2018 Senate election prediction poll!

After Tuesday's election, who will control the Senate?

Poll ended at Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:08 pm

Democrats will control 51+ seats [2+ Democratic pickups]
16
33%
50-50 split [1 Democratic pickup]
16
33%
Republicans will maintain 51 seats [No change]
7
14%
Republicans will control 52 or 53 seats [1-2 Republican pickups]
8
16%
Republicans will control 54+ seats [3+ Republican pickups]
2
4%
 
Total votes: 49

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bob
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2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#1

Post by bob » Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:08 pm

(To deter the sneaky cheaters, no re-voting.)
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#2

Post by Sluffy1 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:45 pm

It'll be a November surprise... 51 us - 49 them

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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#3

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:58 pm

Go for the GOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLDDDDDDD! Dems win the Senate!
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#4

Post by HilltownGrrl » Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:23 pm

I've kept this tab open since you posted this poll because I can't decide. I desperately want the Dems to take both houses but between all my stupid injuries & all the general horrors of the last three years, I've been pounded rather flat emotionally & can't bring myself to vote optimistically for us to gain any seats. It's like I'll jinx it or that it will get my hopes up & I'll just get smashed flat again.

Yeah, I know I've managed to turn this into some existential issue when it's just a poll but that's how life has felt for most of the last three years & it finally boiled over, you lucky, lucky people!
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#5

Post by Foggy » Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:16 pm

Yanno, I understand that perfectly.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#6

Post by MN-Skeptic » Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:26 pm

You know, I’m tempted to treat this midterm election as a Schrödinger's Election. I.e., I won’t peek until Wednesday morning to see the results. As long as I haven’t seen the results, I can still believe that the Democrats have exceeded expectations.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#7

Post by Orlylicious » Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:27 pm

It's a big lift but... Remember, all these Senate Democrats have won before. Incumbency is powerful, lots of research on that. Governor's races where the GOP is getting crushed will add votes, Ballot initiatives are turning voters out, and figure if Democrats are +40 in the House, just the math of how many votes there will be makes it unlikely there will be a split result.

Re jinxing, I think people want to vote with winners and we should be confident, we have great candidates. Nancy Pelosi has said we'll win before every election and every year the GOP media treats it like the first time. Why not say we're gonna win? What's the alternative? Vote for us so we don't lose? :lol: Nothing, nothing, will ever be like the 2016 loss. I have my Kerry/Edwards and other buttons, totally accept we lose some. That one was so blindsiding and horrible but not going to have that reaction again. At least I know win or lose we had a fairer fight.

I think we take the House and Senate like 2006 if we work like hell until the polls close. Donald's closing on the worst possible message, and everybody but Donald knows it. Maybe he thinks Indiana voters want that but Hoosiers are smarter. Suburbs are mostly gone. Trade war is hurting rurals. Anything can happen but we won the popular vote in 2016 and there's no Electoral College to save the GOP this time.

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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#8

Post by Reality Check » Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:56 am

I sense a late shift in the Democratic direction. I see that some polls are showing that Senate races in Texas, Mississippi, Arizona and Tennessee are dead heats now. I have been following elections since 1960 so I have a pretty good instinct about these things. In 2016 I had sense of dread about the election from the day Comey screwed up. I think Hillary was going to win a comfortable win in the Elector College before Comey pooped on the country.

This cycle the right wing hate fueled bombing attempts, Jewish massacre and the murder of James Khashoggi by Trump's bosom buds the Saudis hit exactly when a lot of voters would have been making up their minds. These events have left some indelible images on the psyche of the populace.

I might be wrong of course and will admit it if I am but I am warming to the idea both chambers could shift.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#9

Post by much ado » Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:36 pm

Some years ago I was annoyed by the Fox News graphic that showed the US in red. So I made an animated GIF where the red color gradually changes to blue. I wasn't really satisfied with how it turned out, because the limited size of the GIF pallet cannot contain all the necessary shades. Anyway, this is how it turned out.

Hoping for a Blue Wave:

Image

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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#10

Post by Gregg » Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:44 pm

I think, or hope, the Senate surprises everyone and a lot of people go down who we don't expect to.

I absolutely refuse to believe that Texas has enough stupid and mean people to re-elect Ted Cruz.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#11

Post by Patagoniagirl » Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:35 pm

I just met and spoke with Senator Rob Portman (and Jon Husted). I said " Considering that people in this community, as in many other communities in the state and around the country, work hard and care for their own elderly and disabled family members, would you break ranks with Mitch McConnell who recently said that to get the Federal Budget under control, that Congress needs to reform entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security?" And I said, "Before you answer I want you to admit that Social Security and Medicare ARE NOT simply entitlements, but earned benefits".

Husted folded and said he promised that he would not support any effort to mess with SS or Medicare, and said yes, they were both earned benefits. I told him I would hold him to that.

Portman feigned ignorance and said he had not heard McConnell say that....ummmm, all over the Google, I told him. He claimed that is not true and made.no committment as to keeping his hands off "entitlements" in an effort to get the Federal Budget under control. I also asked him how making cuts to these programs was justified in light of the fact that the recent tax cuts did not benefit anyone but big corporate donors. Crickets. Boy Scout wanting to get picture with Senator. Moving along. Blah, blah, blah.

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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#12

Post by Sunrise » Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:08 pm

much ado wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:36 pm
Some years ago I was annoyed by the Fox News graphic that showed the US in red. So I made an animated GIF where the red color gradually changes to blue. I wasn't really satisfied with how it turned out, because the limited size of the GIF pallet cannot contain all the necessary shades. Anyway, this is how it turned out.

Hoping for a Blue Wave:

Image
Love this! :thumbs:
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#13

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:52 pm

Much ado- Great Blue Wave!!!!!!!
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#14

Post by much ado » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:11 pm

Actually, it doesn't look too bad when it's small. I guess I'll use it as an avatar for a while.

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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#15

Post by Dan1100 » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:25 pm

After much hesitation, I chose no change. That will be a major victory considering the numbers.

But, what goes around come around:
There are 11 Democratic seats, 20 Republican seats, and two seats currently waiting to be filled via special election on November 6, 2018, up for election in 2020.


Most of the Democrats are in sure thing Eastern states.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_S ... ions,_2020 (also has a nice clickable map that showing each 2020 race).

With any momentum that will mean a filibuster proof majority for the incoming Democratic President. :fiesta: :bunny: :happyfamily:
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#16

Post by Patagoniagirl » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:40 pm

Patagoniagirl wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:35 pm
I just met and spoke with Senator Rob Portman (and Jon Husted). I said " Considering that people in this community, as in many other communities in the state and around the country, work hard and care for their own elderly and disabled family members, would you break ranks with Mitch McConnell who recently said that to get the Federal Budget under control, that Congress needs to reform entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security?" And I said, "Before you answer I want you to admit that Social Security and Medicare ARE NOT simply entitlements, but earned benefits".

Husted folded and said he promised that he would not support any effort to mess with SS or Medicare, and said yes, they were both earned benefits. I told him I would hold him to that.

Portman feigned ignorance and said he had not heard McConnell say that....ummmm, all over the Google, I told him. He claimed that is not true and made.no committment as to keeping his hands off "entitlements" in an effort to get the Federal Budget under control. I also asked him how making cuts to these programs was justified in light of the fact that the recent tax cuts did not benefit anyone but big corporate donors. Crickets. Boy Scout wanting to get picture with Senator. Moving along. Blah, blah, blah.
I have been viciously attacked on local FB pages for posting this same thing. I lied. I am fake. I wasn't there, I am a subversive plant, the list of idiocy goes on.

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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#17

Post by Lani » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:58 pm

Sounds like some of us.

Democrats traumatized by 2016 are having pre-midterms nightmares
Despite forecasts of a Democratic House takeover, liberals grappling with 'PTSD' are braced for another surprise election disaster.
https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018 ... rms-960458
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#18

Post by MN-Skeptic » Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:18 pm

:yeah:
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#19

Post by bob » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:58 am

There are 11 Democratic seats, 20 Republican seats, and two seats currently waiting to be filled via special election on November 6, 2018, up for election in 2020.


Most of the Democrats are in sure thing Eastern states.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_S ... ions,_2020 (also has a nice clickable map that showing each 2020 race).
538 peeked at 2020: Most races are simply not competitive. The best chances for Democratic pickups in 2020 are: Arizona (Jon Kyl, or his successor); Iowa (Joni Ernst); North Carolina (Thom Tillis); Colorado (Cory Gardner); and Maine (Susan Collins).*



* If the Democrats pick up one seat in 2018, resulting in a 50-50 split, the $64B question will be how many perqs and how much pork do they need to throw at Collins to convince her caucus with them.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#20

Post by Gregg » Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:23 am

bob wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:58 am
There are 11 Democratic seats, 20 Republican seats, and two seats currently waiting to be filled via special election on November 6, 2018, up for election in 2020.


Most of the Democrats are in sure thing Eastern states.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_S ... ions,_2020 (also has a nice clickable map that showing each 2020 race).
538 peeked at 2020: Most races are simply not competitive. The best chances for Democratic pickups in 2020 are: Arizona (Jon Kyl, or his successor); Iowa (Joni Ernst); North Carolina (Thom Tillis); Colorado (Cory Gardner); and Maine (Susan Collins).*



* If the Democrats pick up one seat in 2018, resulting in a 50-50 split, the $64B question will be how many perqs and how much pork do they need to throw at Collins to convince her caucus with them.
Phuck her, VIce President Joseph P Kennedy III will cast the tie breaking vote.

:thumbs:
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#21

Post by Slim Cognito » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:33 am

Lani wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:58 pm
Sounds like some of us.

Democrats traumatized by 2016 are having pre-midterms nightmares
Despite forecasts of a Democratic House takeover, liberals grappling with 'PTSD' are braced for another surprise election disaster.
https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018 ... rms-960458
Starting a few months ago, I'd find myself jumping awake, then lying there unable to sleep, sweating profusely, dry mouth, heart pounding, wondering if I'd had a nightmare I couldn't remember. Talking to my son, an Iraq combat veteran/medic, he explained I'm suffering from PTSD. I felt like such a weenie. I understood why he had it, but me?????

(soon afterwards I got my medical MJ card. It has saved my sanity.)
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#22

Post by fierceredpanda » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:01 am

Looking at the map, my guess is that the best feasible scenario for Democrats is a 50-50 tie, which means Republicans effectively stay in control. Barring a miracle, I just don't see how Heitkamp can pull it out in North Dakota. I think Manchin and Donnelly are solid holds, and McCaskill, Tester, and Nelson are looking much better than I thought they would. Menendez will win in NJ, although I wish he'd just go away already. Baldwin here in Wisconsin has it sewn up, which I would never have believed possible a year ago. There's not a single poll showing her lead less than 9 points. I think Sinema wins in Arizona and Cruz wins Texas. Texas is still Texas, in spite of the tanker trucks of ink that have been spilled writing the same lazy "Is this the year Texas turns blue?" articles that I've been seeing since 2008.

That leaves Nevada and Tennessee as the two I can't figure. If Dems win both, the Senate is 51-49. My hunch is that we'll see a split decision. So, say Rosen wins Nevada and Blackburn wins Tennessee, because Tennessee is Trump Country much more than Nevada.

So that leaves the D's with 1 loss and 2 pickups. 50-50.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#23

Post by Suranis » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:38 am

I chose +1 seat. I am cautiously optimistic, and even that would be a major victory.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#24

Post by Reality Check » Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:39 am

Suranis wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:38 am
I chose +1 seat. I am cautiously optimistic, and even that would be a major victory.
Yes, it would have been considered nearly impossible a year or two ago based on the number of seats the Democrats have to defend.
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Re: 2018 Senate election prediction poll!

#25

Post by bob » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:12 pm

A caveat: The special election in Mississippi tomorrow likely will not have an outright winner, so the final results may not be known until December.

(And :smoking: if we wake up on Wednesday with 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and one run-off.)
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