Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

[W. Kevin Vicklund]

When we flip 2 seats in November he can go back to hosting Rotary Club Midget Porn on his boat with the Republicans.

You realize Rule 34 implies it probably does, in fact, exist, since you could conceive of it

A simple search appears to verify this. I did not click the links.

[Gregg]

When we flip 2 seats in November he can go back to hosting Rotary Club Midget Porn on his boat with the Republicans.

You realize Rule 34 implies it probably does, in fact, exist, since you could conceive of it

Dude, I have a link on my desktop

[SuzieC]

According to Mindy Fischer latest Suffolk poll has great news for Dems. Fox is suppressing it of course:

"LOL Okay, FB is throttling the Fox News article I just posted so the vast majority of you aren't seeing it. So let me just share it like this. New polling (Suffolk University/USA Today) shows that the Dems are now +4 ahead of Repubs in the generic House ballot. It looks even better in the Senate races. And abortion has pulled ahead of inflation for the thing most important to voters this cycle. My point of posting the Fox article was that even they are admitting the Republicans are in trouble."

[Slim Cognito]

Just waiting for DeSantis to declare he's signing legislation making it illegal for anyone registered as a D to vote bc it might make Republicans feel bad.

I've seriously thought about re-registering as an I, independent but I'd miss out on the primaries.

[much ado]

Some rather detailed analysis in the Daily Kos that includes current status of various races...

Daily Kos: Path to a Democratic Victory in 2022

A summary excerpt...

What Democrats Need To Do To Win the 2022 Elections

The number one thing is to stop listening to the DC chattering class and get focused on organizing and turning out the vote.

Let’s do a quick review:

• The Republican Party approval rating has dropped 10 points since May, 24 among Independents.

• The generic Democratic horserace number has been moving in the right direction ever since the Roe decision, and is now in a dead heat.

• The Democratic enthusiasm-for-voting number now exceeds the Republican number.

• All four incumbent Democratic senators lead in their races, and three of our Senate challenger candidates are ahead, while four others are in or close to a statistical dead heat.

• The Republican issue agenda is horribly unpopular, while ours is highly popular.

• A great many of the Republican candidates running this year are extremist goofballs.

• On the Republicans’ strongest issue, inflation, we have a strong, credible counter message.

[bob]

Assuming the Democrats take Pennsylvania and don't lose any seats (e.g., Georgia, Nevada), where's the second pick up?

[New Turtle]

Assuming the Democrats take Pennsylvania and don't lose any seats (e.g., Georgia, Nevada), where's the second pick up?

Ohio

[Gregg]

Assuming the Democrats take Pennsylvania and don't lose any seats (e.g., Georgia, Nevada), where's the second pick up?

Ohio, JD Vance is about as popular in Ohio as a Revenuer snooping around the holler in Argillite.

[Foggy]

Jeazess H. Kreist.

We're going to win in November, but we lost Roe v. Wade.

That's not a tradeoff I would ever have chosen. Words cannot express my sadness.

[bob]

Assuming the Democrats take Pennsylvania and don't lose any seats (e.g., Georgia, Nevada), where's the second pick up?

Ohio

I will honor the thread's creator and not comment here about that race.

[Dr. Ken]

[Luke]

1.

#VOTEBlue "Poll: House Dems, Republicans Locked in Statistical Dead Heat for Midterms". Mark Penn (of all people): "GOP is seen as too far to the right for moderate Democrats and so they have not closed the sale on the midterms". Newsmax (of all places):
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/house ... d/1081291/

Poll: House Dems, Republicans Locked in Statistical Dead Heat for Midterms
By Jay Clemons | Monday, 01 August 2022 07:22 PM EDT

A new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey has House Republicans and Democrats locked in a statistical dead heat headed into the November midterm elections, at 50% apiece. The new survey represents a mild shift from the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll's May numbers, in which the GOP led by two percentage points over the Democrats (51% to 49%).

Republicans are losing ground with swing voters — including moderate Democrats — according to Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey. "Despite poor ratings for the administration and big concerns about inflation, the Republican Party is still seen as too far to the right for these moderate Democrats and so they have not closed the sale on the midterms," says Penn. It's not uncommon for the political party of the U.S. president to lose House and Senate seats during his first term in office.

However, unlike previous midterm elections, the minority party (in this case, the Republicans in 2022) only needs a small momentum swing to overtake both chambers — a net-positive of four seats in the House, and just a net of one seat to control the Senate.
***
According to Harvard CAPS-Harris, neither the Republican Party (48%) nor Democratic Party (43%) have favorability ratings above 50%. And regarding specific issues, Harvard/Harris says that inflation remains the greatest concern for 49% of likely GOP voters, but 36% for likely Democrat voters.

The second most-pressing issue, according to Harvard/Harris, is abortion rights — with 20% of Democrats voters prioritizing this matter for the November midterms. However, just 8% of GOP voters ranked abortion rights as the most pressing concern. The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey heard from 1,885 registered voters over a two-day period last week (July 27-28).

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/house ... d/1081291/




2.

OrlyLicious @Orly_licious 35s
#BidenBoom Even Fox News & Breitbart give President Biden credit:
Jesse Watters: #AlQaeda “Well, obviously a great win for the United States & a clear victory over terrorism." Bret Baier: “Jesse. I mean, listen, this has been a couple of good weeks for Biden."
#VoteBlue2022

3. SUPER BONUS from Gateway House of Boys!

Sad but Predictable: RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel Predicts GOP Will Only Gain 4 House Seats in Midterms (VIDEO)
By Jim Hoft Published August 1, 2022 at 9:15am

Ronna Romney McDaniel was on Varney and Co. this morning. McDaniel is famous for blowing a landslide presidential election win and allowing it to be stolen by a candidate with dementia who never left his basement.

** McDaniel did nothing when GOP observers were removed from the ballot counting rooms in the battleground states.
** McDaniel did nothing after Democrats dropped tens of thousands of illegal ballots into the state totals in the early morning following the 2020 election.
** McDaniel did nothing when Democrats continued to deliver hundreds of thousands of mysterious votes into the counting rooms days after the elections.
** McDaniel did nothing to address the illegal ballot drop boxes.
** McDaniel took cash from Trump supporters promising to use it to fight the fraud but there is NO evidence that this ever happened.
** McDaniel and the RNC blew off the January 6 protests and partied at the Ritz on Amelia Island instead.
** Where was McDaniel and the RNC as Trump supporters were tossed into prison for standing outside or walking inside the US Capitol on January 6?

The RNC and Romney McDaniel blew it. They offer the American people nothing as the communist Democrats rip apart and destroy this country.

On Monday Ronna McDaniel went on with Stuart Varney. When he asked her how many seats the Republicans will pick up in the midterms all she could promise is FOUR.

McDaniel and the RNC need to get out of the way.

And working Americans need to finally admit that this Republican Party is weak, ineffective and a subsidiary of the DNC.

The RNC is not up for the fight at hand, to save the country from the communist left.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/0 ... rms-video/

[Dr. Ken]

That newsmax is saying this is something.

[Tiredretiredlawyer]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7 ... undraising

Republicans confront massive drop-off in online fundraising

It's hard to know if it's just Republicans' terribly sub-par candidates or the foul smell wafting off the GOP more generally, but whatever the reason, the party's online fundraising has hit a wall, according to the New York Times.

While donations typically ramp up as the election draws nearer, exactly the opposition has happened. A Times analysis of the GOP grassroots fundraising platform WinRed found a 12% decrease from first to second quarter in the total amount donated to all federal Republican campaigns. But the slowdown has also affected the major GOP campaign committees along with Donald Trump's political operation.

Making matters even worse, the Democrats' online donations through Act Blue jumped more than 21% in the second quarter, an increase that nearly doubled the GOP's downturn.

In case you're wondering what that looks like, it looks like this.

FYNY_VIXgAEr4_A.jpeg (121.9 KiB) Viewed 849 times

[humblescribe]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet. It's the sixth inning. Still a lotta baseball to play. Twelve outs can be tough.

[bob]

Assuming the Democrats take Pennsylvania and don't lose any seats (e.g., Georgia, Nevada), where's the second pick up?

Ohio

"For completeness," 538 now is predicting the Democrats will retain the Senate (with a 50-50 tie, to be broken by the veep).

And 538 believes the most likely states for a second (or even third) pickup are North Carolina and Wisconsin.

[Dr. Ken]

[Luke]

The story about those results is at https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-instit ... us_080322/

And here's a chart:

Monmouth 50-43.jpg (39.54 KiB) Viewed 705 times

[Dr. Ken]

This is pretty ambitious on fivethirtyeight's part
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo

2022senate.jpg (102.93 KiB) Viewed 666 times

[bob]

Now up to 59! Just last week the Republicans were favored to win the Senate.

The less fun news is 538 doesn't believe the Democrats will gain a seat (let alone two).

[SuzieC]

I don't understand 538's model but it doesn't matter. It's still too early for predictions to be accurate but all signs are favorable.

[Luke]

Today Moscow Mitch backtracked and said the Senate will be close. This is a huge change. We all know the headwinds, but this topic is for positive news and today's is that the "red wave" talk is being dampened by GOP leaders.

McConnell manages midterm expectations after Trump-backed candidates win
BY ALEXANDER BOLTON - 08/03/22 8:54 PM ET

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is managing expectations about how many Senate seats are likely to flip in the midterm election after Trump-backed candidates who have perpetuated election fraud conspiracies advanced on Tuesday. McConnell previously predicted the 2022 midterms would be “very good” for Republicans, citing President Biden’s low approval rating and the historical trend of the president’s party losing seats in the middle of their first term in office.

But the success of candidates backed by former President Trump, who have echoed his unfounded claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election, and the erratic performance of other Senate GOP hopefuls have put a damper on expectations of a Republican tidal wave in November.

McConnell sought to manage expectations Wednesday in an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier when asked about the prospects of Republicans in several key races. “I think it’s going to be very tight. We have a 50-50 nation. And I think when this Senate race smoke clears, we’re likely to have a very, very close Senate still, with us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly,” McConnell said Wednesday evening on Fox’s “Special Report.”

McConnell delivered his sober-sounding analysis when Baier asked him about Republican candidates such as J.D. Vance, Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker struggling against their Democratic opponents in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Georgia, respectively, in recent polls.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/358 ... dates-win/

[SuzieC]

Yes! So glad national correspondents, even on Fox, are saying JD Vance is struggling in Ohio. We just saw our first JD Vance ad since the primaries on our local evening news. It was a feel-good ad with his attractive (though non-Appalachian Ohio) wife saying Ohio gave JD a chance and so should voters.

[Dr. Ken]

McConnell better keep his promise and resign if the Republicans don't take the senate

[Gregg]

Fuck him.... poser.

I think Wisconsin is a possibility, too. I mean, Ron Johnson is now running on "let's cancel Social Security and Medicare and make them something Congress has to reapprove every year" which can't be as popular say, sticking your finger in a light socket.