw it in 2018.
So, there's no question based on precedent that that's about to happen once again in 2022, in November. That's what everybody assumes and in fact, it may well happen. We're certainly praying for it, but as of tonight, we have to be honest with you, the numbers don't show that happening. Not even close. In fact, all the indications we have right now suggest that despite Joe Biden's well-earned unpopularity, the Democratic Party still, again, as of tonight, has a strong chance of holding Congress in November.
The prediction markets, which many believe are more accurate than the polls, overwhelmingly point to the Democrats keeping at least one chamber and maybe strangest of all, as of this week, Democrats are leading Republicans nationally in the so-called generic ballot by about four points. So, if you ask people, "Which party do you like more?" they say Democrats. And maybe that's why Democrats are raising a lot more money, too and not just money from their patrons in big tech, but from small-dollar donors. That's bad.
In June, Democrats raised $64 million online from 4 million people. That same month, this June, Republicans raised only $26 million online from just over a million donors. From the first quarter to the second quarter of this year, donations to the Republican Party dropped by more than 12%. By contrast, donations to the Democratic Party are up more than 20%. That is not good at all, not simply because you need money to run a political campaign, but because money is, to some extent, a measure of commitment and intensity and you see the same dynamic playing out in individual races across the country.
For example, last quarter, Raphael Warnock, that would be the thoroughly mediocre Democratic senator from Georgia, the guy who was caught on video appearing to commit spousal abuse (Remember that?) that guy raised more than $12 million online. His opponent, Herschel Walker, who everyone likes, raised less than half of that. So far, Raphael Warnock has raised an astounding amount of money. He's hauled in more dollars online than seven Republican senatorial candidates combined: Candidates in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Georgia combined. Herschel Walker is now trailing Raphael Warnock by ten points and this is happening in a state they tell us went for Joe Biden by a margin of about one-third of a percentage point. That is bizarre. What is going on here? It's not just happening in Georgia.
Full transcript & video at
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... arity.html
More relevant for President Joe Biden are the midterm elections that took place during President Bill Clinton's second term. Despite Clinton facing impeachment, Democrats picked up five seats in the House in 1998. At a moment when it seemed that Clinton was as weak as could be, some Democrats focused on the extremism of the GOP, painting Speaker Newt Gingrich and his allies as extreme partisans more interested in investigation and scandal than governing. The strategy worked. Though Republicans retained control of Congress, Democrats dealt a blow to the GOP in the House, contributing in large part to the Republican caucus' decision to pressure Gingrich to step down.
There might be a similar dynamic in 2022. The Trump-endorsed candidates are already causing problems for a Republican Party that might have previously thought they would glide into congressional power. Several Republican candidates in key Senate races have made unforced errors, giving Democrats unexpected opportunities in states like Pennsylvania. The specter of the January 6 committee and the ongoing shock and awe from the multiple investigations dogging the former president might influence enough pockets of independent voters in decisive states. In the next few months, Democrats might be able to soften the blows or even retain power in the Senate if they are able to frame this election as the choice between a party that governs and a radicalized party primarily interested in burning down the house.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/19/opinions ... ms-zelizer
Democrats know how to look at calendars. Obviously, bad news should be front-loaded, or, say, released while everybody is away for the Summer. Then in September and October, good things happen. It's always been like this. So now we're starting to see improvements in gas prices, inflation and the other GOP talking points. The GOP is also helping with "candidate quality" and extremely unpopular decisions like Dobbs.
Democrats are going to win again. Let's keep registering voters, checking in with friends and family to make sure they're planning to vote, and supporting our candidates on social media.