Polls: 2020 Already

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#26

Post by RoadScholar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:45 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:26 pm
Are there any good, younger-ish candidates in purple or red states who could fill one or both roles. Political stars, of course. All of the suggestions, including mine, involve pols from blue states or old Joe.
Democrats could surely use some of that early Willam Jefferson sort of appeal right now.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#27

Post by Dr. Caligari » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:24 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:26 pm
Are there any good, younger-ish candidates in purple or red states who could fill one or both roles. Political stars, of course. All of the suggestions, including mine, involve pols from blue states or old Joe.

Not mine (as to VPs).
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#28

Post by Addie » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:43 pm

Vox
A new Colorado survey is bad news for a Trump-voting Republican senator

Colorado Republican Cory Gardner isn’t up for reelection until 2020 — but his recent poll numbers are another reason for him and Republicans nationwide to worry.

Gardner, who was elected to represent Colorado in the US Senate in 2014, has a 25 percent approval rating in his home state, according to a survey from the American Politics Research Lab released on Thursday. The survey, taken in November and made public just now, found that Gardner’s approval has dipped significantly from 43 percent in 2016 to 25 percent; it appears the senator has been weighed down by Washington politics. Gardner has largely voted in line with President Donald Trump’s positions and appears to be hindered by the president’s low popularity nationwide. He has, at times, pushed back against the president — specifically when it comes to the Justice Department’s marijuana policies; Colorado has legalized marijuana — but that separation doesn’t appear to be breaking through to voters.

Democrats, unsurprisingly, widely disapprove of Gardner, with just 12 percent saying they think he’s doing a good job. But he also scores poorly among independents (23 percent of whom approve of his work) and Republicans (46 percent approve). ...

According to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker of how members of Congress vote with respect to Trump, Gardner’s votes line up with the president’s positions 93.4 percent of the time. He’s not the “Trumpiest” of senators — Senators John Cornyn (R-TX), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), and Marco Rubio (R-FL), for example, vote more in line with Trump than him. But Gardner votes with Trump about the same amount of the time as Senators Ron Johnson (R-WI), Rob Portman (R-OH), and Ted Cruz (R-TX).

All this said: Colorado is an increasingly left-leaning state, so Gardner’s poll numbers aren’t entirely shocking. Moreover, the American Politics Research Lab’s survey found other Colorado political figures’ approval ratings have dropped as well, including Governor John Hickenlooper (53 percent approval, down from 58 percent) and Senator Michael Bennett (44 percent approval from 53 percent), both Democrats.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#29

Post by kate520 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:48 pm

Whatever happened to the identical twin saviors of the Democratic Party, the Castro Bros?
DEFEND DEMOCRACY

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#30

Post by Addie » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:09 am

The Hill
Poll: Nearly half of Iowans wouldn’t vote for Trump in 2020

Nearly half of Iowa voters said they wouldn't vote for President Trump in the 2020 election, according to a poll of likely voters released Thursday.

The Des Moines Register poll found that 48 percent of voters said they would "definitely" vote for a candidate besides Trump, while 20 percent said that they would consider it. Just 26 percent of likely voters said they would definitely vote for Trump in 2020.

Iowa traditionally holds the first caucuses of the presidential nominating process, and is set to be the first battleground for Democrats looking to run in 2020. ...

Trump won the state of Iowa by 3.5 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016. During the GOP primary, Trump finished second in the caucuses behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), losing by 3.3 percent.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#31

Post by Addie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:03 am

Politico
Poll: Trump trails generic Democrat by 8 points ...

A week after naming Brad Parscale to run his reelection effort, Trump is 8 points behind a generic Democratic candidate, 44 percent to 36 percent, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. Nearly one in five voters, 19 percent, are undecided.

Male voters are evenly split: 42 percent would vote for Trump, and 42 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Among female voters, the Democrat has a 15-point lead, 46 percent to 31 percent.

The results fall predictably along party lines: Democratic voters support the Democrat, 82 percent to 8 percent; Republican voters choose Trump, 79 percent to 7 percent. Among independents, the Democratic candidate leads, 35 percent to 29 percent, with 36 percent undecided.

Eighty-six percent of voters who say they backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 would choose the Democratic candidate in 2020, greater than the 80 percent of Trump voters who say they would vote for him again.

Other indicators also suggest Trump is in perilous shape at this early stage. The president’s approval rating in the new poll is 43 percent, down from 46 percent last week. And Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot is up to 7 points, 44 percent to 37 percent.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#32

Post by Addie » Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:32 pm

CNN
More than half of Americans think Trump will lose in 2020. That's not the end of the world for him.

Washington (CNN)A majority of Americans think President Donald Trump will lose his re-election bid in 2020, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, similar numbers to those facing former President Barack Obama at this point in his first term ahead of his re-election victory.

Fifty-four percent of Americans say they expect Trump to lose his campaign for re-election, the same number who said Obama would lose the 2012 election at this point in his first term. Only 40% of Americans think Trump will win in 2020, similar to the 44% who said the same for Obama.

Republicans overwhelmingly say they expect Trump to win re-election to the White House in 2020 (79% feel that way), while Democrats nearly unanimously say they expect him to lose (87% say so). A majority of independents also expect him to lose. Republicans now are more optimistic about Trump's re-election prospects than Democrats were about Obama (just 69% of Democrats said they expected Obama to win at this point in 2010).

Former President Bill Clinton faced even worse expectations in 1995, when only a quarter of Americans expected him to win his second term following deep losses for his party in the 1994 midterm elections. Trump filed re-election paperwork with federal election officials on Inauguration Day in 2017. He formally announced his re-election bid in February.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#33

Post by RTH10260 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:50 pm

Addie wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:32 pm
CNN
More than half of Americans think Trump will lose in 2020. That's not the end of the world for him.
:snippity:
From the gossip I understand that Teh Donald intended to lose the elections and run his enterprise with a better known name recognition. After leaving office he will find the business world ended for him. The enterprise will be lacking of clients wanting his branding. His hotels, especially in Washington DC, will lose their international business visitors that payed in expectation of getting near to and influencing dotus or family members. His aspiration of building some trumped up tower in Moscow will never happen, Putin will have disavoued the failure-in-chief.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#34

Post by Addie » Wed May 23, 2018 9:58 am

The Hill
Poll: 36 percent back Trump reelection bid

Just 36 percent of voters say they would vote to re-elect President Trump, according to a new Politico-Morning Consult poll.

Forty-four percent of respondents said they would vote for a generic Democrat in 2020, while one-fifth are still undecided.

Trump's support is roughly in line with other recent polls, and is 10 points lower than former President Barack Obama’s at the same point in his presidency.

Support for Trump’s reelection fell largely along party lines, with 79 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for Trump and 86 percent of Democrats supporting a Democrat.

According to the poll, a GOP candidate other than Trump would have an even lower chance of reelection, with 27 percent saying they would support a generic Republican compared to 40 percent supporting a Democrat.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#35

Post by Danraft » Fri May 25, 2018 12:42 am

Don't know where to ask this, but having a discussion about the "Bernie was robbed" and Newsweek Greg Price hqd a headline saying that, but the body relly didnt have any facts besides the fact that she had control of the DNC budget.
I know the email dump didn't show anything like that, and that there were Trolls pushing that story, but was there any real facts?
we're any of these articles retracted?
The Mercury Project

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#36

Post by RVInit » Fri May 25, 2018 6:40 am

Danraft wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 12:42 am
Don't know where to ask this, but having a discussion about the "Bernie was robbed" and Newsweek Greg Price hqd a headline saying that, but the body relly didnt have any facts besides the fact that she had control of the DNC budget.
I know the email dump didn't show anything like that, and that there were Trolls pushing that story, but was there any real facts?
we're any of these articles retracted?
This may help

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... 16110058ce
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#37

Post by Addie » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:13 pm

The Hill
Biden tops Trump by 7 points in hypothetical 2020 matchup: poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden tops President Trump by 7 points in a hypothetical 2020 matchup, according to a new Politico–Morning Consult poll.

Forty-four percent of registered voters told pollsters they would support Biden in the next presidential election, compared to 37 percent of voters who said they would vote to reelect Trump.

The poll also found that a generic candidate would do better against Trump than Biden among registered Democrats: 89 percent said they would vote for a generic candidate from their own party, compared to 80 percent who said they would vote for Biden.

Seventy-eight percent of Republicans said they would vote Trump back into office.

Biden ran for president in 1998 and 2008, but dropped out quickly both times. The former Delaware senator has been floated as a 2020 contender, and a poll in June found that he would attract the highest support among Democratic voters of any candidate in the survey.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#38

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:27 pm

Addie wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:13 pm
The Hill
Biden tops Trump by 7 points in hypothetical 2020 matchup: poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden tops President Trump by 7 points in a hypothetical 2020 matchup, according to a new Politico–Morning Consult poll.

Forty-four percent of registered voters told pollsters they would support Biden in the next presidential election, compared to 37 percent of voters who said they would vote to reelect Trump.

The poll also found that a generic candidate would do better against Trump than Biden among registered Democrats: 89 percent said they would vote for a generic candidate from their own party, compared to 80 percent who said they would vote for Biden.

Seventy-eight percent of Republicans said they would vote Trump back into office.

Biden ran for president in 1998 and 2008, but dropped out quickly both times. The former Delaware senator has been floated as a 2020 contender, and a poll in June found that he would attract the highest support among Democratic voters of any candidate in the survey.
I know that his son had just died but I think it was a mistake that Biden didn't run in 2016. He most likely would have won.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#39

Post by Lani » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:19 pm

Biden would have been trashed as much as Clinton by the right, the left, and the Russians. He'd be accused of hiding brain injury/secret medical condition. A sellout to and puppet for corporations. Rumors about harassing women. Wife's death a contract murder. Anita Hill. Provides cover for the Democratic pedo rings. And on and on.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#40

Post by Addie » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:19 pm

Business Insider: Poll: Trump would lose to every top Democrat woman including Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, or Elizabeth Warren

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#41

Post by realist » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:45 pm

Addie wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:19 pm
Business Insider: Poll: Trump would lose to every top Democrat woman including Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, or Elizabeth Warren
I doubt that.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#42

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:17 pm

The Hill
Nearly six in ten want someone other than Trump elected president in 2020: poll

Roughly 60 percent of Americans said in a new poll that they don't want to see President Trump re-elected in 2020.

The Monmouth University Poll found that 36 percent of Americans support Trump's second term, while 59 percent indicated they want to see someone new in the White House after the next presidential election.

Sixteen percent of Republicans said they would rather have a new president, according to the poll, compared to 92 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of independents said the same.

Trump's approval rating has consistently hovered in the low 40 percent range in Monmouth's polling. This month's survey found 43 percent of respondents approve of the president, while 49 percent disapprove. Those figures are largely unchanged from an August poll.

Wednesday's poll surveyed 802 people from Nov. 9-12 -- a few days after the midterms -- and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#43

Post by Addie » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:20 am

Salon
Fox News poll: Only 38 percent of Americans would vote to re-elect Donald Trump

While 38 percent of Americans said they will vote for Trump come 2020, 55 percent plan to vote for someone else


With the 2018 midterm polls long behind us, pollsters are starting to look at the 2020 presidential election. And according to a new poll from Fox News, good news awaits Democrats dissatisfied with Donald Trump's presidency.

The survey found that when Americans were asked about Trump's chances for re-election in 2020, only 39 percent of respondents say they believe he would win while more than half, 52 percent, believe he would not. Of course, polls aren't always accurate and led to the ghastly misjudged 2016 presidential election. And when compared to Barack Obama's re-election numbers in December 2010, an even worse 29 percent, Trump's appearance of popularity remains remarkably steady. But the number for Americans who say they would vote for Trump if the election were today are troublingly low for Trump.

Only 38 percent of Americans claim they would vote for Trump for a second term — while 55 percent say they plan to vote for his unknown rival. And even that is an improvement for the president. In April of 2017, 36 percent of Americans stated they would vote to re-elect Trump, while 56 percent already planned to oppose him.

Fox News also polled Americans on which potential Democratic candidate they found "excellent" or "good" for 2020. The poll found that 70 percent of Democrats rated former Vice President Joe Biden that way, while 63 percent of respondents said the same of former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. Then Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, at 38 percent, Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas, with 36 percent, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey (34 percent) and California Sen. Kamala Harris, at a surprisingly low 33 percent, round out the frontrunners list. While these numbers align with the popular picks by Democrats to challenge Trump come 2020, none of the six have made their candidacy known for the presidential race. Instead, less name recognizable politicians like Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) and West Virginia Democrat Richard Ojeda are the only people to have officially announced a run. The poll from Fox News found that only three in ten voters recognized either of their names.

As opposed to the "excellent" and "good" candidates for a 2020 battle against Trump, the poll found some "popular" picks to be not as popular as originally presented. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and former Starbucks CEO Howard Shultz all received negative remarks.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#44

Post by Addie » Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:58 am

CNBC
Wealthy Republicans lose faith in Trump, as nearly 40% say they wouldn't vote to re-elect him: CNBC survey

The 2020 race for the White House is just barely under way, but the latest CNBC Millionaire Survey shows some troubling signs for the incumbent President Donald Trump, including an energized base of wealthy Democrats and unsteady support from wealthy Republicans.

Just 34 percent of America's millionaires say they would vote to re-elect President Trump if the election were held today. Among Republicans, Trump has lost more than one-third of wealthy voters, with only 62 percent of Republican millionaires saying they would vote for the president if the election were held today. Thirty-six percent of the overall vote was scattered among 10 different possible Democratic nominees, while 22 percent went to other Republicans.

The semiannual CNBC Millionaire Survey, conducted Nov. 7 through Nov. 19 by Spectrem Group, is representative of the affluent population in the United States. The survey analyzes the investment attitudes and behaviors of 750 investors with $1 million or more of investable assets. Respondents are required to be the financial decision-maker, or share jointly in financial decision-making within the household. ...

The issues that matter most to millionaire voters in the next election vary greatly by party. High on the list: 18 percent of Republican millionaires say taxes and government spending is what they'll consider most when they think about choosing a president in 2020. That is followed by immigration reform (17 percent) and the economy (16 percent).

For 54 percent of Democrat millionaires and 28 percent of Independents, "voting President Trump out of office" is their number one issue. For now, who they want to replace him with is a question with no clear answer.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#45

Post by neonzx » Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:32 pm

Changes of Congress ‏@CongressChanges

Renamed: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) campaign account
"elizabethforma"=>"ewarren"
https://twitter.com/ewarren
:think:
To which Trump replied, Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#46

Post by Addie » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:01 pm

Fogs, can this thread please be moved to 2020 Presidential now? ty

WaPo - Philip Bump
Analysis | Only three-quarters of Trump supporters definitely plan to vote for him in 2020

At the top, the new NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll isn’t great news for President Trump’s reelection prospects.

The pollsters asked Americans if they planned to vote for Trump’s reelection in 2020, and only 30 percent of respondents said they definitely planned to. More worrisome for the president: 57 percent said they definitely wouldn’t back his candidacy.

Broken out by party, the results were about what you’d expect: Nearly all Democrats said they would vote against him, and the majority of Republicans said they would back him. But those numbers show more weakness for Trump than you might at first assume.

Adding:
Newsweek: Donald Trump’s Low Approval Rating Gives Him ‘Long Odds’ of Winning Second Term: Poll

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#47

Post by Addie » Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:07 pm

Public Policy Polling
Trump Polling At Only 41-42% Against Possible Democratic Foes

PPP’s newest national poll finds that at the midway point of Donald Trump’s term as President, he’s a clear underdog for reelection.

Trump gets just 41 or 42% in head to head match ups against 7 likely Democratic candidates for President. He trails Joe Biden 53-41, Bernie Sanders 51-41, Kamala Harris 48-41, Beto O’Rourke 47-41, Elizabeth Warren 48-42, and Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand each 47-42.

Trump’s low 40s support for reelection essentially tracks with his approval numbers. Only 40% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 57% who disapprove.

The shutdown situation is not doing anything to help Trump’s cause. Only 35% of voters agree with Trump that the government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall to 60% who disagree. 57% think Congress should vote today to reopen the government without funding the wall, to 38% who are opposed. 55% of voters pin the blame for the shutdown on Trump and the Republicans in Congress to 43% who blame the Democrats in Congress. And on a related note about who’s coming out ahead in the shutdown, voters say they’d prefer to have either Chuck Schumer (46-41) or Nancy Pelosi (47-44) over Trump as President.

As the Russia investigation heats up, 45% of voters think Trump has committed crimes since he began running for President to 41% who don’t think he has. And if the Mueller investigation does find that Trump committed a crime 61% think he should be indicted and prosecuted in the courts, to just 30% who disagree. Already there is 46% support for impeachment, to 44% of voters who are opposed.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#48

Post by Foggy » Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:41 pm

If a sentence starts with a number, spell out the number. :fingerwag:

I can be talked out of that one. :think:

But it is in the AP Stylebook.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#49

Post by Janny in Texas » Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:57 pm

Foggy wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:41 pm
If a sentence starts with a number, spell out the number. :fingerwag:

I can be talked out of that one. :think:

But it is in the AP Stylebook.
Yes!

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#50

Post by Foggy » Tue Jan 22, 2019 2:03 pm

Off Topic
But ...

The reason I think it's OK to end a sentence with a preposition is that it is clearly OK to end a CLAUSE with a preposition, and a clause is often just a short sentence.

And it is clearly OK to begin a clause with a number that isn't spelled out.
As the Russia investigation heats up, 45% of voters think Trump has committed crimes since he began running for President to 41% who don’t think he has.
So I'm not sure this is a good rule. Maybe PPP is leading the way into a better future. :think:

Or maybe the rule doesn't apply to percents?

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