Trump's Trade Follicy

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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#976

Post by Addie » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:16 pm

Politico
Mexico imposes retaliatory tariffs on dozens of U.S. goods

Mexico on Thursday began imposing its second stage of retaliatory tariffs on dozens of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump’s duties on Mexican steel and aluminum exports to the United States.

The tariffs complete Mexico’s two-part retaliation on almost $3 billion worth of U.S. products. The Mexican government, which first announced its retaliation list last month, started the action on June 5 by eliminating preferential tariffs established under NAFTA on a number of products, including pork, potatoes and whiskey. The Mexican government confirmed on Thursday that the increased tariffs are going into effect.

Most of Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs will be imposed on U.S. agricultural exports, such as apples, cranberries and various cheeses. Mexico is also targeting a number of American steel products. The majority of products on the list will face tariffs between 15 and 25 percent.

Mexico’s retaliation comes after the Trump administration decided in May to end its exemptions to the tariffs on steel and aluminum for U.S. allies, such as Canada and the European Union. Canada and the EU have also pursued retaliatory tariffs on a total of almost $16 billion worth of U.S. products, such as peanut butter and kitchenware.

Mexico has said the duties will remain in place as long as the Trump administration maintains its tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#977

Post by Addie » Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:28 pm

Bloomberg
U.S. Soybean Prices Crumble as Trade War Sparks Brazil Rally

Soybean prices in the U.S. and Brazil, the nations that account for roughly 80 percent of global exports, have taken drastically different paths thanks to Donald Trump’s trade war.

In the U.S., average cash prices fell to about $7.79 a bushel this week, the lowest in almost a decade, according to an index compiled by the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. China’s tariffs on American goods including farm products have now taken effect after the U.S. implemented a raft of duties earlier in the day Friday and President Trump threatened more action.

Meanwhile in Brazil, exporters have been handed high times. Soybeans to be loaded in August at the nation’s Paranagua port fetched $2.21 a bushel more than Chicago futures as of Friday, the widest gap since data starts in 2014. The premium has more than tripled since the end of May, according to data from Commodity 3.

"Premiums reflect the rising possibility of China being more dependent on Brazil’s soybeans," Luis Fernando Roque, an analyst at consultancy firm Safras & Mercado, said in a telephone interview from Porto Alegre.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#978

Post by Gregg » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:53 pm

Wait until China puts a tariff on American Coal. The coal market right now is heavily dependent on exports, and is already going to take a hit because its more heavily weighted towards the kind of coal used in steel making as opposed to energy generation. The Steel Tariffs are going to start hurting that soon, and if China starts targeting coal, the coal industry is not just long term screwed, but getting screwed right now.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#979

Post by Notorial Dissent » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:07 pm

Soybeans just took a serious hit, corn, milo, and wheat will probably be next, if they aren't there already.. I don't know what the current ratio of cost per bushel to profit per bushel is currently but I suspect it is rapidly reaching the 0$ point. China has huge coal reserves and huge mining interests. but most of it is pretty nasty stuff burn wise, one of the reasons living in Beijing is like a multipack a day habit.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#980

Post by pipistrelle » Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:03 pm

When is Congress going to step up? Surely fiscal conservatives don't want to trash the economy like this?



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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#981

Post by Gregg » Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:13 pm

Notorial Dissent wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:07 pm
Soybeans just took a serious hit, corn, milo, and wheat will probably be next, if they aren't there already.. I don't know what the current ratio of cost per bushel to profit per bushel is currently but I suspect it is rapidly reaching the 0$ point. China has huge coal reserves and huge mining interests. but most of it is pretty nasty stuff burn wise, one of the reasons living in Beijing is like a multipack a day habit.

The airport in Bejing is a permanent IFR ( Instrument Flight Rules) approach, because of the pollution.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#982

Post by kate520 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:38 pm

Who does that orange thing think we’re going to sell our goods to? Each other? Nobody’s going to have any money to do that, shortly.

NAFTA was sold to us as letting us farm out all the nasty manufacturing so we could clean our water and air, we’ll be a service economy, financial services, things like that there. So we leapt. It wasn’t an easy landing, but it was humming along until recently, our air and water are cleaner. NAFTA, which I wasn’t really sure about, seems to perform as promised.

Pruitt dismantled most of the regulatory structure that allowed that cleaning to happen, his successor will finish the air and water quality off. The return of manufacturing, coal? In no time at all, we’ll be right back in the 70s again.

The orange thing’s been making noises about how our wages are too high, too, setting the stage for industry to bring them down as they gear up. But everything will still cost the same. Who’s going to buy our shit?


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#983

Post by pipistrelle » Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:38 pm

Gregg wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:13 pm
Notorial Dissent wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:07 pm
Soybeans just took a serious hit, corn, milo, and wheat will probably be next, if they aren't there already.. I don't know what the current ratio of cost per bushel to profit per bushel is currently but I suspect it is rapidly reaching the 0$ point. China has huge coal reserves and huge mining interests. but most of it is pretty nasty stuff burn wise, one of the reasons living in Beijing is like a multipack a day habit.
The airport in Bejing is a permanent IFR ( Instrument Flight Rules) approach, because of the pollution.
Exactly what the current EPA wants for us too.



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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#984

Post by woodworker » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:22 pm

Gregg wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:53 pm
Wait until China puts a tariff on American Coal. The coal market right now is heavily dependent on exports, and is already going to take a hit because its more heavily weighted towards the kind of coal used in steel making as opposed to energy generation. The Steel Tariffs are going to start hurting that soon, and if China starts targeting coal, the coal industry is not just long term screwed, but getting screwed right now.
I don't think China will impose a tariff on coal -- they will just stop buying it from the US (and they will accelerate their solar programs)


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#985

Post by woodworker » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:33 pm

Notorial Dissent wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:07 pm
Soybeans just took a serious hit, corn, milo, and wheat will probably be next, if they aren't there already.. I don't know what the current ratio of cost per bushel to profit per bushel is currently but I suspect it is rapidly reaching the 0$ point. China has huge coal reserves and huge mining interests. but most of it is pretty nasty stuff burn wise, one of the reasons living in Beijing is like a multipack a day habit.
Yabbut, it seems that the farmers still believe in Trump -- he won't let them down.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#986

Post by woodworker » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:39 pm

kate520 wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:38 pm
Who does that orange thing think we’re going to sell our goods to? Each other? Nobody’s going to have any money to do that, shortly.

NAFTA was sold to us as letting us farm out all the nasty manufacturing so we could clean our water and air, we’ll be a service economy, financial services, things like that there. So we leapt. It wasn’t an easy landing, but it was humming along until recently, our air and water are cleaner. NAFTA, which I wasn’t really sure about, seems to perform as promised.

Pruitt dismantled most of the regulatory structure that allowed that cleaning to happen, his successor will finish the air and water quality off. The return of manufacturing, coal? In no time at all, we’ll be right back in the 70s again.

The orange thing’s been making noises about how our wages are too high, too, setting the stage for industry to bring them down as they gear up. But everything will still cost the same. Who’s going to buy our shit?
What Trump seems to have a huge problem here is comprehending that the marketplace doesn't give a fuck what he wants. The market is going to do what it wants. And foreign countries, e.g., Brazil, are not going to restrict their soybean exports just to bail him out on this, they don't give a shit about him and are going to do everything they can to take market share from the US farmers.

I recall reading somewhere that the Brazil soybeans have a higher protein content than the US does -- if China decides that the higher protein content makes Brazilian soybeans better for industrial feed purposes, it seems to me that that would help Brazil strengthen their takeover of Chinese market share. Has anyone else read/heard about this or is it just me on drugs?


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#987

Post by Dan1100 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:49 pm

University of Iowa has breakeven point for soybeans at about $9.50 a bushel.

https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ ... /a1-20.pdf

Source page https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ ... a1-20.html

Today's price $8.74.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#988

Post by Chilidog » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:13 am

At this point, what do the farmers do?

Leave the crop to rot in the fields? Plow it under? Harvest it and sell at a loss?



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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#989

Post by much ado » Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:54 am

Chilidog wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:13 am
At this point, what do the farmers do?

Leave the crop to rot in the fields? Plow it under? Harvest it and sell at a loss?
If they don't sell it, even if at a loss, their loss will be even greater. They have no choice, do they? Will the government buy it to help them out?



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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#990

Post by Notorial Dissent » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:45 am

Dan1100 wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:49 pm
University of Iowa has breakeven point for soybeans at about $9.50 a bushel.

https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ ... /a1-20.pdf

Source page https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ ... a1-20.html

Today's price $8.74.

That is what I was expecting and afraid of. I wouldn't be surprised if there are similar figures for corn, wheat, and milo, or at least they are rapidly reaching that point.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#991

Post by Gregg » Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:25 am

The major buyer of corn has always been Meico, so that's not a prob...umm.

Corn down 10% so far this year. Seems you can't ship corn over walls.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#992

Post by Chilidog » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:42 am

No problem with corn, they can just sell it to the ethanol plants....

Oh, wait.



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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#993

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:36 am

Chilidog wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:42 am
No problem with corn, they can just sell it to the ethanol plants....

Oh, wait.
Why won’t that work? I must be missing something.

I admit that I think ethanol is a poor solution for a hard problem, but won’t the plants benefit from a larger supply?


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#994

Post by ZekeB » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:22 pm

TollandRCR wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:36 am
Chilidog wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:42 am
No problem with corn, they can just sell it to the ethanol plants....

Oh, wait.
Why won’t that work? I must be missing something.

I admit that I think ethanol is a poor solution for a hard problem, but won’t the plants benefit from a larger supply?
They're pushing E15 like crazy here as it is. My car warranty goes kaput if I use it. I won't even use E10 in my small engines. There are four ethanol plants within a twenty mile radius of me and they have more corn than they need.

Philosophically I'm opposed to using and depending on a foodstuff for fuel. Just one drought year and you get to take your pick: Food or fuel? Which to you want? Both are in short supply.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#995

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:37 pm

Depending of foodstuffs for fuel was always a bad idea, even if field corn grown as animal feed is not what you want on your summer grill. I think that the ethanol rush should have waited on the ability to process cornstalks or other non-edible matter. In other words, cellulosic ethanol should have been the major goal. That did not fit the politics of the time.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#996

Post by Chilidog » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:45 pm

TollandRCR wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:36 am
Chilidog wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:42 am
No problem with corn, they can just sell it to the ethanol plants....

Oh, wait.
Why won’t that work? I must be missing something.

I admit that I think ethanol is a poor solution for a hard problem, but won’t the plants benefit from a larger supply?
Scott Pruitt pushed to reduce ethanol use.



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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#997

Post by Danraft » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:53 pm

Iowa early primaries are the main reason ethanol is still a thing.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#998

Post by ZekeB » Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:56 pm

Danraft wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:53 pm
Iowa early primaries are the main reason ethanol is still a thing.
It's not a primary, it's a caucus. The more active citizens turn out for caucuses, as opposed to secret balloting in a voting booth. There are pros and cons to caucuses, but the silent majority tends to sit them out.


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#999

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:21 pm

Like have been outdlside the ethanol wide debate for sevetal years. My current ride is BlueTec diesel. Ask understand it, the system deals with halogens emissions by the timed emission of urea. Peeing in my hake seems to work. Any ideas on this?


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Re: Trump's Trade Follicy

#1000

Post by Gregg » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:36 pm

TollandRCR wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:37 pm
Depending of foodstuffs for fuel was always a bad idea, even if field corn grown as animal feed is not what you want on your summer grill. I think that the ethanol rush should have waited on the ability to process cornstalks or other non-edible matter. In other words, cellulosic ethanol should have been the major goal. That did not fit the politics of the time.

The vast majority of corn is grown as feed for livestock and other "not corn on the cob or canned niblets" use. Quite a bit is for industrial use like plastics and stuff. The orginal idea of Ethanol as a motor fuel was a combination of ecological concerns and as a way to prop up the price and use more corn to please the farm lobby. It was a rare convergence of liberals and conservatives both getting to say they won. Too bad that both of them won what is bad idea from the git-go, but that's another kettle of fish.


By the way, if you drive a Ford, the seats and other interior components of your car are made largely from soybeans.


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