Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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Cross-posting

The Hill
Poll: Bloomberg overtakes Biden in Florida

Michael Bloomberg is leading the pack of Democratic presidential hopefuls in Florida, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls, a sign that the former New York City mayor has picked up traction in a crucial swing state before most of his rivals have even started to campaign there.

The poll shows Bloomberg with 27.3 percent support in the Sunshine State, up 10 points from a similar poll released late last month. Biden, meanwhile, has seen his support in Florida plummet, falling from more than 41 percent in January to 25.9 percent this month.

Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are jockeying for third place in the state, notching 10.5 percent and 10.4 percent respectively, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar sits in fifth with 8.6 percent support.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and billionaire activist Tom Steyer round out the top seven in the poll with 4.8 percent and 1.3 percent support respectively.

Florida’s Democratic presidential primary is still more than a month away. But the St. Pete poll suggests that Bloomberg’s aggressive spending has allowed him to build early name recognition in the nation’s largest and most volatile general election battleground.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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Newsweek
Bernie Sanders Overtakes Joe Biden in Texas, Former Vice President Holds Strong Lead in Georgia: Polls

Senator Bernie Sanders has vaulted into a narrow lead over former vice president Joe Biden in the key Texas primary, which has the largest African American population of any state and the second-highest number of delegates up for grabs in the overall race, according to a poll.

A separate poll shows Biden leading strongly in Georgia, which has the second-largest number of African Americans, with Sanders a distant second. Biden talks up his appeal to African Americans, noting that no candidate can win the White House without their support.

The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll put Sanders at 24 percent among Democratic primary voters in the state, a 12 point rise from October when the independent from Vermont was in fourth. Biden was second at 22 percent in the new poll, down one point and one place. ...

Over in Georgia, Biden leads Sanders. A Landmark Communications poll for WSB-TV of 500 likely Democratic primary voters put Biden in first place at 32.1 percent. Sanders was in second at 14.2 percent and Bloomberg third at 14 percent. There is a 4.4 percent margin of error either way.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#278

Post by RVInit »

Oh, don't worry. Bloomberg has his own "emails". Between stop and frisk and redlining remarks the media has already repeated the stop and frisk thing multiple times all day every day for days on end at this point. Just like those emails. Regardless of how I feel about him, this is the same crap they pulled on Clinton. Non stop talking about the short list (in Clinton's case a list of one thing) they can repeat over and over and over again.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#279

Post by bob »

For the first time since the inception of its delegate predictor, 538 is predicting the candidate to receive a majority of the pledged delegates will be ... no one.

Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg(!), in that order, are the most likely to receive the plurality. This all looks to be in reaction to Bloomberg starting to show up in some polls, especially some Super Tuesday states' polls.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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NPR
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll: Sanders Leads, Bloomberg Qualifies For Debate

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has opened up a double-digit lead in the Democratic nominating contest, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

Sanders has 31% support nationally, up 9 points since December, the last time the poll asked about Democratic voters' preferences.

His next closest contender has 19%. But that second-place rival is former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Many Americans have become familiar with Bloomberg lately in this race because of his ubiquitous TV ads. ...

Third among Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents is former Vice President Joe Biden with 15%, down 9 points since December.

Following Biden is Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 12%, also down from December — by 5 percentage points — after poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Next is Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 9%. She's up from 4% in December after surprisingly good finishes in the first two contests, and she has leaped ahead of Pete Buttigieg in this national survey. ...

The one thing Biden can continue to hang his hat on is how well he does against President Trump. All of the top six Democrats the poll tested beat Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but Biden does best, beating Trump by 6 points and the only candidate to reach 50%.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#281

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Zogby Analytics: The Zogby Poll®: Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner! Michael Bloomberg powers into second place

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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#282

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New York Times OpEd - Adam Jentleson
Why Don’t We Know Which Democratic Candidate Can Beat Trump?

We seem to know less than we did at the beginning of the primary.

The Democratic presidential primary is starting to feel less like a political contest and more like an existential experiment. In the era of big data and after a year of micro-analyzing every little twist and turn, we seem to know less than we did at the beginning. In an era when we’re supposed to know everything, we somehow seem to know nothing.

The frustration is compounded by the feeling that we’re not asking all that much. Most Democratic voters aren’t asking a lot of questions. They’re just desperate to know the answer to a single, simple one: Who has the best chance of beating President Trump?

With more public polls than ever, more data scientists on the payrolls of major news organizations and a preponderance of poll-aggregating and analytical sites, it feels entirely reasonable to expect to know the answer by now.

Yet despite all the data and all the analysis, the universe appears dead set on defying our simple wish for an answer, and gleefully raising more questions instead. To the extent that we can put our finger on any reliable facts, many of them are slippery and two-sided.

Let’s review what we (sort of) know.

A stable race is suddenly not.

For the past year, the race orbited reliably around Joe Biden. He was in a tier by himself. Candidates in the tier below him traded positions and some dropped out, but nothing about the fundamental structure of the race changed. Mr. Biden may still bounce back, but the force he exerted on the race appears to be a thing of the past.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#283

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Politico: Sanders surges to double-digit lead in new nationwide poll

Bernie Sanders' support has climbed 9 points to 31 percent since December, when the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll last asked about candidate preferences.


Sen. Bernie Sanders solidified his frontrunner status on Tuesday in the race to win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, building a double-digit lead over the rest of the field in a poll released ahead of Saturday's Nevada caucuses.

It was Mike Bloomberg who seized many of the early headlines from the release of the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, which qualified the billionaire self-funder for his first appearance at a Democratic presidential debate. But the former New York mayor finished second in the poll behind Sanders, who finished 12 percentage points clear of second-place Bloomberg.

Sanders' support climbed 9 points to 31 percent from December, when the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll last asked about candidate preferences, while Boomberg's support spiked by 15 points to 19 percent. The Vermont senator continued to lead among progressives and those under 45, the poll showed, but he also leads with women and college graduates as well as those without college degrees. He is second among black voters, within the margin of error, behind former Vice President Joe Biden.

Bloomberg led in the poll with moderates and voters over 45, was second with women and third among black voters.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#284

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CNBC
Sanders leads by double digits in latest NBC/WSJ poll as Biden sinks, Bloomberg rises

WASHINGTON - Bernie Sanders has opened up a double digit lead nationally over his closest rivals in the Democratic presidential primary, where Michael Bloomberg’s rise appears to have scrambled the race, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday.

The Vermont senator has the support of 27% of Democratic primary voters, a figure which is unchanged from January, the survey found. Sanders’ unchanged support comes despite having won a decisive victory in New Hampshire’s first in the nation primary last week, and an apparent win in Iowa’s chaotic caucus the week before.

Twelve points behind Sanders is former Vice President Joe Biden, whose support in the poll has plummeted to 15% in the past month, down from a previous high of 26%. Following closely behind Biden is the billionaire former mayor of New York City, with 14% support, tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

During the past month, Bloomberg has climbed 5 points in the poll, a rise fueled in part by Bloomberg’s decision to by spend more than $400 million on a barrage of national TV and internet ads. Warren’s support, meanwhile, has fallen four points nationally since December.

Behind Warren and Bloomberg, former South Bend, Ind. mayor Pete Buttigieg grew his national support to 13% in February, up 5 points from the previous NBC/WSJ poll.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., billionaire Tom Steyer and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-HI all trailed Buttigieg, with 7%, 2% and 1% support from respondents respectively.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#285

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FiveThirtyEight: Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Sanders 25.3%
Bloomberg 16.3%
Biden 16.0%
Warren 11.6%
Buttigieg 10.9%
Klobuchar 5.2%
Steyer 2.1%
Gabbard 1.4%
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#286

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FiveThirtyEight: Election Update: We Got A Flurry Of New National Polls. Sanders Led Them All.

Meanwhile, Biden is dropping fast.


According to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast, the single most likely outcome of the Democratic presidential primary is that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates (there is a 2 in 5, or 41 percent, chance of this). However, it is almost equally likely that Sen. Bernie Sanders will bag a majority (a 2 in 5 chance, or 37 percent). And a recent avalanche of national polls has been particularly good for Sanders.1

Sanders leads in 10 out of 10 national polls released since Monday — many of them from high-quality pollsters — giving him a firmer handle on the race. He currently sits at 25.3 percent in our national polling average — more than 3 percentage points higher than on Feb. 10 (the day before the New Hampshire primary). Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg are roughly tied for second place in the polls, but they are heading in opposite directions. Bloomberg’s average is up 3.5 points since Feb. 10, while Biden’s is down 5 points.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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February 20, 2020 - Swing State Poll: Trump Up In Wisconsin While Dems Have The Edge In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; In Michigan It's Close

In three critical Rust Belt states that delivered a victory to President Trump in 2016 by narrow margins, President Trump leads in head to head matchups against the top Democratic candidates in Wisconsin, but loses or trails within the margin of error in Pennsylvania matchups, and is locked in close races in Michigan, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University Poll released today. This is the first swing state poll of the 2020 presidential election cycle from the Quinnipiac University Poll that includes separate polls conducted simultaneously in key swing states. The poll was conducted from February 12th - 18th, prior to the February 19th Democratic primary debate. ...

"The issues voters choose as their most important show a big divide. Voters citing the economy as the number one issue are voting overwhelmingly for President Trump. But the exact opposite is true for voters who say health care or climate change are their top issues, who are voting overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates," Snow said.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#288

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Axios
Warren sees bump in national poll following Nevada debate

Sen. Elizabeth Warren surged to 19% and second place in a CBS News/YouGov national poll released Sunday, trailing front-runner Sen. Bernie Sanders (28%) but edging out Joe Biden (17%) and Michael Bloomberg (13%).

Why it matters: The poll notes that only 42% of Democratic primary voters have made up their minds. While Warren underperformed in the first three states, her strong debate performance in Nevada last week may have given her campaign new life.
50% of respondents to Sunday's poll said Warren's performance in recent debates — including Wednesday's, where she ripped into the billionaire Bloomberg for his history of sexist remarks — impressed them the most out of any candidate.
...

By the numbers:
Bernie Sanders: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Joe Biden: 17%
Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
The big picture: 65% of voters nationwide believe President Trump will be re-elected in November, according to the poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders — who just turned in a dominant performance in the Nevada caucuses — fares the best in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, but the margin appears slim no matter who the Democratic nominee is.
Sanders (47%) vs. Trump (44%)
Biden (47%) vs. Trump (45%)
Warren (46%) vs. Trump (45%)
Buttigieg (44%) vs. Trump (44%)
Klobuchar (44%) vs. Trump (45%)
Bloomberg (42%) vs. Trump (45%)
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#289

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The Hill
Sanders has wide leads in two of three battleground states: survey

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has wide leads over the Democratic presidential field in Michigan and Wisconsin, but is facing a tighter race in Pennsylvania, according to a poll released Sunday.

Sanders holds a 16-point lead over his closest competitors in Wisconsin, based on the University of Wisconsin-Madison survey.

Sanders has 30 percent support in the battleground state, pollsters found. The rest of the top-top Democratic candidates are lumped together within 1 percentage point of each other. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg both register 13 percent support in Wisconsin, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg trail closely behind with 12 percent support apiece.

Sen, Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has 9 percent support in Wisconsin.

The poll also found Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren all beat President Trump in general election match-ups in the battleground state. The poll did not include a Bloomberg contest against Trump.

Sanders, meanwhile, has a 9-point lead over his closest competitor in Michigan, at 25 percent support.

Biden is in second in Michigan, at 16 percent, trailed by Warren and Bloomberg at 13 percent each, based on the poll. Buttigieg is behind them at 11 percent, with Klobuchar trailing at 8 percent.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#290

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Politico
Sanders, Bloomberg top contenders in New York, Siena poll finds

ALBANY — New York’s presidential primary has quickly evolved into a two-way race between Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg, a poll released by the Siena College Research Institute on Monday found.

A total of 25 percent of the state’s registered Democrats said they’d vote for Sanders if the primary were held today, compared with 21 percent for the former New York City mayor. Joe Biden came in third with 13 percent; Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar each received between 9 and 11 percent.

The poll results reflect the overall campaign's changed dynamics. Biden and Warren had claimed the top two spots in each of the three surveys Siena had previously conducted. Sanders had received somewhere between 13 and 16 percent support in each of the prior polls.

Bloomberg had not previously registered: The last Siena poll was conducted a week after the press reported that he would enter the race, and only 2 percent of respondents volunteered his name. ...

“Thirty-six weeks out, it does not appear that the Democrats’ winning streak in presidential contests in New York — solid since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984 — is in jeopardy,” Siena spokesperson Steve Greenberg said in a statement. “All six leading Democratic candidates currently lead Trump by double digits.”
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#291

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Newsweek
Bernie Sanders Takes Biggest National Lead Of Campaign After Nevada Win, New Poll Shows

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has taken the biggest national lead of his campaign since winning the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.

A new poll from Morning Consult, which surveyed 2,631 Democratic primary voters, shows Sanders leading his closest competitor, former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg by 13 percent. According to the latest figures, Sanders led the pack with 32 percent. Bloomberg trailed behind in second with 19 percent and former Vice President Joe Biden came third with 18 percent.

Former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts tied for fourth with 11 percent each. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota followed behind in fifth with 4 percent, while billionaire Tom Steyer garnered 3 percent and Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii drew 2 percent.

Morning Consult also broke out the candidates' popularity numbers between three polls, one from before the Las Vegas debate on Wednesday, one taken after Wednesday's debate and a third after Saturday's Nevada caucuses. Sanders was the only candidate to see increases across all three dates—from 28 percent, to 30 to 32.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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Cross-posting

The Hill
Democrats adding six new states to 2020 target list, including Ohio and Texas

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is expanding its “Battleground Build-Up 2020” program to include six additional states, most notably Ohio, Texas and Georgia.

The party said that it hopes to achieve three main objectives with the expansion: further lay the groundwork for the eventual Democratic presidential nominee, support Democratic candidates at every level of government and to make early investments in communities of color around the country.

"The DNC is making historic, early investments to build strong, multiple pathways for our eventual nominee to win in November and support Democrats at every level of the ballot,” DNC Chairman Tom Perez said Tuesday in the party's statement.

The program targets key states with additional investments that will go toward opening additional field offices in the states, doubling the number of organizers and funding additional operations staff. ...

Several of the new states – Georgia, New Hampshire, Texas and Virginia – have Senate races, and at the state level, Democrats in Texas are trying to reclaim the state House to for the first time in nearly two decades. ...

The initial batch of states in the DNC's “Battleground Build-Up 2020” program, rolled out over the weekend, included Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania – all states that Trump was able to narrowly flip red in 2016.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#293

Post by bob »

538 has a forecast ("on average") of how many delegates each candidate will win on Super Tuesday:
538 wrote: Sanders: 587
Biden: 305
Bloomberg: 211
Warren: 132
Buttigieg: 70
Klobuchar: 38
(1,991 delegates are required to win the nomination on the first ballot.)

Assuming these numbers (and this order) are roughly accurate, I expect at least Klobuchar to drop out after Super Tuesday.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#294

Post by Suranis »

I found this old voting ad by Janet Leigh. Good for throwing at your facebook fiends from time to time.

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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#295

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The Hill
Sanders holds 13-point lead in Fox News poll

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has surpassed former Vice President Joe Biden in the latest Fox News national poll, holding a 13-point lead days out from Super Tuesday.

Sanders garners support from 31 percent of Democratic primary voters in the poll released Thursday, an 8-point jump from the same poll conducted in January.

Biden follows in the survey at 18 percent support — an 8-point drop since last month — while former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg comes in third at 16 percent.

Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) rounded out the top tier at 12 percent and 10 percent, respectively — the first Fox News poll to find five candidates polling in double digits.

When focusing on Democratic voters in the 14 states that will hold voting Tuesday, Sanders leads at 30 percent, followed by Bloomberg at 18 percent, Biden at 17 percent, Warren at 11 percent and Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) at 8 percent each.

The percentage of Democratic primary voters in the poll who say they think Biden or Warren can take on President Trump has plummeted since late last year, with Biden falling 21 points from December to 56 percent and Warren declining 22 points to 37 percent.

Bloomberg and Sanders each ticked up on the question of whether they could win in November, with 65 percent now saying they think Sanders could take on Trump compared to 57 percent for Bloomberg. Buttigieg followed at 37 percent.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#296

Post by NotaPerson »

Polling data released yesterday from PA and WI...
battlegrounds.JPG

Dems should stop freaking out about the possibility of Sanders being the nominee. Poll after poll in recent weeks shows that he would do about as well (or better) against Trump than any other candidate.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#297

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CNN: Two political handicappers say the Electoral College map now leans toward Democrats:
In the past five days, two of the most prominent non-partisan political analysts in the country have released new projections that show presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a clear edge over President Donald Trump in the Electoral College map.

"The President is an underdog now in his bid for a second term," wrote Stu Rothenberg, founder of the Rothenberg Political Report, in a column published late last week. "That doesn't mean he can't win. It simply means that he is in a more difficult place than he was before, in part because Democrats have united behind a consensus candidate who has potentially broad appeal."

Added Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report:
Biden starts with a slight lead in the Electoral College math. Right now, 232 electoral votes sit in Lean/Likely or Solid Democrat. On the GOP side, 204 electoral votes are in the Lean/Likely/Solid Republican column. There are six states (and one congressional district) in Toss-Up: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd district. Those add up to 102 Electoral votes.
* * *

The other big change is the flip among college-educated whites -- especially white women with college degrees -- who were with Republicans in 2016 but abandoned the party in droves in the 2018 midterms. Trump won whites with college degrees 48%-45% over Clinton in 2016 and lost white college educated women by 7 points. Two years later, as Democrats were retaking control of the House majority, Democratic candidates won whites with college degrees by a 53%-45% margin and carried white women with college degrees by 20 points.

"The President has not added any groups to his electoral coalition," Rothenberg notes.

Of the six states the Cook Report identify as pure toss-ups heading into November, Walter says that Florida is the one that Trump simply cannot afford to lose. "Under our current ratings, there is only one scenario out of 12 possible for Trump to get 270 electoral votes without winning the Sunshine State," she writes.

* * *

If Trump wins Florida -- and, again, he really has to -- then, according to Walter, the race again moves to the Midwestern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Trump loses two of those three, he can still get to 270 -- with Wisconsin looking the best for him at the moment.
So the impeached president can win Florida and Wisconsin (29+10), which will put him at 243. And then North Carolina is 15 and Arizona is 11; that's 269, which is a tie, which is a win for him.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#298

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https://apnews.com/b236785ad580551a5cf3b711f4fb018d
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Pennsylvania lawmakers voted Wednesday to delay the state’s primary election by five weeks to June 2, potentially past the spike of the state’s spreading coronavirus cases.

The measure passed both chambers of the Republican-controlled state Legislature on Wednesday and Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, said he will sign it.

As a result, Pennsylvania will join more than 10 states in delaying primaries.

It comes just a few months after Wolf and lawmakers approved legislation giving every voter the ability to mail in a ballot.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#299

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MSN News
Poll: Key swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan leaning toward Biden

Joe Biden, newly established as the presumptive Democratic nominee with the exit of Sen. Bernie Sanders from the race, leads President Trump in several crucial battleground states, according to Microsoft News sentiment polling.

These states have shown changes in sentiment towards Biden in the range of 2 to 5 percent over the past month.

Since March 1, sentiment for Biden increased by 3 percent in Florida to 51 percent. In Wisconsin, sentiment increased by 5 percent and by 4 percent in Pennsylvania.

Voter sentiment for Biden has increased in Michigan by 3 percent to 51 percent.

Microsoft News polling also reflects tight races in Ohio, Georgia, and Texas.

See the state-by-state view of voter sentiment here for Election 2020.
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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#300

Post by Slim Cognito »

Addie wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:02 am
MSN News
Poll: Key swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan leaning toward Biden
...
See the state-by-state view of voter sentiment here for Election 2020.
A couple of things: FL, PA and MI have been hard hit by COVID. It's possible WI, as well, but I missed it.

Since there's a very high likelihood we're going to be right back indoors come November, the USPS collapse/absentee vote speculation is sounding more solid by the hour.

A third thing: Georgia yay!!!! Also, see point #2.
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