California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

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California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#1

Post by Addie » Mon May 28, 2018 8:51 am

Tampa Bay Times
Republicans turn on each other in California US House fight ...

What was once a political kinship forged around the values of the Reagan revolution has deteriorated into a nasty rivalry in a state where Republicans can scarcely afford it.

Democrats are pursuing a string of Republican-held House seats in California, four of them partially or entirely in Orange County. But in the 48th District, Rohrabacher also is fighting off one of his own.

In a worst-case scenario, the intraparty feud could cost the GOP a seat in a year when the balance of power in Congress might hinge on a handful of California races. ...

Part of the uncertainty in the race comes from a crowded field in the June 5 election combined with California's so-called jungle primary system, in which all candidates are listed on a single ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to a November runoff, regardless of party affiliation. ...

The rift has divided Republicans in Orange County, once considered a GOP fortress where Democrats have been making inroads. Rohrabacher's district, which includes wealthy seaside enclaves like Newport Beach as well as inland suburbs, is among seven in California held by Republicans but carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race, making them targets this year. ...

Democrats have their own problems: too many candidates, which could water down the party's chances.

Several Democrats are among the top spenders in the race, including businessman Harley Rouda, who's backed by the party's campaign arm in the House, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But Neuroscientist Hans Keirstead snagged the endorsement from the state Democratic Party.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#2

Post by raicha » Mon May 28, 2018 2:23 pm

Orange County voter here. I HATE the top two primary system, which has introduced more corrupt gamesmanship than existed already. (See, for example, Gavin Newsom's ad that appears to endorse Republican John Cox.)

I've got a Republican Congressman, Royce, who is not running again. But the Dem choices seem pretty weak to me. And there are too many of them.

As for Rohrbacher, he is his own worst enemy right now after saying it's really okay not to sell your house to someone who is LBGTQ.

Weird state, weirder county, but I wouldn't live anywhere else.

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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#3

Post by bob » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:32 am

Rohrabacher easily took the top spot.

There's a logjam for second place:
Harley Rouda (D) 18,182 17.3%
Hans Keirstead (D) 18,109 17.2%
Scott Baugh (R) 16,963 16.1%
Baugh needs only around 1200 votes to jump to second, but I doubt the absentee ballots will help him. So it is doubtful that the Democrats will be locked out of this race.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#4

Post by ObjectiveDoubter » Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:44 am

Can another Californian remind me what the reform was we were trying to achieve with the jungle primary? I voted against it, because I envisioned exactly what has happened. But it was allegedly reform. How?

If the absentee ballots don't disappoint and Rouda pulls it out, I think Comrade Surfer Boy Dana (who brought us the joys of the Taliban pre 9/11) is gone in November. Wouldn't that be something!

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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#5

Post by bob » Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:50 am

ObjectiveDoubter wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:44 am
Can another Californian remind me what the reform was we were trying to achieve with the jungle primary? I voted against it, because I envisioned exactly what has happened. But it was allegedly reform. How?
"In theory," Prop 14 was meant to encourage more moderate candidates (because, as rational actors, candidates will try to appeal to most number of enlightened voters possible).

The reality is that it was a Republican pipe dream, and placed on the ballot in exchange for other political favors.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#6

Post by vic » Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:58 am

ObjectiveDoubter wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:44 am
Can another Californian remind me what the reform was we were trying to achieve with the jungle primary? I voted against it, because I envisioned exactly what has happened. But it was allegedly reform. How?

If the absentee ballots don't disappoint and Rouda pulls it out, I think Comrade Surfer Boy Dana (who brought us the joys of the Taliban pre 9/11) is gone in November. Wouldn't that be something!
IIRC, the claim was that by including all voters, it would give us candidates who weren't appealing to the extreme left or right. And it would give a voice in the primary to the increasing number of voters who choose "No Party".

I can't find any contemporary references right now, but I think there was also quiet belief by Republicans that this would help them due to the better control the "party" has over candidates; that what was feared this year would happen with large numbers of candidates identifying themselves as Democrats would split the vote and let two Republicans win the primary.

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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#7

Post by Addie » Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:32 am

The Hill
Poll: Dem challenger narrowly leads 30-year incumbent Rohrabacher

Democratic nominee Harley Rouda narrowly leads Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) in one of California’s most competitive House races this cycle, according to a new poll.

A Monmouth University Poll released Tuesday found Rouda ahead of Rohrabacher by 3 points, 46 to 43 percent, among all potential voters. Rouda’s small lead is within the survey’s margin of error, of 4.9 percentage points.

Rouda still maintains a slight edge when using different likely voter models. Rouda leads Rohrabacher, 47 to 45 percent, when using a historical midterm model. And Rouda extends his lead to 4 points when turnout is surging in Democratic precincts.

Rohrabacher holds a double-digit lead among white voters without a college degree. But the two candidates are nearly tied among college educated white voters. Rouda has a 27-point lead over Rohrabacher among Asian, Latino and black voters. ...

Rohrabacher, who's considered one of the most pro-Russia members of Congress, is facing his toughest reelection race to date. He's won reelection by double-digits, but the change in demographics has made his district more favorable for Democrats.

Democrats feel emboldened about the district since Hillary Clinton won it by a little more than a point in 2016. Rouda, who had the support of national Democrats, eked out a tough primary race against Democrat Hans Keirstead for a second spot on the November ballot.
Harley for Congress

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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#8

Post by Addie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:48 pm

Cross-posting

Rolling Stone
Documents Reveal Successful Cyberattack in California Congressional Race

WASHINGTON — FBI agents in California and Washington, D.C., have investigated a series of cyberattacks over the past year that targeted a Democratic opponent of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA). Rohrabacher is a 15-term incumbent who is widely seen as the most pro-Russia and pro-Putin member of Congress and is a staunch supporter of President Trump.

The hacking attempts and the FBI’s involvement are described in dozens of emails and forensic records obtained by Rolling Stone.

The target of these attacks, Dr. Hans Keirstead, a stem-cell scientist and the CEO of a biomedical research company, finished third in California’s nonpartisan “top-two” primary on June 5th, falling 125 votes short of advancing to the general election in one of the narrowest margins of any congressional primary this year. He has since endorsed Harley Rouda, the Democrat who finished in second place and will face Rohrabacher in the November election.

Cybersecurity experts say that it’s nearly impossible to identify who was behind the hacks without the help of law enforcement or high-priced private cybersecurity firms that collect their own threat data. These experts speculate that the hackers could have been one of many actors: a nation-state (such as Russia), organized crime, so-called e-crime or a hacktivist with a specific agenda. The FBI did not respond to requests for comment on its involvement or any findings.

Kyle Quinn-Quesada, who was Keirstead’s campaign manager, tells Rolling Stone that the campaign is now going public about the attacks for the sake of voter awareness. “It is clear from speaking with campaign professionals around the country that the sustained attacks the Keirstead for Congress campaign faced were not unique but have become the new normal for political campaigns in 2018,” Quinn-Quesada says. He added that the Keirstead campaign did not believe the cyberattacks had an effect on the primary election results.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#9

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:26 pm

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-p ... story.html

(Extra paras cuz Dana Rohrabacher.)
Republicans face big risks in contested California races as Democrats fight for control of the House

There, longtime Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa and his Democratic challenger, Harley Rouda, are in a dead heat, each with 48%. Voters also split almost evenly on whether they approve of Trump.

As in the 49th District, college-educated white voters and Latinos back the Democrat, but they make up a slightly smaller share of the electorate: 39% of likely voters in the 48th District are whites with college degrees, and about 1 in 10 are Latino, the poll found.

Rohrabacher also benefits from significant support among Asian Americans, who make up about 1 in 8 of the likely voters. Elsewhere in California, Asian Americans lean heavily toward the Democrats, but this district includes a large, conservative Vietnamese population. Asian American voters overall divide almost equally between Rohrabacher and Rouda, the poll found.

Among whites without a college degree — the heart of Trump’s voting base — Rohrabacher leads by nearly 20 points, 58% to 39%, almost twice the size of the Republican’s margin with that group in the 49th District. Women support the Democrat, but men back the Republican by an almost equal margin.

Latino voters in the district were slightly less likely than others to say they viewed this election as more important than usual. That could hold down the Democratic vote.

Rohrabacher, however, has been dogged by controversy over his friendliness to people connected with Russia’s government. Unsurprisingly, an overwhelming share of Democrats said his contacts with Russian officials made them less likely to vote for Rohrabacher. So did 10% of registered Republicans. Among the small number of undecided voters, 45% said the Russia issue made them less likely to vote for him.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018; Top-2 Primary, June 5

#10

Post by bob » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:31 pm

Dana Rohrabacher is fighting for our economy and our national security. Please donate to his campaign and volunteer for his campaign. Come to see Ollie North and Dana on October 13. People who walk the district for Dana go to Ollie North event for free
:twisted: http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/dana-rohrab ... ctober-13/ :twisted:

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(538 presently gives Rohrabacher a 43% chance of retaining his seat.)
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Re: California 48th CD 2018

#11

Post by Dan1100 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:32 am

Trouble for Comrade Rohrabacher

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/gop-ya ... collapses/
(all the paragraphs are 1 sentence long, so blew off 4 paragraph rule :confused: )
GOP yanks funding for ‘Putin’s favorite congressman’ Rohrabacher as campaign collapses

he Republican Party’s top funding group for congressional races will not spend money to support two Orange County Republicans.

The Congressional Leadership Fund is responsible for gathering and dispersing multi-million-dollar checks from the GOP’s biggest donors and will spend $12 million on cable television ads in Southern California.

However, Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters from suburban Orange County will not get any ad buys on their behalf, the Los Angles Times reports.

Rohrabacher is famous for his pro-Russian views and has been called “Putin’s favorite congressman.”

As the GOP struggles with how to spend its money, suburban California Republicans are at great risk, the paper reports, “because of the state’s exorbitant advertising costs.”

“Money saved in the costly Los Angeles media market can be spread over several contests in other states that may be considered more winnable,” the Times writes.

A veteran Republican strategist said the cuts mean the party is worried about keeping a majority.

“When you’re these national committees and you’ve got problems in the suburbs of Dallas, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, you’ve got to start making decisions on where you can most effectively spend,” he said.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018

#12

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:07 am

Who needs that? He's got the wholehearted support of Dr Orly Taitz Esq and her legions of followers, slam dunk win for Dana. Orly should stake her reputation on it.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018

#13

Post by Foggy » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:02 am

She should, because she'd lose, and if anyone in this great land of ours needs to lose her reputation, she's it. :lol:
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Re: California 48th CD 2018

#14

Post by Lani » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:29 am

With 90.1% in, Harley Rouda 86,588 50.65 %, Dana Rohrabacher 84,380 49.35%.
:pray:
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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#15

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:30 am

New York Times
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Harley Rouda Democrat 91,750 50.7%
Dana Rohrabacher* Republican 89,068 49.3

180,818 votes, 100% reporting (395 of 395 precincts)

* Incumbent

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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#16

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:43 am

:mbounce:
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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#17

Post by Foggy » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:06 am

So I reckon Rohrabacher will now retire to his dacha outside Moscow? :mrgreen:
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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#18

Post by Azastan » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:30 am

Foggy wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:06 am
So I reckon Rohrabacher will now retire to his dacha outside Moscow? :mrgreen:
The NRA needs to find someone willing to do the heavy lifting in Moscow. Dana will probably fit right in.

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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#19

Post by Orlylicious » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:06 am

Yes, he'll be working closely with Steven Seagal, Special Representative for Russia-US Cultural Links, Cultural and Historical Heritage (that's the actual title!) :lol:
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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#20

Post by bob » Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:19 pm

AP calls race for Rouda. Also:
Democrats had targeted seven GOP-held House districts in California this year that were carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, including Rohrabacher’s 48th. They’ve now won three of those seats, with the potential to pick up three more and pad their new majority in the House.

Democrat Katie Porter is inching closer to Republican U.S. Rep. Mimi Walters in Orange County’s 45th District. In the nearby 39th District held by retiring GOP Rep. Ed Royce his protege, Republican Young Kim, sees her lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros tightening.

In central California’s farm belt, Democrat Josh Harder grabbed a nearly 2-point lead after a vote count update Friday after trailing Rep. Jeff Denham in the 10th District.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#21

Post by Dan1100 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:51 pm

Dana is a little miffed.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1068637056690266114
Manu Raju Verified account @mkraju

I asked Dana Rohrabacher if he met w/Mueller team, and he said he hadn't -- and then fumed.

"Obviously all the news stories you guys have been printing have been bogus and based on political bullshit...Have any of your stories ever used the words, Putin's favorite congressman?”
2:45 PM - 30 Nov 2018

Manu Raju ‏Verified account @mkraju
1m1 minute ago


And then he yelled repeatedly: “Get lost buddy!" Of course, Rohrabacher met with Assange and was interviewed by both House and Senate Intel as part of their Russia probes.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#22

Post by Notorial Dissent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:10 pm

I suppose it is just too much to hope that Dana will get a visit from the FBI and an opportunity to not perjure himself in front of a grand jury, but I can hope.
The fact that you sincerely and wholeheartedly believe that the “Law of Gravity” is unconstitutional and a violation of your sovereign rights, does not absolve you of adherence to it.

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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#23

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:25 pm

Notorial Dissent wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:10 pm
I suppose it is just too much to hope that Dana will get a visit from the FBI and an opportunity to not perjure himself in front of a grand jury, but I can hope.
Hope away! Adam Schiff is from California and may have a subpoena for Dana.
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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#24

Post by Notorial Dissent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:56 pm

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:25 pm
Notorial Dissent wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:10 pm
I suppose it is just too much to hope that Dana will get a visit from the FBI and an opportunity to not perjure himself in front of a grand jury, but I can hope.
Hope away! Adam Schiff is from California and may have a subpoena for Dana.
I certainly think he has more than enough to answer for, maybe he will.
The fact that you sincerely and wholeheartedly believe that the “Law of Gravity” is unconstitutional and a violation of your sovereign rights, does not absolve you of adherence to it.

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Re: California 48th CD 2018 - (D) Win

#25

Post by RVInit » Fri Nov 30, 2018 7:46 pm

It wouldn't bother me one bit if Rohrabacher has done anything that is against the law and actually ends up paying the price for it.
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