Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#26

Post by fierceredpanda »

Turtle wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:16 pm
Volkonski wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:08 am
Will Ryan stay on as Speaker until January? If not we could get someone worse. :?
Usually it happens sooner rather than later. It's very possible the Trump people will bring in someone who isn't in the House. Like Ivanka.
Not a chance. If Ryan wants to stand down, that's another matter, but there's no indication he intends to. The knives are out between Steve Scalise ("I got shot by a madman with an AR-15 and still love me some guns!") and Kevin McCarthy ("Remember when I was considered too moderate for the right wing of the party to be speaker three years ago? Now I'm a REAL FISCAL CONSERVATIVE!"), but other than those two, there's basically no one who can unify the conference enough to get a majority for the speakership, and a lot of the people with enough heft to contend are currently heading for the exits. Besides - it's an election year. Lots of these guys' districts are more competetive than they ought to be, and "Congressman So-and-So is too busy running for Speaker of a legislative body with a 15% approval rating to bother coming home to campaign for your vote" is a bad look right now. Ryan will be a lame duck until January 2019.
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#27

Post by Chilidog »

I wonder if John Boehner is lighting up a fatty right now.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#28

Post by Dolly »

MN-Skeptic wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:40 pm
If you need a score card as to who in Congress is not running for re-election, check out Ballotpedia's List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2018. It is current as of today, including both Paul Ryan and Dennis Ross (Rep from Florida) who each made announcements today. Some folks are not running for re-election because they are running for a different office. All that information can be found on that web page.
Thank you for that info. :bighug:
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#29

Post by Notorial Dissent »

One professional liar getting assurances from another one, that was a serious comment right????
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#30

Post by bob »

This article says that, if Ryan stays until January, he gets a better pension. (Doubly if he stays as speaker.)
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#31

Post by DejaMoo »

bob wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:25 am
This article says that, if Ryan stays until January, he gets a better pension. (Doubly if he stays as speaker.)
Ryan has spent his entire life suckin' off the gov't teat while doing his damnedest to ensure that people worse off than him couldn't have the same opportunities to do so.
I've heard this bull before.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#32

Post by Kendra »

Maddow has a good rundown on Ryan on last night's show.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#33

Post by DejaMoo »

Per Randy Bryce, the Democrat running for Ryan's seat, there's talk that Reince Priebus may run as the WI GOP's candidate to replace Ryan. They need a big name and a more reputable candidate, since the strongest Republican candidate for it right now is such a right-wing extremist and Jew hater, all the other white supremacists have backed away from him.
I've heard this bull before.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#34

Post by fierceredpanda »

DejaMoo wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:36 am
Per Randy Bryce, the Democrat running for Ryan's seat, there's talk that Reince Priebus may run as the WI GOP's candidate to replace Ryan. They need a big name and a more reputable candidate, since the strongest Republican candidate for it right now is such a right-wing extremist and Jew hater, all the other white supremacists have backed away from him.
Seriously doubt it. Priebus is making high-six- or low-seven-figures as Managing Partner at the Washington, D.C. office of Michael Best & Friedrich, a Milwaukee-based law firm with deep Republican connections (another partner is Steve Biskupic, former US Attorney for the Eastern District of Wisconsin and a professor of mine at Marquette Law, who is the senior outside attorney to Governor Walker). He'll be raking in cash doing lobbying work. No way does he want to run for a Congressional seat back in Wisconsin.

The reason Bryce is making these noises is because Ryan's decision to retire is actually a bad thing for Bryce in one respect. Bryce has managed to raise a tremendous amount of money thus far, entirely because he is, or rather was, running against the bogeyman, Paul Ryan. Bryce raised $2.1 million last quarter. However, Bryce's burn rate is equally mind-boggling. He needs to keep raising piles of cash because he's spending piles of cash. No serious opponent means no motivation for donors to chip in. So he's dangling the prospect of Priebus entering the race to give people a reason to contribute.

Full disclosure: As someone who is doing political consulting elsewhere in Wisconsin, I wouldn't mind the spotlight being off Bryce for a while so other candidates could have a chance to raise some money, please. I continue to hold to my policy of not publicly disclosing here for which candidate or candidates I am working, but anyone who wants to know so they can help take back the House is free to message me and ask.
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#35

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer »

FRP-
Was Randy Bryce 's campaign a factor in Ryan's retirement?

TRL
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#36

Post by BrianH »

DejaMoo wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:36 am
Per Randy Bryce, the Democrat running for Ryan's seat, there's talk that Reince Priebus may run as the WI GOP's candidate to replace Ryan. They need a big name and a more reputable candidate, since the strongest Republican candidate for it right now is such a right-wing extremist and Jew hater, all the other white supremacists have backed away from him.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#37

Post by fierceredpanda »

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:29 am
FRP-
Was Randy Bryce 's campaign a factor in Ryan's retirement?

TRL
Well, I'm not Paul Ryan, so I can't be certain. I'm sure facing a serious opponent for the first time in a while entered into Ryan's thinking. However, I think the impending loss of his majority and the certainty that he would be ousted as Speaker immediately thereafter played a much larger role. It's an uncontrollable conference under the best of circumstances, which these are not. A lot of Ryan's allies (moderates and committee chairs) are either retiring, resigning, or in the most serious danger of being voted out in November, while the ones who have been biding their time to topple Ryan - the Freedom Caucus types - aren't going anywhere. Better to throw in the towel now, on his own terms, than be the victim of a palace coup in a few months time. That's my analysis of his thinking.

Bryce has tons of money, but Ryan was always going to have more. And based on the Supreme Court race two weeks ago, I had doubts about Bryce's ability to actually win the seat, since the 1st Congressional District went against Dallet (the liberal candidate). In contrast, one district currently held by a Republican (the 8th) went for Dallet 53-47. So it was kind of an open question how much danger Ryan was actually in.

Mostly, his retirement is a tremendous blow to Republican fundraising. Ryan was hands-down the best fundraiser in the House. A lot of big donors will probably decide the House is a lost cause and focus on the Senate. That means problems for both individual candidates and the NRCC.
"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton


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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#38

Post by RVInit »

Just thought I would drop this here.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#39

Post by Chilidog »

Is Paul Ryan setting himself up to be "President Ryan?"

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#40

Post by Turtle »

Chilidog wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:26 pm
Is Paul Ryan setting himself up to be "President Ryan?"
I think that ship sailed when he agreed to run for Speaker. That job has become so politically toxic nowadays because they either have to hold together different factions of their own party or move to the center to get votes from the other party and get called a sellout.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#41

Post by Chilidog »

Turtle wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:52 pm
Chilidog wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:26 pm
Is Paul Ryan setting himself up to be "President Ryan?"
I think that ship sailed when he agreed to run for Speaker. That job has become so politically toxic nowadays because they either have to hold together different factions of their own party or move to the center to get votes from the other party and get called a sellout.
My thought is that he is hoping both Pence and Trump get impeached.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#42

Post by Foggy »

All the more reason why his explanation makes no sense.

He had a decent chance of being re-elected.

I see about a 50% chance that the Republicans keep the House.

... and if Trump and Pence are impeached, then he'd be POTUS.

So he quits to spend time with his kids?

I call bullshit. :fingerwag: He's being forced out behind the scenes. :thumbs:
For more information, read it again.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#43

Post by fierceredpanda »

Foggy wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:49 pm
All the more reason why his explanation makes no sense.

He had a decent chance of being re-elected.

I see about a 50% chance that the Republicans keep the House.
Respectfully, the signals from Republican insiders are all indicative of their belief that the House is a lost cause barring a miracle.
... and if Trump and Pence are impeached, then he'd be POTUS.

So he quits to spend time with his kids?

I call bullshit. :fingerwag: He's being forced out behind the scenes. :thumbs:
Pence isn't going to be impeached. I say again: Pence is not going to be impeached. What indication has anyone seen that he is even under investigation? Seriously, there needs to be an evaluation around here of what is and what is not a reasonable expectation of what is going to happen.

Ryan was going to be forced out after they lose the House in November anyway, so why not pull the "you can't fire me, I quit!" routine instead? It's just that simple.
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#44

Post by Turtle »

Pence's exposure is related to his role on the transition team. But he seems to listen to counsel and does not incriminate himself on live TV or social media so he should be OK in this.

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#45

Post by fierceredpanda »

Turtle wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:41 am
Pence's exposure is related to his role on the transition team. But he seems to listen to counsel and does not incriminate himself on live TV or social media so he should be OK in this.
More pragmatically, Pence simply has to be considered untouchable in any forthcoming impeachment proceedings for the obvious reason that a potential 2019 Democratic House of Representatives trying to oust both the President and Vice President simultaneously and install Speaker Pelosi (or whoever ends up in the chair) as President would be seen in many quarters - and for good reason - as a coup d'etat. Mueller understands, I am sure, the political implications of whatever he reports and recommends, and he will not make himself a party to such a de facto overthrow of a democratically-elected administration, because to do so would destroy the credibility of his investigation that he has worked very hard to foster in the first place.
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#46

Post by RVInit »

fierceredpanda wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:59 am
Turtle wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:41 am
Pence's exposure is related to his role on the transition team. But he seems to listen to counsel and does not incriminate himself on live TV or social media so he should be OK in this.
More pragmatically, Pence simply has to be considered untouchable in any forthcoming impeachment proceedings for the obvious reason that a potential 2019 Democratic House of Representatives trying to oust both the President and Vice President simultaneously and install Speaker Pelosi (or whoever ends up in the chair) as President would be seen in many quarters - and for good reason) as a coup d'etat. Mueller understands, I am sure, the political implications of whatever he reports and recommends, and he will not make himself a party to such a de facto overthrow of a democratically-elected administration, because to do so would destroy the credibility of his investigation that he has worked very hard to foster in the first place.
:yeah:
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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#47

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

So Trump quits or gets impeached and convicted and Pence becomes POTUS. Intriguing question: whom does he nominate as the new Veep? My guess is in the spoiler. Guess before you peek. Remember, the new Veep would have to be approved by both House and Senate.
ABBC3_SPOILER_SHOW

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#48

Post by Slim Cognito »

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:43 am
So Trump quits or gets impeached and convicted and Pence becomes POTUS. Intriguing question: whom does he nominate as the new Veep? My guess is in the spoiler. Guess before you peek. Remember, the new Veep would have to be approved by both House and Senate.
ABBC3_SPOILER_SHOW
ABBC3_SPOILER_SHOW
ImageImageImage x4

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#49

Post by Jim »

Slim Cognito wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:00 am
Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:43 am
So Trump quits or gets impeached and convicted and Pence becomes POTUS. Intriguing question: whom does he nominate as the new Veep? My guess is in the spoiler. Guess before you peek. Remember, the new Veep would have to be approved by both House and Senate.
ABBC3_SPOILER_SHOW
ABBC3_SPOILER_SHOW
Oh come on...we're talking Pence!
ABBC3_SPOILER_SHOW

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Re: BREAKING - Paul Ryan headed for the exits ...

#50

Post by fierceredpanda »

I'll go along with this hypothetical to say that, assuming this all happens (it won't) and the Democrats control the House, they should invoke the Gorsuch precedent and refuse to bring a VP nomination to the floor of the House at all. The only way to circumvent that would be via a discharge petition signed by a majority of members. I suppose there could be enough wimps in the Democratic caucus to undermine that strategy, but I would love to see Republicans hoist on that particular petard.
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